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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


The Blob

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Just now, Phil said:

How’s this for rain, Tim?

E5CE120C-DA08-48E9-A9AC-4DDECF0F91A4.jpeg

That is my favorite way to get rain... I would be loving that.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Some significant improvement on the 00Z GEM for the second half of the long weekend... probably doesn't mean much but hope springs eternal.  

It is a significant outlier from its own ensemble mean.

Doesn’t mean it’s wrong, though.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

It is a significant outlier from its own ensemble mean.

Doesn’t mean it’s wrong, though.

Odds are pretty low at this point.    But the 00Z GEM ensemble is not bad for Memorial Day... and actually a little improved over its 12Z run.     

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-3955200.png

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Odds are pretty low at this point.    But the 00Z GEM ensemble is not bad for Memorial Day... and actually a little improved over its 12Z run.     

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-3955200.png

What’s the game plan this year? Trip to San Diego? Or just BBQing in the rain?

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

What’s the game plan? San Diego? Or just BBQ in the rain? 🍔 

Not sure... we have reservations at Lake Chelan but probably cancel that if its not going to be any better over there.    Not going to BBQ in the rain... that is fine when its 75 degrees but pretty silly when its 50 degrees and windy.    I would rather watch Netflix by the fireplace than bother with that crap.   

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00z GFS is awesome though I wouldn't mind if it were to end on a better note. Looks like it's about to pop up a week long period of ridging.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Feels like a summer evening out there with 60s and clouds. Very pleasant. Might have a midnight high tomorrow.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Feels like a summer evening out there with 60s and clouds. Very pleasant. Might have a midnight high tomorrow.

Hopefully not.   Its 59 at SEA right now and the ECMWF shows a high of 62 tomorrow.   Side note... during DST the new day starts at 1 a.m.

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57 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Trying to remember the last time we had a 59mph gust.

The south valley will eventually have another solid wind event. Just a matter of time. Same with the sub-freezing high streak.

On the plus side, snow has been relatively commonplace compared to normal since the 2010s began so that’s way better than the 15 years before it here.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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6 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The south valley will eventually have another solid wind event. Just a matter of time. Same with the sub-freezing high streak.

On the plus side, snow has been relatively commonplace compared to normal since the 2010s began so that’s way better than the 15 years before it here.

How much snow have you had in the past few years?

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8 hours ago, MossMan said:

Color is trying! And I’m case I haven’t mentioned it yet, I love my tractor! 

544D78C0-CCB4-44F5-8958-1D62C8843790.jpeg

C60A7FC8-E98B-4D93-A4BE-2B0C252CBABA.jpeg

6664A261-4C0D-43D4-BF28-B52843F5EE55.jpeg

Great looking yard!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

00z GFS is awesome though I wouldn't mind if it were to end on a better note. Looks like it's about to pop up a week long period of ridging.

No doubt things have dried out considerably from where we were a couple of weeks ago.  The ensemble mean on 850s shows mostly cool on temp though.

I was in Liberty yesterday and it is hands down the wettest I have ever seen over there this time of year.  Still a lot of mud holes on the Jeep roads.  Still almost totally bare trees and shrubs as well.  There is also an incredible amount of snow on the Cascades along I-90.  No water problems this year....to say the least.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt things have dried out considerably from where we were a couple of weeks ago.  The ensemble mean on 850s shows mostly cool on temp though.

I was in Liberty yesterday and it is hands down the wettest I have ever seen over there this time of year.  Still a lot of mud holes on the Jeep roads.  Still almost totally bare trees and shrubs as well.  There is also an incredible amount of snow on the Cascades along I-90.  No water problems this year....to say the least.

Our big leaf maple on the side of our property (which is probably 40 years old and massive) has still not reached full leaf out.     It becomes a wall when its totally done... but I can still see through it.     I have never seen it take this long to reach its summer stage.     Not even close to this late in 2008 and 2011.   I doubt I ever see it go this late again.    This has to be about the longest it can possibly take.   

And I assume Meatyorologist was happy about the GFS because it showed lots of rain... and rain on most days.   Which of course the environment really does not need up here at this point.   But he likes what he likes.  

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Actually have some blue sky and just thin clouds this morning with the sun peaking through.    ECMWF insists that a c-zone will set up over King County this afternoon... so it will be raining later today.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sunny here this morning. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Looks cold for Utah

Cold in Utah and Colorado usually produces really nice weather up here at this time of year.

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Very mild morning, looks like the back half of May this year will be somewhat warm. We are now into the time of year where it will be reliably sunny and dry. Rain will return in about 4, maybe 5 months. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Our big leaf maple on the side of our property (which is probably 40 years old and massive) has still not reached full leaf out.     It becomes a wall when its totally done... but I can still see through it.     I have never seen it take this long to reach its summer stage.     Not even close to this late in 2008 and 2011.   I doubt I ever see it go this late again.    This has to be about the longest it can possibly take.   

And I assume Meatyorologist was happy about the GFS because it showed lots of rain... and rain on most days.   Which of course the environment really does not need up here at this point.   But he likes what he likes.  

Yeah the trees are pretty much as far behind schedule as they can get. Gonna take until June for everything to leaf out completely, although the upcoming weather will help it along a lot. And if you think it’s slow on the westside… here’s Sisters. Bend was similar. Think some trees were still bare!

4562F1A2-B225-48AC-85D9-78ECC47309BB.thumb.jpeg.5007aae43aab60368d423321dbd6efb0.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Yeah the trees are pretty much as far behind schedule as they can get. Gonna take until June for everything to leaf out completely, although the upcoming weather will help it along a lot. And if you think it’s slow on the westside… here’s Sisters. Bend was similar. Think some trees were still bare!

4562F1A2-B225-48AC-85D9-78ECC47309BB.thumb.jpeg.5007aae43aab60368d423321dbd6efb0.jpeg

Wow... that is crazy to see bare trees when it almost June.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Yeah the trees are pretty much as far behind schedule as they can get. Gonna take until June for everything to leaf out completely, although the upcoming weather will help it along a lot. And if you think it’s slow on the westside… here’s Sisters. Bend was similar. Think some trees were still bare!

4562F1A2-B225-48AC-85D9-78ECC47309BB.thumb.jpeg.5007aae43aab60368d423321dbd6efb0.jpeg

we have a few bare species still in Spokane.  I have a Silver Maple that about 75% leafed but the leaves still aren't completely opened.  2 River Birches (which are native the the eastern US) that are at about 30% leafed ATM.  Very weird.

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7 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The south valley will eventually have another solid wind event. Just a matter of time. Same with the sub-freezing high streak.

On the plus side, snow has been relatively commonplace compared to normal since the 2010s began so that’s way better than the 15 years before it here.

Indeed.  Up here the winters have been way better than the 1999 through 2006 period.  The big flip here came with the winter of 2006-07.  I think your lack of freezing high temps has involved a certain amount of bad luck.  We have had quite a number here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Very mild morning, looks like the back half of May this year will be somewhat warm. We are now into the time of year where it will be reliably sunny and dry. Rain will return in about 4, maybe 5 months. 

I dunno.  The GFS ensemble shows pretty chilly 850s for the next 2 weeks.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure... we have reservations at Lake Chelan but probably cancel that if its not going to be any better over there.    Not going to BBQ in the rain... that is fine when its 75 degrees but pretty silly when its 50 degrees and windy.    I would rather watch Netflix by the fireplace than bother with that crap.   

We BBQed in a thunderstorm one year. It was fun. But we do have a gazebo so it wasn’t actually raining on the dinner table, just the grill guy (yours truly, lol).

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I dunno.  The GFS ensemble shows pretty chilly 850s for the next 2 weeks.

And we don't usually get to reliably dry and sunny up here until July.      Andrew is speaking for his area.  

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Indeed.  Up here the winters have been way better than the 1999 through 2006 period.  The big flip here came with the winter of 2006-07.  I think your lack of freezing high temps has involved a certain amount of bad luck.  We have had quite a number here.

I don't think it is bad luck. The airmasses which have produced sub-freezing highs up there have not penetrated as far south, and we also haven't had a lot of cold inversion days in winter these past few years. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

And we don't usually get to reliably dry and sunny up here until July.      Andrew is speaking for his area.  

We live in a Mediterranean climate.   

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't think it is bad luck. The airmasses which have produced sub-freezing highs up there have not penetrated as far south, and we also haven't had a lot of cold inversion days in winter these past few years. 

yup, and winters in Spokane over the last decade or so have generally gotten warmer too.  Pretty hard now to get a sub zero low.  use to consistently happen at least once a winter.

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23 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Yeah the trees are pretty much as far behind schedule as they can get. Gonna take until June for everything to leaf out completely, although the upcoming weather will help it along a lot. And if you think it’s slow on the westside… here’s Sisters. Bend was similar. Think some trees were still bare!

4562F1A2-B225-48AC-85D9-78ECC47309BB.thumb.jpeg.5007aae43aab60368d423321dbd6efb0.jpeg

It's the cold nights they get over there.  Quite amazing to see them that bare.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Vegetation update. From last night when it was cloudy. Grass is still pretty low. I would say this is what it has looked like in late April the past few years. 

A7E126D5-8C0B-43F3-8593-78DD18285EA1.jpeg

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Our big leaf maple on the side of our property (which is probably 40 years old and massive) has still not reached full leaf out.     It becomes a wall when its totally done... but I can still see through it.     I have never seen it take this long to reach its summer stage.     Not even close to this late in 2008 and 2011.   I doubt I ever see it go this late again.    This has to be about the longest it can possibly take.   

And I assume Meatyorologist was happy about the GFS because it showed lots of rain... and rain on most days.   Which of course the environment really does not need up here at this point.   But he likes what he likes.  

It’s not like this is the coldest April/May on record up there. It could easily take longer.

You’re at the same latitude as northern MN. It’s not supposed to be consistently warm up there right now.

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