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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


The Blob

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22 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Sky is looking a little interesting this afternoon.  Seeing some lightning strikes across the border on radar 

90CF4B7E-99BB-406F-8010-D171D8BC0A10.jpeg

North of Abbotsford has been electric all day. Maybe something to drift into your area? Radar isn’t hopeful.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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We need to see a lot more of this.

image.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

North of Abbotsford has been electric all day. Maybe something to drift into your area? Radar isn’t hopeful.

Kind of fun watching the convection on the visible sat pic.  Kind of interesting that a pattern that would bring Arctic air in the winter is bringing this now.  I was really surprised by the persistent low clouds in the Seattle area today.  Tonight looks crystal clear though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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60F and beautiful. Kiddos enjoying playing outside.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

60F and beautiful. Kiddos enjoying playing outside.

Sun with below normal temps is as good as it gets this time of year IMO.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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60 degree days with radiant sunshine in late May aren’t exactly super common around here. Very great weather day.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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SEA only missed their record low by 1 degree today.  41 is pretty chilly for them this time of year.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

60 degree days with radiant sunshine in late May aren’t exactly super common around here. Very great weather day.

Just flat out impressive how persistent this chilly weather has been.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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ENSO regions have warmed a little this week.    Not sure if this is an actual move towards neutral or just temporary.

nino34 (9).png

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1 (6).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just flat out impressive how persistent this chilly weather has been.

Is it just me, or did we used to be able to pull off clear and cool weather during the warm season better than we do now? Seems like anything cooler than normal during the warm season these days comes with incessant gloom.

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10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

60/41 day here. Clouds definitely held on longer than anticipated so highs were five or so degrees below guidance. Nice change of pace. Suns out now though.

Some good model trends today too.

Ol' Blue aint done with us yet

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1653069600-1653069600-1654452000-10.gif

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42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ENSO regions have warmed a little this week.    Not sure if this is an actual move towards neutral or just temporary.

nino34 (9).png

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1 (6).png

Temporary warming due to the CCKW passage. Will be some cooling over the next week, then another round of warming with the next CCKW.

Big trade burst/constructive interference regime timed for mid/late June, as well.

AF36A14A-2B03-45C4-9647-EF7B4D77A733.png

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My son is moving into their new house today at UW... $10 million renovation that took 18 months to complete.   It's like a hotel.     Had to laugh when I saw he has palm trees right out his window.     

His view includes a little bit of Lake Washington and downtown Bellevue in the distance.    Not bad.

Snapchat-1768748402.jpg

Snapchat-1390240367.jpg

Snapchat-1132171255.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Note the EPS weeklies depict a low pass IO/EHEM upper level divergence signal with subsidence across the west-central Pacific.

Good circulation to maintain -PNA going into the summer months.

82EE8530-587C-4CDB-97E2-C6566D8195B2.jpeg

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41 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

Is it just me, or did we used to be able to pull off clear and cool weather during the warm season better than we do now? Seems like anything cooler than normal during the warm season these days comes with incessant gloom.

No doubt.  In fact the first quarter of the 20th century had extremely dry summers (maybe even drier than now) and many of the summers were quite cool.  Even more recently we were able to pull off cool temps without gloom in the summer pretty regularly.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sub-surface warming spreading eastward as well...

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

That subsurface water is still cooler than the surface water. The subsurface anomalies are a result of a old downwelling wave that is being chewed up by easterlies.

If you look at U-current anomalies the westerly transport is mediocre at best, as both the IPWP (domain of DOKW inception) and EPAC are experiencing easterly current anomalies.

IE: A weak sauce kelvin wave that is barely even conversational. The early summer kelvin waves in 2011 and 2012 were both more impressive than this.

05AAAA54-A4CE-4BC2-B22B-A7A6BF475042.gif

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Note the EPS weeklies depict a low pass IO/EHEM upper level divergence signal with subsidence across the west-central Pacific.

Good circulation to maintain -PNA going into the summer months.

82EE8530-587C-4CDB-97E2-C6566D8195B2.jpeg

This might be one of those years where we will be able to maintain minus PNA pretty consistently during all seasons.  Pretty amazing that some years manage to pull of the right MJO phases so consistently even though the requirements for each season are different to deliver cool troughing to the NW.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My son is moving into their new house today at UW... $10 million renovation that took 18 months to complete.   It's like a hotel.     Had to laugh when I saw he has palm trees right out his window.     

His view includes a little bit of Lake Washington and downtown Bellevue in the distance.    Not bad.

Snapchat-1768748402.jpg

Snapchat-1390240367.jpg

Snapchat-1132171255.jpg

I’d hurt myself on that ladder. 😂 Hope he’s not sleeping up there or broken bones are likely in store.

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This might be one of those years where we will be able to maintain minus PNA pretty consistently during all seasons.  Pretty amazing that some years manage to pull of the right MJO phases so consistently even though the requirements for each season are different to deliver cool troughing to the NW.

Looking that way, yes. At least to start. There are warmer risks in August/September in many of the seasonal analogs, but that’s less certain. June/July both appear solidly in the troughy/-PNA camp.

The fact we have such a prolific intraseasonal/MJO cycle and still maintain the theme of western troughing speaks volumes, IMO.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

I’d hurt myself on that ladder. 😂 Hope he’s not sleeping up there or broken bones are likely in store.

Oh... that is where he will be sleeping.     He built his own lofted bed in their old house so he is used to climbing up to go to sleep.    This is my kid who climbs trees like a monkey and has no problem going up on our steep-pitched roof to hang Christmas lights.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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44 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The CCUK is still favorable.

I don't kink shame, but I've never understood that one!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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22 minutes ago, Phil said:

Temporary warming due to the CCKW passage. Will be some cooling over the next week, then another round of warming with the next CCKW.

Big trade burst/constructive interference regime timed for mid/late June, as well.

AF36A14A-2B03-45C4-9647-EF7B4D77A733.png

I like another round of warming coming.  👍

Regardless of all the charts and graphs... I just get a sense that ENSO might be hovering around neutral by mid-summer.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Temps warming back into the mid-80s as we near 11pm. Can’t believe it’s already summer. What the frick.

We should have at least a few cooldowns left in the tank before this becomes permanent. I think?

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Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The days start getting shorter in 32 days. 

Seasonal lag is a b*tch.     This might be a year in which summer-like weather goes well into October.     Then maybe the hammer drops in November.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Winter 2022-23 will bring something truly epic to someone.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Winter 2022-23 will bring something truly epic to someone.

This seems like a very good call.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I like another round of warming coming.  👍

Regardless of all the charts and graphs... I just get a sense that ENSO might be hovering around neutral by mid-summer.  

Nah it’s going to stay negative, likely right around that weak Niña threshold with the typical weekly ups/downs.

That said, whether that slice of water ends up at -0.4 or -0.6 isn’t going to make much of a difference as far as weather/climate impacts are concerned.

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-7.4°F departure at KSEA today w/ a 51.0°F avg and a 61/41 spread. Stellar late May day.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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