May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[Skagit Weather]

It's not every day that the first two weeks of May, April, March, February, January, December, November, ??? look like this.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

I’ve had a cold for over a week now… coughing and sniffling every night. Not gonna lie… endless winter is really starting to get kind of depressing at this point. Is a few consecutive average spring days too much to ask for now? Not even warmer than average, just average.

Maybe I’m just Vitamin D deficient. 

I hear you on that last part. April actually gave me some SAD. Vitamin D3 pills helped quite a bit.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I hear you on that last part. April actually gave me some SAD. Vitamin D3 pills helped quite a bit.

It still feels like winter... And I've been sick too. Lots of gunk going around. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

It happens... particularly in Nina years.    And its not going to change any time soon.    I keep expecting to see a 3-5 day sunny period showing up the models because that happens even in the coldest Nina years.      But no luck yet.    Thought we get lucky next week but that ship has sailed.      

Looks springy in Isle of Palms  

[BLI snowman]

54 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I turned 7. Had an outdoor birthday party. Magician came. We lost our St Bernese shortly afterward. My life probably peaked in May 1996. 

I think I saw Twister in theaters that month. Great times!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Going all-in on this next winter 22-23. Moderate to strong nina with a tiny bit of volcanic influence. Recipe for greatness.

[Omegaraptor]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Going all-in on this next winter 22-23. Moderate to strong nina with a tiny bit of volcanic influence. Recipe for greatness.

Hopefully at least 2 feet of snow and ten subfreezing highs here next winter.

But we are definitely due for an Oregon centric winter event. Just about every cold/snow event since Jan 2017 has been Puget Sound centric.

[Meatyorologist]

@Phil The numbercrunching is actually very easy, xmACIS2 does all the work for me. I listed five rural* sites, it took me no more than 15 mins. Maximum missing values == 3, top figure is max temp, bottom is min temp.

POR's are a bit wack and these sites are somewhat unregulated, so take this data with a grain of salt, but general rule is that nights have been warming since the 19th century, and a slight warming trend in daytime high temperatures, albeit inconsistent. Similar in scope and magnitude to urban sites.

*I included OLY on this list despite it not being very "rural", though it is a small "city" if you can call it that. It has a unique soil situation where sandy sediments left behind after the last glacial minimum provide un-climatological nighttime cooling for the lowland PNW. Cliff Mass wrote an article about it here. Given its unique case I decided out of curiosity to chuck it into the numbers machine to see if the trend remained, and sure enough it did.

Hoquiam/Aberdeen:

Forks:

Monroe:

Bremerton:

Olympia:

[Phil]

20 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

@Phil The numbercrunching is actually very easy, xmACIS2 does all the work for me. I listed five rural* sites, it took me no more than 15 mins. Maximum missing values == 3, top figure is max temp, bottom is min temp.

POR's are a bit wack and these sites are somewhat unregulated, so take this data with a grain of salt, but general rule is that nights have been warming since the 19th century, and a slight warming trend in daytime high temperatures, albeit inconsistent. Similar in scope and magnitude to urban sites.

*I included OLY on this list despite it not being very "rural", though it is a small "city" if you can call it that. It has a unique soil situation where sandy sediments left behind after the last glacial minimum provide un-climatological nighttime cooling for the lowland PNW. Cliff Mass wrote an article about it here. Given its unique case I decided out of curiosity to chuck it into the numbers machine to see if the trend remained, and sure enough it did.

Hoquiam/Aberdeen:

Forks:

Monroe:

Bremerton:

Olympia:

Some very interesting stuff in there. See a number of conflicting trends, which (I assume?) reflects land use changes, relocation of sensors, soil hydrology, and other microclimatic variables.

Which is why it’s so d**n difficult extract climate change signals from such data, let alone try to use surface data for global temperature monitoring.

[TacomaWaWx]

57 in Tacoma. Euro still keeping us cool and wet through the first half of May…all the way down to northern CA.  

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

57 in Tacoma. Euro still keeping us cool and wet through the first half of May…all the way down to northern CA.  

Man those are beautiful maps.

[Kayla]

Wow, I'm going to really enjoy these next couple of days in the 60's to near 70 and dry skies because beyond tomorrow, there is not a dry day in sight and high temps above the 30's-40's for the foreseeable future. Love to see it after a really dry/warm couple of Springs!

[Omegaraptor]

Soaking up the sun and enjoying this absolutely beautiful day as much as I can. Gonna be the last one like it for a LONG time.

Forget rain on the Fourth, at this rate snow wouldn’t surprise me. If this continues much longer it could start impacting agriculture.

[Kayla]

2 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Current forecast

May 2011 - it was actually nicer by quite a bit.

This honestly looks pretty nice and mild! A nice reminder of what Spring in the PNW climate of old is like. I'm sure they'll be some sunny interludes! 

[Omegaraptor]

6 minutes ago, Kayla said:

This honestly looks pretty nice and mild! A nice reminder of what Spring in the PNW climate of old is like. I'm sure they'll be some sunny interludes! 

I fail to see anything “nice and mild” about 50 degree drizzle in May. 

And if even May of 2011 which was 5 degrees below normal was warmer than this… pretty sure this was never “normal” May weather here. This is Oregon, not Norway.

[Phil]

The EPS keeps pushing back any transition to ridging. The 12z run looks much troughier than 00z through D10.

And LOL at how massively wrong the GFS was about the western death ridge. Record breaking wrongness.  

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I fail to see anything “nice and mild” about 50 degree drizzle in May. 

And if even May of 2011 which was 5 degrees below normal was warmer than this… pretty sure this was never “normal” May weather here. This is Oregon, not Norway.

Maybe we’ll repeat the great 1964. One of the most desirable summers in US history.

Doubt it’ll happen but it’s fun to imagine.

[Kayla]

4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I fail to see anything “nice and mild” about 50 degree drizzle in May. 

And if even May of 2011 which was 5 degrees below normal was warmer than this… pretty sure this was never “normal” May weather here. This is Oregon, not Norway.

This upcoming pattern looks pretty similar to early to mid May 2011, you have no idea how the rest of the month is going to play out beyond that. Get out today and enjoy that sun and warmth!

[Kayla]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Maybe we’ll repeat the great 1964. One of the most desirable summers in US history. 

I saw you mention a warm August is possible. A lot of the analog years for this summer point to a below average June with a warm July and a much below average August. What makes you think August will be the warm month?

[Meatyorologist]

I'm surprised Jim isn't on here celebrating as often. Honestly, I'm happy for the guy.

[Omegaraptor]

9 minutes ago, Kayla said:

This upcoming pattern looks pretty similar to early to mid May 2011, you have no idea how the rest of the month is going to play out beyond that. Get out today and enjoy that sun and warmth!

The rest of the month is going to be more of this crap. Easy prediction. No reason to even look at the models.

[TacomaWaWx]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm surprised Jim isn't on here celebrating as often. Honestly, I'm happy for the guy.

He’s been on a couple times…probably realizes he has a history of major jinxes though. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I saw you mention a warm August is possible. A lot of the analog years for this summer point to a below average June with a warm July and a much below average August. What makes you think August will be the warm month?

Which analogs have a warm July? My summer idea is still in the embryonic stages, There are a number of things I’m looking at, which I’ll elaborate on once I’m not driving in rush-hour traffic. Lol

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Which analogs have a warm July? My summer idea is still in the embryonic stages, There are a number of things I’m looking at, which I’ll elaborate on once I’m not driving in rush-hour traffic. Lol

Too soon.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Too soon.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS likes the idea of retrograding the mean trough position westward over the next couple weeks like previous runs... can't stay winter forever.  

[Kayla]

20 minutes ago, Phil said:

Which analogs have a warm July? My summer idea is still in the embryonic stages, There are a number of things I’m looking at, which I’ll elaborate on once I’m not driving in rush-hour traffic. Lol

I should rephrase that out of the three Summer months, analogs point to July being closest to average (still slightly below average most years) with August being coolest relative to average.

[The Blob]

72 here, if we didn't have the high clouds we could be warmer.

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

I should rephrase that out of the three Summer months, analogs point to July being closest to average (still slightly below average most years) with August being coolest relative to average.

Niña background state and expanded Hadley Cell usually tends to favor a cool early summer / warm late summer outcome out here, I believe? 2011 and 2012 followed that pattern.

[Kayla]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS likes the idea of retrograding the mean trough position westward over the next couple weeks like previous runs... can't stay winter forever.  

Throw it out, it doesn't fit Omegaraptor's narrative today. 

[Kayla]

9 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Niña background state and expanded Hadley Cell usually tends to favor a cool early summer / warm late summer outcome out here, I believe? 2011 and 2012 followed that pattern.

1975 is one of my top analogs and it didn't follow that script. Cool June, slightly cool to average July and well below normal August.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

1975 is one of my top analogs and it didn't follow that script. Cool June, slightly cool July and well below normal August.

Well I wish we could get some of that May 1975 weather soon... it was 80 degrees out here on May 9th and 84 degrees on May 13th.     July ended up a little warmer than normal... including mid to upper 80s around the 4th.      The first half of August was nice... the second half was wet.   But summer came roaring back for September.     

[Kayla]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well I wish we could get some of that May 1975 weather soon... it was 80 degrees out here on May 9th and 84 degrees on May 13th.     July ended up a little warmer than normal... including mid to upper 80s around the 4th.      The first half of August was nice... the second half was wet.   But summer came roaring back for September.     

Sounds like Summer perfection to me! It'll come.

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS likes the idea of retrograding the mean trough position westward over the next couple weeks like previous runs... can't stay winter forever.  

That looks like a pattern that would discontinuously retrograde back to -PNA fairly quickly. Hard to envision any sustained western ridging given the dominance of the low frequency state in the tropics over the intraseasonal waves which have been transiting the pacific in under a week.

[Phil]

22 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I should rephrase that out of the three Summer months, analogs point to July being closest to average (still slightly below average most years) with August being coolest relative to average.

I’d be surprised if August was the coolest relative to average, but I’ve been surprised countless times over recent years, so maybe I shouldn’t be.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

That looks like a pattern that would discontinuously retrograde back to -PNA fairly quickly. Hard to envision any sustained western ridging given the dominance of the low frequency state in the tropics over the intraseasonal waves which have been transiting the pacific in under a week.

Even normal would be nice for more than just a few hours every week.

[Phil]

16 minutes ago, Kayla said:

1975 is one of my top analogs and it didn't follow that script. Cool June, slightly cool to average July and well below normal August.

1975 is in my array of analogs as well. I just don’t weight older years as heavily given warm pool/z-cell changes since then.

But that alone doesn’t preclude a match. It could be correct!

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Even normal would be nice for more than just a few hours every week.

You gonna buy a place in Isle of Palms? Would be a nice safe haven for you I think.

[TT-SEA]

Slightly filtered sun and 66 degrees... completely calm so it feels warm.  Leaving patio furniture under cover since it would just have to be put away again anyways.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

You gonna buy a place in Isle of Palms? Would be a nice safe haven for you I think.

I don't feel in danger here.   

Just wanting some more normal weather to enjoy.