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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


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5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Exactly, even that has been lacking. Just very weird.

It'll come. In a way you won't even expect. A truly biblical event that'll make 2/25/19 look like a joke.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It'll come. In a way you won't even expect. A truly biblical event that'll make 2/25/19 look like a joke.

I truly believe this winter 22-23 will blow our fuckkin minds.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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Pouring rain here this morning... but the ECMWF shows some sun at times this afternoon in the Seattle area.   Tomorrow afternoon looks decent as well.    And then apparently we are actually going to have a nice weekend.  Amazing.   

Even next week looks fairly decent now.... but that would obviously set the stage for a rainy Memorial Day weekend.   I assumed it would rain right through the end of the month anyways so any break is just a bonus.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SEA has only picked up .11 from this system... and don't think there will be much more.     But it was enough to push the monthly total to 3.05 inches which is a top 10 wet May there with almost 2 weeks to go.     

There has only been 12 years in which SEA has reached 3 inches of rain in May... and 5 of those years have been since 2009!      Seems to be a trend towards May getting wetter when you look at the long term data.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA has only picked up .11 from this system... and don't think there will be much more.     But it was enough to push the monthly total to 3.05 inches which is a top 10 wet May there with almost 2 weeks to go.     

There has only been 12 years in which SEA has reached 3 inches of rain in May... and 5 of those years have been since 2009!      Seems to be a trend towards May getting wetter when you look at the long term data.

May is typically a fairly dry month at Seattle. 3.05” getting you into the top 10, is weak sauce. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

May is typically a fairly dry month at Seattle. 3.05” getting you into the top 10, is weak sauce. 

Climo is climo.   

SEA is at 278% of normal rain month-to-date and every day has been colder than normal with a -5.6 departure so far which is pretty impressive.  

In fact... as of tomorrow SEA has been below normal on 48 out of the last 50 days.    That is a Feb/Mar 2019 type run... this is actually a little more impressive now.

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Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Looks like the fun is over. Well, it was over as of this last weekend. Very dry for the foreseeable future. Today isn’t a bust because it has been clear for the last couple of days that it would underperform. 

We are probably looking at 90-120 dry days now with maybe 5-6 wet ones mixed in. 

 

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Climo is climo.   

SEA is at 278% of normal rain month-to-date and every day has been colder than normal with a -5.6 departure so far which is pretty impressive.  

In fact... as of tomorrow SEA has been below normal on 48 out of the last 50 days.    That is a Feb/Mar 2019 type run... this is actually a little more impressive now.

Just a fact. A top 10 wet May for Seattle would be below average here. But yet the whining continues. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This line of light mist has pushed us to 0.22” on the day and 8.50” On the month... which is nothing compared to the pain Seattle has experienced. Or so I am told. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just a fact. A top 10 wet May for Seattle would be below average here. But yet the whining continues. 

You literally just did a total weenie whine right above this sentence in response to Joshua.   Nice work.   😀

At least my post was reporting on what has actually happened compared to normal.    You are whining about something that hasn't even happened yet!

Regardless... we have been far from climo the last couple of months.   And a climo spring is going to seem very nice when it happens again.   

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You literally just did a total weenie whine right above this sentence in response to Joshua.   Nice work.   😀

At least my post was reporting on what has actually happened compared to normal.    You are whining about something that hasn't even happened yet!

Regardless... we have been far from climo the last couple of months.   And a climo spring is going to seem very nice when it happens again.   

 

Not really a whine. What i described is typical of the dry season. There is always a chance we get a little rain in June, but once it’s over it won’t be back until late September or October. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This line of light mist has pushed us to 0.22” on the day and 8.50” On the month... which is nothing compared to the pain Seattle has experienced. Or so I am told. 

😀

So stupid... it was a straight up factual post.   There was nothing about pain.    You just don't like the realization that this spring is not something that is likely to be repeated very often and bristle at posts that point out that its been pretty far from climo.   

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not really a whine. What i described is typical of the dry season. There is always a chance we get a little rain in June, but once it’s over it won’t be back until late September or October. 

It was a total weenie whiny post.     Way more whiny than reporting SEA stats.

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We’ve picked up 0.15” this morning…up to 3.18” for the month. Getting a little breezy. Interested to see how windy we get today. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Andrew is in full troll mode again.   😀

Lol, I was more responding to Joshua. it was only a matter of time before we had more than one or two dry days at a time. Euro still shows some rain in the longer range so I wouldn’t really say that summer has started yet either. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol, I was more responding to Joshua. it was only a matter of time before we had more than one or two dry days at a time. Euro still shows some rain in the longer range so I wouldn’t really say that summer has started yet either. 

No doubt... even a long overdue break which should be totally expected at this point brings out the complaining.     Even May 1955 had a decent break.    It almost always happens even in the coldest and wettest years.    Obviously its very likely that we get significant rain in June and probably July this year.   And of course there will be plenty more rain later this month as well.     

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No doubt... even a long overdue break which should be totally expected at this point brings out the complaining.     Even May 1955 had a decent break.    It almost always happens even in the coldest and wettest years.    Obviously its very likely that we get significant rain in June and probably July this year.   And of course there will be plenty more rain later this month as well.     

We’ve still got an outside chance at 4” of rain this month here…we will see about June or July but the way it’s been recently I just don’t see us flipping into prolonged warm dry weather soon. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We’ve still got an outside chance at 4” of rain this month here…we will see about June or July but the way it’s been recently I just don’t see us flipping into prolonged warm dry weather soon. 

If I had to bet... I would guess our annual dry period runs from mid-July through September this year.   And its hard to imagine it being very warm even in that period.

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If I had to bet... I would guess our annual dry period runs from mid-July through September this year.   And its hard to imagine it being very warm even in that period.

There will be some periods of nice weather for sure. I also agree with the backloaded summer idea. Even during the summer of 2019…we had plenty of 10-14 day dry streaks mixed in. We’re already getting to the time of year where it’s difficult to string together consistent rainfall. I’ve certainly enjoyed all the rain but won’t be upset with the possibility of maybe getting to 70 again or a few warm days (average) which is normal this time of year. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If I had to bet... I would guess our annual dry period runs from mid-July through September this year.   And its hard to imagine it being very warm even in that period.

I actually think August or September could end up warmer/drier than average. There’s a consistent signal for late summer/early autumn ridging in ENSO/low pass analogs.

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On 5/16/2022 at 4:24 PM, Kayla said:

First severe warned storm of the season about to hit here! Looks to be packing some big hail...😬

714636591_ScreenShot2022-05-16at5_23_03PM.png

 

 

Looks like we missed out on the fun!  We got on the freeway about 3:15-3:30.  Definitely lots of interesting clouds/storms on our drive.  We stopped in Three Forks to gas up and in that time, it went from "breezy" to high winds in a matter of minutes.

It mellowed out over the pass, then got really bad between Anaconda and the big bend where the freeway turns "left" to start going east/west again between Deer Lodge and Drummond.

Over dinner with the family at the ranch, they said this has been the windiest winter/spring that anyone can remember.

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s raining at Tim’s house. 😱

https://www.northbendweather.com/WWL-mobile.php

So strange!    

Ironically... its actually stopped raining now at my house and its become quite windy.

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Breezy and mostly dry up here this morning. Just had a gust to 35 mph which is probably about as high as we'll go. Looks like the windiest places have maxed out with gusts in the 50s including Bellingham (55 mph), Camano Island (53 mph), Lopez Island (52 mph), and Whidbey Island (51 mph).

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

There will be some periods of nice weather for sure. I also agree with the backloaded summer idea. Even during the summer of 2019…we had plenty of 10-14 day dry streaks mixed in. We’re already getting to the time of year where it’s difficult to string together consistent rainfall. I’ve certainly enjoyed all the rain but won’t be upset with the possibility of maybe getting to 70 again or a few warm days (average) which is normal this time of year. 

haha saying “even during summer 2019” shows just how warped your perception of a “bad summer” really is

wait until a june 1953 repeat lol

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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On the way to dropping the kids off this morning my 5 year old asked “when is the hot summer weather coming?”  And then proceeded to list all the things she wanted to do when summer arrives.  0.54” of rain this morning and the rain is currently pounding sideways into the front windows.  

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14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

haha saying “even during summer 2019” shows just how warped your perception of a “bad summer” really is

wait until a june 1953 repeat lol

2019 was one of the most persistently rainy summers ever in my area.    And yes.... I realize it was also warmer than normal.   But in terms of days with rain... it was top tier.    And that was his point.    There are not many summers which get progressively wetter in JJA... but that actually happened in many places in 2019.   It happened for TacomaWaWx that summer and he has mentioned that several times.

It rained on almost half the days in July and August in 2019 out here at the Snoqualmie Falls station.    That is pretty rare even during wet summers.

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25 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

haha saying “even during summer 2019” shows just how warped your perception of a “bad summer” really is

wait until a june 1953 repeat lol

Looked it up... June 1953 was pretty bad.   But then it only rained on 13 days out here in July and August of that year which is about half of what occurred in 2019 in those months.  

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12Z GFS sticking with the nice weekend theme... and holds off the rain until next Thursday.     Also backs off again on the deep troughing later next week compared to its 00Z run.

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30 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

haha saying “even during summer 2019” shows just how warped your perception of a “bad summer” really is

wait until a june 1953 repeat lol

I’m well aware that 2019 wasn’t historically bad…I’m just saying even during a wet summer we get 10-15 day dry spells. That summer was probably my favorite summer ever. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

I’m well aware that 2019 wasn’t historically bad…I’m just saying even during a wet summer we get 10-15 day dry spells. That summer was probably my favorite summer ever. 

That was the only summer in our 20 years here when did not need to water anything at all.    It was quite exceptional in that regard.

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I looked up 2019 because I didn't remember it being REALLY WET. Oh that's because it wasn't. More like it actually rained a couple times. 

Seattle:

July - 7 days with measurable precip. 1.15" +0.45"

Aug - 5 days with precip. 1.20" +0.32

Total: 12 out of 62 days with measurable precip. 2.35" total +0.77"

PDX:

July - 6 days with precip. 0.80" +0.15"

Aug - 7 days with precip. 1.23" +0.56"

Total: 13 out of 62 days with precip. 2.03" total +0.71

SLE:

July - 3 days with precip. 0.42" -0.04"

Aug - 5 days with precip. 0.32" -0.13"

Total: 8 out of 62 days with precip. 0.74" total -0.17.

Of course June was very dry. If we look at JJA for Sea Tac they ran a +0.10" precip departure. SOGGY. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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