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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


The Blob

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12Z GFS has a totally different idea for next week than previous runs.    The troughing digs again into the middle of the country rather than over the PNW.   I noticed the 06Z run started moving in that direction.   I assume this will change after it pulls the rug on this weekend.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12z is a concerning run for folx who don't want to head back into the furnace we have grown accustomed to. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Tim laughs, but I heard on the radio this morning we will likely make a very quick transition into wildland fire season this year. They said people are complacent because it has rained, but that just means more undergrowth to burn. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim laughs, but I heard on the radio this morning we will likely make a very quick transition into wildland fire season this year. They said people are complacent because it has rained, but that just means more undergrowth to burn. 

We just can't win.    Too little rain and now too much rain.

I doubt we see any extended dry weather until July... but I am guessing that July-Sept will be quite nice.    I wouldn't be too worried about fires.   I don't think 2011 was a major wildfire year in western Oregon.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And for the rain lovers... a nice period for a week like the 12Z GFS shows would definitely set us up to crash hard just in time for Memorial Day weekend.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z is a concerning run for folx who don't want to head back into the furnace we have grown accustomed to. 

The GFS is a worthless sack of trash. Phantom gulf canes and erroneous EW propagation literally every run.

Why do people even look at it?

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We just can't win.    Too little rain and now too much rain.

I doubt we see any extended dry weather until July... but I am guessing that July-Sept will be quite nice.    I wouldn't be too worried about fires.   I don't think 2011 was a major wildfire year in western Oregon.  

2011 was actually the most active fire season in Oregon since 2007. Slightly below the 10-year average burned, and it would be a very very low # compared to our average fire season in the 2015-present period. 

2011 was a very quiet fire season in Washington though. In Oregon there was a major lightning event in late August which had 9600 strikes in Oregon apparently. The last week of August and first two weeks of September were when most of the fire activity occurred. There as a 108,000 acre fire on the Warm Springs Reservation, and a 57,000 acre fire north of Clarno in North Central Oregon. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Not being hyperbolic. The GFS solutions in the W-Hem tropics are so far removed from anything even remotely reasonable that it should call into question the value of continuing to run the model to that range.

Utterly useless. Garbage. Shut it down.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Not being hyperbolic. The GFS solutions in the W-Hem tropics are so far removed from anything even remotely reasonable that it should call into question the value of continuing to run the model to that range.

Utterly useless. Garbage. Shut it down.

It delivers a very Tim friendly solution. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It delivers a very Tim friendly solution. 

I have said it won't happen... not even what it shows this weekend which is just 3 days away now.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I have said it won't happen... not even what it shows this weekend which is just 3 days away now.

GEM looks fine for this weekend. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The La Niña helped with the drought here, though. It seems like both ENSO states are good for some parts of the country and bad for others in terms of drought. And there is even lots of variability between individual events. California had one of its worst drought years on record with the super Niño in 2015-16.

Yeah there seems to be plenty of people wanting an El Niño to help out California and the SW US drought…but it doesn’t always work that way. No guarantee an El Niño will help at all. Kinda how last spring was La Niña…you’d assume that would be great for rain here in the PNW but it doesn’t always work that way. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah there seems to be plenty of people wanting an El Niño to help out California and the SW US drought…but it doesn’t always work that way. No guarantee an El Niño will help at all. Kinda how last spring was La Niña…you’d assume that would be great for rain here in the PNW but it doesn’t always work that way. 

Spring 2018 was pretty dry too. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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15 minutes ago, Phil said:

The GFS is a worthless sack of trash. Phantom gulf canes and erroneous EW propagation literally every run.

Why do people even look at it?

I barely even check the gfs out anymore. Compared to the euro it’s just not very good. It’s right occasionally but usually the euro wins which is why it’s called the king. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM looks fine for this weekend. 

Had to look up the 12Z GEM because I was not sure what you meant by "fine".    I actually agree with your assessment.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah there seems to be plenty of people wanting an El Niño to help out California and the SW US drought…but it doesn’t always work that way. No guarantee an El Niño will help at all. Kinda how last spring was La Niña…you’d assume that would be great for rain here in the PNW but it doesn’t always work that way. 

That's true, whatever we get I hope the SW gets some more rain

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Spring 2018 was pretty dry too. 

Yeah El Niño and La Niña don’t always guarantee things will go one way or the other. 2018-2019 was overall a very nino winter…until February. Sometimes nature just does what it wants despite SSTs. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Had to look up the 12Z GEM because I was not sure what you meant by "fine".    I actually agree with your assessment.

In this case I am referencing your standards. Notice I didn’t say blessing or manna from heaven. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah El Niño and La Niña don’t always guarantee things will go one way or the other. 2018-2019 was overall a very nino winter…until February. Sometimes nature just does what it wants despite SSTs. 

Nina has screwed CA... something different would be nice.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah El Niño and La Niña don’t always guarantee things will go one way or the other. 2018-2019 was overall a very nino winter…until February. Sometimes nature just does what it wants despite SSTs. 

Even though Portland did pretty badly with snow in February 2019, the persistent cold was still really impressive, even here. I think it was one of the top 3 or 5 (not sure) coldest Februarys on record at PDX.

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah El Niño and La Niña don’t always guarantee things will go one way or the other. 2018-2019 was overall a very nino winter…until February. Sometimes nature just does what it wants despite SSTs. 

Spring 2019 was pretty Niño-like too with all that Rex blocking. OR and WA were high and dry, while CA got record rainfall.

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36 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It delivers a very Tim friendly solution. 

I was more referencing the looniness in the tropics. But if it’s wrong there it’s possibly wrong in a lot of other places/ways.

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29 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I barely even check the gfs out anymore. Compared to the euro it’s just not very good. It’s right occasionally but usually the euro wins which is why it’s called the king. 

Same dude. I check it for the comedic value but I’ve never received any benefit from it when trying to forecast the medium/long range.

Perhaps that says more about me than the model(s). Lol.

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8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Flew over Lake Chelan on my way into Seattle yesterday. Forgot how far that lake stretches. Goes on forever. 

20220516_150507.jpg

What a wonderful view! Wow! And such a beautiful lake as well. I can't wait to visit again. 

Also, welcome home! :D

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52 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Flew over Lake Chelan on my way into Seattle yesterday. Forgot how far that lake stretches. Goes on forever. 

20220516_150507.jpg

One of my favorite places to go east of the Cascades! Loved the little secluded cabin at the very end of South Lakeshore road we stayed at years ago! 

1A113A60-1E92-460B-B5C2-8876C6AF3C4A.jpeg

1A15E991-8855-4A8A-AA94-52A2334839F9.jpeg

3B6F1048-B86F-4BA6-B62D-0A02E8061BCB.jpeg

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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12Z ECMWF is also wildly different at day 7 than its 00Z run.    Much less troughing offshore and more of a focus in the middle of North America.     The last 3 runs of the ECMWF have trended drier over the next week as well.    It has been following the GFS to some degree.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

At least the ensembles look good compared to the operational 

0DA19727-47EC-43C5-813B-B82E2AB8D32C.png

Looks like a lot wetter on the ensembles . 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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00Z ECMWF for next Wednesday morning on top... and new 12Z run on the bottom.    Complicated pattern... ECMWF does not have a handle on it yet either. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3480000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3480000 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It is worth noting that the ECMWF showed a washout weekend a couple days ago while the GFS was dry... and now the ECMWF is basically dry as well.     The GFS has also been showing the focus of the major troughing being over the middle of the country next week and now the ECMWF is starting to show that as well.    Its not as simple as the GFS is always wrong.    The reality usually ends up being some sort of compromise.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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GFS performs fine. It called that April cold snap a couple weeks in advance. Merica.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS performs fine. It called that April cold snap a couple weeks in advance. Merica.

ECMWF is better overall... but the GFS is nowhere near as bad as Phil says.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Getting some bonus rain showers here on what I thought was going to be a dry day.  I think that’s 62 or 63 days with measurable rain so far this spring.   Farmers are definitely starting to worry. Crops are a good 3 weeks behind at this point and a lot of fields remain unworkable.   Some flood preparations underway in parts of the interior. With so much snow remaining in the high elevations, it could be a quick melt if we get any warm weather in June. 

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