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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


The Blob

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

1988 is another interesting case. It was a coherent niña that got an early head start and intensified heading into the warm season.

1st year event, but the holding/intensifying into summer seems to be an important factor for low frequency tendencies in the pattern. 

 

We had nice stretches during 2 different weeks out here the Snoqualmie Valley in May 1988 with temps in the 70s on several days and dry for 5-6 consecutive days each time.   Peak temp was 89 on 5/21/88.     Nothing even remotely close to that in sight this month.

Then it rained a boat load at the very end of May through the first 10 days of June..    But then we had another 2-week stretch of basically warm and dry with less than a .10 of an inch of rain in that period (6/11-6/25).  

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The cool rainy weather this past weekend was like a steroid injection to the trees. Tulip poplars are in mid-June form with deep green leaves. Almost everything is 100% mature now. Elms and Sycamores (which were lagging) have exploded today.

This was so badly needed. Especially considering the summer weather could be extra stressful this year. 

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5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Please make this crap end. By far the worst spring in my life here. I dont even need sunshine just dry weather.

I wouldn't care if we received twice as much rain as we have... as long as we can sneak in 4 or 5 consecutive dry, warm days in between.     That happens even out here even in the coldest Nina springs... like 1955.     The persistence of the rain has been incredible.    We have had rain on almost every day for the last 45 days and there is not 2 consecutive dry days in sight yet.    Even normal Nina spring climo would be a huge improvement. 

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We had nice stretches during 2 different weeks out here the Snoqualmie Valley in May 1988 with temps in the 70s on several days and dry for 5-6 consecutive days each time.   Peak temp was 89 on 5/21/88.     Nothing even remotely close to that in sight this month.

Then it rained a boat load at the very end of May through the first 10 days of June..    But then we had another 2-week stretch of basically warm and dry with less than a .10 of an inch of rain in that period (6/11-6/25).  

This year is definitely a bit more suppressed than 1988. I’m looking at the larger scale circulation over the NPAC.

That summer was atrocious out here, would be nice to avoid a repeat. We have family photos from that year and the grass was dead brown by late July with half of the foliage having dropped already.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

This year is definitely a bit more suppressed than 1988. I’m looking at the larger scale circulation over the NPAC.

That summer was atrocious out here, would be nice to avoid a repeat. We have family photos from that year and the grass was dead brown by late July with half of the foliage having dropped already.

That was an insane year in Minnesota as well.    It was a very early spring and everything was burnt brown by the first of June.   That never happens.  This year has been the complete opposite so far there... but that might be changing now.

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I wouldn't care if we received twice as much rain as we have... as long as we can sneak in 4 or 5 consecutive dry, warm days in between.     That happens even out here even in the coldest Nina springs... like 1955.     The persistence of the rain has been incredible.    We have had rain on almost every day for the last 45 days and there is not 2 consecutive dry days in sight yet.    Even normal Nina spring climo would be a huge improvement. 

Maybe just payback for 2013-18 (and 2021)?

That regime was equally outrageous and persistent.

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Some wikipedia digging turned up that I was wrong. It's depth and placement fluctuate seasonally, the lowest being during the summer at the poles, and it's highest being at the equator during boreal winter. Though its temperatures are relatively steady and decrease with height.

You should be banned.....you have a lot of nerve coming on here and admitting you are wrong and correcting yourself.

 

You are supposed to wait for your forum-mates to do that for you! 

 

Seriously thanks for all the info, I've only been able to skim it today, I look forward to sitting down tonight and fully read through all of the info/discussion.

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That was an insane year in Minnesota as well.    It was a very early spring and everything was burnt brown by the first of June.   That never happens.  This year has been the complete opposite so far there... but that might be changing now.

Gradient does seem to be farther south this year so far. Hopefully that continues to be the case.

Out here this spring has definitely been giving off drought vibes not seen since 10-15 years ago. We haven’t had a single wetter than average month in 2022 and that probably won’t change anytime soon.

That’s why I’m so grateful for this past weekend. Fluky/trapped ULL gave us a gift in a pattern that would otherwise have torched us..don’t think we’ll be as lucky going forward.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Maybe just payback for 2013-18 (and 2021)?

That regime was equally outrageous and persistent.

Whatever.   We had some very wet spring months in there as well.         

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19 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Please make this crap end. By far the worst spring in my life here. I dont even need sunshine just dry weather.

It’s getting old real quick. Even just a one week stretch of dry weather would be amazing right now, but we can hardly buy 5 hours of dryness at the moment. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

It’s getting old real quick. Even just a one week stretch of dry weather would be amazing right now, but we can hardly buy 5 hours of dryness at the moment. 

May 1962 seems like the best match to this month... it rained just about every day and was cold the entire month.   But that year we had a nice stretch in April before the nasty stuff started in May... and then June was really nice.   There was no rain here between 6/6-6/24 that year which is a very long stretch for June.      

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23 minutes ago, Phil said:

This year is definitely a bit more suppressed than 1988. I’m looking at the larger scale circulation over the NPAC.

That summer was atrocious out here, would be nice to avoid a repeat. We have family photos from that year and the grass was dead brown by late July with half of the foliage having dropped already.

That was also the year Yellowstone almost burned down. Pretty hot summer for most of the country and was the year the media really started sounding the alarm bells on AGW.

We had an up and down affair that got warmer as it went along and peaked with a heat dome style airmass at the start of September. Then an October torchfest. Kind of odd considering the strong La Nina in place.

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There is no pattern change coming.   The 18Z GFS looks about the same in 9 days as what we have right now.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2896800.png

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21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Whatever.   We had some very wet spring months in there as well.         

Last year was nutso dry in the spring and summer. PDX had 2.27" of precip between March 29 and September 16 (basically half of the year). Pretty extreme crap. 

And extremes tend to beget more extremes.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Last year was nutso dry in the spring and summer. PDX had 2.27" of precip between March 29 and September 16 (basically half of the year). Pretty extreme crap. 

And extremes tend to beget more extremes.

I was thinking the same thing.  

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

May 1962 seems like the best match to this month... it rained just about every day and was cold the entire month.   But that year we had a nice stretch in April before the nasty stuff started in May... and then June was really nice.   There was no rain here between 6/6-6/24 that year which is a very long stretch for June.      

Beautiful August that year, as well.

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19 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

That was also the year Yellowstone almost burned down. Pretty hot summer for most of the country and was the year the media really started sounding the alarm bells on AGW.

We had an up and down affair that got warmer as it went along and peaked with a heat dome style airmass at the start of September. Then an October torchfest. Kind of odd considering the strong La Nina in place.

Yikes. Yeah historically, one of the red-herrings for a brutal summer across the country has been an early build-up of heat in Texas, and that’s definitely been the case this year.

But if the wavenumber is high enough the death ridge can remain confined to the Plains states. In 2000 and 2001 the heat never made it here, and we ended up with tons of cool NW flow and awesome MCS activity. Those summers were a big contributor to my interest in the weather as a kid.

But I’m not sure that’s possible anymore with the expansion of the subtropical highs since then. It’s a pretty radical difference. 

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

12z Euro has mean blocking ridge position sliding right back over AK around the 20th. Models are also trending towards flattening this ridge and bringing warm rains instead of abundant sunshine to both OR and WA, particularly WA.

I’m not seeing the warm rains focused on Washington? But the 12z EPS definitely wants to move another trough in in the mid to long range.

D6D912B9-7FEA-445A-BC8C-EA69B687A92F.png

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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99B773D0-FA18-41A1-AEBC-7B1D2857E4F7.jpeg

Plectania Melaena, fairly rare.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I wouldn't care if we received twice as much rain as we have... as long as we can sneak in 4 or 5 consecutive dry, warm days in between.     That happens even out here even in the coldest Nina springs... like 1955.     The persistence of the rain has been incredible.    We have had rain on almost every day for the last 45 days and there is not 2 consecutive dry days in sight yet.    Even normal Nina spring climo would be a huge improvement. 

How does this compare to 2010 and 2011 in your area?

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9 minutes ago, Phil said:

How does this compare to 2010 and 2011 in your area?

We were in a week long dry stretch at this point in 2010... then the persistent rain came from mid-May through mid-June.   But the second half of June in 2010 was quite dry.   

In May 2011... we had a 10-day period with only 1 rainy day between 5/17-5/27.      And then there was 20 dry days in June that year.     And not a drop of rain for the first 11 days of July.   

Both of those years look much more reasonable than this year in terms of persistent rain.   Normally a 4 or 5 day totally dry stretch would be a lock after 45 days of rain even with a Nina... but not this year.

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18z GEFS has trended towards a more consolidated trough around D8-10, as opposed to the ULL-ish solution it was showing earlier.

Seems to be a theme this year with most LR guidance (especially the GFS/GEFS). ULL-ish patterns in the long range that morph into more consolidated western troughs upon approach.

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

By the posts on here it’s safe to say this is the best/worst spring of all time. 

Snowmizer wants to live in Alaska and he loves cool, wet weather and he is frustrated.     I am starting to think the only people who love rain every single day are posting on this forum and they are militant about it.  😀

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5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Yep. No high desert in the west, no cap over the plains, no severe thunderstorms. It's incredible how interconnected our country's weather is and even more incredible how much of a severe weather machine the plains are.

Literally every ingredient comes together on a regular basis due to topography. The high desert for an energy building/storing EML, the warmest body of water on Earth between 20-30°N in the Gulf of Mexico, the highly active Pacific jet at 200mb ejecting and exiting over the plains, right where these prime ingredients meet. Nowhere else on earth do these ingredients come together as frequently and efficiently, and you'd probably be hard pressed to find a similar climate from a palaeoclimatological/palaeometeorological perspective.

Dude, you should become a science writer. 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

18z GEFS has trended towards a more consolidated trough around D8-10, as opposed to the ULL-ish solution it was showing earlier.

Seems to be a theme this year with most LR guidance (especially the GFS/GEFS). ULL-ish patterns in the long range that morph into more consolidated western troughs upon approach.

Yeah... its pretty pointless to even look at the models right now.     The end result ends up being the same no matter what they show in the mid and long range.     

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

18z GEFS has trended towards a more consolidated trough around D8-10, as opposed to the ULL-ish solution it was showing earlier.

Seems to be a theme this year with most LR guidance (especially the GFS/GEFS). ULL-ish patterns in the long range that morph into more consolidated western troughs upon approach.

I have a field trip scheduled to Bend area for my volcanism class on the 21st. It will be relocated if the pass is snowed in… and I have been looking forward to this field trip for a while… so I would greatly prefer if the pass was not snowed in. Hopefully not too much to ask.

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Interesting the pattern would be so stable with such an active MJO/subseasonal component to the tropical convection.

Unless something changes dramatically, we’re about to experience a full fledged Pacific MJO transit with little change in the pattern over North America.

I almost think there has to be a warmer trend in guidance soon. This is a substantial wave. If it can’t shake up the pattern, what else could? These tropical-extratropical teleconnections only grow weaker heading into the summer.

2145EC92-52CE-43C0-B33A-1E1234FF30B5.png

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Just now, mtep said:

Dude, you should become a science writer. 

I love his insight... best addition to the forum in years.  

I love reading his stuff even when he is talking about patterns that I don't like... he just sticks to the facts.

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Snowmizer wants to live in Alaska and he loves cool, wet weather and he is frustrated.     I am starting to think the only people who love rain every single day are posting on this forum and they are militant about it.  😀

There are a lot of people here on my campus… and I haven’t met a single person even remotely happy about this weather. Just complaining. Believe me - my opinion of it is probably higher than most other people I know, if just for an appreciation of the anomalies we’re seeing out of some of these airmasses.

There’s gotta be at least one person here who is legitimately enjoying it and wants it to be cold and wet every day… but I haven’t met them yet.

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