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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


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Saturday looks really MOIST.

gfs_apcpn24_nwus_19.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

yup, and winters in Spokane over the last decade or so have generally gotten warmer too.  Pretty hard now to get a sub zero low.  use to consistently happen at least once a winter.

I'm really surprised.  We have had a number of so so Arctic airmasses in recent years.  No doubt we are due for a region wide mega blast though.  This winter is probably going to be our best shot for a while.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s not like this is the coldest April/May on record up there. It could easily take longer.

You’re at the same latitude as northern MN. It’s not supposed to be consistently warm up there right now.

It's not as cold as 2011. Even with the warm weather this week, we'll probably still end up below average though.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s not like this is the coldest April/May on record up there. It could easily take longer.

You’re at the same latitude as northern MN. It’s not supposed to be consistently warm up there right now.

Probably like 3rd or 4th coldest.  WA ranked 3rd coldest April on record although that was more heavily weighted from the Cascades eastward.  This month has been downright cold...at least up till now.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's not as cold as 2011. Even with the warm weather this week, we'll probably still end up below average though.

Probably?  Has it not been as cold down there as it has up here.  SEA is running nearly -6 for the month to date.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Saturday looks really MOIST.

gfs_apcpn24_nwus_19.png

What's crazy is that as we're about to flip to June for this timeframe, parts of the Rockies in Montana, Idaho and Colorado are still getting significant snowfall with this one. 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Probably?  Has it not been as cold down there as it has up here.  SEA is running nearly -6 for the month to date.

It’s been in line with where 99% of Western Washington has been this month... About 3-4F below normal. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s not like this is the coldest April/May on record up there. It could easily take longer.

You’re at the same latitude as northern MN. It’s not supposed to be consistently warm up there right now.

SEA was -4.2 for April and is currently at -5.4 for May.

This has been a seriously cold April/May period.    And being at the same latitude as northern MN is completely irrelevant in terms of normal leaf out.    We start leafing out 2+ months ahead of northern MN in most years because we don't have anything close to the winter cold they have over there.   Our trees don't go into deep dormancy here like they do there.    As you well know.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z GFS is improved for the second half of the holiday weekend... looking more like the ECMWF now in kicking the trough east faster.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is improved for the second half of the holiday weekend... looking more like the ECMWF now in kicking the trough east faster.  

Good. Hopefully we'll get a decent Holiday! Don't need to be too warm or hot. Just want some sun. :D

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Probably?  Has it not been as cold down there as it has up here.  SEA is running nearly -6 for the month to date.

We're usually warmer than you. And we are in an area that is largely rapidly warming and drying...with this year being the first to buck that trend here in a long time. And we're still like -3F not -6F.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 hours ago, Doiinko said:

How much snow have you had in the past few years?

Since 2012? Like 60"

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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It was the 5th coldest April at Silver Falls. 

1) 2011

2) 2008

3) 1955

4) 1975

5) 2022 

 

So cold, but about 2F off the record. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We're usually warmer than you. And we are in an area that is largely rapidly warming and drying...with this year being the first to buck that trend here in a long time. And we're still like -3F not -6F.

He's cherry picking the biggest outlier in W. Washington. Olympia is -4.0, BLI -3.3

Eugene has a slightly more negative departure than Salem and Portland so far this month. Largely because of over performance on low temps. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We're usually warmer than you. And we are in an area that is largely rapidly warming and drying...with this year being the first to buck that trend here in a long time. And we're still like -3F not -6F.

You say this all the time but it doesn’t make any sense. Why exactly would areas to the south warm faster than areas to the north with global warming? Seems for our region the warming has been fairly uniform.

I’ve always been under the impression that arctic areas are projected to warm the fastest due to climate change with the least amount of change in the tropics, so if anything it’s the opposite.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is improved for the second half of the holiday weekend... looking more like the ECMWF now in kicking the trough east faster.  

Monday still looks much cooler than average across guidance.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

He's cherry picking the biggest outlier in W. Washington. Olympia is -4.0, BLI -3.3

Eugene has a slightly more negative departure than Salem and Portland so far this month. Largely because of over performance on low temps. 

Cherry picking the major reporting station in the Seattle area?   😃

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Just now, Phil said:

Monday still looks much cooler than average across guidance.

I said it was improved.    Its moving the trough to the east faster.    Details are still up in the air.

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8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Good. Hopefully we'll get a decent Holiday! Don't need to be too warm or hot. Just want some sun. :D

Totally agree.

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

You say this all the time but it doesn’t make any sense. Why exactly would areas to the south warm faster than areas to the north with global warming? Seems for our region the warming has been fairly uniform.

I’ve always been under the impression that arctic areas are projected to warm the fastest due to climate change with the least amount of change in the tropics, so if anything it’s the opposite.

That’s how climate change has worked throughout the Pleistocene. High latitudes see larger changes, tropics are relatively stable.

During the last ice age, the tropics only cooled ~ 2°C on average. Some areas were as warm as today!

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Cherry picking the major reporting station in the Seattle area?   😃

Okay Tim. If it was anyone but me bringing this up we know you would be. That -6F is not representative of anywhere else in W. Washington. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

You say this all the time but it doesn’t make any sense. Why exactly would areas to the south warm faster than areas to the north with global warming? Seems for our region the warming has been fairly uniform.

I’ve always been under the impression that arctic areas are projected to warm the fastest due to climate change with the least amount of change in the tropics, so if anything it’s the opposite.

The Medford and Boise forecast areas are running bigger average departures than anywhere in the Seattle forecast area, aside from Sea Tac.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I said it was improved.    Its moving the trough to the east faster.    Details are still up in the air.

The details are cooler than average with onshore flow, from the looks of it.

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Okay Tim. If it was anyone but me bringing this up we know you would be. That -6F is not representative of anywhere else in W. Washington. 

OLM was -4 in April and is at -4 again in May.

Not too different than SEA.    Its been unusually cold up here.  

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Just now, Phil said:

The details are cooler than average with onshore flow, from the looks of it.

Don't get into micro-forecasting here.    The pattern looks pretty similar to this past weekend... which was quite nice.   Details are still up in the air though... just looking at 500mb pattern right now.

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Just now, Phil said:

The details are cooler than average with onshore flow, from the looks of it.

That's my take on it too. Which is great, we've had a lot of rain, hopefully we get some more, but dry weather will be nice. Hoping to get the garden in this week. Rototilled the garden patch yesterday, very damp and muddy, so hopefully it dries out some more today and I'll hit it again this evening. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

OLM was -4 in April and is at -4 again in May.

Not too different than SEA.    Its been unusually cold up here.  

We were -4.2F in April and around there so far in May, should creep up a bit this week, but we'll probably be solidly below normal. There has been pretty much no N/S gradient in the PNW...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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April and May (so far) for Oregon and Washington. Uniformly cold up and down the I-5 corridor. The biggest difference seems to be east or west of the Cascades, especially in April.

C680BD41-88E5-4752-8084-D7242E84933A.png

DE538E89-6218-436E-B1AC-FA4842297AFB.png

But if you look really closely you can see a patch of bright pink over Covington and burnt orange over Springfield.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We were -4.2F in April and around there so far in May, should creep up a bit this week, but we'll probably be solidly below normal. There has been pretty much no N/S gradient in the PNW...

I agree... there is no N/S gradient.

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Oh hell yes. Cold CONUS pattern with a supressed jet/4CH and building heights in NE Canada. One can hope! #VolcanicSummer2022

B7F6C631-EF49-41CE-B9C3-817F0EDEF786.png

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12z GFS is showing 2.16" here by the end of the month, that would put us well past our May record. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Oh hell yes. Cold CONUS pattern with a supressed jet/4CH and building heights in NE Canada. One can hope! #VolcanicSummer2022

B7F6C631-EF49-41CE-B9C3-817F0EDEF786.png

Its not a volcanic summer.   And the GFS at 288 hours will be entirely different on the next run and again on the run after that.   😃

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Its not a volcanic summer.   And the GFS at 288 hours will be entirely different on the next run and again on the run after that.   😃

It is a volcanic summer. Just in a different sort of way. Look at the stratosphere, man.

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10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

April and May (so far) for Oregon and Washington. Uniformly cold up and down the I-5 corridor. The biggest difference seems to be east or west of the Cascades, especially in April.

C680BD41-88E5-4752-8084-D7242E84933A.png

DE538E89-6218-436E-B1AC-FA4842297AFB.png

But if you look really closely you can see a patch of bright pink over Covington and burnt orange over Springfield.

When did I say we were above normal in Apr-May?

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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We’re -4.4 for May here…with 3.22” of rain this month. Still looking good for May to end up wetter than April and finish with a bigger negative departure as well. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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