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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


The Blob

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47 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

This looks suspiciously like the upper Plains to me.  I wouldn't consider Wyoming or Montana anywhere near the midwest.

You are correct. It’s literally the coldest temps I could find anywhere on the entire run. Midwest was even warmer.🤷🏼‍♀️

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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This is interesting.

Trend in annual days with 1000+ CAPE since 1979. Can see the expanding drought influence across the intermountain west.

87E0C867-FC0A-4B8F-8F20-61E3213A1493.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is interesting.

Trend in annual days with 1000+ CAPE since 1979. Can see the expanding drought influence across the intermountain west.

87E0C867-FC0A-4B8F-8F20-61E3213A1493.jpeg

Interesting that high CAPE frequency has actually increased here (specifically the Bozeman area it appears) while surrounded by areas of decreased frequency.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 hour ago, Kayla said:

You are correct. It’s literally the coldest temps I could find anywhere on the entire run. Midwest was even warmer.🤷🏼‍♀️

You are taking that post way too literally.   The reference he made was to the end of the ECMWF run being cold in the Midwest and I assume he only saw this map.   I think the point was regarding a pattern change... which won't happen anyway.   It will end up way west.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3134400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

This is interesting.

Trend in annual days with 1000+ CAPE since 1979. Can see the expanding drought influence across the intermountain west.

87E0C867-FC0A-4B8F-8F20-61E3213A1493.jpeg

+PNA regime of the last decade supports higher ridge amplification during the warm season, meaning deeper southerly moisture advection. This makes sense, and is pretty much the only positive note I would add. 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2020 all had great thunderstorm events. Other years in that time span included big storms too but those six years had the best.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 hours ago, Tyler Mode said:

This looks suspiciously like the upper Plains to me.  I wouldn't consider Wyoming or Montana anywhere near the midwest.

I probably should have been more specific. @Kayla I was referring to Dakotas and Minnesota specifically. That area recently just warmed up massively after being stuck in abnormal cold for a long time - end of the Euro showed cold returning. Although calling it winterlike is an exaggeration given what winters are normally like there.

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image.png

Just your casual midday thumping of snow in Denver on May 20th.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

It's happened a few times before. Latest big dump of snow is 5/29/75, when the airport measured almost 6".

high plains go wild this time of year.

gfs has pueblo at 80°F at 10am that same day. drops to the 40s in under six hours.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

You are taking that post way too literally.   The reference he made was to the end of the ECMWF run being cold in the Midwest and I assume he only saw this map.   I think the point was regarding a pattern change... which won't happen anyway.   It will end up way west.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3134400.png

There is a potent CCKW crossing the Pacific, so there could be a temporary bump eastward. Integral of AAM integral peaks around May 18th or 19th before the next -dAAMT and retrogression westward.

Likely won’t make it out here, though. The W-Atlantic ridge is bulking up for the summer and will probably eat it for lunch.

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44 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

+PNA regime of the last decade supports higher ridge amplification during the warm season, meaning deeper southerly moisture advection. This makes sense, and is pretty much the only positive note I would add. 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2020 all had great thunderstorm events. Other years in that time span included big storms too but those six years had the best.

Interesting. Out here it’s just the ever-strengthening Bermuda High pumping in loads of gulf moisture.

I bet 90% of those extra CAPE days are capped/unrealized. Lol

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interesting. Out here it’s just the ever-strengthening Bermuda High pumping in loads of gulf moisture.

I bet 100% of those extra CAPE days are capped/unrealized. Lol

ftfy lol

august 2020 had a day where it got really hot, then some weak midlevel storms rolled in, moistening the lower levels without any airmass change. it was like a 83/72 spread at 9pm, with sfc cape around 2500j/kg. Most humid weather I've ever felt here by a wide margin. of course an elevated EML from SoCal capped it to hell and back 😭

The day a sfc parcel of 83/72 properly convects in seattle will be the day pigs start flying... just an unfortunate truth of living in the westside PNW

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

ftfy lol

august 2020 had a day where it got really hot, then some weak midlevel storms rolled in, moistening the lower levels without any airmass change. it was like a 83/72 spread at 9pm, with sfc cape around 2500j/kg. Most humid weather I've ever felt here by a wide margin. of course an elevated EML from SoCal capped it to hell and back 😭

The day a sfc parcel of 83/72 properly convects in seattle will be the day pigs start flying... just an unfortunate truth of living in the westside PNW

That blows dude. Funny those same EMLS are what trigger our severe weather.

Need a lot of heating to pop them, but if/when they do, convection erupts like a volcanic plume.

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Convection breaking the cap on EML days always provides good visuals as well.

Some pics I’ve taken over the last few years. The storm in the last image was over 55,000 feet tall and broke into the stratosphere.

B9386D76-6135-4523-9E11-B00E7E98B16D.jpeg2F311367-6604-4864-978C-96A8F0502346.jpegE026B6D5-300A-4B3D-95B6-3AFD32B95E91.jpeg

 

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19 minutes ago, Phil said:

Convection breaking the cap on EML days always provides good visuals as well.

Some pics I’ve taken over the last few years. The storm in the last image was over 55,000 feet tall and broke into the stratosphere.

B9386D76-6135-4523-9E11-B00E7E98B16D.jpeg2F311367-6604-4864-978C-96A8F0502346.jpegE026B6D5-300A-4B3D-95B6-3AFD32B95E91.jpeg

 

I'm sure those pictures don't nearly do the scale justice. In NOLA just after landing at the airport, there was a fairly distant but tall storm. Took up a solid portion of the sky yet was shrouded in humid haze nearly 50 miles away. That sense of scale for a cloud to take up was enormous, I'll never forget it. Very ominous.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Very confused at the moment.  Radar is showing it's raining but it's bone dry outside.  Checked some WSDOT traffic cameras... I see no rain. From Bellingham to Olympia, and out to the Peninsula... everything looks dry.  Checked some cameras in Portland and Salem, also dry. What is going on? How can it be so wrong?

 

Screen Shot 2022-05-11 at 11.37.31 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-05-11 at 11.37.45 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-05-11 at 11.37.53 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-05-11 at 11.38.00 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-05-11 at 11.42.22 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-05-11 at 11.45.29 PM.png

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2 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Very confused at the moment.  Radar is showing it's raining but it's bone dry outside.  Checked some WSDOT traffic cameras... I see no rain. From Belling to Olympia, and out to the Peninsula... everything looks dry.  Checked some cameras in Portland and Salem, also dry. What is going on?

 

 

Screen Shot 2022-05-11 at 11.37.31 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-05-11 at 11.37.45 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-05-11 at 11.37.53 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-05-11 at 11.38.00 PM.png

St Patricks Day Rainbow GIF by TipsyElves.com

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27 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm sure those pictures don't nearly do the scale justice. In NOLA just after landing at the airport, there was a fairly distant but tall storm. Took up a solid portion of the sky yet was shrouded in humid haze nearly 50 miles away. That sense of scale for a cloud to take up was enormous, I'll never forget it. Very ominous.

Oh yeah, it never does. The photos are always disappointing. 

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SEA has been below normal on 40 out of the last 42 days.

Currently running at -5.5 departure for May and is at 266% of normal rain month to date.    Per the ECMWF... there will be rain on 9 of the next 10 days and every day will be colder than normal.   

We might have been due... but there is nothing even close to normal about this spring based on climo despite a few people's memories of rain in the spring when they were kids.   

A straight up climo spring next year would be a massive improvement... and a major let down for those who think this is just normal.   👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Euro shows 1.7” of rain here in the next week. Over 2” in the next 10 days. Definitely think it’s possible we go over 4” of rain this month…which is even more than we saw in April (3.63”) 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA has been below normal on 40 out of the last 42 days.

Currently running at -5.5 departure for May and is at 266% of normal rain month to date.    Per the ECMWF... there will be rain on 9 of the next 10 days and every day will be colder than normal.   

We might have been due... but there is nothing even close to normal about this spring based on climo despite a few people's memories of rain in the spring when they were kids.   

A straight up climo spring next year would be a massive improvement... and a major let down for those who think this is just normal.   👍

That’s what an out-of-season strengthening La Niña can do.

At least you’ll have the “overdue cold spring/summer” monkey off your back after this year.

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s what an out-of-season strengthening La Niña can do.

At least you’ll have the “overdue cold spring/summer” monkey off your back after this year.

Even 1975 had a week of dry weather and temps in the 70s here at the end of May and again during the second week of June.   In 1988 we had a really good stretch through the middle of May and a long 2-week stretch in during the middle of June.   It would be pretty nice to get similar breaks this year... but seems unlikely at this point. 

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s what an out-of-season strengthening La Niña can do.

At least you’ll have the “overdue cold spring/summer” monkey off your back after this year.

We will see about the cold summer part. I do think this summer will be different than most of the last 10 years but you never really know. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We will see about the cold summer part. I do think this summer will be different than most of the last 10 years but you never really know. 

I would bet a nice sum of money that this summer will not be warmer than normal.     We are just in a cold cycle right now.   That does not mean it will be raining and dreary all summer... but to end up warmer than normal for JJA seems very unlikely.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would bet a nice sum of money that this summer will not be warmer than normal.  We are just in a cold cycle right now. That does not mean it will be raining and dreary all summer... but to end up warmer than normal for JJA seems very unlikely.

Jim? 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Jim? 

No... Tim.   Its a similar name so I can see why you got it confused.   😃

But its hard to deny the reality right now that its almost impossible to get even a normal day in terms of temperature.    And there is no sign of that changing.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

No... Tim.   Its a similar name so I can see why you got it confused.   😃

But its hard to deny the reality right now that its almost impossible to get even a normal day in terms of temperature.    And there is no sign of that changing.

Yeah overall we’ve leaned below normal over the last 5 months…with March being the only exception. Even that month wasn’t really a torch. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

anomimage.pl?wrc30dTvdep.png

Who's in the purple area in Oregon?

No one.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Even 1975 had a week of dry weather and temps in the 70s here at the end of May and again during the second week of June.   In 1988 we had a really good stretch through the middle of May and a long 2-week stretch in during the middle of June.   It would be pretty nice to get similar breaks this year... but seems unlikely at this point. 

It would have been pretty nice to not have hit 115 last year... but seems unlikely at this point.

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