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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Is that where you’re going?

Longer days too!

Didn't even think of it until now... but wow that sounds nice!

And it looks like the trees are all leafed out near the arctic circle as well... apparently WAY ahead of Bozeman MT and Bend OR.   😃

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Found cam in Fairbanks that lets you scroll back 30 days... it was dumping snow with bare trees just 2 weeks ago and now it looks like summer.   @Kayla what is up with Bozeman?   ;)

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

High of 67 with dry weather forecast in Pasco on both Saturday and Sunday.

Too cold.    I am not sure if I have ever set foot in Pasco.

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Found cam in Fairbanks that lets you scroll back 30 days... it was dumping snow with bare trees just 2 weeks ago and now it looks like summer.   @Kayla what is up with Bozeman?   ;)

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The 18 hours of daylight probably helps.

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8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

The 18 hours of daylight probably helps.

Not sure... Bozeman has 15.25 hours of daylight now.    Sun angle is higher down here too.  

Bozeman is rocking a 65-degree sun angle with bare trees... Fairbanks has a 46-degree sun angle with fully leafed out trees.  😃

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure... Bozeman has 15.25 hours of daylight now.    Sun angle is higher down here too.  

Fairbanks actually has 19.75 hours of daylight now, so it's quite a significant difference. And yes, the warm weather there in the last week certainly helps. But that's normal for them. They warm up incredibly quickly in May as the daylight rapidly increases. They go from a 53/30 average on May 1 to a 67/44 average on May 31.  And probably leaf out quickly every year.

Edited by BLI snowman
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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Fairbanks actually has 19.75 hours of daylight now, so it's quite a significant difference. And yes, the warm weather there in the last week certainly helps. But that's normal for them. They warm up incredibly quickly in May as the daylight rapidly increases. They go from a 53/30 average on May 1 to a 67/44 average on May 31.  And probably leaf out quickly every year.

I added details about the sun angle... just crazy their trees can do that with a 46-degree sun angle after being frozen solid in frigid temps for 7 months.    There has been frost on most nights this month in Fairbanks and they did not get above 57 degrees until a few days ago.    And yet... in one week they have full leaf out.   

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I added details about the sun angle... just crazy their trees can do that with a 46-degree sun angle after being frozen solid in frigid temps for 7 months.    There has been frost on most nights this month in Fairbanks and they did not get above 57 degrees until a few days ago.    And yet... in one week they have full leaf out.   

Their climate really isn't comparable to anywhere in the lower 48. For all intents and purposes they don't have a true spring or a true fall, as most people would see it. Essentially a 2 season climate there. They tend to go into winter just as quickly.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Their climate really isn't comparable to anywhere in the lower 48. For all intents and purposes they don't have a true spring or a true fall, as most people would see it. Essentially a 2 season climate there. They tend to go into winter just as quickly.

Makes sense.   It would be really strange to fly from Fairbanks to Bozeman or Bend right now and go 2,500 miles to the south and go from fully leafed trees back to bare trees.   😄

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

There are glaciated peaks along the equator, but hot summer Mediterranean climates like Redding almost halfway to the North Pole. Elevation can do a lot.

Yeah... must be elevation.  Fairbanks is at 446 feet and Bozeman is almost 5,000 feet.   But even at that elevation Bozeman has been warmer than Fairbanks this month.  

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Actually got some decent downpours here in the last hour. Up to .06” on the day. Nice little bonus rainfall that wasn’t really forecast.

Its still balmy out too, close to 60 degrees. The mild rain combined with the very green landscape makes for a nice atmosphere outside right now 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Didn't even think of it until now... but wow that sounds nice!

And it looks like the trees are all leafed out near the arctic circle as well... apparently WAY ahead of Bozeman MT and Bend OR.   😃

fairbanks.png

Fairbanks averages highs near 65 this time of year.

A forum for the end of the world.

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Fairbanks averages highs near 65 this time of year.

Yes... Bozeman average is at 68 now.

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Picked up about .15 here with the light rain this evening... ending a 4 day streak.  

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Point was you were making a big deal of "a place near the Arctic circle lol" basically experiencing normal weather.

The point was that a place near the arctic circle has fully leafed out trees now while a place like Bozeman with warmer weather and far from the arctic circle does not.   Regardless of normal... its fascinating how quickly it can happen up in Fairbanks.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Anchorage is the place to be this weekend... need to go 2,000 miles north.   

 

Screenshot_20220524-183513_Google.jpg

According to @Phil that will never advect here ;)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The point was that a place near the arctic circle has fully leafed out trees now while a place like Bozeman with warmer weather and far from the arctic circle does not.   Regardless of normal... its fascinating how quickly it can happen up in Fairbanks.

Incomprehensible. 

14dTDeptHPRCC-MT.png

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Re: Memorial Day…watch the trend in the base of the offshore ridge. Each GFS run pushes it slightly farther out to sea.

FBA91FDF-5B13-49EA-AB40-046849E614EF.gif

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7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Incomprehensible. 

14dTDeptHPRCC-MT.png

Bozeman average temp this month is still warmer than Fairbanks average temp this month... regardless of normal.  And a sun angle 20 degrees higher.  It is pretty interesting.  I am guessing it comes down to the trees adapting to flip the switch very fast to get enough photosynthesis during the short summer to survive. 

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BTW the GFS just had another epic fail out in the NATL.

Apparently it has the same problem with cutoff ULLs out there as it does over the NPAC.

This is at D4. Huge correction. 

A1C31B1A-167A-4DBB-9122-185B9C6AF34A.gif

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Kept it under 80F today. Only got to 78F. Beautiful.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Kept it under 80F today. Only got to 78F. Beautiful.

Sounds absolutely delightful.    

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Found cam in Fairbanks that lets you scroll back 30 days... it was dumping snow with bare trees just 2 weeks ago and now it looks like summer.   @Kayla what is up with Bozeman?   ;)

fb1.png

fb2.png

18 hours of sunlight and much lower elevation usually does the trick!

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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2 hours ago, rsktkr said:

Is this year going to be remembered as the year without a Spring?

I don't know what the criteria is. Is there an official criteria for such a thing?

Pretty much a lock here.  Still skating through the season without a 70 degree day here.   Next Tuesday could be a close call but that’s a ways off. 

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46 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The point was that a place near the arctic circle has fully leafed out trees now while a place like Bozeman with warmer weather and far from the arctic circle does not.   Regardless of normal... its fascinating how quickly it can happen up in Fairbanks.

It's not really that fascinating. They've been getting way more daylight than us since the Equinox and they are nearly 5,000ft lower in elevation. This year's leaf out is especially late but we always run behind AK leaf out for said reasons.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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9 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Corvallis got to 75 today. Absolutely gorgeous.

Different world up here...again.  Only got to 63 here and was gloomy / wet in the late afternoon.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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I was looking at January 1980, and apparently Downtown Portland had more snow than PDX? I thought that in those situations areas closers to the Gorge do better. Downtown had like 16 inches while Hillsboro only had around 3? I wonder how my area might've done, being in between them and close to the West Hills, but farther north. The snow totals farther north and east were crazy though. And that winter followed the already great winter of 1978-1979.

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2 hours ago, rsktkr said:

Is this year going to be remembered as the year without a Spring?

I don't know what the criteria is. Is there an official criteria for such a thing?

We should send Hunga Tonga a gift basket.

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66/43 today. Just have to Make it through one more day of this crap. Lol

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

We should send Hunga Tonga a gift basket.

When the Willamette, Umpqua, McKenzie, and Marys rivers freeze over this upcoming winter from repeated and significant Arctic blasts we'll do it.

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58 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Different world up here...again.  Only got to 63 here and was gloomy / wet in the late afternoon.

66 for a high here, and also wet in the afternoon. 66/48 on the day with .08” precip.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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4 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Their climate really isn't comparable to anywhere in the lower 48. For all intents and purposes they don't have a true spring or a true fall, as most people would see it. Essentially a 2 season climate there. They tend to go into winter just as quickly.

I think it's super interesting how quickly their temperatures max out there in the summer. Basically no seasonal lag with the earliest summer high temps in the whole country. The average high peaks at 74F on June 22, but does manage to stay above 70F until the beginning of August.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.24 (2010)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 21.75" (12/24: Tr, 12/25: 5", 12/26: 3", 12/27: 1.5", 12/28: Tr, 12/29: 1", 12/30: 3", 1/5: 2.5", 1/6: 1", 2/2: Tr, 2/21: 1.5", 2/22: 0.75", 2/23: 1.5", 2/24: 1")

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50F on a nice, calm night. Hope everyone is doing ok. I've got a nasty virus so I'm stuck at home...which is nothing new.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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8 hours ago, Kayla said:

It's not really that fascinating. They've been getting way more daylight than us since the Equinox and they are nearly 5,000ft lower in elevation. This year's leaf out is especially late but we always run behind AK leaf out for said reasons.

It is pretty fascinating.    I don't think there is that big of a difference between 18 hours of daylight and 15.25 hours.   If that was the case then leaf out would move from north to south after the equinox.     And your sun angle is way higher so there is more sun energy in Bozeman than in Fairbanks.    Elevation only matters in terms of temps.  Although its been colder than normal in Bozeman... its still been warmer than Fairbanks.   I think it comes down to tree adaptability.   Their summer peaks in June up there so the trees have to leaf out very fast in order to survive.   I just never realized how fast it happens up there.   The trees in Bozeman don't need to rush so much.   

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The 00Z ECMWF and 06Z GFS showed a decent Memorial Day... but Saturday and Sunday are a lock now for cold and wet.   We might get one nice day... which is better than nothing I guess.    

The 00Z EPS and control run showed a much quieter pattern after Sunday like the ECMWF.    But it does not show any significant ridging either so its hard to tell if there will be any meaningful change in our day-to-day weather... or if we end up gloomy and damp like yesterday and now today.  This current period originally looked better last week but got messy with this weak warm front.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1653436800-1653436800-1654732800-10.gif

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0.01” this morning so far after a low of 52. 3 mild mornings in a row. 
 Euro keeps going back and forth with us being on the northern edge of the precip bulk through the end of the month. 

B757CD90-8F24-4924-9237-3170CCCC2995.jpeg

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It is pretty fascinating.    I don't think there is that big of a difference between 18 hours of daylight and 15.25 hours.   If that was the case then leaf out would move from north to south after the equinox.     And your sun angle is way higher so there is more sun energy in Bozeman than in Fairbanks.    Elevation only matters in terms of temps.  Although its been colder than normal in Bozeman... its still been warmer than Fairbanks.   I think it comes down to tree adaptability.   Their summer peaks in June up there so the trees have to leaf out very fast in order to survive.   I just never realized how fast it happens up there.   The trees in Bozeman don't need to rush so much.   

I don't think you are fully grasping the difference in sunlight up there. Fairbanks is up to 20 hours of daylight now. Any sort of sun angle difference is easily overcome because of that. Second, we see a lot more late season snow because of our elevation so the trees have adapted to leaf out later. Thirdly, our chlorophyll breakdown begins just as early as Fairbanks so it has nothing to do with trees needing the photosynthesis process to gain enough energy for the winter.

In the end, it all has to do with adaptability. There is a reason why deciduous trees are not very widespread here, it's a harsh climate for them.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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