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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


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10 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I bet some of those brackish inlets down there get pretty steamy. 

Yeah they do.  The beach house we would get a kid was at the mouth of a drainage for a very large tidal mud flat (Gould Inlet) and it was always very warm when the tide was going out. 

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6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I'm gonna sweat my balls off in SC.  totally lost my tolerance to humidity when we moved west 10 years ago.  Usually only go home at xmas Holidays or Fall.  this will be a test

At least dews aren’t *too* atrocious yet. Big difference between early June and early August. 🤒 

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

At least dews aren’t *too* atrocious yet. Big difference between early June and early August. 🤒 

Gosh, I was there in late June, 2013 for a wedding. Was playing golf one day and, despite riding in a cart, I was dripping in sweat by the third tee. And I'm not someone that sweats very easily.

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Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 78.3

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 13

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 6

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.9''

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

At least dews aren’t *too* atrocious yet. Big difference between early June and early August. 🤒 

I know, talked to parents in Columbia last night, it was in the upper 90s one day last week, looks like upper 80s when we get there.

 

Dad said, "its warm but the humidity hasn't kicked in yet".   lol

 

I was like pops "it's going to be hot as balls for us".  he laughed

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9 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Gosh, I was there in late June, 2013 for a wedding. Was playing golf one day and, despite riding in a cart, I was dripping in sweat by the third tee. And I'm not someone that sweats very easily.

Yeah it’s humid. But at least June won’t kill you, lol. Especially early in the month.

Also 2013 was a very humid summer out here, even without substantial heat. There was a stretch in July where we didn’t drop below 80°F at night for nearly a week.

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6 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Gosh, I was there in late June, 2013 for a wedding. Was playing golf one day and, despite riding in a cart, I was dripping in sweat by the third tee. And I'm not someone that sweats very easily.

oh and we're going to a wedding on Sunday in Holly Hill SC (halfway between Columbia and Charleston)  outside at 6 in the evening.  I'm already sweating thinking about it, but at least some good BBQ to eat.  lol

 

Then a Family reunion outside on Monday in the Columbia area (Lake Murray/Irmo). oof

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11 hours ago, Phil said:

70°F water is still cold af. 😂 I don’t do cold water well, ironically.

Water temp is ~ 75°F here and I could barely tolerate it in a kayak, let alone if I were to try and swim in it.

May 2, 2011, the date sticks in my mind because it was the date OBL got taken out.  I was doing a practice run on the Nooksack River in a canoe for the Ski to Sea race, and went in the water just down from Everson.  There was still LOTS of snow melt, and that water was COLD.  All I was wearing was a thin workout shirt and swim shorts (and of course a life jacket).  We were less than a mile from the put in but could not get back to it, so we had to go ahead and run the full 10 mile section we had planned for the evening.  That was a cold-a$$ed trip!  When we got to the car, my friend had a text from his wife that Bin Laden had been killed. 

I have no idea what the temp actually was, probably in the low 40's if I had to guess.  Yeah I was a dumba** for not being dressed for conditions...big lesson learned.

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  • Longtimer

This looks interesting.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_31.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

12z GFS is coming in fairly moist overall. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

May 2, 2011, the date sticks in my mind because it was the date OBL got taken out.  I was doing a practice run on the Nooksack River in a canoe for the Ski to Sea race, and went in the water just down from Everson.  There was still LOTS of snow melt, and that water was COLD.  All I was wearing was a thin workout shirt and swim shorts (and of course a life jacket).  We were less than a mile from the put in but could not get back to it, so we had to go ahead and run the full 10 mile section we had planned for the evening.  That was a cold-a$$ed trip!  When we got to the car, my friend had a text from his wife that Bin Laden had been killed. 

I have no idea what the temp actually was, probably in the low 40's if I had to guess.  Yeah I was a dumba** for not being dressed for conditions...big lesson learned.

Oh wow..yeah that’s hardcore stuff. I need to man up.

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  • Longtimer

Looks like SLE should end up with a -2 to -2.5F departure this month. Looking forward to June, some miraculous rainfall down in NORCAL. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_53.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Wow. Look at these blessing down in Southern Oregon. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_57.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Oh wow..yeah that’s hardcore stuff. I need to man up.

I got lucky, it was quite the shock to the system.  When I go kayaking on the sound, I always at least have a wet suit on.  I've only gone for a swim "on accident" once and I was in chest deep water.  When I do my beginning of season rescue practice and will be in the water a lot I wear a dry suit.

 

Ski to Sea race is this Sunday, and there will be a couple hundred kayakers out there with widely varying degrees of experience.  A lot will only be in a bathing suit, maybe an over shirt.  The water temp in Bellingham Bay is 53.8 today.  Luckily there will be a lot of rescue boats in the area

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16 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

May 2, 2011, the date sticks in my mind because it was the date OBL got taken out.  I was doing a practice run on the Nooksack River in a canoe for the Ski to Sea race, and went in the water just down from Everson.  There was still LOTS of snow melt, and that water was COLD.  All I was wearing was a thin workout shirt and swim shorts (and of course a life jacket).  We were less than a mile from the put in but could not get back to it, so we had to go ahead and run the full 10 mile section we had planned for the evening.  That was a cold-a$$ed trip!  When we got to the car, my friend had a text from his wife that Bin Laden had been killed. 

I have no idea what the temp actually was, probably in the low 40's if I had to guess.  Yeah I was a dumba** for not being dressed for conditions...big lesson learned.

hey i volunteered at the canoe section that year! I remember it being sort of a miserable day. 

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58 after a low of 49. Has been lightly raining for a few hours now but just enough to wet the ground nothing measurable. Feels muggy. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like Spokane's 70-less streak finally ends today.

SPC still has the Blue Mountains and Palouse in a Slight Risk today. Could be some damaging wind with the activity tonight.

its 66 now here at the house, haven't looked at GEG.  I think this is finally the day.

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  • Longtimer
Posted (edited)

Wow, SLE didn't hit 80 until July 1st in 1980. Average first 80 at SLE is May 10th. This is the first year since 2011 they will have their first 80 after May 10th. The past 10 years the latest first 80 was May 8, 2020. 

In 1917 they didn't hit 70 until May 27th. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow, SLE didn't hit 80 until July 1st in 1980. Average first 80 at SLE is May 10th. This is the first year since 2011 they will have their first 80 after May 10th. The past 10 years the latest first 80 was May 8, 2020. 

We had to wait until July here in 2010 2011 and 2012. Wouldn’t surprise me if it happens again this year. Already the latest in a decade right now. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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  • Longtimer
5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

RIP Ray Liotta.   🙁

I just watched a movie he was in on Tuesday.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We had to wait until July here in 2010 2011 and 2012. Wouldn’t surprise me if it happens again this year. Already the latest in a decade right now. 

You are fairly close to the water though right? What does your average high peak at?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

GFS Operational is a bit on the cold side of the ensemble mean. Looks like we could have juicy times ahead soon. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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10 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

hey i volunteered at the canoe section that year! I remember it being sort of a miserable day. 

Yeah I seem to remember that was the year the river was running really fast.  I think the flow levels that Saturday were at a point to cancel, but it dropped just barely enough overnight so that we could go.  If I remember correctly that was the year we almost got run over by a rescue boat that year at the same spot we almost went for a swim earlier in the month.  Not their fault, they had a couple of paddlers hanging off the side and trying to get them out of a rapid and to shore.  There is another section that is a big whirlpool (I have forgotten the names of the different sections) and there were a lot of rescues there as well.  We were almost one of them but made it through.  That was my last year on canoe, I switched to kayak the following year, and the bay was very wild.  I was taking waves to the chest/face for the first half before the winds started to settle down.

 

Fun race, I miss doing it.  I need to try to get on a team next year.

 

 

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  • Longtimer

Looks like the GEM and ICON want to turn wet towards next weekend TOO.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like the GEM and ICON want to turn wet towards next weekend TOO.

Some thunderstorms would be nice.

I really have no interest in seeing any more stratiform / non-convective precipitation until November though.

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Some thunderstorms would be nice.

I really have no interest in seeing any more stratiform / non-convective precipitation until November though.

Pretty good chance we see plenty of it in October. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Wait, there’s a preference war thread now. Oops.

Keep it there. lol. My statement was one of fact. 

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  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

B0C65C33-3263-44E5-B8BA-3C29877EE6F3.thumb.jpeg.b67b9e39dc0406617cfd42537e51f0f1.jpeg

Not sure what species these trees are, I can take some closer pics later. Seems like they’re finally starting to show some leaves, though. I thought they were dead, lol

The branch structure looks like American Sycamore or some hybrid London Plane. The one on the right seems to be affected by anthracnose fungus.

Native to Eastern North America, if my ID is correct. But hard to tell without a closer picture.

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Early June looks like our first substantial heatwave of the year, aside from April 7th’s one day spike into the mid 70s. Bound to happen at some point.

After all this rain and cooler weather it’s nice to see a warm airmass that not only will not be actively dangerous, but instead largely beneficial for the ecosystem. Warm days are great for bioproduction, given enough resources (read: water.)

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Sycamores are among the last to leaf out here, as well. Foliage is not fully mature on any of the sycamores around here (roughly 70-80%, a few running behind).

But I’ve never seen them bare like that in late May. So there’s a chance my ID is wrong.

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Early June looks like our first substantial heatwave of the year, aside from April 7th’s one day spike into the mid 70s. Bound to happen at some point.

After all this rain and cooler weather it’s nice to see a warm airmass that not only will not be actively dangerous, but instead largely beneficial for the ecosystem. Warm days are great for bioproduction, given enough resources (read: water.)

What meets the criteria of a substantial heatwave out there in early June?

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Just now, Phishy Wx said:

we have some what looks like locust trees down the street that are just now budding.  they usually come out late but never June

Does it have white flowers after the foliage emerges?

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  • Longtimer

I am pretty excited about this 12z EURO!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am pretty excited about this 12z EURO!

Very suppressed jet for June and better yet no sign of 4CH building anytime soon.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This run gives us about 2.3" by the end of the month and 1.5" the first 5 days of June. 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

5-6" here on that run.😍

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  • Storm 1
  • Rain 1

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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  • Longtimer

SLE is currently at 3.44" of rain in May. Seems pretty likely they will get to at least 4" this month, which would put them into the top 10. I could see them getting as high as 7th, probably not much higher. I believe April was their 7th wettest on record too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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