May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[Cloud]

Been a while since I looked at some stats and averages. Through the first week of May, it's been quite astounding. Temperatures-wise, we are nowhere near average and we already know about the rain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like we got down to 36F. Nice night. Was anybody above that?

Portland was in the 40s. 

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like we got down to 36F. Nice night. Was anybody above that?

Nearly everyone lol. Actually KSEA bottomed out lower than my place. 40°F there, 43°F here. Cloudy night!

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Nearly everyone lol. Actually KSEA bottomed out lower than my place. 40°F there, 43°F here. Cloudy night!

I bottomed out at 39 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Thermal energy takes time to propagate upwards and out into space. IIRC the Mesosphere is completely dipole to the solstice, peaking in temperature during boreal Winter. Could be wrong on that one though.

Avg temperature at 850mb+ peaks around August simply because thermal energy reserves both in the atmosphere and in the hydrosphere peak then. During late June through August, sun angles are decreasing, yet energy is still being added to the system. Sun angles fall behind that equation in Sept and don't look back until early Mar.

Isn’t the majority of heat transfer above the troposphere radiative in nature? I can’t imagine it would take that long.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Yep. No high desert in the west, no cap over the plains, no severe thunderstorms. It's incredible how interconnected our country's weather is and even more incredible how much of a severe weather machine the plains are.

Literally every ingredient comes together on a regular basis due to topography. The high desert for an energy building/storing EML, the warmest body of water on Earth between 20-30°N in the Gulf of Mexico, the highly active Pacific jet at 200mb ejecting and exiting over the plains, right where these prime ingredients meet. Nowhere else on earth do these ingredients come together as frequently and efficiently, and you'd probably be hard pressed to find a similar climate from a palaeoclimatological/palaeometeorological perspective.

Agree wholeheartedly with this. It really is something to behold.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Agree wholeheartedly with this. It really is something to behold.

Yep. Possibly the greatest severe thunderstorm generating machine to ever exist on Earth, and it's right in our backyards, so to speak.

[Phil]

N2/O2 don’t directly absorb IR, but CO^2, N^2O, O^3, etc, do absorb and re-remit IR in the upper atmosphere and collide with/conduct to other molecules. And O2/O3 absorb UV (and higher freqs) and the latter photodissociates.

I’d think radiative transfer would be the primary mode of thermal transfer above the tropopause. We see this in the stratosphere as the arctic high reaches peak intensity only 1 week after the summer solstice, **well** before arctic tropospheric temperatures peak in Aug/Sep.

If conduction were the primary conduit, the seasonal cycle in polar stratospheric temperatures would be lagged substantially.

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Isn’t the majority of heat transfer above the troposphere radiative in nature? I can’t imagine it would take that long.

Some wikipedia digging turned up that I was wrong. It's depth and placement fluctuate seasonally, the lowest being during the summer at the poles, and it's highest being at the equator during boreal winter. Though its temperatures are relatively steady and decrease with height.

[Meatyorologist]

Elite skies in CA

[Phil]

12z EPS. #LaNiña

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

12z EPS. #LaNiña

That's not terrible though. 

 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Phil said:

Could be 2013-21(?) warm season regime has finally terminated.

At the very least it's taken a hiatus this Spring. -ENSO behaving....... normally?!

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Average high temperatures to start the month are the lowest since 2002. Completely adjacent to what we've seen in the last decade. Something has fundamentally changed this Spring.

Could be the 2013-2021 warm season regime has finally terminated. Long time coming if so.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

At the very least it's taken a hiatus this Spring. -ENSO behaving....... normally?!

Meant to edit that and accidentally deleted.

Yes it appears so!

[Phil]

23 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Yep. Possibly the greatest severe thunderstorm generating machine to ever exist on Earth, and it's right in our backyards, so to speak.

Seems all of our big time severe outbreaks happen when there’s an EML overhead.

2012 derecho and July 25 2010 are both prime examples.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Phil said:

Seems all of our big time severe outbreaks happen when there’s an EML overhead.

2012 derecho and July 25 2010 are both prime examples.

Makes physical sense. On a related note, what is the greatest CAPE value you've ever seen over there across the mound? Here in 2013 we achieved some unrealized 2-3000j/kg values with a very moist (but unfortunately super capped) monsoonal layer. Analogs from the late 90s and late 70s under similar patterns would probably have brought similar values.

[TacomaWaWx]

57 here…warmest we’ve been since Wednesday. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Pretty decent looking shower creeping this way from the west…usually those don’t do well here but we will see if it makes it. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like heights finally creep upwards into next week on the euro…not an entirely dry pattern. Looks like we drop below 540 later in the run. 

[Kayla]

18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Elite skies in CA

That video just got me excited for storm season here! Haven’t had a single thunderstorm yet this year. Our lifting action has been non-existent up until this point.

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Makes physical sense. On a related note, what is the greatest CAPE value you've ever seen over there across the mound? Here in 2013 we achieved some unrealized 2-3000j/kg values with a very moist (but unfortunately super capped) monsoonal layer. Analogs from the late 90s and late 70s under similar patterns would probably have brought similar values.

I’m not sure tbh. We have occasional days with 4000-5000+ but most of them are under death ridges with zero convection to speak of. We can get some insane low level humidity that spikes SBCAPE up real high but it’s often capped with crappy mid level lapse rates. 

IIRC CAPE was ~ 5500 ahead of the 2012 derecho, which is impressive because it was 11PM at night. Was a monthly record, I think. And one of the highest readings observed at KIAD.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

That video just got me excited for storm season here! Haven’t had a single thunderstorm yet this year. Our lifting action has been non-existent up until this point.

sameeeeeeeee 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't see anything coming up over the next couple of weeks that looks anything like the past week. Looks fairly climo, though maybe a little on the cool side. Don't see any big warm ups on the horizon either. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like we got down to 36F. Nice night. Was anybody above that?

You were probably one of the colder spots this morning. We hit 38 but we ended up with clearer conditions overnight which is why that happened. Most places were in the 40s. 

[Meatyorologist]

12z Euro has mean blocking ridge position sliding right back over AK around the 20th. Models are also trending towards flattening this ridge and bringing warm rains instead of abundant sunshine to both OR and WA, particularly WA.

[Meatyorologist]

Not to mention this potent bugger coming in Thursday. It'll only stick around for a day or so, but it's got some bite.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We had 7.54" of rain in the April 29-May 8th period. I'm not saying its going to be dry, but it is going to be drier than that. 

[T-Town]

I went out to get a picture of the rain in the distance and found two bald eagles with the usual contingent of angry harassing crows. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at Silver Falls 10 wettest Mays. 

1) 1960 - 10.50"

2) 1977 - 10.09"

3) 1984 - 9.40"

4) 1941 - 8.46"

5) 1991 - 8.45"

6) 1945 - 8.40"

6) 1996 - 8.40"

8 ) 1988 - 8.08"

9) 1953 - 7.97"

10) 1998 - 7.81"

Looking ahead to June, there is about a 50% of a wet June based on these years. 1984 was an extremely wet June with 7.84" of rain. On the other hand there were some very dry June's in a couple of these years, notable 1960 (1.27"), and 1945 (0.45"). 

[BLI snowman]

54 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

At the very least it's taken a hiatus this Spring. -ENSO behaving....... normally?!

That's the thing too, we've had a reasonable amount of -ENSO recently in 2017, 2018, and 2021. But transitions and sudden ENSO collapses/brief reversals during the warm season always threw a wrench in that coupling very well with the atmospheric circulation. So none of the AMJJA periods resembled what we'd commonly expect (and see as recently as the early 2010s).

Nice to know after a decade that another truly entrenched and now deepening Nina can still do its job of overpowering anything else during this stretch of calendar. 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at Silver Falls 10 wettest Mays. 

1) 1960 - 10.50"

2) 1977 - 10.09"

3) 1984 - 9.40"

4) 1941 - 8.46"

5) 1991 - 8.45"

6) 1945 - 8.40"

6) 1996 - 8.40"

8 ) 1988 - 8.08"

9) 1953 - 7.97"

10) 1998 - 7.81"

Looking ahead to June, there is about a 50% of a wet June based on these years. 1984 was an extremely wet June with 7.84" of rain. On the other hand there were some very dry June's in a couple of these years, notable 1960 (1.27"), and 1945 (0.45"). 

How many years also had a very wet April there.. and then a very wet May?    Seems like that would make a dry June more likely.    But this year seems to be on its own track.    How many times has each month between April-June been very wet?    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

How many years also had a very wet April there.. and then a very wet May?    Seems like that would make a dry June more likely.    But this year seems to be on its own track.    How many times has each month between April-June been very wet?    

1984, 1991, and 1988 were above average April, May, June. Six of the top 10 May's followed an above average April. 1977 and 1998 had below average precip in April and June. 

 

1988 was the only year that had a top 10 wet April. 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

1984, 1991, and 1988 were above average April, May, June. Six of the top 10 May's followed an above average April. 1977 and 1998 had below average precip in April and June. 

 

1988 was the only year that had a top 10 wet April. 

1988 is another interesting case. It was a coherent niña that got an early head start and intensified heading into the warm season.

1st year event, but the holding/intensifying into summer seems to be an important factor for low frequency tendencies in the pattern. 

 

[Phil]

36 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We had 7.54" of rain in the April 29-May 8th period. I'm not saying its going to be dry, but it is going to be drier than that. 

12z EPS 15 day precipitation anomalies.

Looks like the PNW is the national oasis:

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

1988 is another interesting case. It was a coherent niña that got an early head start and intensified heading into the warm season.

1st year event, but the holding/intensifying into summer seems to be an important factor for low frequency tendencies in the pattern. 

 

This coming winter seems like a true wildcard. I have a feeling it is going to be active, but the 3rd year Nina is so unusual. As @BLI snowmanpointed out recently, starting in February 2019 our climate has become extremely dynamic. We also haven't had a true regional dud winter since 2014-15, seems unlikely, but its on the table. On the other hand we haven't had a true regional arctic outbreak since 2013... Something has to give.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z EPS 15 day precipitation anomalies.

Looks like a PNW oasis pattern:

Looking good!! Regional cool and wet spring has been very much needed!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This coming winter seems like a true wildcard. I have a feeling it is going to be active, but the 3rd year Nina is so unusual. As @BLI snowmanpointed out recently, starting in February 2019 our climate has become extremely dynamic. We also haven't had a true regional dud winter since 2014-15, seems unlikely, but its on the table. On the other hand we haven't had a true regional arctic outbreak since 2013... Something has to give.

With a tiny bit of volcanic influence I think it's gonna be incredible. Lots of jet suppression with Arctic boundaries reaching northern California with surface lows also regularly coming in just a bit south of Cape Blanco.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This coming winter seems like a true wildcard. I have a feeling it is going to be active, but the 3rd year Nina is so unusual. As @BLI snowmanpointed out recently, starting in February 2019 our climate has become extremely dynamic. We also haven't had a true regional dud winter since 2014-15, seems unlikely, but its on the table. On the other hand we haven't had a true regional arctic outbreak since 2013... Something has to give.

I think the “dud” will happen when the next niño arrives, possibly 2023/24. Or the subsequent year.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

With a tiny bit of volcanic influence I think it's gonna be incredible. Lots of jet suppression with Arctic boundaries reaching northern California with surface lows also regularly coming in just a bit south of Cape Blanco.

Descending +QBO will help with the NPAC high position, at least. Hard to bet against cold/active in the West, even this far in advance.