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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


The Blob

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Getting some serious Tim weather out here today.

Full sunshine and 80 degrees with rock bottom humidity. Gonna make the most of these next few weeks since this kind of weather won’t return for 4+ months once the swamp switch turns on.

 

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Nice to see the GFS ensembles flatter with the week two ridging than the operational. I remember when the operational runs were sold on a massive ridge starting around the 5th and that has since been reduced to a pretty short lived one between troughs. Will have to see if we get that lucky again with the next round 

17883F6C-5377-4B50-913C-F868394EA912.png

It did that in mid-April as well. Something about the last GFS upgrade really screwed up now it handles NPAC shortwaves during the spring months. Don’t see the issue as much during the second half of summer or autumn.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Minnesota might go from endless winter right into the furnace next week...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t2m_f_max6-2227200.png

At least we stay in E/NE flow with the big ridge in the Midwest. Will keep temps (and especially humidity) at bay. Waters are still chilly enough to serve as an air conditioner at this time of year.

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26 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Haha I just saw that! It's showing a massive 12-24" region wide snowstorm early next week. Still a long ways out but most importantly the Euro shows a widespread 3-4" of precip over the next 10 days.

Looking like a great start to our wet season.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA is just about to 20% of normal rainfall for May just this morning.     Lets keep it going and get to above normal for the entire month by this weekend.   

We’re probably going to be above average precip for may within the first 10 days of the month. Pretty decent snow totals in the WA/OR cascades on this run too. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Moab Opinion from locals - red dust sucks and blows everywhere! Winds are brutal here as well blowing the red dust! 
Experienced that yesterday.  Impossible to keep the 4Runner clean here.!!  Can’t imagine trying to keep outdoor furniture clean. 
meanwhile, beautiful day here once again…..an apology for yesterday 

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4 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Moab Opinion from locals - red dust sucks and blows everywhere! Winds are brutal here as well blowing the red dust! 
Experienced that yesterday.  Impossible to keep the 4Runner clean here.!!  Can’t imagine trying to keep outdoor furniture clean. 
meanwhile, beautiful day here once again…..an apology for yesterday 

Seems like every climate has its drawbacks 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Minnesota might go from endless winter right into the furnace next week...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t2m_f_max6-2227200.png

LMAO the sales guy I work with lives outside Minneapolis and has been whining about needing some warm weather for the last 3 months.  We have been trying to get a sales conference schedule in L.A. since late February.

 

Finally got it scheduled for........next week.  Oh well, at least he will get some beach time.

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Control run completely did away with any ridging for next week... might avert a couple days without rain.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Here is the 12Z EPS run... still shows the pattern quieting down after this weekend.    

The control run is another story.   Its comically wet for the next 15 days with basically no break.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1651492800-1651492800-1652788800-10.gif

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is the 12Z EPS run... still shows the pattern quieting down after this weekend.    

The control run is another story.   Its comically wet for the next 15 days with basically no break.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1651492800-1651492800-1652788800-10.gif

Check out the individual solutions. They’re all over the place. Some have death ridges, others have deep troughs. Low predictability, for whatever reason.

I think the GFS operational being such an extreme outlier has messed with our expectations a bit. That model has been falsely advertising these ridgy, blocked up patterns for weeks now, and the upcoming pattern is exactly the type that would exploit those problems.

Not that the pattern won’t change. Most guidance seems to concur that it will, at least to some extent. But the GFS takes that and goes Amber Heard caliber crazy with it.

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Check out the individual solutions. They’re all over the place. Some have death ridges, others have deep troughs. Low predictability, for whatever reason.

I think the GFS operational being such an extreme outlier has messed with our expectations a bit. That model has been falsely advertising these ridgy, blocked up patterns for weeks now, and the upcoming pattern is exactly the type that would exploit those problems.

Not that the pattern won’t change. Most guidance seems to concur that it will, at least to some extent. But the GFS takes that and goes Amber Heard caliber crazy with it.

Sometimes a big pattern change becomes inevitable when you see wildly different solutions in the short and mid range end up in the same place regardless.    The 12Z ECMWF and to larger extent the 12Z control run tells me this is not one of those times and a pattern change is far from inevitable right now.

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50F with some light rain. What a great stretch of spring weather for here. This time last year we already had the AC in. Hopefully can keep the 90F+ football pictures in the QBs and some receivers.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sometimes a big pattern change becomes inevitable when you see wildly different solutions in the short and mid range end up in the same place regardless.    The 12Z ECMWF and to larger extent the 12Z control run tells me this is not one of those times and a pattern change is far from inevitable right now.

To some extent both of those solutions are still pattern changes. At least over the North Pacific. But that might not translate to meaningful weather changes in some regions.

There’s also another CCKW type feature projected to cross the pacific in a week, so predictability might be low for awhile if it has any meaningful impact.

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Going to Anderson, Cali for a wedding this week. Looks to be 92 and sunny on Wednesday🔥🔥🥵🥵

Somehow Redding airport finished April with a positive temp departure. One of the most impressive April cold snaps since probably the 1930s just to the north… and they can’t even manage a below average month out of it. Comical.

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It has been raining all morning.  It recently turned into showers on and off.  Thick cloud cover.  Currently a warm-ish 52F, but it feels so much cooler.

 

I'm liking the clouds and rain in this.  Hopefully next Monday and beyond will have time to get rainier (Not Mt. Rainier) and cloudier!  Loving this spring so far. :)  Keep temps down.

Screen Shot 2022-05-02 at 2.31.46 PM.png

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46 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

It has been raining all morning.  It recently turned into showers on and off.  Thick cloud cover.  Currently a warm-ish 52F, but it feels so much cooler.

 

I'm liking the clouds and rain in this.  Hopefully next Monday and beyond will have time to get rainier (Not Mt. Rainier) and cloudier!  Loving this spring so far. :)  Keep temps down.

Screen Shot 2022-05-02 at 2.31.46 PM.png

62 would be crazy hot... very unusual for May.   😀

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4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Hood Basin reporting 172% of normal snowpack. Probably going to be nearing or exceeding 200% by Monday.

In most of OR and WA, drought is pretty much our last concern right now. Definitely a surplus year thus far.

This ^

👍

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59 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Somehow Redding airport finished April with a positive temp departure. One of the most impressive April cold snaps since probably the 1930s just to the north… and they can’t even manage a below average month out of it. Comical.

That’ll happen when your soil has zero moisture left and is effectively a massive heating blanket. That’s how the dust bowl worked in the 20s and 30s.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Hood Basin reporting 172% of normal snowpack. Probably going to be nearing or exceeding 200% by Monday.

In most of OR and WA, drought is pretty much our last concern right now. Definitely a surplus year thus far.

except SE OR.  Spokane somehow is still slightly below normal for the year in precip and was below normal in the valley on snow for the season

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That’ll happen when your soil has zero moisture left and is effectively a massive heating blanket. That’s how the dust bowl worked in the 20s and 30s.

Technically... Redding finished April slightly wetter than normal.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The GFS is still trying to backtrack that Aleutian TPV D4-5.

But no other piece of guidance does that now. Not even the warm EPS members.

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That thing right there. 18z GFS erroneously absorbs it back into the Aleutian Low, similar to early last month.

8B6396F6-F2C3-4202-A2C7-BF2D02B9381E.jpeg

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

That thing right there. GFS erroneously absorbs it back into the Aleutian Low. Deja-vu all over again.

8B6396F6-F2C3-4202-A2C7-BF2D02B9381E.jpeg

Interestingly... the GEFS mean does the same thing.

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1651514400-1651827600-1652108400-10.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interestingly... the GEFS mean does the same thing.

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1651514400-1651827600-1652108400-10.gif

And they’re both probably wrong. Same was true a month ago.

I have a hunch the GFS will cave soon (probably on the 00z run tonight) given how close we are in time to the divergence. Less than 4 days out now.

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