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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


The Blob

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Early June looks like our first substantial heatwave of the year, aside from April 7th’s one day spike into the mid 70s. Bound to happen at some point.

After all this rain and cooler weather it’s nice to see a warm airmass that not only will not be actively dangerous, but instead largely beneficial for the ecosystem. Warm days are great for bioproduction, given enough resources (read: water.)

What meets the criteria of a substantial heatwave out there in early June?

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Just now, Phishy Wx said:

we have some what looks like locust trees down the street that are just now budding.  they usually come out late but never June

Does it have white flowers after the foliage emerges?

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I am pretty excited about this 12z EURO!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am pretty excited about this 12z EURO!

Very suppressed jet for June and better yet no sign of 4CH building anytime soon.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This run gives us about 2.3" by the end of the month and 1.5" the first 5 days of June. 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

5-6" here on that run.😍

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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SLE is currently at 3.44" of rain in May. Seems pretty likely they will get to at least 4" this month, which would put them into the top 10. I could see them getting as high as 7th, probably not much higher. I believe April was their 7th wettest on record too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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68 degrees here with filtered sun.    Getting a boat ready for sale and its definitely sticky... it was also sprinkling very lightly for a time with the sun shining.     Another garden-friendly day.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You are fairly close to the water though right? What does your average high peak at?

77 in late July IIRC. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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63 here…still sprinkling. Euro would put us over 4.5” this month…which could be an all time record in Tacoma I’d have to go and look back to see. Keeps us wet into early June too. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Volcano and reduced humanity produced CO2, RE: Covid effect? 

Probably internal variability, for the most part.

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

SLE is currently at 3.44" of rain in May. Seems pretty likely they will get to at least 4" this month, which would put them into the top 10. I could see them getting as high as 7th, probably not much higher. I believe April was their 7th wettest on record too. 

Yep, like we said at the end of last month, the historically wet April leading into a wet May link seems pretty strong.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Yep, like we said at the end of last month, the historically wet April leading into a wet May link seems pretty strong.

April was much wetter down there IIRC but up here it was only 1/2”-1” above normal. This month many places in western WA will probably have more rain than they did in April. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Someone just sent me this...

No description available.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Someone just sent me this...

No description available.

Yeah... I was just noticing that the HRRR is showing what looks like convection later.

hrrr-washington-precip_1hr_inch-1653591600-1653609600-1653652800-20.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I was just noticing that the HRRR is showing what looks like convection later.

hrrr-washington-precip_1hr_inch-1653591600-1653609600-1653652800-20.gif

That’d be awesome but not counting on that. 64 with a DP of 57 so we will see. I noticed the NWS posted a future cast tweet that had some convective looking showers moving through must be using HRRR guidance too. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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14 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

77 in late July IIRC. 

Silver Falls average high peaks at 81 on 7/27. That is at 1350'. Looks like SLE peaks at 86 the last week of July.

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Silver Falls average high peaks at 81 on 7/27. That is at 1350'. Looks like SLE peaks at 86 the last week of July.

 

I can’t remember what Seattle peaks out at. Probably 80 or 79. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Finally in the abnormally dry category for the latest drought monitor which is certainly a huge improvement.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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2 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

@Meatyorologist will this give us boomers and flashcracks??

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1653566400-1653566400-1654430400-10.gif

Negatively tilted troughing and midlevel moisture is there but vorticity/diffluence is so-so. End result is a borderline outbreak with plenty of room for improvement.

As the general pattern becomes more volatile (ie: Phil’s “wavenumber” schtick), and -ENSO keeps throwing deep troughs at us from all sorts of angles and every which where, we’re bound to at some point maximize June’s sfc heating potential and maybe get a doozy of an outbreak. Just a thought. Maybe we’ll get super unlucky and get nothing. Hell, the progressive nature of the troughs thus far have prevented the differential advection aloft necessary for our typical midlevel-based storm action.

So in short, yes. But not likely a memorable one. I’d imagine it would be moderate stratoform rain with embedded lightning on its front. But I am more hopeful for the rest of the summer as the law of large numbers takes over as each trough lands onshore.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I was just noticing that the HRRR is showing what looks like convection later.

hrrr-washington-precip_1hr_inch-1653591600-1653609600-1653652800-20.gif

lol those CAM’s at it again, blasts stuff off with super generous sfc heating and erroneously high sfc DP’s. very, very low chance of happening. sometimes i wonder if they even believe in the existence of high clouds.

though i’d love to be wrong :)

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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