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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


The Blob

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14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

That storm was insane, but it was largely sleet that transitioned to 1-2" freezing rain, with another half inch or so falling on the 20th. Of course it was coming on top of a 10"+ snowpack so the trees were already weighed down. 

Probably the most devastating ice storm on record for Portland-Vancouver and the western gorge, along with February 1-2, 1916. The power was out in Clark County for about a week.

 

Imagine if that was all snow! Same with February 2021 in my location, if the low was 10 miles to the south, I would've had 10-12 inches of snow, but I had 4.5 inches and a lot of sleet and some ice.

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5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

In-laws just lost power in samammish. They are surrounded by 160ft conifers with trunks merely 3ft in diameter. Perhaps that was a mistake.

Maybe a derecho blew through…

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Weather can't make up its mind this afternoon. Varying wildly between sunbreaks, windy rain showers, or both at the same time. At least we're finally up to the mid-50s. If it weren't so gusty, today would be a good day

Shred it!

Greater Maple Valley area @ ~550' AGL

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2 hours ago, Doiinko said:

How did Eugene manage to get this cold in 2013? Even with snow cover and arctic air, a 19/-10 day is insane.

Screenshot_20220518-111426.png

This location has the capability of being legendary. Just usually a long waiting game but it will eventually happen again. We are by far the most due part of the region to have a sub-freezing high.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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30 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Imagine if that was all snow! Same with February 2021 in my location, if the low was 10 miles to the south, I would've had 10-12 inches of snow, but I had 4.5 inches and a lot of sleet and some ice.

Unfortunately the juiciest Pacific systems usually come in with enough warming air aloft to transition us to rain or freezing rain in a case like that with an extremely cold air mass at the surface. 

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6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This location has the capability of being legendary. Just usually a long waiting game but it will eventually happen again. We are by far the most due part of the region to have a sub-freezing high.

Eugene Airport is in a pretty similar geographic/topographic predicament to Corvallis. Both spots are quite favorable for inversions and cold air damming. I think @SilverFallsAndrewonce said Corvallis is one of the best spots for snow and cold in the Willamette Valley.

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13 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This location has the capability of being legendary. Just usually a long waiting game but it will eventually happen again. We are by far the most due part of the region to have a sub-freezing high.

Definitely 

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

The GFS was projecting a deep trough here with a cat3 hurricane slamming New Orleans. :lol: 

It was nowhere close with the large scale pattern. A complete and utter failure.  

That's one fascinating aspect of models. They can be very wrong/right overall, but the opposite for micro-areas that matter much more for an individual person.

Of course, overall the Euro owns all other models for both large-scale and small-scale pattern projections, but it's still not uncommon to see results diverge.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

That storm was insane. Just completely out of the realm of what I even thought possible in August here. Many places broke their May-September wind records by well over 10 degrees.

The fact such a strong storm came right at the end of (at the time) the hottest Summer on record made it even more amazing.

I think 2015 is still easily the hottest summer on record for the PNW overall.

A forum for the end of the world.

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10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Eugene Airport is in a pretty similar geographic/topographic predicament to Corvallis. Both spots are quite favorable for inversions and cold air damming. I think @SilverFallsAndrewonce said Corvallis is one of the best spots for snow and cold in the Willamette Valley.

Corvallis definitely did well in 2013/2014. My area can do really well sometimes when the east winds go over the west hills and meet the warmer air in a system. In onshore flow though we get rain shadowed.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I think 2015 is still easily the hottest summer on record for the PNW overall.

2021 was second by 0.1 of a degree at PDX, and farther south it was much warmer. Up north in the Puget Sound though, 2015 was warmer I think.

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42 years ago today, the Cascades were doing some trolling…

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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6 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

2021 was second by 0.1 of a degree at PDX, and farther south it was much warmer. Up north in the Puget Sound though, 2015 was warmer I think.

It was closer than I thought overall but seems like easily more areas were +4-6 in the western lowlands in 2015. And near the sound and coastal areas were cooler in 2021.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Thanks for sharing, I only get precip totals for the Euro.

Unquestionably historic, if it happens.

This trough digging much more significantly than what was originally shown is win for here and there... gives us a gorgeous weekend and dumps precip on you.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This trough digging much more significantly than what was originally shown is win for here and there... gives us a gorgeous weekend and dumps precip on you.   

Yep. 

Everything is fully leafed out now even in the foothills, so definitely concerned about tree damage at this point.

A forum for the end of the world.

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42 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It was closer than I thought overall but seems like easily more areas were +4-6 in the western lowlands in 2015. And near the sound and coastal areas were cooler in 2021.

image.png

 

image.png

Those 2015 departures are insane. I don’t think we’ve ever seen more than a +4 departure here in JJA.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Those 2015 departures are insane. I don’t think we’ve ever seen more than a +4 departure here in JJA.

SLE departures for 2015:

June: +6.6

July: +3.8

August: +2.0

 

PDX: 

June: 6.1

July: 3.7

August: 1.8

 

SEA:

June: 5.7

July: 4.1

August: 1.3

 

Pretty crazy summer. And the winters surrounding it were bad as well.

 

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

So nice that we paid for our warmest summer ever by soon following it up with the 2nd, 4th, and 5th warmest summers ever.

2015 was our 7th hottest summer on record as well. Those +TNH patterns are the f**king worst.

Similar story with the summer madness. 7 out of the top-10 hottest summers on record have occurred since 2010. At some point it has to end, right?

FB858824-D5FE-45CF-B423-AC65F641BE1D.webp

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So many summers over the last decade have been dominated by +TNH/warm pool forcing.

End result is broad Hadley Cell/4CH, which torches the coasts while dropping troughs into the Plains/Midwest. Worst possible pattern for the large population centers across the country.

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

So many summers over the last decade have been dominated by +TNH/warm pool forcing.

End result is broad Hadley Cell/4CH, which torches the coasts while dropping troughs into the Plains/Midwest. Worst possible pattern for the large population centers across the country.

Mid June snowstorm across the country as payback for all of these warm summers???

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3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Mid June snowstorm across the country as payback for all of these warm summers???

Hopefully. We need at least a decade of cool summers nationally.

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45 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yep. 

Everything is fully leafed out now even in the foothills, so definitely concerned about tree damage at this point.

Currently 83 degrees in Fort Collins with a winter storm watch in effect. 

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This is an incredible compilation of videos of the Andover KS tornado.

Easy to see how deaths occur in these.

 

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z EPS. Starting to match EOFs for MJO p7/8 under in-situ low AAM, similar to other guidance.

737C25D9-0C72-4A2E-A482-FEA2191BB8DA.gif

I like that blue color from November thru March. Now I would rather see that pretty orange and red color! 
 

My post was WAY more technical than yours so take that!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Almost certainly overdone, but this would be the largest snowstorm this late on record for the Denver area. Next closest would be the 15" that fell on 4/26/72. Could really use the precip.

gfs_asnow_swus_14.png

Pretty nice December followed.

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