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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


The Blob

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8 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I think Mark Nelsen has said that the west metro area is pretty bad for extreme amounts of snow as well. Not sure if that includes my area, as we do better than Hillsboro/Beaverton a lot of the time, but the west metro does seem to miss out on the snow a lot.

The inner west metro (Hillsboro/Tigard/Beaverton) really needs strong gorge outflow to get the bigger totals. Like with the Willamette Valley to the south, they'll often end up on the wrong side of the equation when there's a shallow gorge outflow or warm air bubble aloft type of event like January 1980, January 1998, and February 2021. 

Once you get west of Hillsboro that issue is negated more by the cold air damming you get by being closer to the Coast Range. So Gaston, Forest Grove, Banks, and North Plains can do pretty well with the more borderline overrunning events when Portland doesn't.

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Just now, Phil said:

So both onshore and offshore flow patterns are sunnier up there than in Seattle? :lol: 

 

In the Summer, weak onshore flow is sunnier up there. In the Winter, offshore flow is sunnier.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

In the Summer, weak onshore flow is sunnier up there. In the Winter, offshore flow is sunnier.

So offshore flow is cloudier up there in the summer? 🤔 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think Tim s wife can do it. 

3FD2568B-E2C1-44DE-93DF-37D833CFEE94.jpeg

 

Are you serious about this?   😀

First of all... she is not walking all the way to downtown NB.   She is going to the service road at the bottom of our hill... which is the valley floor.      It takes about 10-12 minutes.   Every time.    Then about 25-30 minutes coming back.    

Our private road goes from basically the valley floor on the bottom to our house at the top.    There are 41 homes on our road.    Even a 90-year old with a walker could get to the valley floor in an hour and half!    

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First person to make a Preference Wars thread gets a special banner

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

So offshore flow is cloudier up there in the summer? 🤔 

No.   Offshore flow is very rare in the summer.   And quite common in the winter.   But any offshore flow at any time of the year is generally sunnier up here.   Offshore flow in the summer means heat wave and its sunny everywhere... but still there might be more clouds and fog right near the water.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The inner west metro (Hillsboro/Tigard/Beaverton) really needs strong gorge outflow to get the bigger totals. Like with the Willamette Valley to the south, they'll often end up on the wrong side of the equation when there's a shallow gorge outflow or warm air bubble aloft type of event like January 1980, January 1998, and February 2021. 

Once you get west of Hillsboro that issue is negated more by the cold air damming you get by being closer to the Coast Range. So Gaston, Forest Grove, Banks, and North Plains can do pretty well with the more borderline overrunning events when Portland doesn't.

I had about 4.5 inches in Feb 2021, the line between a snow and zr was a bit to the south I would've had a lot more. My area did really well in Jan 2017 though, 13 inches with that, while Hillsboro/Beaverton had 8 or something. I'm not sure what caused my area to have that much though.

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Are you serious about this?   😀

First of all... she is not walking all the way to downtown NB.   She is going to the service road at the bottom of our hill... which is the valley floor.      It takes about 10-12 minutes.   Every time.    Then about 25-30 minutes coming back.    

Our private road goes from basically the valley floor on the bottom to our house at the top.     

I was serious. Even NB isn’t that far. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I had about 4.5 inches in Feb 2021, the line between a snow and zr was a bit to the south I would've had a lot more. My area did really well in Jan 2017 though, 13 inches with that, while Hillsboro/Beaverton had 8 or something. I'm not sure what caused my area to have that much though.

I seemed to do really well that winter, I had 18 inches total compared to the 11 at the PQR office.

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was serious. Even NB isn’t that far. 

I saw the time estimate of an hour and a half.   😀  

All I have to do to get to the valley floor is go down our little private road.   It takes about 90 seconds in a car... and about 10-12 minutes for my wife who tracks her time on her run every day.   

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I suspect marine inversions as shallow as those Bainbridge refers to probably occur during ridgy patterns/mid level subsidence. Correct?

Just watching visible satellite loops out there over the years it’s clear clouds preferentially bank against and over the terrain east of puget sound whenever a summer trough/ULL passes to the north. Seems like textbook orographic lifting to me.

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Big picture... the biggest disadvantage in my area is during spring troughing.    And that is normally only half of the time in spring.   But also why spring is my least favorite time of year.   Jim has the said the same thing for the same reason... its too gloomy at times.

The rest of the year... I don't really feel disadvantaged in my area in terms of sun.   And often have an advantage in the fall and winter... or more often it's just cloudy everywhere.   

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

I say I am a big fan of the 12z Euro control run since that is apparently a pertinent and acceptable forecasting tool now 

😀

The control run is like another shot at the ECMWF run.    When they agree its a good sign.     Many times they don't. 

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11 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I had about 4.5 inches in Feb 2021, the line between a snow and zr was a bit to the south I would've had a lot more. My area did really well in Jan 2017 though, 13 inches with that, while Hillsboro/Beaverton had 8 or something. I'm not sure what caused my area to have that much though.

1/10/17 was one for the ages when it comes to mid and upper level dynamics. Very east coast feel to the frontogenic orgy which occurred during that setup. As it was, it created fairly distinct line where the best dynamics occurred near and just south of DT Portland, carrying up through the west side of I-5 in Clark County. 

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

1/10/17 was one for the ages when it comes to mid and upper level dynamics. Very east coast feel to the frontogenic orgy which occurred during that setup. As it was, it created fairly distinct line where the best dynamics occurred near and just south of DT Portland, carrying up through the west side of I-5 in Clark County. 

Did the west hills have anything to do with the area that the best dynamics were? Looking at the snow totals map from the NWS, it looks like areas with proximity to them generally did better than other areas.

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@1000'NorthBend   Stop by around 4 p.m.    You can go with my wife and be at the stop sign at the bottom of Uplands Way on the valley floor in no time at all.    If you can keep up.      She has been doing it almost every day since 2003.  😃

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12 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z EPS looking pretty good for the coming trough. Lots of ensemble spread in the long range but it’s looking generally cool to near average 

F60BB61F-F514-4E7B-9544-AAFEDA9136EA.png

Average of phase 8-1 MJO orbits during the first half of June during -ENSO doesn’t have a strong signal in the PNW either way. Though of course it’s always state dependent in the end.

Strongest signals are for -NAO and a weaker 4CH during that part of the cycle. The resulting pattern often has troughing on both the east and west coasts with ridging in the middle, but not always.

But the signal does trend colder in the PNW as it continues into phases 2-3-4 (Indian Ocean/Indo-Pacific). However, under certain boundary conditions that evolution opens the door to a sprawling death ridge that builds out from the Plains and eventually smothers most the country, which is what I’m worried about this summer, since the background state is towards poleward z-cells. Years like 1988, 1995, 2012, 2016, etc, come to mind. And basically the entire dust bowl period.

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1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

Did the west hills have anything to do with the area that the best dynamics were? Looking at the snow totals map from the NWS, it looks like areas with proximity to them generally did better than other areas.

I don’t think the west hills were a huge factor, although obviously those living with some elevation along ground zero were gonna see the absolute best of the best when it came to low level dynamics and the most efficient accumulations. 

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

😀

The control run is like another shot at the ECMWF run.    When they agree its a good sign.     Many times they don't. 

I agree with this 100%. Red flag when the ECMWF operational and control run diverge wildly in the LR.

In this case, they’re pretty much in lockstep.

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27 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I had about 4.5 inches in Feb 2021, the line between a snow and zr was a bit to the south I would've had a lot more. My area did really well in Jan 2017 though, 13 inches with that, while Hillsboro/Beaverton had 8 or something. I'm not sure what caused my area to have that much though.

Seemed like the convective frontogenesis really exploded in and around both sides of the West Hills with some orographic flavor on 1/10/17. PDX and points east had some dry air mixing in during the latter stages of that and only had 8", but downtown had 12" and there were reports of 20" in the West Hills.

I live in a pretty ideal location within the metro and got nailed with both, 15"+ in February 2021 and 12"+ in January 2017. I like this area because downsloping and gorge outflow really doesn't hamper us as much as a bit further to the east, but we still benefit from the low level cold air being near the gorge. 

Edited by BLI snowman
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2 hours ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

I'm curious, has anyone ever successfully managed to get the last word in? Or would the back-and-forth truly never end if you didn't stop responding?

It never stops. It's as if this is a closed-loop system of smashing keyboard warriors about weather. 🤣

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Just now, Deweydog said:

I don’t think the west hills were a huge factor, although obviously those living with some elevation along ground zero were gonna see the absolute best of the best when it came to low level dynamics and the most efficient accumulations. 

I live somewhat near the West Hills in Bethany at around 250' elevation, and I've noticed that the east wind can be really strong down here when it accelerates down the hills. I think that may be what caused me to get 12-13 inches during that, but I'm not sure. I also did decent in Feb 2014, but recently I haven't done as well. I wonder how my area did in some historical storms though.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Seemed like the convective frontogenesis really exploded in and around both sides of the West Hills with some orographic flavor on 1/10/17. PDX only had some dry air mixing in during the latter stages of that and only had 8", but downtown had 12" and there were reports of 20" in the West Hills.

I live in a pretty ideal location within the metro and got nailed with both, 15"+ in February 2021 and 12"+ in January 2017. I like this area because downsloping and gorge outflow really doesn't hamper us as much as a bit further to the east, but we still benefit from the low level cold air being near the gorge. 

My area doesn't do well in the low level cold air setups, but did well in the 2017 one. In 2014 I had about 9 inches of snow, how was that event in the east metro area/areas in Clark County?

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Did you know that downtown Bend is only a 10 minute walk from the top of Pilot Butte?

Phil thinks I live at the top of Mt. Rainier.  

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Phil thinks I live at the top of Mt. Rainier.  

I’m serious, that banner offer is legit. Someone. Please.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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5 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I live somewhat near the West Hills in Bethany at around 250' elevation, and I've noticed that the east wind can be really strong down here when it accelerates down the hills. I think that may be what caused me to get 12-13 inches during that, but I'm not sure. I also did decent in Feb 2014, but recently I haven't done as well. I wonder how my area did in some historical storms though.

I don’t think the surface gradients helped or hindered in your case, just a matter of being in the fairly narrow corridor where lift was crazy strong, deep and persistent as the low level cold advected from the NE.

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New EPS weeklies are out. Cool AK/BC signal is fairly stable through the run, with the -ENSO tendency in the tropics continuing.

04B0250E-25FA-4B12-AF98-2D72DBD74536.gif

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5 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Dude, you want me to play the semantics game too? Sure, I'll get into semantics:

Below, I have bolded the sentence that I called a lie:

Firstly, let's cover definitions:

1) "Walk": To move at a regular pace by lifting and setting down each foot in turn, never having both feet off the ground at once.

2) "Valley Floor": The lowest part or bottom of a valley

3) "Few": a small or limited number, more than a couple, but less than several. Often refers to "3".


Now, let's evaluate your use of these terms one by one:

1) I do not care how fast your wife runs or how long she has been running. You said you could walk to the valley floor in a few minutes, which is a lie.

2) Below is a topographic map of our region. As you can see, the valley floor is not reached until about south fork of the Snoqualmie River (as you'd expect). It is not an arbitrary service road, it is the actual valley floor. 

image.thumb.png.d6635dae3f5528e944d0149e850d1f8b.png

3) No one is walking 2 to 3 miles in a "few" minutes, I don't care how downhill it is. I've walked to town, I've run to town, I've biked to town, in every possible way to get there. Never made it in a "few" minutes. 

Summary: You cannot walk to the valley floor in a few minutes. 😀

I clarified... 10-12 minutes.   And its a fact.    You are welcome to take my wife's route.   Uplands Way doubles the time because it goes so far out to the east.    Our back road is a straight shot to the valley floor.    

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8 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Dude, you want me to play the semantics game too? Sure, I'll get into semantics:

Below, I have bolded the sentence that I called a lie:

Firstly, let's cover definitions:

1) "Walk": To move at a regular pace by lifting and setting down each foot in turn, never having both feet off the ground at once.

2) "Valley Floor": The lowest part or bottom of a valley

3) "Few": a small or limited number, more than a couple, but less than several. Often refers to "3".


Now, let's evaluate your use of these terms one by one:

1) I do not care how fast your wife runs or how long she has been running. You said you could walk to the valley floor in a few minutes, which is a lie.

2) Below is a topographic map of our region. As you can see, the valley floor is not reached until about south fork of the Snoqualmie River (as you'd expect). It is not an arbitrary service road, it is the actual valley floor. 

image.thumb.png.d6635dae3f5528e944d0149e850d1f8b.png

3) No one is walking 2 to 3 miles in a "few" minutes, I don't care how downhill it is. I've walked to town, I've run to town, I've biked to town, in every possible way to get there. Never made it in a "few" minutes. 

Summary: You cannot walk to the valley floor in a few minutes. 😀

Side note... that stop sign at the end of Uplands Way is the valley floor.   And in fact it's a very flood prone area as a result.   It's completely flat from that stop sign to downtown NB.

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16 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I don’t think the surface gradients helped or hindered in your case, just a matter of being in the fairly narrow corridor where lift was crazy strong, deep and persistent as the low level cold advected from the NE.

That storm was really amazing, basically the perfect snowstorm. Foot of snow in one dumping, Thundersnow, and then cold and dry for the next week with the snow staying in the ground.

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1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

It's pretty crazy what the weather can do in Montana.  I can't remember if it was 2019 or 2020 (Kayla can probably confirm) but one of those years it literally snowed every month of the year (at least at pass level). 

Yeah in 2019 it snowed at my house every month except for July. 

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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21 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

My area doesn't do well in the low level cold air setups, but did well in the 2017 one. In 2014 I had about 9 inches of snow, how was that event in the east metro area/areas in Clark County?

I wasn't living here at the time, but like many of our deeper outflow events, it seemed like that was another one where the easterlies dried things out closer to the river, and then amounts increased in the less wind-prone areas. PDX measured 7.3" with that but I know amounts really increased to the north and west in Clark County. I think my current location had around 12" that week, most of which fell on the 6th during that big deformation zone that stretch out to the coast.

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