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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


The Blob

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Rain is rain... totals are only important for statistics right now.     There is no additional benefit to putting more water on a sopping wet sponge.    It doesn't change anything.    If our vegetation prefers climo then some dry days would probably be beneficial.     But we seem to just get is one extreme or the other.    

In the long run the more rain we get in the spring the better. Winter rain is heavier and has more of a tendency to just run off. Also there is a huge tangible difference between getting over an inch of rain and getting a few hundredths. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I found water year statistics for SLE. Right now SLE is slightly above normal on the water year, if they can end up above normal it will be the first time since 2016-17. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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44 minutes ago, Andie said:

FYI

Blood Moonrise Tonight.  
 

The entire eclipse will be over five hours long, starting at 9:32 p.m. EDT on Sunday, May 15, and lasting until 2:50 a.m. EDT on Monday, May 16.

However, the total phase of the eclipse, when the moon changes color, will last only about an hour and a half, starting at 11:29 p.m. EDT and ending at 12:53 a.m. EDT. The middle of the eclipse will be the best time to look at the moon and will occur at 12:11 a.m. EDT.

Actually it's tomorrow night. 

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Looks like we just cruised past 8" of rain on the month. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This 3-year Nina is doing wonders.    The western US is completely out of balance.

Looks like you’re about to reach the May monthly average rainfall within the hour!

https://www.northbendweather.com/WWL-mobile.php

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In the long run the more rain we get in the spring the better. Winter rain is heavier and has more of a tendency to just run off. Also there is a huge tangible difference between getting over an inch of rain and getting a few hundredths. 

There is very little tangible difference between light rain and moderate rain... its wet either way.    And there would be absolutely no issues with a 4 or 5 day dry period which is perfectly normal at this time of year.   This is a silly discussion.    One where we pretend it normally rains every day and anything less is catastrophic for the environment.  🤪

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just insane this is the middle of May. Actually a stronger -ENSO signature than any of the 2008-12 years. Even healthier than 1999 and 1988 at this time.

88684C82-6DF1-4ADA-BF7B-B2E4F413BB96.png

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Looks like you’re about to reach the May monthly average rainfall within the hour!

https://www.northbendweather.com/WWL-mobile.php

Yes... we have not talked about it much on here but its been pretty wet.    ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Looks like you’re about to reach the May monthly average rainfall within the hour!

https://www.northbendweather.com/WWL-mobile.php

Salem is at 3.23" now, average for May there is 2.25". Already their wettest May since 2011. All time record is 5.54" in 1896. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Also the WPAC warm pool is displaced farther S/W this year compared to 2011.

Hard to find a stronger cool western US signal at this time of year. At least during the satellite era.

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Just now, Phil said:

Also the WPAC warm pool is displaced farther S/W this year compared to 2011.

Hard to find a stronger cool western US signal at this time of year. At least during the satellite era.

Yeah... the persistence is very unusual.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Rain is shifting east now... should be a somewhat decent day.    At least we have a warmer air mass overhead for a couple days.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Just insane this is the middle of May. Actually a stronger -ENSO signature than any of the 2008-12 years. Even healthier than 1999 and 1988 at this time.

88684C82-6DF1-4ADA-BF7B-B2E4F413BB96.png

May 1985 looked similar... of course that was a ridiculously dry year here.

1985.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There is very little tangible difference between light rain and moderate rain... its wet either way.    And there would be absolutely no issues with a 4 or 5 day dry period which is perfectly normal at this time of year.   This is a silly discussion.    One where we pretend it normally rains every day and anything less is catastrophic for the environment.  🤪

No one is saying it needs to rain everyday. The fact is it has been wetter relative to average in Western Oregon, which is where a large surplus of rain was needed. 

In this area, after years of heat and long term drought, this is helpful for the native vegetation and fish. I have not fished at Silver Falls yet this year, but I worry most of the trout were boiled alive last summer as the creek was already at low summer flows when the park blew away their all time high and hit 108. Not to mention how hot it stayed the rest of the summer, if you don't understand, read the posts I put up last night about it. This spring though the creek is flowing with good volume and cold water the fish love. My Dad has several acres of Douglas Fir, they have been dying in alarming numbers the past couple of years due to heat/drought stress. This weather will help the remaining ones tremendously. 

Maybe you guys up there didn't need this, but we did. I've enjoyed the dry days we've had, if we get a few more that would be nice, but getting the rain and not torching is more important. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No one is saying it needs to rain everyday. The fact is it has been wetter relative to average in Western Oregon, which is where a large surplus of rain was needed. 

In this area, after years of heat and long term drought, this is helpful for the native vegetation and fish. I have not fished at Silver Falls yet this year, but I worry most of the trout were boiled alive last summer as the creek was already at low summer flows when the park blew away their all time high and hit 108. Not to mention how hot it stayed the rest of the summer, if you don't understand, read the posts I put up last night about it. This spring though the creek is flowing with good volume and cold water the fish love. My Dad has several acres of Douglas Fir, they have been dying in alarming numbers the past couple of years due to heat/drought stress. This weather will help the remaining ones tremendously. 

Maybe you guys up there didn't need this, but we did. I've enjoyed the dry days we've had, if we get a few more that would be nice, but getting the rain and not torching is more important. 

I totally understand your perspective given what you have been through down there.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

May 1985 looked similar... of course that was a ridiculously dry year here.

1985.png

1985 was the 2nd driest year on record at Salem. Also the coldest calendar year on record in the 1892-present period of record. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

May 1985 looked similar... of course that was a ridiculously dry year here.

1985.png

But that was cool everywhere. What really matters for tropical circulation as it relates to ENSO/etc is differential heating (IE: where are SSTs warm/cold relative to other places).

You can see a *relatively* warm off-equator NPAC in that image, in addition to a +SIOD, +SPMM, and -AMM. All of which are lacking this year. That’s basically the cold globe/post-eruption version of 2014. This year is more like an enhanced 2011 in the deep tropics.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I totally understand your perspective given what you have been through down there.  

And don't get me wrong, a dry day would be nice. Our property has never been this muddy... Not even close, and we would like to get a garden in soon, and do other yard projects. But dry weather will come. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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23 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Actually it's tomorrow night. 

Yup. Got ahead of myself !!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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In other news, the upcoming post-extension -dAAMT is a big time severe weather signal at this time of year.

Someone is going to get smashed later this month.

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This upcoming week may be the driest of the month. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No one is saying it needs to rain everyday. The fact is it has been wetter relative to average in Western Oregon, which is where a large surplus of rain was needed. 

In this area, after years of heat and long term drought, this is helpful for the native vegetation and fish. I have not fished at Silver Falls yet this year, but I worry most of the trout were boiled alive last summer as the creek was already at low summer flows when the park blew away their all time high and hit 108. Not to mention how hot it stayed the rest of the summer, if you don't understand, read the posts I put up last night about it. This spring though the creek is flowing with good volume and cold water the fish love. My Dad has several acres of Douglas Fir, they have been dying in alarming numbers the past couple of years due to heat/drought stress. This weather will help the remaining ones tremendously. 

Maybe you guys up there didn't need this, but we did. I've enjoyed the dry days we've had, if we get a few more that would be nice, but getting the rain and not torching is more important. 

We need the rain, but it should happen during the night or during weekdays when we're stuck in the office.

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15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No one is saying it needs to rain everyday. The fact is it has been wetter relative to average in Western Oregon, which is where a large surplus of rain was needed. 

In this area, after years of heat and long term drought, this is helpful for the native vegetation and fish. I have not fished at Silver Falls yet this year, but I worry most of the trout were boiled alive last summer as the creek was already at low summer flows when the park blew away their all time high and hit 108. Not to mention how hot it stayed the rest of the summer, if you don't understand, read the posts I put up last night about it. This spring though the creek is flowing with good volume and cold water the fish love. My Dad has several acres of Douglas Fir, they have been dying in alarming numbers the past couple of years due to heat/drought stress. This weather will help the remaining ones tremendously. 

Maybe you guys up there didn't need this, but we did. I've enjoyed the dry days we've had, if we get a few more that would be nice, but getting the rain and not torching is more important. 

Didn't Salem break a record for 90 degree days? They even hit 100 again late in July. Portland had a lot of high 80s I think. 

 

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Just now, Phil said:

Anyone see last night’s 00z EPS and control run?

Bonkers.

19B1E896-FEDE-46C9-AF2A-3AB82CF81556.png8743DB89-83E9-4F7B-9F4F-9524A4B67EEE.png

At least the middle of the country is joining us again.

And that pattern does flip very quickly on both of those runs.     This is just a couple days later on the EPS...

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3609600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And the retrogression back to classical -PNA doesn’t happen until after D10. This week is a subseasonal aberration from the seasonal base state and it’s still managing to end up on the cool/wet side.

When the flow slows down and NPAC high builds back in, another anomalously chilly west coast airmass seems likely.

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8 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Didn't Salem break a record for 90 degree days? They even hit 100 again late in July. Portland had a lot of high 80s I think. 

 

They had 41 90+ days. I think it was a record. Also hit 100 in late July and 103 TWICE in August. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The mid/late week trough isn't as wet on this run, but then a very wet system comes through Saturday night/Sunday morning. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

At least the middle of the country is joining us again.

And that pattern does flip very quickly on both of those runs.     This is just a couple days later on the EPS...

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3609600.png

When looking at these ensemble means keep in mind there’s likely going to be a rapid snap back from the extended jet, to a Niña-esque -PNA/NPAC ridge, a process that will not show up well at-range.

The pattern is poised to become much less progressive by the end of the month into early June (and much more like your typical -ENSO low frequency pattern).

We might go right into a Plains death ridge pattern during the first week of June.

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26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

They had 41 90+ days. I think it was a record. Also hit 100 in late July and 103 TWICE in August. 

So the most 90 degree days, the 117 degrees reading, and the hottest summer on record. And Salem's climate records go back to the late 1800s! Last summer was crazy.

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18 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

So the most 90 degree days, the 117 degrees reading, and the hottest summer on record. And Salem's climate records go back to the late 1800s! Last summer was crazy.

In the Seattle area it was much more reasonable after the insane June heatwave.  It will be most interesting to see if this summer can pull off a full 180 from last.  Whatever happens it will at least get less gloomy /wet than what we've been seeing.  That is inevitable from an historical perspective.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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50 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The mid/late week trough isn't as wet on this run, but then a very wet system comes through Saturday night/Sunday morning. 

I'm hoping it doesn't find a way to totally mess up next weekend.  Still a good chance Saturday will be ok.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

In the Seattle area it was much more reasonable after the insane June heatwave.  It will be most interesting to see if this summer can pull off a full 180 from last.  Whatever happens it will at least get less gloomy /wet than what we've been seeing.  That is inevitable from an historical perspective.

Maybe we could get a slightly colder June this year than average?

Looks like PDX had 0.67" of rain overnight.

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45 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

In the Seattle area it was much more reasonable after the insane June heatwave.  It will be most interesting to see this summer can pull off a full 180 from last.  Whatever happens it will at least get less gloomy /wet than what we've been seeing.  That is inevitable from an historical perspective.

Yeah the Puget Sound area was basically an oasis in a PNW blast furnace. It was ridiculously hot east of the Cascades too... As I said last night, I think the fact it wasn't as hot comparatively in Seattle, kind of makes it hard for Puget Sounders to relate to what other posters on this forum went through last summer. But even that aside, it's pretty astonishing how hot some of our recent summers have been August 2017 stands out as just being insane, July 2018 was very hot, though it didn't have extreme heat, 18 90+ days at SLE. August 2016 had some obscene heatwaves too. June/July 2015,  even the summers of 2013 and 14 were very hot down here. 

Summer 2019 was not terrible though, SLE did somehow manage to hit 100 in late August and had a significant June heatwave, but overall it was only a warm summer. 2020 had a couple big heatwaves too, but was only a "warm" summer too. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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