May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Nah it’s going to stay negative, likely right around that weak Niña threshold with the typical weekly ups/downs.

That said, whether that slice of water ends up at -0.4 or -0.6 isn’t going to make much of a difference.

It was in that range by mid-summer the last couple of years as well.     Also in 2011... which turned into a beautiful summer in the July-Sept period.     Only 10 days with measureable rain out here in the foothills between June 20th - October 2nd in 2011.  

[Meatyorologist]

I wouldn't say weather models are that funny but this got a chuckle out of me lol

[TT-SEA]

Thunderstorm watchers might want to head up to Snoqualmie Pass tomorrow afternoon.    Even a chance they make it down to North Bend in the evening before falling apart.

 

[TT-SEA]

00Z NAM loop for tomorrow...

 

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I wouldn't say weather models are that funny but this got a chuckle out of me lol

How can a model possibly be that warm biased? All that money spent and we get no value from it.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It was in that range by mid-summer the last couple of years as well.     Also in 2011... which turned into a beautiful summer in the July-Sept period.     Only 10 days with measureable rain out here in the foothills between June 20 - October 2 in 2011.  

The tropical-midlatitude coupling is undoubtedly stronger than last year and arguably any year in decades. A totally different animal, since summer last year resembled more of a warped +ENSO hybrid w/ a front loaded warm season (no duh) gradually tapering into some chiller late August weather. Every month ran warm in the PNW, with several locations (KGEG, KEUG, KSLE, ect) setting records for all time seasonal warmth. Western ridging was absurd and quite literally all time record breaking. 

This time last year we were looking forward to a major heat wave on the horizon to ring in June, shortly after reaching 70°F at KSEA for six straight days mid May. April was overwhelmingly ridgy and reached 80°F on the 17th, and 70°F eight times in total including a week straight. I think you'll be the first to agree that -ENSO isn't the whole story, and that last year was a great example of that. But for whatever reason, this warm season seems to be directly tied with the current La Niña regime and this 'mode' of the atmosphere doesn't seem to want to end any time soon. It happens around once every decade or so given 2010/11, 1999/00/01, 1983/84, ect. This upcoming cold season may very well continue a Pacific dominated regime, not necessarily Arctic.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Phil said:

How can a model possibly be that warm biased? All that money spent and we get no value from it.

It's the single, comically placed normal heights over WA that does it for me 

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It was in that range by mid-summer the last couple of years as well.     Also in 2011... which turned into a beautiful summer in the July-Sept period.     Only 10 days with measureable rain out here in the foothills between June 20th - October 2nd in 2011.  

Even 1999 was barely in weak niña territory by the middle or summer. Same with 1955.

Strong ENSO SST signatures are exceedingly difficult to maintain during boreal summer.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The tropical-midlatitude coupling is undoubtedly stronger than last year and arguably any year in decades. A totally different animal, since summer last year resembled more of a warped +ENSO hybrid w/ a front loaded warm season (no duh) gradually tapering into some chiller late August weather. Every month ran warm in the PNW, with several locations (KGEG, KEUG, KSLE, ect) setting records for all time seasonal warmth. Western ridging was absurd and quite literally all time record breaking. 

This time last year we were looking forward to a major heat wave on the horizon to ring in June, shortly after reaching 70°F at KSEA for six straight days mid May. April was overwhelmingly ridgy and reached 80°F on the 17th, and 70°F eight times in total including a week straight. I think you'll be the first to agree that -ENSO isn't the whole story, and that last year was a great example of that. But for whatever reason, this warm season seems to be directly tied with the current La Niña regime and this 'mode' of the atmosphere doesn't seem to want to end any time soon. It happens around once every decade or so given 2010/11, 1999/00/01, 1983/84, ect. This upcoming cold season may very well continue a Pacific dominated regime, not necessarily Arctic.

You seem to think I am predicting a warm summer...  I am definitely not.   But I do think the very persistent rain in April and May is a good sign for a summer that lean towards drier than normal... particularly after mid June.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Even 1999 was barely in weak niña territory by the middle or summer. Same with 1955.

Strong ENSO SST signatures are exceedingly difficult to maintain during boreal summer.

1999 maintained -1.0 or lower the entire year.  

[RentonHill]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Thunderstorm watchers might want to head up to Snoqualmie Pass tomorrow afternoon.    Even a chance they make it down to North Bend in the evening before falling apart.

 

If only we knew someone in north bend with a good place to watch for storms. Someone with a nice slate patio and view of nearby hillsides and even some gardens or whatever ya know just good weather watching ambiance 

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The tropical-midlatitude coupling is undoubtedly stronger than last year and arguably any year in decades. A totally different animal, since summer last year resembled more of a warped +ENSO hybrid w/ a front loaded warm season (no duh) gradually tapering into some chiller late August weather. Every month ran warm in the PNW, with several locations (KGEG, KEUG, KSLE, ect) setting records for all time seasonal warmth. Western ridging was absurd and quite literally all time record breaking. 

This time last year we were looking forward to a major heat wave on the horizon to ring in June, shortly after reaching 70°F at KSEA for six straight days mid May. April was overwhelmingly ridgy and reached 80°F on the 17th, and 70°F eight times in total including a week straight. I think you'll be the first to agree that -ENSO isn't the whole story, and that last year was a great example of that. But for whatever reason, this warm season seems to be directly tied with the current La Niña regime and this 'mode' of the atmosphere doesn't seem to want to end any time soon. It happens around once every decade or so given 2010/11, 1999/00/01, 1983/84, ect. This upcoming cold season may very well continue a Pacific dominated regime, not necessarily Arctic.

KPDX was second by 0.1 degrees as well.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

If only we knew someone in north bend with a good place to watch for storms. Someone with a nice slate patio and view of nearby hillsides and even some gardens or whatever ya know just good weather watching ambiance 

Just bought a case of Hazy IPA... its chillin in the fridge right now.  

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The tropical-midlatitude coupling is undoubtedly stronger than last year and arguably any year in decades. A totally different animal, since summer last year resembled more of a warped +ENSO hybrid w/ a front loaded warm season (no duh) gradually tapering into some chiller late August weather. Every month ran warm in the PNW, with several locations (KGEG, KEUG, KSLE, ect) setting records for all time seasonal warmth. Western ridging was absurd and quite literally all time record breaking. 

This time last year we were looking forward to a major heat wave on the horizon to ring in June, shortly after reaching 70°F at KSEA for six straight days mid May. April was overwhelmingly ridgy and reached 80°F on the 17th, and 70°F eight times in total including a week straight. I think you'll be the first to agree that -ENSO isn't the whole story, and that last year was a great example of that. But for whatever reason, this warm season seems to be directly tied with the current La Niña regime and this 'mode' of the atmosphere doesn't seem to want to end any time soon. It happens around once every decade or so given 2010/11, 1999/00/01, 1983/84, ect. This upcoming cold season may very well continue a Pacific dominated regime, not necessarily Arctic.

This is an important point.

There was a significant downwelling OKW last spring/early summer (and much more of a STJ/high AAM most) that helped weaken the subtropical/extratropical -ENSO reflection. In conjunction with the wide Hadley Cell, it was just a compilation of crappy forcings.

Much improved/more canonical cold phase -ENSO look now.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

1999 maintained -1.0 or lower the entire year.  

In trimonthly ONI, not monthly niño 3.4 SSTAs.

If we’re going by ONI there’s zero chance we escape Niña threshold until the August release (and very little chance we avoid a Niña summer).

And that’s assuming maximum potential warming.

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just bought a case of Hazy IPA... its chillin in the fridge right now.  

It better be cold by the time we get there tomorrow!!

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You seem to think I am predicting a warm summer...  I am definitely not.   But I do think the very persistent rain in April and May is a good sign for a summer that lean towards drier than normal... particularly after mid June.

A “dry” pattern (w/ respect to climo) seems unlikely up there until August. Assuming it’s actually going to happen.

QBO/MQI analogs (filtered for ENSO) actually have a wet signal in the PNW region near/west of the cascades.

But lots of dry shows up in CA/Intermountain West. And southern/central Plains. Ugly for a lot of people but doesn’t appear to be a significant risk across coastal WA/OR.

[weatherfan2012]

14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The tropical-midlatitude coupling is undoubtedly stronger than last year and arguably any year in decades. A totally different animal, since summer last year resembled more of a warped +ENSO hybrid w/ a front loaded warm season (no duh) gradually tapering into some chiller late August weather. Every month ran warm in the PNW, with several locations (KGEG, KEUG, KSLE, ect) setting records for all time seasonal warmth. Western ridging was absurd and quite literally all time record breaking. 

This time last year we were looking forward to a major heat wave on the horizon to ring in June, shortly after reaching 70°F at KSEA for six straight days mid May. April was overwhelmingly ridgy and reached 80°F on the 17th, and 70°F eight times in total including a week straight. I think you'll be the first to agree that -ENSO isn't the whole story, and that last year was a great example of that. But for whatever reason, this warm season seems to be directly tied with the current La Niña regime and this 'mode' of the atmosphere doesn't seem to want to end any time soon. It happens around once every decade or so given 2010/11, 1999/00/01, 1983/84, ect. This upcoming cold season may very well continue a Pacific dominated regime, not necessarily Arctic.

The thing I'm lost on is why Larry Cosgrove is so certain on a weak El Nino end of summer fall I have alot of respect for him as he is a great met but I'm just not sure what it is that he is seeing to be forecasting that.It has made for some interesting comments on his facebook page as some are asking him what he thinks of the on going La nina.

[NWbyNW]

It has been very sunny and nice the past couple days.  Looks like it will continue this weekend.  Got so much outdoor house work done these past few days.  It almost hit 60F today, got to 59F.  It is still fairly breezy here at the water, making it feel much cooler than it is.  Currently still a warm 54F, but it feels much cooler.  The mid-range forecast shows we might even near 70F.  Don't think we will, but that is interesting.

Hope all had a nice Friday.

[Phil]

To put into perspective how much colder ENSO is now compared to 2011 and 2021.

Not even on the same planet.

[TT-SEA]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

To put into perspective how much colder ENSO is now compared to 2011 and 2021.

Not even on the same planet.

 

Here is 1999...

[Doinko]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Here is 1999...

So much blue!

[Phil]

26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Here is 1999...

Yep ENSO much closer to 1999 than 2011.

Differential heating is what matters w/rt SST forcing on global circulation/seasonal patterns, so we should also account for the global warming since then.

In which standards, the current ENSO is actually more impressive than 1999.

[smerfylicious]

Don't worry y'all when the magnetic reversal happens and Earth tilts at a 90 degree angle for an as-yet unexplained reason, and the sun fires off a superflare thanks to the galactic dust from the galactic equatorial transition...we'll all be enjoying a new little ice age. Something something Dansgaard–Oeschger event lol

edit: I should clarify that I don't buy into this, but you can't get good solar weather news without being bombarded by it nowadays.

[The Blob]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

I wouldn't say weather models are that funny but this got a chuckle out of me lol

Perfect birthday weather.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is actually pretty nice for the holiday weekend.   Who knows... last weekend it started showing this weekend being nice when the ECMWF was showing a complete washout.    And the GFS ended up being right. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, NWbyNW said:

It has been very sunny and nice the past couple days.  Looks like it will continue this weekend.  Got so much outdoor house work done these past few days.  It almost hit 60F today, got to 59F.  It is still fairly breezy here at the water, making it feel much cooler than it is.  Currently still a warm 54F, but it feels much cooler.  The mid-range forecast shows we might even near 70F.  Don't think we will, but that is interesting.

Hope all had a nice Friday.

Going to be a hot Sunday

[MV_snow]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt.  In fact the first quarter of the 20th century had extremely dry summers (maybe even drier than now) and many of the summers were quite cool.  Even more recently we were able to pull off cool temps without gloom in the summer pretty regularly.

I would love to experience one of these old school summers once. Sub 70 highs under clear skies with chilly nights sounds amazing. Unfortunately would have to live in the mountains to experience that these days lol.

[Anti Marine Layer]

On 5/16/2022 at 11:03 AM, TT-SEA said:

You may not notice this... but for starters every single post from anyone mentioning that some drier weather would be nice is met with a troll or weenie reaction from him.   Literally every post.     If you think wanting a little dry weather is just trolling then I am not sure what to say.    That is a perfectly reasonable expectation even in a Nina spring and its a genuine desire.

Suddenly since he feels free to be himself... there is this constant battle again.  The respectful Cascadia is gone.   He just cannot allow dissenting opinions.   I don't care if Andrew wants rain every day.   That is great.   Have at it.    But saying its been unusually persistently wet and some drier weather would be nice seems to be taken as a direct attack on Andrew and Jesse.   I understand their perspective.    They have watched long-term drought impact their environment and then went through the 2020 fires.   Now they want as much rain as possible.    I get it.   What more can I say?     And I still would like a few more dry days mixed in.... and that is my perspective.   

You said his name

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I wouldn't say weather models are that funny but this got a chuckle out of me lol

WA is ground zero right now.  Just like a black hole over us sucking up all of the cold.

[Omegaraptor]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Temps warming back into the mid-80s as we near 11pm. Can’t believe it’s already summer. What the frick.

We should have at least a few cooldowns left in the tank before this becomes permanent. I think?

We haven’t even hit 80 once yet. 
 

There’s a chance it happens on Wednesday. Tomorrow is May 21… so if Wednesday fails to hit 80 we could get into some pretty historically late territory for our first 80.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

To put into perspective how much colder ENSO is now compared to 2011 and 2021.

Not even on the same planet.

That PDO is off the charts minus as well.

[Doinko]

27 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

We haven’t even hit 80 once yet. 
 

There’s a chance it happens on Wednesday. Tomorrow is May 21… so if Wednesday fails to hit 80 we could get into some pretty historically late territory for our first 80.

Mark Nelsen went from 82 to 78 on that day, but that could definitely change as it's still a few days out. I hope we hit 79 and no more lol.

[Phil]

35 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

We haven’t even hit 80 once yet. 
 

There’s a chance it happens on Wednesday. Tomorrow is May 21… so if Wednesday fails to hit 80 we could get into some pretty historically late territory for our first 80.

Rubbing it in are ya?  Hunga Tonga ftw.

Still stuck in the mid-80s here as of 2AM, despite clear skies. Must be some warm temps at the top of the boundary layer.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

Rubbing it in are ya?  Hunga Tonga ftw.

Still stuck in the mid-80s here as of 2AM, despite clear skies. Must be some warm temps at the top of the boundary layer.

Yuck.  Already well below 50 here tonight.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yuck.  Already well below 50 here tonight.

And it’s only 11:15pm there. That’s sick.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

39 

[Cloud]

4 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Winter 2022-23 will bring something truly epic to someone.

You didn't specify if that "someone" is from the forums. So 100% this will be verified

[TigerWoodsLibido]

41F and beautiful stars.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Some are hoping for a repeat of 1954.