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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


The Blob

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

77C3FCE2-11EF-4988-B043-9534E98111B0.jpeg

How about 2011? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

77C3FCE2-11EF-4988-B043-9534E98111B0.jpeg

What about 2010-12?

The last decade has been a giant aberration from spring climatology. A correction was long overdue.

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We had 0 minutes of +70 weather in 2011. 
 Meanwhile looking at this month…should finish -3.4 below normal. Also +1.79” of precip. 
 The positive precip anomalies the last 2 months definitely made up for the deficit in March. We will finish this spring +0.15” with 10.56” of rain. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Of course.

We can get to above normal for rainfall for June in a hurry.  That does not mean it's raining all month.    I do like the coldest anomalies over the Midwest.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Easy to understand why the jet is extending (poleward transport of AAM previously deposited in the tropics via torques) but still can’t recall very many of these events during the warm season under a falling AAM integral.

Just a bizarre pattern all around. Mid-latitude wave propagation essentially stalls for a week while this is ongoing.

BDF1DD9D-E5D3-4763-9F4C-488D17BB3A2C.jpeg7775AFDD-9859-4199-9805-079BBC6A8C2C.jpeg

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

What about 2010-12?

The last decade has been a giant aberration from spring climatology. A correction was long overdue.

Average high is just about 70 now.  A normal spring would have significantly more hours above 70 by the end of May just from the normal ebb and flow of patterns with warm and cool periods.   This spring has been very slanted in the cold and wet direction.   Good news is that spring ends today and the next one is likely to be much better... which will be easy to do.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We can get to above normal for rainfall for June in a hurry.  That does not mean it's raining all month.    I do like the coldest anomalies over the Midwest.   

That post was in reference to the sliver of warmth over me. The one pattern that can deliver sustained cool anomalies here (western plains ridge) doesn’t want to show up for work.

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I like the 1948 and 1955 mentions that came up earlier. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, DareDuck said:

Another reason why I don’t post much over here anymore. The weather has been pretty lame for about 3 years now. Occasionally some good thunderstorms, but otherwise it’s dry, dry, dry. 

You live in Bend, OR. What do you expect, the Amazon Rainforest?😉

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14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z EPS. Looking milder overall (to be expected moving into June) but with rainfall chances remaining into the long range

E194EF0F-132D-4CB1-A90C-F90950F783B2.png

Looks like a small cluster of members are skewing the mean upwards at the end there.

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26 minutes ago, snow drift said:

You live in Bend, OR. What do you expect, the Amazon Rainforest?😉

I’m really about to sound like Tim here, but climo would be nice 😂

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Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

Heat stays largely suppressed to the south on the 12z EPS. Would be nice if this could continue through the month of June, like 1955 and 1948, both of which had decent troughing across much of the CONUS through early summer (though 1948 was hot in the West for 2-3 weeks).

In fact, 1955 is the only year without a 70+ low here in June.

D0E14DB0-0654-45AA-A3D1-EC1D6E692F3C.gif

 

Early June 1955 actually did have a freak heat wave in the PNW. Still the earliest 100+ reading on record for Seattle, with Downtown hitting 100 on 6/9.

Of course the "extreme" cold and troughing of that year resumed very soon afterwards and didn't look back until another little heat spike in early September.

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4 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah we will see, definitely enjoying these maps tho 3.6” would be freaking insane if it happened. 

WBF84D885-93D5-4560-840F-A121BF3B62A2.jpeg

Why do people still want more rain?  I just don't get it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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40 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Early June 1955 actually did have a freak heat wave in the PNW. Still the earliest 100+ reading on record for Seattle, with Downtown hitting 100 on 6/9.

Of course the "extreme" cold and troughing of that year resumed very soon afterwards and didn't look back until another little heat spike in early September.

The cold in 1955 was straight up insane.  The coldest year of the 20th century for WA.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Why do people still want more rain?  I just don't get it.

Why do people just want more sun? 😂 I just don’t get it 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Maybe if we're super lucky we can end up with another 1856.  7 inches of rain in June and 6 in July!  Those stats are from Fort Steilacom.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Why do people just want more sun? 😂 I just don’t get it 

I just want it to be dry for a while.  It's kind of nice to actually be able do some things that require dry weather during the summer.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

68 and sunny here. Fantastic day with a northerly breeze. 

It is a great one today.  It was a crisp 45 here this morning as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Maybe if we're super lucky we can end up with another 1856.  7 inches of rain in June and 6 in July!  Those stats are from Fort Steilacom.

LIA was wild. Active jet during the summer.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just want it to be dry for a while.  It's kind of nice to actually be able do some things that require dry weather during the summer.

It’ll happen eventually. IMO this spring has been pretty nice…has been plenty of days I’d classify as nice but I know others feel differently and that’s fine. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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29 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Maybe if we're super lucky we can end up with another 1856.  7 inches of rain in June and 6 in July!  Those stats are from Fort Steilacom.

Yeah, that one looked insane. Fort Vancouver had a 54/51 day on July 14 with a big rainstorm. 

Pretty good winter followed!

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I just want it to be dry for a while.  It's kind of nice to actually be able do some things that require dry weather during the summer.

You can bust out the slip n slide in the rain without too much trouble 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

LIA was wild. Active jet during the summer.

We had 10 or fewer days at/above 90°F in 1886, 1888, and 1890. Amazing what was possible back then.

Though apparently the 1770s were torrid with lots of 100+ heat and even dust storms. Kind of makes you wonder what the climate system is really capable of..

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2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Early June 1955 actually did have a freak heat wave in the PNW. Still the earliest 100+ reading on record for Seattle, with Downtown hitting 100 on 6/9.

Of course the "extreme" cold and troughing of that year resumed very soon afterwards and didn't look back until another little heat spike in early September.

That’s interesting, I wasn’t aware of that.

I know June 1948 was warm out there as well, despite the entrenched cold ENSO background state associated with the multidecadal flip to -PDO.

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I also noticed my weatherbug app has 4 separate days pegged with a chance of thunderstorms coming up. Active AFD. 

F745BDA0-42A5-49C4-8AA8-F3DB97B72ADC.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

You can bust out the slip n slide in the rain without too much trouble 

Apparently when my mom was a kid she and her 6 siblings decided to dig an “in ground pool” in their backyard during a very rainy summer day back in the 80s. Apparently it got pretty big and they put a tarp over the hole and filled it with water. To this day I don’t believe my grandpa has fully forgiven them 😂😂😂

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 hours ago, DareDuck said:

I’m really about to sound like Tim here, but climo would be nice 😂

We have received 3.35 inches of rain so far in May. Spokane Valley averages 1.7 inches in May. We've done pretty well up here. Maybe June will be more generous to Bend.👍🌧🌨

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It got to a warm 63F with a nice breeze today.  Thick overcast this morning and by early afternoon it became partly cloudy and remained that way the rest of the day. Some beautiful colors.  Later in the afternoon hours, some pretty big clouds formed over the North Cascades.  I'm no cloud expert, but maybe one was a thunder cell?

 

 

bigcloudcolor.jpg

bigoleclouds.jpg

neighborefef.jpg

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I expect a cooler and wetter than average June. I experienced Spokane's coldest one in 1991. I also experienced May 1984 and May 1996, which are the 2nd and 3rd coldest Mays on record. 21/31 May Record lows at KGEG were set in my lifetime. I experienced July 1986 and July 1993. They are Spokane's coldest Julys on record. I expect 60 degrees and drizzle on the 4th of July this year. We're due. It will likely be the coldest one since 2000.

 

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I see it lot of whining. But today was beautiful 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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