May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interesting how dry things were in the SH subtropics at that altitude since 2013.

The eruption reversed it in an instant.

Doesn't seem to have much of an effect.   2004 and 2009 were warm summers... 2008 and 2011 were cool summers.   And that graph looks about the same through that period.

[smerfylicious]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Stratospheric H2O anomaly from Hunga Tonga is bonkers.

That looks like it's going to stick around for a couple years as an affect.

[NWbyNW]

Nice Saturday.  Blue skies and sunny after the clouds burned off in the late morning hours. Out of the blue this evening, a massive storm cell (or something) formed and is dumping over the Snohomish Valley and into the foothills.  Couldn't get it all in one shot. Hit 61F today. Currently 54F.

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Surprised to see this as I was leaving my house a little earlier.

We barely got a few sprinkles about 15 minutes after the seeing this 

[MossMan]

And another here in Sedro. 

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

That looks like it's going to stick around for a couple years as an affect.

Apparently... increased water vapor in the stratosphere helps warm the climate.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/09/130930161525.htm#:~:text=Summary%3A,climate%2C according to new research. 

"We find that this stratospheric water vapor feedback is probably responsible for 5-10 percent of the total warming you get from adding carbon dioxide to the climate," Dessler explained. "While it's not really surprising that this process is going on, we were surprised at how important the process is for our climate system."

[MossMan]

And more! Longest duration rainbow ever! 

[Meatyorologist]

[NWbyNW]

Photos do not do it justice.  The storm cell and the sunset are providing some truly spectacular sights!  Wish all ya-all weather lovers could see it.

[TT-SEA]

This article goes into depth about how a mysterious drop in stratospheric water vapor in recent years has been linked to slowing down the rate of global warming.   It looks like that has been completely reversed with this eruption.   It will be interesting to see what happens now... but it sure seems like this will accelerate global warming.    Stratospheric water vapor is a "potent greenhouse gas" according to this article.  

https://www.aaas.org/news/science-slowing-rise-global-temperature-linked-declining-stratospheric-water-vaporhttps://www.aaas.org/news/science-slowing-rise-global-temperature-linked-declining-stratospheric-water-vapor

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, NWbyNW said:

Photos do not do it justice.  The storm cell and the sunset are providing some truly spectacular sights!  Wish all ya-all weather lovers could see it.

I always enjoy your photos.

[MossMan]

How about another! Wide shot! Never mind the porta potties 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

How about another! Wide shot! Never mind the porta potties 

Perfect conditions for long-lasting rainbows.    Clear skies to the west and a slow moving rain cell moving southward to your east.   

[Phil]

57 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Doesn't seem to have much of an effect.   2004 and 2009 were warm summers... 2008 and 2011 were cool summers.   And that graph looks about the same through that period.

I didn’t say it had anything to do with summer weather there..? 

But 2004 and 2009 are both terrible analogs to this year, so you’d expect substantial differences.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This article goes into depth about how a mysterious drop in stratospheric water vapor in recent years has been linked to slowing down the rate of global warming.   It looks like that has been completely reversed with this eruption.   It will be interesting to see what happens now... but it sure seems like this will accelerate global warming.    Stratospheric water vapor is a "potent greenhouse gas" according to this article.  

https://www.aaas.org/news/science-slowing-rise-global-temperature-linked-declining-stratospheric-water-vaporhttps://www.aaas.org/news/science-slowing-rise-global-temperature-linked-declining-stratospheric-water-vapor

Could be offset by ash emissions but only time will tell. I'm still not entirely convinced that the Tonga eruption was a VEI6, or that it will have any noticeable climate impacts, warm or cold.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

I didn’t say it had anything to do with summer weather there..? 

But 2004 and 2009 are both terrible analogs to this year, so you’d expect substantial differences.

I was saying it does not appear to have much of a tangible effect on our weather overall... not talking about analogs at all. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Could be offset by ash emissions but only time will tell. I'm still not entirely convinced that the Tonga eruption was a VEI6, or that it will have any noticeable climate impacts, warm or cold.

Not sure either... but I don't think there was much ash injected that high.     All things being equal... pumping a bunch of water vapor into the stratosphere is going to have a warming effect overall.    There doesn't seem to be much room for debate on that.

[Phil]

58 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

That looks like it's going to stick around for a couple years as an affect.

Oh for sure. It was a VEI6 eruption..the effects from those can last decades.

The amount of H2O injected into the stratosphere is insane and will affect the climate system for years to come. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was saying it does not appear to have much of a tangible effect on our weather overall... not talking about analogs at all. 

Well it may be related to the +PMM/warm pool extension in recent years, which does affect your weather.

As for whether the eruption will affect the weather/climate patterns across the NH, the answer is almost certainly yes, but I’m not sure exactly how yet. I don’t think anyone knows the answer to that.

[Phil]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This article goes into depth about how a mysterious drop in stratospheric water vapor in recent years has been linked to slowing down the rate of global warming.   It looks like that has been completely reversed with this eruption.   It will be interesting to see what happens now... but it sure seems like this will accelerate global warming.    Stratospheric water vapor is a "potent greenhouse gas" according to this article.  

https://www.aaas.org/news/science-slowing-rise-global-temperature-linked-declining-stratospheric-water-vaporhttps://www.aaas.org/news/science-slowing-rise-global-temperature-linked-declining-stratospheric-water-vapor

That’s flummoxing because the period referenced there is 2000-2009, and declines in stratospheric water didn’t take off until after that “pause” was almost over.

I think those earlier changes in stratospheric H2O were a product of an invigorated mass circulation.

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Could be offset by ash emissions but only time will tell. I'm still not entirely convinced that the Tonga eruption was a VEI6, or that it will have any noticeable climate impacts, warm or cold.

In theory it could have a warming impact and also be a VEI6. This stuff isn’t always straightforward.

[TT-SEA]

Interestingly... the pattern on the 00Z GFS next Sunday is almost identical to the pattern today.     I would be down for a repeat of today and tomorrow next Sunday and Monday.   

[Deweydog]

The 00z and MDW:

Further proof that there is no such thing as a benevolent god.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Looks like we will end May with barely above average rainfall and <10% above average for the year. You would think we have a huge surplus based on some commenters here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Looks like we will end May with barely above average rainfall and <10% above average for the year. You would think we have a huge surplus based on some commenters here. 

Yeah it’s beyond ridiculous.

[Deweydog]

The Kanadian is a bit more komforting.

Edited May 22, 2022 by Deweydog

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah it’s beyond ridiculous.

Hopefully the Tonga eruption warms our climate to the point of ecosystem death so we never have to experience a spring like this again  

Edited May 22, 2022 by Cascadia_Wx

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Looks like we will end May with barely above average rainfall and <10% above average for the year. You would think we have a huge surplus based on some commenters here. 

Nice surplus up here for the water year.  And about 50 days in a row now colder than normal with rain on most days.  Not normal Joshua.  Don't get used to it.

[Doinko]

17 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Looks like we will end May with barely above average rainfall and <10% above average for the year. You would think we have a huge surplus based on some commenters here. 

I feel like PDX managed to miss almost all of the heavy showers this month though.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nice surplus up here for the water year.  And about 50 days in a row now colder than normal with rain on most days.  Not normal Joshua.  Don't get used to it.

I hope the PNW stays generally nice and cool through the summer, hopefully wet at times too.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nice surplus up here for the water year.  And about 50 days in a row now colder than normal with rain on most days.  Not normal Joshua.  Don't get used to it.

I hope you didn’t get used to the last 9 years.  

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hopefully the Tonga eruption warms our climate to the point to ecosystem death so we never have to experience a spring like this again  

Very good chance next spring is much warmer.    Won't be too hard.   Climo would be much warmer.  And this spring is in the rear view mirror now.   

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I hope you didn’t get used to the last 9 years.  

Normal summer here is pretty nice.  Could do without 90+ degree heat and smoke.  That sort of ruins summer.    

[TT-SEA]

SEA is about 7.5 inches above normal for the water year... and 3.5 inches above normal for the year.  

OLM is over 9 inches above normal for the water year and 4 inches above normal for the year. 

Its been unusually wet up here since last fall.    Not really debatable.   

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA is about 7.5 inches above normal for the water year... and 3.5 inches above normal for the year.  

OLM is over 9 inches above normal for the water year and 4 inches above normal for the year. 

Its been unusually wet up here since last fall.    Not really debatable.

Then why bring it up again, again?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Then why bring it up again, again?

Beyond ridiculous!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow Tim’s having yet another Saturday night melt down. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Oh for sure. It was a VEI6 eruption..the effects from those can last decades.

The amount of H2O injected into the stratosphere is insane and will affect the climate system for years to come. 

I thought the VEI scale was based on tephra, which is currently under investigation? Correct me if I am wrong. I'm not super well versed on this stuff, just going by what I remember.

[Meatyorologist]

Global warming is, in fact, not a good thing, and nobody should wish for more of it.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow Tim’s having yet another Saturday night melt down. 

Having a good time actually.   I sense some squirming amongst those who think climo should be constant cold and rain.  Because of course it's not.   And never will be.