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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


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2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Weren't the 850 mb temps around -10 at SLE in February? Too bad the wind kept PDX from getting any impressive temps, and no transition event.

Yes, I do believe SLE verified at just under -10C with the February event. Something they have not done in January since 1982. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think something like January 1969 is more likely than January 1950. 

Now something like January 1957 is something I could realistically see happening.

For extreme winter cold, snowfall is a huge factor, that and clear skies. Two things that we have trouble lining up sometimes. 

Even an airmass like the one we saw in late February would have been able to put up some decent #'s if it had hit in the heart of winter. Get something like that with a little snow event going into it and suddenly we are looking at something truly meaningful. 

A January 'Wine Dine 69 Part 2' would be a pretty good subtitle for ANALogs Gone Wild 2022-23.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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BTW - The last time Salem had a below average May was 2012... May has been pretty dry over the past decade, but it did have slightly above average rainfall in 2020. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12z EURO is showing 0.90" at SLE and 1.90" here with tonight's system.

18z GFS: 1.1" at SLE 1.2" here.

18z 3K NAM: 0.6" SLE: 1.69" here

 

 

 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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WOW

May be an image of map, sky and text that says 'HRRRv4 Init: 18Z13MAY2022 +[24] hr Valid Sat 18Z14MAY2022 Precipitation [inch] between18Z13MAY2022 8Z13MAY2022 18Z14MAY2022 MAX: 4.6 inch Sat 14:00 EDT 14MAY2022 0.9 0.8 0.9 6.5 0.8 5.5 1.3 4.5 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.4 2.2 2 1.8 1.2 1 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.25 NCEP HRRR [3-km] 2503x11550.0292x0.0273 grid 0.15 0.08 0.02 0.01 weathermodels.com'

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Anybody else like fried okra?

57B70F36-E61E-4E3E-AAEE-5F74A9A65039.thumb.jpeg.5c2e712ddea02875bbac8233829a66f8.jpeg

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Anybody else like fried okra?

57B70F36-E61E-4E3E-AAEE-5F74A9A65039.thumb.jpeg.5c2e712ddea02875bbac8233829a66f8.jpeg

ME!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Currently 57 at SLE, if they can stay under 60 for a high, they will have another double digit departure today.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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57/37 at EUG today. Good for a -9 departure. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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50 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yes, I do believe SLE verified at just under -10C with the February event. Something they have not done in January since 1982. 

I wonder how cold the temps could've been had the January 2017 snowstorm in PDX occured right before a cold wave, and if the winds managed to be calm. The 11 at PDX was the coldest since 1998 before that I'm pretty sure.

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1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

I wonder how cold the temps could've been had the January 2017 snowstorm in PDX occured right before a cold wave, and if the winds managed to be calm. The 11 at PDX was the coldest since 1998 before that I'm pretty sure.

Well that was a fairly cold airmass, and there was a ton of low level cold air locked into the Gorge/Basin. There was a bit of an inversion, the early January 2017 was definitely colder than the one following the PDX snow event, but it was still a cold airmass. In the foothills we were having like 32/19 type days. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

58 here feels warm. 

Average high at SLE on Monday is 70. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Average high at SLE on Monday is 70. 

Think ours is like 66 or 67 by this point. Even a bit below normal feels pretty good by this time of year. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well that was a fairly cold airmass, and there was a ton of low level cold air locked into the Gorge/Basin. There was a bit of an inversion, the early January 2017 was definitely colder than the one following the PDX snow event, but it was still a cold airmass. In the foothills we were having like 32/19 type days. 

Oh, that makes sense. I wonder what caused the major bust though. A forecast of 1-4 inches became 13 inches in my area. Was it the models not figuring out where the low would hit?

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Think ours is like 66 or 67 by this point. Even a bit below normal feels pretty good by this time of year. 

A climo spring will be intolerably hot for you now.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

Oh, that makes sense. I wonder what caused the major bust though. A forecast of 1-4 inches became 13 inches in my area. Was it the models not figuring out where the low would hit?

Honestly I'm not totally, it wasn't a major event in my area, so there were several other events that winter that I remember much better. Basically the cold air through the gorge hit right as the heaviest moisture and best dynamics were moving in. Caused convective bands to set up which enhanced the precip. Dewey, Cascadia, Kayla, or BLI Snowman could probably provide a much better explanation. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Honestly I'm not totally, it wasn't a major event in my area, so there were several other events that winter that I remember much better. Basically the cold air through the gorge hit right as the heaviest moisture and best dynamics were moving in. Caused convective bands to set up which enhanced the precip. Dewey, Cascadia, Kayla, or BLI Snowman could probably provide a much better explanation. 

I'm pretty sure my area does really well in those setups because of the cold air accelerating down the West Hills. Wasn't there also a major foothill storm in March? I'm not sure though, I might be confusing it with a different year.

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2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I'm pretty sure my area does really well in those setups because of the cold air accelerating down the West Hills. Wasn't there also a major foothill storm in March? I'm not sure though, I might be confusing it with a different year.

There was. Our two biggest snow events that winter were on March 5-6th and New Year's Day. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, wx_statman said:

Some of you might enjoy this - I made a post about historical analogs to some of our recent cold waves:

 

Great stuff! Thanks!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There was. Our two biggest snow events that winter were on March 5-6th and New Year's Day. 

That winter was really nice, a lot of snow east of the Cascades, and many different snow events throughout the WA and OR lowlands. Apparently the coldest at PDX since 1978-79.

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Great stuff! Thanks!

No problem! That was fun to put together. I find the warm season matches really interesting. Hidden analogs so to speak, since they usually don't produce noteworthy low temperatures and go unnoticed in the records.

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

No because it’s in gas form. No albedo effect. If anything it would have a net warming effect.

H₂O is a potent greenhouse gas (much more powerful a one than CO₂). It is why it does not cool down much at night during hot, humid conditions.

Warming would happen most in whatever layer of the atmosphere the greenhouse gas increase is in. Isn’t stratospheric warming often associated with cooler tropospheric temperatures?

It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Nice afternoon...

20220513_163325.jpg

Started raining here in Salem within this past hour. Looks like SLE only hit 58 today, -10.5F daily departure. EUG and PDX both checked in with -9 departures. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

H₂O is a potent greenhouse gas (much more powerful a one than CO₂). It is why it does not cool down much at night during hot, humid conditions.

Warming would happen most in whatever layer of the atmosphere the greenhouse gas increase is in. Isn’t stratospheric warming often associated with cooler tropospheric temperatures?

Most of the other gases in the atmosphere don’t absorb in the IR bands that H2O does, though. A lot of it goes straight through. So it acts as a surface-to-TOA radiative forcing. It would possibly cool the stratosphere through collisions/diffusion of heat, if anything.

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1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

Meanwhile it was 90 in Caribou Maine today.

 

 

That’s crazy. We haven’t hit 90°F yet.

Dewpoints are beginning to increase, though. 🫥

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1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

My gf is watering the flowers/grass. I guess she didn’t look at the Euro or GFS🤦🏼‍♂️

At least she isn’t wasting any water 😂

  • lol 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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KSEA notching in a -9.1°F on the day with a high of 58°F. Only got down to 40°F last night… that 30 low is still a monkey on the back!

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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