May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

After today we ll only be about -3F on the month. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

After today we ll only be about -3F on the month. 

Probably on our way to a +5F month here. 

[Phil]

28 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Hey guys. Need a favor. My family is staying in Fort Myers Florida for a month starting tomorrow. Just looking at the extended forecast it looks like a major hurricane is set to give us a direct hit in about 9 days. I won’t have my computer, and was initially going to get away from the internet for awhile. Feeling a bit unsettled about this. If anyone wants to track this thing and send me updates via text message it would be greatly appreciated. If you’d like to, send me a PM and i’ll shoot my phone number over. Thanks guys!

brennan

I’ll send you my # but I don’t think that GFS-icane is going to happen. It has a tendency to erroneously spin up systems from Central America during CCKW passages.

[Phil]

EPS  

[Phil]

EPS and GEFS actually quite similar in their respective evolutions over the next 2 weeks.

Operational GFS is charting its own lonely course, as usual.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, Phil said:

EPS and GEFS actually quite similar in their respective evolutions over the next 2 weeks.

Operational GFS is charting its own lonely course, as usual.

Your thoughts on june out here in the PNW? 

[TacomaWaWx]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ll send you my # but I don’t think that GFS-icane is going to happen. It has a tendency to erroneously spin up systems from Central America during CCKW passages.

I really doubt there is going to be a hurricane in May.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File:1851-2017_Atlantic_hurricanes_and_tropical_storms_by_month.svg

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Flood alert!

[Phil]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Your thoughts on june out here in the PNW? 

I think a bit cooler/wetter than average with a warm period during the second week of the month?

Neither of the last 2 warm-ups I’d been expecting have actually showed up, though, so maybe the next one won’t either.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

This April/May has been great for the mountains. The mount hood test site is finally above normal.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

This April/May has been great for the mountains. The mount hood test site is finally above normal.

The most impressive improvement so far has been in southern oregon. 

[Doinko]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

The most impressive improvement so far has been in southern oregon. 

Yeah, now none of the basins are below normal, which is really good.

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think a bit cooler/wetter than average with a warm period during the second week of the month?

Neither of the last 2 warm-ups I’d been expecting have actually showed up, though, so maybe the next one won’t either.

It’s gonna have to get warm eventually…which would be nice to see too as long as it doesn’t stay warm/dry forever and we can still manage some cooler/wet intervals this summer. 

[Doinko]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

It’s gonna have to get warm eventually…which would be nice to see too as long as it doesn’t stay warm/dry forever and we can still manage some cooler/wet intervals this summer. 

Let's just hope it's not a repeat of most of our recent summers: 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, or 2021.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It’s gonna have to get warm eventually…which would be nice to see too as long as it doesn’t stay warm/dry forever and we can still manage some cooler/wet intervals this summer. 

And, to allude to my recent post, if it doesn’t quickly warm up to heatwave conditions and cause flooding from rapid snowmelt.

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And, to allude to my recent post, if it doesn’t quickly warm up to heatwave conditions and cause flooding from rapid snowmelt.

That happened to some degree with the big heatwave in mid-May 2008. There was flooding in the Yakima valley as well as some other spots thanks to rapid melting of an unusually large late spring snowpack at lower elevations 

[ShawniganLake]

10 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks awesome for Vancouver Island.   I know @ShawniganLake is really tired of all the hot sunshine up there.

That 3minute 56F sun break yesterday evening was particularly brutal.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Mildest night of the spring so far here with a low of only 54.

Mostly cloudy and 59 currently with a sprinkle here or there. Feels balmy out.

[BLI snowman]

26 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That happened to some degree with the big heatwave in mid-May 2008. There was flooding in the Yakima valley as well as some other spots thanks to rapid melting of an unusually large late spring snowpack at lower elevations 

1948 is the best example. Cold/wet spring and a few warm days in late May drove the Columbia to record stages.

[ShawniganLake]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

1948 is the best example. Cold/wet spring and a few warm days in late May drove the Columbia to record stages.

That was a record flood on the Fraser river that spring. Most of the Fraser valley was underwater. 

[Doinko]

PDX finally broke their 8 year streak of dry Mays. Maybe the hot summer streak can end next??

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1948 is the best example. Cold/wet spring and a few warm days in late May drove the Columbia to record stages.

The Vanport Flood.

[Brennan]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Were you looking at the gfs? 

Yeah the 6z gfs.

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

That was a record flood on the Fraser river that spring. Most of the Fraser valley was underwater. 

Yep, and each of the biggest rivers in the region (Fraser. Snake, Willamette, Columbia) have a majority of their highest crests from spring snowmelt flooding in May/June rather than wintertime pineapple express events. Different dynamic on them versus the smaller rivers that see faster runoff and obviously have much more narrowly focused watersheds.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Yeah the 6z gfs.

Good chance the GFS is just out to lunch.

W-Hem CCKW passages are an Achilles Heel for the GFS. You can always count on it throwing up stupid solutions during these periods.

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Yeah the 6z gfs.

Phil can give you the more sciency explanation on why the gfs is wrong but it’s very unlikely there will be a hurricane. Especially this time of year I wouldn’t worry about it. The gfs seems to like to develop hurricanes for some reason. 

[ShawniganLake]

Maybe a little May windstorm on Wednesday morning for Vancouver island 

 

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The Vanport Flood.

Yep. Wouldn't want such a devastating flood but certainly wouldn't mind following that analog otherwise.

[TacomaWaWx]

Radars filling in to the SW…raining decently here. Todays rainfall is a more mild rainfall than we’ve seen recently. The “warm rain season” is one of my favorite times of year. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yep. Wouldn't want such a devastating flood but certainly wouldn't mind following that analog otherwise.

It’s likely a flood of that magnitude wouldn’t be possible anymore thanks to the string of dams along the Columbia and its upper tributaries. The Vanport Flood in particular was a catalyst for the construction of The Dalles Dam in 1957.

[Doinko]

18 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yep. Wouldn't want such a devastating flood but certainly wouldn't mind following that analog otherwise.

Didn't the winter of 1948-1949 set a record in Portland for days with at least an inch of snow cover? Until the next winter broke that record.

[TT-SEA]

Overall... the details are improving in the models despite staying unusually chilly and wet.    The 00Z ECMWF was actually fairly dry and at least partly sunny on most days after today... and most days were 60+ when taking into its cold bias (which actually still exists even in a cold pattern).    Even Wednesday turned out partly sunny on that run with the main front moving through in the morning.   

Also worth mentioning that at one point the ECMWF was showing it being dry and warm today with the crash coming this evening... while the GFS was showing a broad area of light rain and cooler temps.   GFS won that battle... so its not always out to lunch.

 

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Didn't the winter of 1948-1949 set a record in Portland for days with at least an inch of snow cover? Until the next winter broke that record.

For PDX's period of record, yes. There were some winters with more before that but they were recorded in downtown.

Definitely one of the best winters on record and still the coldest on record for many places.

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, Brennan said:

Hey guys. Need a favor. My family is staying in Fort Myers Florida for a month starting tomorrow. Just looking at the extended forecast it looks like a major hurricane is set to give us a direct hit in about 9 days. I won’t have my computer, and was initially going to get away from the internet for awhile. Feeling a bit unsettled about this. If anyone wants to track this thing and send me updates via text message it would be greatly appreciated. If you’d like to, send me a PM and i’ll shoot my phone number over. Thanks guys!

brennan

Are you all moved in to your new place in South Carolina?    

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

For PDX's period of record, yes. There were some winters with more before that but they were recorded in downtown.

Definitely one of the best winters on record and still the coldest on record for many places.

The fact that there were two amazing winters back to back like that is amazing.

[MossMan]

Up to .25” on the day. 

[Brennan]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Are you all moved in to your new place in South Carolina?    

Yeah. In inman. My allergies are awful in SC though. Fled to South Florida for relief. Didn’t foresee a hurricane being an issue lol. This is our third year in a row going and haven’t hardly encountered a thunderstorm!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Brennan said:

Yeah. In inman. My allergies are awful in SC though. Fled to South Florida for relief. Didn’t foresee a hurricane being an issue lol. This is our third year in a row going and haven’t hardly encountered a thunderstorm!

Luckily the 00Z ECMWF/EPS/Control Run didn't show any tropical system at all down there.

[Doinko]

PDX hasn't recorded a sub-20 low since 2016-2017. Obviously some of that has to do with UHI, but Hillsboro hasn't recorded a sub-19 low either (19 in Nov 2019 and Feb 2022). I hope we can somehow get a sub-20 low next winter. Maybe we're paying back for the 11 degree low at PDX in 2017 and the 3 degree low at HIO in 2017.