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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


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8 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Significantly more than here up north. I'm at 16.6" on the year which is probably about 1-2" below normal, although we might pick that up by the end of the month.

 I’m at 27.46” on the year. You can have all of my rainfall for the next month!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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10 hours ago, James Jones said:

I get the desire to counter Tim but I think this spring is more impressive than some are giving it credit for, at least since the second week of April. April was one of the wettest on record for the region, we had an unprecedented snow event even going back to the 1870s (maybe something similar happened before that? Justin would probably know) and it's been persistently below normal with only very brief interludes of warmer than normal. PDX hasn't gotten above 75 yet which I imagine is pretty rare by this point in this spring, though I don't have time to check at the moment. 

Overall it hasn't been historic aside from the snow event, but I think it's still been pretty impressive.

All the way back to the 1870s seems like a bit of an exaggeration. Seems like 1933 and 1936 also had fairly significant accumulating April snow events at least at PDX.

The former was followed by one of our worst winters of all time, the latter followed by one of our best winters of all time. Not too surprising given how blocky that era was.

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49 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

That’s a nice old pondo in that bottom pic. Need to dig up my forest service old growth age guide but those are some pretty scales at the bottom. 

That trail has this extremely large pondie. Mom (hugging it) and Dad (continuing onward) for comparison. This was taken on Christmas 2021. Even in the dead of winter this one had some vanilla smell to it.

Have not yet seen the “Big Tree” which is the widest known ponderosa pine in La Pine State Park just to the south of this spot. It has a 29’ trunk diameter. The tallest ponderosa pine (and I think tallest known living pine) is 268’ and is in the Siskiyou Mountains of southern Oregon, just west of Grants Pass.

DEFEB8BF-E91F-486A-8447-6032B9EE64ED.thumb.jpeg.9ba752cadc17dd53de4d32b22fa10d40.jpeg

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This video was really cool to watch, it had a lot of information about the current pattern and the La Nina and stuff.
He shows the ECMWF weeklies, which actually show a cool June for OR and WA. It looks like the plains will have a lot of drought concerns though.

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1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

This video was really cool to watch, it had a lot of information about the current pattern and the La Nina and stuff.
He shows the ECMWF weeklies, which actually show a cool June for OR and WA. It looks like the plains will have a lot of drought concerns though.

Very well articulated.

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5 hours ago, Phil said:

Biblical.

61AB0E67-8D38-44F0-A3D1-AB75E98AED15.png

The ECMWF shows the same pattern at day 10... but the troughing it so broad that its actually not that bad here.     That seems to be the deepest point per the EPS... heights slow rise after that.   Its an impressive 500mb pattern for sure... but I am not sure its going to end up being worse here than during any of the other craziness we have seen this month. 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3609600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t2m_f_max6-3609600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The EPS looks fairly wet on the ensemble chart at least. Wetter than the GEFS. Both are generally below average through the entirety of their runs. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 hours ago, Doiinko said:

This video was really cool to watch, it had a lot of information about the current pattern and the La Nina and stuff.
He shows the ECMWF weeklies, which actually show a cool June for OR and WA. It looks like the plains will have a lot of drought concerns though.


Thanks for sharing... I really enjoyed this video and I am going to bookmark it so I can watch all of his updates now.    Its so informative and factual without any hype.    He did mention that he expects the blocking high to develop over the plains in June and slowly shift westward through the summer... supporting the idea of a backloaded summer in the PNW.

He also focuses on the entire country... which is pretty interesting.   The pattern this spring has been really bad for a large part of the country because the Nina pattern is focusing all of the precip up north.   Seems like everyone should be cheering for a Nino now.  He actually said this Nina pattern has "led to this mess" when showing the map below.    

 

mess.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:


Thanks for sharing... I really enjoyed this video and I am going to bookmark it so I can watch all of his updates now.    Its so informative and factual without any hype.    He did mention that he expects the blocking high to develop over the plains in June and slowly shift westward through the summer... supporting the idea of a backloaded summer in the PNW.

He also focuses on the entire country... which is pretty interesting.   The pattern this spring has been really bad for a large part of the country because the Nina pattern is focusing all of the precip up north.   Seems like everyone should be cheering for a Nino now.  He actually said this Nina pattern has "led to this mess" when showing the map below.    

 

mess.png

Yeah, his videos are really well done.

Even though an El Nino probably won't be as good up here, I'd rather have it because of all the drought around the country. A third year Nina would probably just make it worse.

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4 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Yeah, his videos are really well done.

Even though an El Nino probably won't be as good up here, I'd rather have it because of all the drought around the country. A third year Nina would probably just make it worse.

A 3rd year Nina is already a forgone conclusion... but a Nino would be very welcomed next year for those in the SW and plains.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like after that storm Wednesday there could be a few days with little to no rain on the euro. 7-10 day period is wet again though. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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We only need 0.19" to jump from 8th wettest May to 4th. Should do that Wednesday/Thursday. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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EURO gives us 1.90" through hour 240. GFS under 1". 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like EUG hit 39 on a 5min observation. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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A rare sunny morning here... also have not received any precip so this might end up being the second totally dry day of the month.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

Yeah, his videos are really well done.

Even though an El Nino probably won't be as good up here, I'd rather have it because of all the drought around the country. A third year Nina would probably just make it worse.

The La Niña helped with the drought here, though. It seems like both ENSO states are good for some parts of the country and bad for others in terms of drought. And there is even lots of variability between individual events. California had one of its worst drought years on record with the super Niño in 2015-16.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The La Niña helped with the drought here, though. It seems like both ENSO states are good for some parts of the country and bad for others in terms of drought. And there is even lots of variability between individual events. California had one of its worst drought years on record with the super Niño in 2015-16.

Was it the winter of 2016-17 that mostly eliminated the drought there? That was a weak Niña or cold neutral I think. A repeat of that would be nice

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1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

Was it the winter of 2016-17 that mostly eliminated the drought there? That was a weak Niña or cold neutral I think. A repeat of that would be nice

I think it qualified as a weak La Niña. And yeah it was definitely a drought buster for CA thanks largely to the very suppressed polar jet (the same tendency that gave us such a consistently chilly winter up here). 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

00z EPS. Looks like there is a decent signal developing for our next rainy period (after tomorrow) being around the last week of the month.

F39CD397-4F07-4834-BEB5-0FB8737DEA29.png

 

EPS is ROCK solid. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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GFS is still showing a warm weekend... might be waiting until the last minute to do the rug pull on us this time.  

Also see that its warming up in Alaska too.

gfs-deterministic-namer-t2m_f_max6-3264000 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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GFS continues to show pathetic precip amounts this week. Should tamp down on the whining for a few hours.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS is still showing a warm weekend... might be waiting until the last minute to do the rug pull on us this time.  

Also see that its warming up in Alaska too.

gfs-deterministic-namer-t2m_f_max6-3264000 (1).png

Average high is 70 here now. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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According to Dave Ross’s highly detailed forecast this morning on Kiro radio we are only expecting sprinkles tomorrow morning and then dry and warm through the weekend!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I think it qualified as a weak La Niña. And yeah it was definitely a drought buster for CA thanks largely to the very suppressed polar jet (the same tendency that gave us such a consistently chilly winter up here). 

Basically everyone in the I5 corridor had a snowstorm I think, some did better than others though.

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Average high is 70 here now. 

Anything above 60 feels like a heat wave up here.    The bar is so low right now.

A perfectly normal spring will seem ridiculously warm... hope we can pull that off next year.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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