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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Of course don't let that fact fool you, I am more partial than not to clouds. I would rather have 365 days of clouds than 356 days of sun. Neither is preferable of course...a healthy mix is good. In fact the happiest time of year for me is June through September, when we see the most sun.

Seattle still gets clouds and rain during warm season troughs... but the sun is much more reliable there.   Big difference.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

I hear rain pounding on the roof.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Thursday and Friday look very wet for everyone.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-1924800.png

God is blessing us. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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image.png

Some midlevel convection embedded within this advancing line. Midlevel winds out of the SE alongside modeled instability sourced around 800mb or so supports this. Currently a cell drifting across the Sound, popped up quite quickly. Off chance of a one strike wonder in the area as this occluded front advances overhead.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

image.png

Some midlevel convection embedded within this advancing line. Midlevel winds out of the SE alongside modeled instability sourced around 800mb or so supports this. Currently a cell drifting across the Sound, popped up quite quickly. Off chance of a one strike wonder in the area as this occluded front advances overhead.

Surprisingly windy here this morning with rain pounding against the front windows in November fashion.     We didn't have any wind with the system on Saturday morning.

I am guessing Seattle will be close to normal rainfall for all of May by Sunday.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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0.28” so far this morning. Going camping tonight looks like things should be drying out by this evening. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

0.28” so far this morning. Going camping tonight looks like things should be drying out by this evening. 

Tomorrow looks quite gloomy and drizzly... the moisture and low clouds get stuck after this system passes.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_12hr_inch-1622400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-clouds_fourpanel-1611600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Tomorrow looks quite gloomy and drizzly... the moisture and low clouds get stuck after this system passes.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_12hr_inch-1622400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-clouds_fourpanel-1611600.png

I don’t mind it, it’s my friends who are coming with that’ll mind lol. Little drizzle isn’t too big of a deal. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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SEA is already close to 15% of normal rainfall for the entire month in just a couple hours.    If the 00Z ECMWF and 06Z GFS are right... SEA will be well above normal for the month later this week.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

.57” so far on the day. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, MossMan said:

.57” so far on the day. 

Finally a break from having to water to keep everything alive.    😃

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

You saw the ending of Ozark huh (promise I won’t give any spoilers out to anyone)

Trying to get through it, finished episode 12 last night.  Hopefully I can get through the last 2 tonight.  I can't remember, is this the last season or will there be a season 5?  Now you guys got me really wanting to check it out (stupid work!)

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10 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Just mind blowing to me.  To me March and April can be almost unbearable if the winter gloom hangs on.  At least this year we had some big time below normal temps and some breaks to go with it.

Mid April through May is when I start to get sick and tired of the cold and snow. I usually plan a Vegas trip in May to experience some nice hot weather. We usually have to wait till June for consistent 70F days and mornings only in the 30's instead of the 20's 

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9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

And very crowded.    I swear my blood pressure goes up every time I go to Seattle.   And it goes down when I get to Issaquah on the way back.    😀

After leaving the Bay Area 10 years ago I try not to go west of the Sierra Crest anymore 🙂 

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14 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Trying to get through it, finished episode 12 last night.  Hopefully I can get through the last 2 tonight.  I can't remember, is this the last season or will there be a season 5?  Now you guys got me really wanting to check it out (stupid work!)

This is it.... no more seasons coming.

I could have finished it this weekend... but don't want to rush since I know its the end of the series.     And I know there are some ugly days this week so it keeps me entertained.  😃

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

Muddy dogs!!!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is it.... no more seasons coming.

I could have finished it this weekend... but don't want to rush since I know its the end of the series.     And I know there are some ugly days this week so it keeps me entertained.  😃

Makes sense, the way this storyline is going, it does not seem like it could go much further.

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Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Not anymore. Looking like another Eugene special. 

ECMWF has not spoken yet.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hello 12Z GFS!   Might be a little more sunny and dry next week.     Can't wait... this week seems endless right now.  😃

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I'm not complaining. I was just countering Tim's statement. I do want more, more, more rain though. I hope we keep it rolling through at least the end of June.

Except of course if you are golfing.   😃

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
33 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

45 with a stiff SW breeze and steady rain. Dark skies. Doesn't feel like May but it certainly will again in a couple days.

May normally has some cool days like this. It’s just been many years since it’s been a regular thing 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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0.36” so far this morning…nearly doubling the 2019 total rainfall of 0.19”. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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  • Longtimer
1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

After leaving the Bay Area 10 years ago I try not to go west of the Sierra Crest anymore 🙂 

What’s the snowpack situation like down there now

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

0.36” so far this morning…nearly doubling the 2019 total rainfall of 0.19”. 

SEA is just about to 20% of normal rainfall for May just this morning.     Lets keep it going and get to above normal for the entire month by this weekend.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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WA state snowpack (water equivalent) as of May 1st.     No deficits up here at all... with rain or snowpack.    

wa snow 5-1.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

What’s the snowpack situation like down there now

pretty much zero below 7500' above that it's not that bad. snow survey on April first was tied with 2015 as the worst ever with 0" recorded at 7k

The previous worst April 1st survey was 1976 with 33"

 

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  • Longtimer
5 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

pretty much zero below 7500' above that it's not that bad. snow survey on April first was tied with 2015 as the worst ever with 0" recorded at 7k

The previous worst April 1st survey was 1976 with 33"

 

Maybe I should turn to other sources if I really wanna know 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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  • Longtimer

Nice to see the GFS ensembles flatter with the week two ridging than the operational. I remember when the operational runs were sold on a massive ridge starting around the 5th and that has since been reduced to a pretty short lived one between troughs. Will have to see if we get that lucky again with the next round 

17883F6C-5377-4B50-913C-F868394EA912.png

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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  • Longtimer

Sick as a dog and home from work today. Currently raining and 39. 0.56” on the day. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Not anymore. Looking like another Eugene special. 

12Z ECMWF does not show a Eugene special with the late week systems...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_72hr_inch-1946400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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22 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

And yes Phil... I realize any ridge will only last for about 15 minutes and it's all transitory.    Those are your standard responses every year.   I don't expect any ridging this year.   Literally anything we get is a bonus.

Move to Eugene. I hear tell there is nothing but warm and dry anomalies there.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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  • Longtimer
7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF does not show a Eugene special with the late week systems...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_72hr_inch-1946400.png

Nearly 3” of blessings here.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I ended up with 2.17" for April which was probably about an inch below normal. Meanwhile BLI had 1.34" for April which was less than 50% of normal and their 7th driest April on record. Although, I'm a little suspicious of the Bellingham precipitation number. April may be correct, but they've been having issues recording accurate precip since the start of the year.

Of course I've already picked up 0.56" today so May could end up wetter than April (especially if the storm at the end of this week pans out).

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Maybe I should turn to other sources if I really wanna know 

not sure what other proof you need since I actually live here. lol 

But here was high meadow 7800' on Saturday which we mt biked to via cold creek trail. snow line is around 8k on north facing. nothing else anywhere in the basin. 

Also it looks like all the reporting stations combined are 18% - 34% of average depending on the part of the state. So still jammed up with the worst years ever 1976, 2015, etc 

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/PLOT_SWC.pdf

20220430_145527.thumb.jpg.c177e3bf75ccbf0a6454659704a8929d.jpg

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