May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Mt Spokane still rocking a Summit snowcap

 

 

Memorial Day weekend 2011 at Mt. Spokane

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Memorial Day weekend 2011 at Mt. Spokane

gunna get close, more snow expected up there tonight and tomorrow

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Would be nice to not have one this year. Hopefully the wetter spring will help. Curious to know what the conditions in Cal is like though. 

that's what i'm afraid of, we'll still get the CA smoke, hopefully not as bad though

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z EURO came in WET. 4.67" here in the next 10 days. 

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z EURO came in WET. 4.67" here in the next 10 days. 

Euro QPF values are generally too high in the valley floor in spring. Usually wait until NAM range to get a more accurate picture. Is it more accurate in your location?

[Cloud]

Looks wet over the next 10 days. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Euro QPF values are generally too high in the valley floor in spring. Usually wait until NAM range to get a more accurate picture. Is it more accurate in your location?

They seem pretty accurate here. If anything so far this month we have over achieved on these numbers, or they have been pretty on track. 6.83" this month, compared to about 2.6" at SLE, so overall it probably overdoes it a little for the valley and is pretty close for up here. 

[Omegaraptor]

30 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Or at least something that can keep the jet suppressed this next winter. I'm thinking it'll be slamming into northern California with Arctic surface lows regularly coming inland around Gold Beach or so and sliding ENE towards northern Klamath County at a snail's pace with extensive areas of frontogenesis and deformation banding to the north of there. Sub-freezing highs down to SW Oregon at times during next winter too.

Putting in the call.

Get a pattern like that going for a while, then we finally get our long-awaited regionwide Arctic blast riding down both sides of the Cascades and Sierra all the way to the Mojave Desert. Winter perfection.

[Phishy Wx]

31 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Or at least something that can keep the jet suppressed this next winter. I'm thinking it'll be slamming into northern California with Arctic surface lows regularly coming inland around Gold Beach or so and sliding ENE towards northern Klamath County at a snail's pace with extensive areas of frontogenesis and deformation banding to the north of there. Sub-freezing highs down to SW Oregon at times during next winter too.

Putting in the call.

Maybe that volcano is turbo boosting us a Super Nina this fall/winter

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We've been talking about 1955-56, but maybe 1861-62 is on the table? lol

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Maybe that volcano is turbo boosting us a Super Nina this fall/winter

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Regarding volcanic gases in the stratosphere. One of my volcanism class lectures said that once gases enter the stratosphere they spread around the globe fairly evenly, which would make the “affects one hemisphere more than the other” a myth. Would this be true or not?

Yes that’s correct.

[The Blob]

It was 37 in Troutdale this morning. It felt amazing since I feel like I've come down with something and was running fevers all night. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 39F with showers on May 13. I feel like I've gotten into a time machine. So much better than most of the past decade in this location.

[Omegaraptor]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We've been talking about 1955-56, but maybe 1861-62 is on the table? lol

Canoeing to class next year might be an interesting experience

[Phil]

1 hour ago, JW8 said:

Take THIS, all you pluviophiles for shaming us in the minority that want to enjoy boating season. How DARE we want to take advantage of the few months of sun/warmth we get per year . (Yes, I know this model is likely unreliable)

What model is that? Looks similar to the trash the CFS has been spitting out for months (and busting massively).

[FroYoBro]

Nice, calm day between weather systems today. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

would it mean more heat reflected back to space of water droplets?

No because it’s in gas form. No albedo effect. If anything it would have a net warming effect.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Fire season in BC generally comes down to the weather in june and then through the summer.  If June is warm and dry then it sets the stage for July and august.  

Might not be any smoke this summer.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

What model is that? Looks similar to the trash the CFS has been spitting out for months (and busting massively).

That is the CFS. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That is the CFS. 

Figures.

[Phil]

WOW EPS.

[Phishy Wx]

I think my Vaca to Charleston 5/27-6/5 was a pretty good call

[BLI snowman]

30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We've been talking about 1955-56, but maybe 1861-62 is on the table? lol

Nice summer in 1861 of course. Fort Vancouver had one day of 90+, a 95 on July 9.

Other highlights include a 48 degree high during a rainstorm on 5/28 after a 51 degree washout the previous day. Which looks like it would have been Memorial Day had it existed back then. Tim would not approve.

The summer of 1862 was absurdly cold, btw. The historic stuff that year was not simply confined to the winter. Fort Vancouver maxed out at 84 that year and didn't have their first 80 until July 22. With a total of five 80+ days that year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Nice summer in 1861 of course. Fort Vancouver had one day of 90+, a 95 on July 9.

Other highlights include a 48 degree high during a rainstorm on 5/28 after a 51 degree washout the previous day. Which looks like it would have been Memorial Day had it existed back then. Tim would not approve.

The summer of 1862 was absurdly cold, btw. The historic stuff that year was not simply confined to the winter. Fort Vancouver maxed out at 84 that year and didn't have their first 80 until July 22. With a total of five 80+ days that year.

WOW

[VancouverIslandSouth]

A few low temperature records set across BC yesterday. Only got up to 49F here in Victoria, though there hasn't been much rain. Even today with mostly sunny skies it's struggling to break 50F.

We're heading to Prague and Central Europe next month, I've got to say I never realized how much warmer their spring climate is are compared with ours. Daily temperatures are showing in the range of 70-80F for the next couple weeks and some of those days are rainy. Meanwhile we're struggling to reach their overnight lows during the day.

[BLI snowman]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

WOW EPS.

Have a feeling late May is going to give us something dramatic.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Nice summer in 1861 of course. Fort Vancouver had one day of 90+, a 95 on July 9.

Other highlights include a 48 degree high during a rainstorm on 5/28 after a 51 degree washout the previous day. Which looks like it would have been Memorial Day had it existed back then. Tim would not approve.

The summer of 1862 was absurdly cold, btw. The historic stuff that year was not simply confined to the winter. Fort Vancouver maxed out at 84 that year and didn't have their first 80 until July 22. With a total of five 80+ days that year.

It's been awhile, we're probably dew for a repeat.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

How often do you see this in late May? Kind of like that Aug 2015 storm -

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Then there was May 2018...When it just didn't rain at all...

https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=2018&month=5&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

[TacomaWaWx]

53 here. Some low and high clouds…nice day. 

[TacomaWaWx]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Then there was May 2018...When it just didn't rain at all...

https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=2018&month=5&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

Just 0.19” here that whole month. Meanwhile we’re probably going to go over 4” this year. This is the spring us cold/wet fans have been awaiting for a long time. 

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

Maybe that volcano is turbo boosting us a Super Nina this fall/winter

[MossMan]

42 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I think my Vaca to Charleston 5/27-6/5 was a pretty good call

I had the chance to go to on a last minute Cabo trip next week for a week but between work and my parents having some health challenges currently I need to stick close to home. 80’s and sun sounds amazing right now. Luckily my wife and kids will still get to enjoy the trip! 

[Omegaraptor]

I was in the “January 1950 is impossible in our modern climo” camp - but looking at what we’ve seen in the last couple years, I’m not so sure.

December 2013 and the -10 at Eugene proved that record winter cold is still possible in lowland PNW. We would have looked back on that in awe if it happened in the 1800s, but to pull it off in 21st century climo says a lot. We have seen several major snow events in different parts of the region just in the last few years too. February 2021 could have gone much, much better than it did for PNW and CA.

Clearly epic conditions like that are possible… but can we get them to last for a month plus like they did in 1950 and 1968-69? That’s the big question.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I was in the “January 1950 is impossible in our modern climo” camp - but looking at what we’ve seen in the last couple years, I’m not so sure.

December 2013 and the -10 at Eugene proved that record winter cold is still possible in lowland PNW. We would have looked back on that in awe if it happened in the 1800s, but to pull it off in 21st century climo says a lot. We have seen several major snow events in different parts of the region just in the last few years too. February 2021 could have gone much, much better than it did for PNW and CA.

Clearly epic conditions like that are possible… but can we get them to last for a month plus like they did in 1950 and 1968-69? That’s the big question.

I think something like January 1969 is more likely than January 1950. 

Now something like January 1957 is something I could realistically see happening.

For extreme winter cold, snowfall is a huge factor, that and clear skies. Two things that we have trouble lining up sometimes. 

Even an airmass like the one we saw in late February would have been able to put up some decent #'s if it had hit in the heart of winter. Get something like that with a little snow event going into it and suddenly we are looking at something truly meaningful. 

Edited May 13, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Phishy Wx]

41 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Have a feeling late May is going to give us something dramatic.

the elusive region wide Memorial Day snowstorm, mark it because I'll be on the east coast

[Phishy Wx]

or an midwest style severe wx outbreak

[SnowWillarrive]

24 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I was in the “January 1950 is impossible in our modern climo” camp - but looking at what we’ve seen in the last couple years, I’m not so sure.

December 2013 and the -10 at Eugene proved that record winter cold is still possible in lowland PNW. We would have looked back on that in awe if it happened in the 1800s, but to pull it off in 21st century climo says a lot. We have seen several major snow events in different parts of the region just in the last few years too. February 2021 could have gone much, much better than it did for PNW and CA.

Clearly epic conditions like that are possible… but can we get them to last for a month plus like they did in 1950 and 1968-69? That’s the big question.

This past December 2021 into early January was pretty memorable in Puget Sound. For a moment I thought it would last a month. The past few winters have been pretty good imho. 

[Doinko]

43 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think something like January 1969 is more likely than January 1950. 

Now something like January 1957 is something I could realistically see happening.

For extreme winter cold, snowfall is a huge factor, that and clear skies. Two things that we have trouble lining up sometimes. 

Even an airmass like the one we saw in late February would have been able to put up some decent #'s if it had hit in the heart of winter. Get something like that with a little snow event going into it and suddenly we are looking at something truly meaningful. 

Weren't the 850 mb temps around -10 at SLE in February? Too bad the wind kept PDX from getting any impressive temps, and no transition event.