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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


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  • Longtimer

72 at PDX 🤢

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

+2 departure at PDX today. +5 at SLE. Tomorrow could be worse.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Was finally able to spray some weeds today. Wasn’t ideal since the rains are coming back tomorrow morning but it’s as good as it gets in 2022. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

+2 departure at PDX today. +5 at SLE. Tomorrow could be worse.

Tim will be here soon to let ya know there have been MANY negative departures recently. :) 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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66/45 today…0.06” of rain this morning then turned into a very nice day. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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  • Longtimer
4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Devastating trendz

It’s over. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

People should define what they mean when they say models look good. Tim means warm and dry. Jim means cold and dry. Andrew means cold and wet. Would be very confusing to a noob lol

Welcome to Preference Wars, Passive-Aggressive Edition.

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32 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

People should define what they mean when they say models look good. Tim means warm and dry. Jim means cold and dry. Andrew means cold and wet. Would be very confusing to a noob lol

Warm and dry is the best as long as there are occasional wet periods. Even warm and wet can be pretty nice at times. It should not be cold though for summer or late spring even if it's cold and dry.

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1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Warm and dry is the best as long as there are occasional wet periods. Even warm and wet can be pretty nice at times. It should not be cold though for summer or late spring even if it's cold and dry.

I actually don’t think we have anyone on the forum that likes warm and wet weather. That’s just something everyone hates lol

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  • Longtimer

Morning rain and drizzle then some quick afternoon warming today on SW winds after the warm front passed. Cool clouds out there this afternoon and evening. 71/48 day.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 hour ago, MV_snow said:

People should define what they mean when they say models look good. Tim means warm and dry. Jim means cold and dry. Andrew means cold and wet. Would be very confusing to a noob lol

That’s why I just stick to the gifs 

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  • Longtimer

61/47 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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My boys are aboard the ferry to Orcas Island this evening to go to a friend's house.    Gorgeous evening and the Sound is so calm.   I love the San Juan Islands.

674271223.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Eujunga said:

Welcome to Preference Wars, Passive-Aggressive Edition.

Lol. At least it’s much less confusing in the winter. “Good” means cold and snow for everybody except maybe Tim if he’s already completely buried in it.

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10 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

I'm gonna get a sunburn from standing in all this rain. 

Beatles reference. I'm the egg man now.

My Irish self got a nice sunburn standing in the lake today for 20 minutes. I am headed to Vegas tomorrow were it will be 100F+ so.....

Giphy_3d7cd3b0-653e-11ea-9374-a59b638254810.gif

20220514_135340.jpg

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44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My boys are aboard the ferry to Orcas Island this evening to go to a friend's house.    Gorgeous evening and the Sound is so calm.   I love the San Juan Islands.

674271223.jpg

Had a great time up there for my birthday a couple months ago. Beautiful place…the weather was probably nicer in March when I went then it has been recently lol. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Average temp is 50.0 so far this month…6 degrees below normal. If the euros right we will still be solidly below normal by the time late May rolls around with most days still struggling to hit 60. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Eujunga said:

00z GFS looks good.

Really focuses the rain right where its needed the most... the northern half of western WA and SW BC.    That is the area that is so devastated by severe drought.    Oregon and California have had way too much rain... they need a break.

gfs-deterministic-namer-qpf_anom_10day-3436800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

My boys are aboard the ferry to Orcas Island this evening to go to a friend's house.    Gorgeous evening and the Sound is so calm.   I love the San Juan Islands.

674271223.jpg

My favorite area on earth. If you believe in a god, the San Juans are his magnum opus. Totally biased but I own that.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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These warm days shine so much sweeter when we actually earn them.

Warm days interspersed with cooler wet periods in the warm season works wonders ecologically speaking. Torching upon torching does noone any good.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer
7 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

00z GFS looks good.

Maybe a preference reference guide should be added to the new member welcome basket? 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Maybe a preference reference guide should be added to the new member welcome basket? 

Looks awesome for Vancouver Island.   I know @ShawniganLake is really tired of all the hot sunshine up there.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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image.png

Oh we're doing this now? Even some initial capping 👀 NAM is usually far too bold on convection but the ingredients are there.

That isn't a common setup. @wx_statman can you pull up any 500mb analogs to 00z 5/16 (or 18z 5/15)?

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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image.png

HRRR has instability, but no capping. EL's are a bit lower too. That whole situation between 500 and 200mb is a fickle one and will decide cumulus tops. HRRR solution would cloud up and prevent thunderstorms. NAM would bring a surprise thunderstorm outbreak with decent shear and very heavy rain.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Is this late May or late December? Goodness gracious.

F2EB807C-B6F6-4BFB-851D-DA863C550DC1.png

LIA throwback

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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image.png

The NAM absolutely pummels Seattle even harder than the 00z.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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image.png

bruh

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer

Hey guys. Need a favor. My family is staying in Fort Myers Florida for a month starting tomorrow. Just looking at the extended forecast it looks like a major hurricane is set to give us a direct hit in about 9 days. I won’t have my computer, and was initially going to get away from the internet for awhile. Feeling a bit unsettled about this. If anyone wants to track this thing and send me updates via text message it would be greatly appreciated. If you’d like to, send me a PM and i’ll shoot my phone number over. Thanks guys!

brennan

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3 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Hey guys. Need a favor. My family is staying in Fort Myers Florida for a month starting tomorrow. Just looking at the extended forecast it looks like a major hurricane is set to give us a direct hit in about 9 days. I won’t have my computer, and was initially going to get away from the internet for awhile. Feeling a bit unsettled about this. If anyone wants to track this thing and send me updates via text message it would be greatly appreciated. If you’d like to, send me a PM and i’ll shoot my phone number over. Thanks guys!

brennan

Were you looking at the gfs? 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Low of 51 this morning…first +50 low so far this year. 0.06” of rain so far this morning and 2.41” this month. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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  • Longtimer

Very balmy morning. So much for a cold May. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

ITS RAINING!!!!!! 
.13” so far on the day, 3.61” for the month. 
52 degrees. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

ITS RAINING!!!!!! 
.13” so far on the day, 3.61” for the month. 
52 degrees. 

Euro overall has been trending towards more breaks in the rainfall coming up…which makes sense based on climo. Not a very warm pattern but could be some nicer days mixing in. We will see if it actually pans out. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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  • Longtimer

After today we ll only be about -3F on the month. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

After today we ll only be about -3F on the month. 

Probably on our way to a +5F month here. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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28 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Hey guys. Need a favor. My family is staying in Fort Myers Florida for a month starting tomorrow. Just looking at the extended forecast it looks like a major hurricane is set to give us a direct hit in about 9 days. I won’t have my computer, and was initially going to get away from the internet for awhile. Feeling a bit unsettled about this. If anyone wants to track this thing and send me updates via text message it would be greatly appreciated. If you’d like to, send me a PM and i’ll shoot my phone number over. Thanks guys!

brennan

I’ll send you my # but I don’t think that GFS-icane is going to happen. It has a tendency to erroneously spin up systems from Central America during CCKW passages.

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EPS and GEFS actually quite similar in their respective evolutions over the next 2 weeks.

Operational GFS is charting its own lonely course, as usual.

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Just now, Phil said:

EPS and GEFS actually quite similar in their respective evolutions over the next 2 weeks.

Operational GFS is charting its own lonely course, as usual.

Your thoughts on june out here in the PNW? 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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