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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


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  • Longtimer
Just now, Doiinko said:

How did Eugene manage to get this cold in 2013? Even with snow cover and arctic air, a 19/-10 day is insane.

Screenshot_20220518-111426.png

Salem AND Eugene hit -12 on the same date in 1972... It can happen under the right conditions.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Never been? Surprising! Haven't you lived in WA about 20 years?

Andrew's negative views on impoverished central WA has kept us away. 

In fact... when we drive to MN every summer we intentionally go south and then east so we don't ever have to look at the horrors of Ellensburg and Moses Lake.   I heard that Moses Lake is in an ugly basin with lots of agriculture and is run down and not wealthy.   I never want to see that.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Here is another fun fact:

April 1-May 15, 2021: Driest such period on record at PDX

April 1-May 15, 2022: Wettest such period on record at PDX

Law of averages!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Score for one for the GFS.   Last weekend Jim was talking about a potentially nice weekend being shown on the GFS while the ECMWF was showing a washout.    And now the ECMWF shows exactly what the GFS was showing... dry and mostly sunny both days.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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AAM integral peaks this week.

Multiweek decline begins following next CCKW passage across the IPWP.

792EA056-75E3-4B53-880D-7D81EFDF1293.jpeg

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Score for one for the GFS.   Last weekend Jim was talking about a potentially nice weekend being shown on the GFS while the ECMWF was showing a washout.    And now the ECMWF shows exactly what the GFS was showing... dry and mostly sunny both days.    

The GFS was projecting a deep trough here with a cat3 hurricane slamming New Orleans. :lol: 

It was nowhere close with the large scale pattern. A complete and utter failure.  

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Good lord sometimes you can’t even talk about anything on here sometimes. Was much wetter here than at sea tac…was talking about my location. 

sorry for being an ass :lol:

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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On the way to class this morning there was windswept drizzle and visible sheets of it coming down. Now one of the most beautiful May days we get around here, sunny and damp and extremely luminous. Bipolar weather is back after a couple days of May normalcy!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

The GFS was projecting a deep trough here with a cat3 hurricane slamming New Orleans. :lol: 

It was nowhere close with the large scale pattern. A complete and utter failure.  

Maybe not... but it did much better with the pattern in the West.   The GFS properly showed the late week trough digging more which held off the return to zonal flow.    The ECMWF went right into zonal flow by Saturday.     It has since come around to the GFS idea.    Score one for America.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe not... but it did much better with the pattern in the West.   The GFS properly showed the late week trough digging more which held off the return to zonal flow.    The ECMWF went right into zonal flow by Saturday.     It has since come around to the GFS idea.    Score one for America.  

Except the D5 z500 skill scores are higher for the ECMWF.

You’re going to be sorely disappointed if you’re placing your eggs in the GFS basket.

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3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Power is out here.  Had to pick up the kids from daycare.  Apparently they have to be home when there is no electricity. Safer that way. 🫤 

Minus 1 minute outages due to lightning strikes/etc we haven’t lost power since the 2012 derecho. All it took was some modest tree trimming and basic maintenance from PEPCO.

 

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1 minute ago, T-Town said:

The forum is as lively as the weather this morning. Up to 57 with some sun breaks here. Pretty windy earlier but settling down a bit now. 

Andrew needs some push back.    He has been mocking cities in central WA for years because I made the mistake of going there and saying nice things.     What is the point of that?   He needs to announce every month that Pasco and Moses Lake and other places in central WA are run down and dumpy?  He went on a rant on Easter Sunday about Moses Lake and Ritzville.    And a little bit earlier when Randy told us about a house his family had on Moses Lake and how he wished they had kept it.    Its a real hot button for Andrew.  😀

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Except the D5 z500 skill scores are higher for the ECMWF.

You’re going to be sorely disappointed if you’re placing your eggs in the GFS basket.

I have literally no expectations about the GFS performance.   I just wanted to mention a small victory for the GFS which worked out well in our favor this coming weekend.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Minus 1 minute outages due to lightning strikes/etc we haven’t lost power since the 2012 derecho. All it took was some modest tree trimming and basic maintenance from PEPCO.

 

That will never happen here.  Trees fall down when it’s windy. And most of this area is on bedrock, and underground utilities are kind of a challenge sometimes.  I wouldn’t hold my breath for underground power anytime soon. 

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Out of staters often ask what there is to see in Oregon having only been to Portland and Corvallis. The go to response is usually Bend. I like to recommend Hood River area and southern Oregon / Rogue River country as well because everyone has heard about Bend a million times.

I’ll make sure to recommend the wonderful Tri-Cities of Kennewick, Pasco, and Richland as well.

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Paine Field in Everett had a 44 mph gust this morning at 10 AM. Pretty impressive for a warm season storm system.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17.75"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

-2/22: 0.25"

-2/24: 0.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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12Z ECMWF is pretty decent for next week as well... holds of the rain until Wednesday now and then its dry again on Thursday.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, bainbridgekid said:

Paine Field in Everett had a 44 mph gust this morning at 10 AM. Pretty impressive for a warm season storm system.

SEA has been gusting to almost 40 mph as well.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Paine Field in Everett had a 44 mph gust this morning at 10 AM. Pretty impressive for a warm season storm system.

1499A877-AE43-4E04-B6E9-454C69916FAB.jpeg

D583F909-0331-480F-AD08-7E2A79F459DE.jpeg

In terms of warm season windstorms, nothing surpasses 8/29/15! Yes, the summer of 2015, of all seasons.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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The few times I’ve been to Bend were all riddled with horribly dense smoke lol

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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8 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

That will never happen here.  Trees fall down when it’s windy. And most of this area is on bedrock, and underground utilities are kind of a challenge sometimes.  I wouldn’t hold my breath for underground power anytime soon. 

Most of the streets look like this here. Power lines underneath tall overhanging firs

FD3BF48D-3ED6-4110-A992-86C40FA77583.jpeg.0d02dab92481fa58fdeeba9eba027dfc.jpeg

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10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The few times I’ve been to Bend were all riddled with horribly dense smoke lol

We usually go in late June early July and rarely run into smoke problems then. Right after the Sisters Rodeo and then we leave town just in time for St Paul Rodeo. Gotta wait until Pendleton... oh wait I'm going back to school by the time Pendleton comes around.

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  • Longtimer

IMO bend is best in spring and autumn. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

 

D583F909-0331-480F-AD08-7E2A79F459DE.jpeg

In terms of warm season windstorms, nothing surpasses 8/29/15! Yes, the summer of 2015, of all seasons.

That storm was insane. Just completely out of the realm of what I even thought possible in August here. Many places broke their May-September wind records by well over 10 degrees.

The fact such a strong storm came right at the end of (at the time) the hottest Summer on record made it even more amazing.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17.75"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

-2/22: 0.25"

-2/24: 0.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

IMO bend is best in spring and autumn. 

Spring is the only season I haven't been to Bend in. About to get that monkey off my back this weekend!

I've already gushed enough about this... but if you get lucky and come in winter during a strong winter storm, like we did in December 2016 and December 2021, nothing beats that.

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1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

How did Eugene manage to get this cold in 2013? Even with snow cover and arctic air, a 19/-10 day is insane.

Screenshot_20220518-111426.png

  1. Everything happens just right to maximize nighttime cooling.
  2. No nearby large bodies of water to help moderate temperature.

Regarding (2), that -10 is colder than SEA, BLI, or YVR have ever recorded.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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34 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The few times I’ve been to Bend were all riddled with horribly dense smoke lol

Me too, but it's still a nice place. I want to see it without the smoke though lol

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12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:
  1. Everything happens just right to maximize nighttime cooling.
  2. No nearby large bodies of water to help moderate temperature.

Regarding (2), that -10 is colder than SEA, BLI, or YVR have ever recorded.

That makes sense, PDX hasn't been that cold ever either.

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1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

That makes sense, PDX hasn't been that cold ever either.

PDX’s proximity to the Gorge tends hurt it when it comes to extreme minima. It is usually at least breezy there during outflow events. Prevents inversions from forming and amplifying the effects of the cold at the surface.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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30 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Most of the streets look like this here. Power lines underneath tall overhanging firs

FD3BF48D-3ED6-4110-A992-86C40FA77583.jpeg.0d02dab92481fa58fdeeba9eba027dfc.jpeg

Yeah I can imagine those skinny softwoods would sway a lot during windstorms.

Where my family lives in Everett there are houses surrounded by 150ft conifers with trunks merely 2ft in diameter. Astonishing they’re even upright. No way trees like that would survive a derecho. 

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2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Also, apparently PDX recorded 2 inches of precip on 1-19-1950 and only 4 inches of snow, despite staying below freezing the whole time?

I'm probably looking at the wrong place though.

Sleet or freezing rain would be a good guess.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Also, apparently PDX recorded 2 inches of precip on 1-19-1950 and only 4 inches of snow, despite staying below freezing the whole time?

I'm probably looking at the wrong place though.

That storm was insane, but it was largely sleet that transitioned to 1-2" freezing rain, with another half inch or so falling on the 20th. Of course it was coming on top of a 10"+ snowpack so the trees were already weighed down. 

Probably the most devastating ice storm on record for Portland-Vancouver and the western gorge, along with February 1-2, 1916. The power was out in Clark County for about a week.

 

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah I can imagine those skinny softwoods would sway a lot during windstorms.

Where my family lives in Everett there are houses surrounded by 150ft conifers with trunks merely 2ft in diameter. Astonishing they’re even upright. No way trees like that would survive a derecho. 

It is only possible in a forested areas, where all the trees act collectively to keep the strongest winds well aloft. No isolated tree that spindly could stay standing for long.

This also explains the blowdown phenomenon: once the wind gets strong enough to make a few trees fail in one locality, a huge tract of forest can get laid low. It’s a positive-feedback loop: the more trees that come down, the more the wind can get into the forest and take more trees down.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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  • Longtimer

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

That storm was insane, but it was largely sleet that transitioned to 1-2" freezing rain, with another half inch or so falling on the 20th. Of course it was coming on top of a 10"+ snowpack so the trees were already weighed down. 

Probably the most devastating ice storm on record for Portland-Vancouver and the western gorge, along with February 1-2, 1916. The power was out in Clark County for about a week.

 

Imagine if that was all snow! Same with February 2021 in my location, if the low was 10 miles to the south, I would've had 10-12 inches of snow, but I had 4.5 inches and a lot of sleet and some ice.

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5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

In-laws just lost power in samammish. They are surrounded by 160ft conifers with trunks merely 3ft in diameter. Perhaps that was a mistake.

Maybe a derecho blew through…

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Weather can't make up its mind this afternoon. Varying wildly between sunbreaks, windy rain showers, or both at the same time. At least we're finally up to the mid-50s. If it weren't so gusty, today would be a good day

Shred it!

Maple Valley/Black Diamond area @ ~550' AGL

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2 hours ago, Doiinko said:

How did Eugene manage to get this cold in 2013? Even with snow cover and arctic air, a 19/-10 day is insane.

Screenshot_20220518-111426.png

This location has the capability of being legendary. Just usually a long waiting game but it will eventually happen again. We are by far the most due part of the region to have a sub-freezing high.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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  • Longtimer

Currently hailing and 49. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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  • Longtimer
30 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Imagine if that was all snow! Same with February 2021 in my location, if the low was 10 miles to the south, I would've had 10-12 inches of snow, but I had 4.5 inches and a lot of sleet and some ice.

Unfortunately the juiciest Pacific systems usually come in with enough warming air aloft to transition us to rain or freezing rain in a case like that with an extremely cold air mass at the surface. 

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6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This location has the capability of being legendary. Just usually a long waiting game but it will eventually happen again. We are by far the most due part of the region to have a sub-freezing high.

Eugene Airport is in a pretty similar geographic/topographic predicament to Corvallis. Both spots are quite favorable for inversions and cold air damming. I think @SilverFallsAndrewonce said Corvallis is one of the best spots for snow and cold in the Willamette Valley.

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13 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This location has the capability of being legendary. Just usually a long waiting game but it will eventually happen again. We are by far the most due part of the region to have a sub-freezing high.

Definitely 

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

The GFS was projecting a deep trough here with a cat3 hurricane slamming New Orleans. :lol: 

It was nowhere close with the large scale pattern. A complete and utter failure.  

That's one fascinating aspect of models. They can be very wrong/right overall, but the opposite for micro-areas that matter much more for an individual person.

Of course, overall the Euro owns all other models for both large-scale and small-scale pattern projections, but it's still not uncommon to see results diverge.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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