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Jesse doesn't like people having even reasonable expectations for a decent holiday.   Unless you want cold rain every day... you want everything to die.     😃

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The 12Z GEFS shows a pattern similar to yesterday on Memorial Day.     Anything close to yesterday would be really nice.  👍

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-3955200 (1).png

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Jesse doesn't like people having even reasonable expectations for a decent holiday.   Unless you want cold rain every day... you want everything to die.     😃

As I said earlier, we once had an outdoor Memorial Day BBQ under the gazebo during a strong thunderstorm..cloud to ground lightning zapping all around us and multiple downpours.

I’m sure you could manage a little drizzle. Have fun in the rain!

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Jesse doesn't like people having even reasonable expectations for a decent holiday.   Unless you want cold rain every day... you want everything to die.     😃

I'll be at a Music Festival at the Gorge this weekend, so I'm definitely rooting for nice weather. Couple days ago the GFS was showing a soaking rainstorm there Saturday but now keeps most of the rain South and West of there. Hopefully that holds.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

As I said earlier, we once had an outdoor Memorial Day BBQ under the gazebo during a strong thunderstorm..cloud to ground lightning zapping all around us and multiple downpours.

I’m sure you could manage a little drizzle. Have fun in the rain!

Trolling hard today.   If I had to bet right now... I would say it probably won't be raining on Memorial Day.     But if it is raining then it will be indoor activities.  

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8 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I'll be at a Music Festival at the Gorge this weekend, so I'm definitely rooting for nice weather. Couple days ago the GFS was showing a soaking rainstorm there Saturday but now keeps most of the rain South and West of there. Hopefully that holds.

Wind might be the big issue over there on Saturday.   ECMWF has been showing a west wind gusting to 40-45 mph which is common over there during troughy periods.      My son has an event in the Vantage area on Saturday so I have been watching it for him.

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Trolling hard today.   If I had to bet right now... I would say it probably won't be raining on Memorial Day.     But if it is raining then it will be indoor activities.  

I’m only half trolling. It was a good time. Getting buzzed while Zeus hurls lightning bolts at you is pretty d**n fun in my book. We all had a blast. :lol:

I think you should invest in an open air gazebo. Put a couple space heaters in there and you can have family dinners outdoors even when it’s cool and drizzling. It’d probably work even better for you since you don’t have insect swarms like we do.

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Just now, Phil said:

I’m only half trolling. It was a good time. Getting buzzed while Zeus hurls lightning bolts at you is pretty d**n fun in my book. We all had fun. :lol:

I think you should invest in an open air gazebo. Put a couple space heaters in there and you can have family dinners outdoors even when it’s cool and drizzling. It’d probably work even better for you since you don’t have bugs like we do.

Dude... we have plenty of nice days.   We don't need to force things when it's windy and wet.    

And summer thunderstorm days are a totally different thing.   It's warm and humid and storms are fun.   

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Our monthly max so far this month is 71 which we finally hit yesterday. First +70 day since 4/7 and only the 2nd this spring. Good chance that we don’t get above our high water mark of 73 this year until June.
 This spring is a lock for the coldest since 2011…and the wettest since 2017. Should pass 10” of rain since 3/1 easily by the end of the month. 
 Wettest May I’ve recorded is still very much on the table. Not a lock but we just need 0.77” to get there. Coldest May seems unlikely since 2011 was still quite a bit colder. Didn’t even hit 70 at all in the spring of 2011. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... that is crazy to see bare trees when it almost June.  

What's even crazier is that the trees are waaaay further along in Bend compared to Bozeman if you can imagine that.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Our big leaf maple on the side of our property (which is probably 40 years old and massive) has still not reached full leaf out.     It becomes a wall when its totally done... but I can still see through it.     I have never seen it take this long to reach its summer stage.     Not even close to this late in 2008 and 2011.   I doubt I ever see it go this late again.    This has to be about the longest it can possibly take.   

And I assume Meatyorologist was happy about the GFS because it showed lots of rain... and rain on most days.   Which of course the environment really does not need up here at this point.   But he likes what he likes.  

This is such a pointless dig.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Indeed.  Up here the winters have been way better than the 1999 through 2006 period.  The big flip here came with the winter of 2006-07.  I think your lack of freezing high temps has involved a certain amount of bad luck.  We have had quite a number here.

 Same with Portland. PDX recorded a 28 high in Dec 2013, a 23 high in Feb 2014, a 32 high in Jan 2016, multiple subfreezing highs in 2016/2017, 3 subfreezing highs last winter and a subfreezing high at downtown Portland this winter (not at PDX though). I hope the south valley can get some of those though.

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

This is such a pointless dig.

You have done a few of those yourself.  😃

But you do like rainy/stormy model runs... which is awesome and I recognize that is your preference.

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5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Early June troughing coming into focus 

4E0BB37C-C9A2-4DAF-BDFA-17FE524D2106.png

Love to see it.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

And we don't usually get to reliably dry and sunny up here until July.      Andrew is speaking for his area.  

Silver Creek Falls station averages 3.31" of precip in June. Snoqualmie Falls station averages 2.86" in June. Not sure why you act like it's always so dramatically colder/wetter throughout western WA.

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Already 62 in North Bend... clouds are not real thick or low.     Fairly pleasant out there before the c-zone forms this afternoon.  

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Silver Creek Falls station averages 3.31" of precip in June. Snoqualmie Falls station averages 2.86" in June. Not sure why you act like it's always so dramatically colder/wetter throughout western WA.

Pretty well established that Andrew's area does better in the early summer than up here in terms of more dry days and sunshine even if they still get a decent amount of rain.     The discussion was not about rain totals.    But we definitely don't get to reliable sunshine and dry days until July... and Andrew was saying it happens down there in June.   That makes sense.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Pretty well established that Andrew's area does better in the early summer than up here in terms of more dry days and sunshine even if they still get a decent amount of rain.     The discussion was not about rain totals.    But we definitely don't get to reliable sunshine and dry days until July... and Andrew was saying it happens down there in June.   That makes sense.

Maybe for your corner of the woods. But you constantly use "up here" in a broad sense, as if that's representative of all the millions of people in the Puget Sound region and not simply a reflection of the fact that you happen to live in an extreme outlier location that is a literal rain forest.

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10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Just heard that our last monkeypox outbreak was during summer 2003. Not a bad summer. Analog???

Different strain. No dice.

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5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Maybe for your corner of the woods. But you constantly use "up here" in a broad sense, as if that's representative of all the millions of people in the Puget Sound region and not simply a reflection of the fact that you happen to live in an extreme outlier location that is a literal rain forest.

Seattle does pretty well in terms of early summer sun... but my area is pretty much on par with the rest of the EPSL is that regard.   I could also say out here rather than up here... and do at times to distinguish the east side of Seattle from Seattle itself.

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Seattle does pretty well in terms of early summer sun... but my area is pretty much on par with the rest of the EPSL is that regard.   I could also say out here rather than up here... and do at times to distinguish the east side of Seattle from Seattle itself.

Well, there's definitely a strong positive correlation between average precip and average cloudcover %.

We don't have reliable cloudcover stats for somewhere like Kirkland or Bellevue, let alone the foothills above North Bend. But given that Cedar Lake is far wetter on average in June than Snoqualmie Falls, and Snoqualmie Falls is a fair amount wetter in June than the EPSL cities near I-405, I think it's fair to say that your area is also likely significantly cloudier on average in June than any of the major population centers in King County. Not just Seattle.

Edited by BLI snowman
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33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You have done a few of those yourself.  😃

But you do like rainy/stormy model runs... which is awesome and I recognize that is your preference.

That is fair.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

Well, there's definitely a strong positive correlation between average precip and average cloudcover %.

We don't have reliable cloudcover stats for somewhere like Kirkland or Bellevue, let alone the foothills above North Bend. But given that Cedar Lake is far wetter on average in June than Snoqualmie Falls, and Snoqualmie Falls is a fair amount wetter in June than the EPSL cities near I-405, I think it's fair to say that your area is also likely significantly cloudier on average in June than any of the major population centers in King County.

Its about the same as other areas east of 405.   And no... it does not always correlate that easily.    On many occasions we can get much more rain with a specific system but not significantly more rainy days.     SEA averages 9 days with rain in June and Snoqualmie Falls averages 12.    So there are usually 17 or 18 dry days in June out here... and 21 days at SEA.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

It’s like boxing with quicksand 

nearly pinned this

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Its about the same as other areas east of 405.   And no... it does not always correlate that easily.    On many occasions we can get much more rain with a specific system but not significantly more rainy days.     SEA averages 9 days with rain in June and Snoqualmie Falls averages 12.    So there are usually 17 or 18 dry days in June out here... and 21 days at SEA.

Your location is significantly wetter than Snoqualmie Falls, which is a good 500' lower and to the west removed from the orographic enhancement that being embedded in the Cascade foothills provides you. I would imagine you average 90"+ annually there. Snoqualmie Falls averages 59", which is closer to SEA than it is to you.

Deep dives!

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Your location is significantly wetter than Snoqualmie Falls, which is a good 500' lower and to the west removed from the orographic enhancement that being embedded in the Cascade foothills provides you. I would imagine you average 90"+ annually there. Snoqualmie Falls averages 59", which is closer to SEA than it is to you.

Deep dives!

Dude... I have lived here for 20 years.   I know exactly how it works.    

Snoqualmie Falls averages 18 dry days in June... and Cedar Lake (farther into the foothills and 500 feet higher than my area) averages 17 dry days in June.   A difference of one day.     You act like its dumping rain here every day and that is normal.    Its pretty silly.   😃

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Dude... I have lived here for 20 years.   I know exactly how it works.    

Snoqualmie Falls averages 18 dry days in June... and Cedar Lake (farther into the foothills and 500 feet higher than my area) averages 17 dry days in June.   A difference of one day.     You act like its dumping rain here every day and that is normal.    Its pretty silly.   😃

 

The Irony Ironic GIF - The Irony Irony Ironic GIFs

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

 

The Irony Ironic GIF - The Irony Irony Ironic GIFs

I know climo.

I think its fair to say that Andrew's area has more consistent sunshine and dry weather than we do in this area in early summer.      That was the original point... and it still stands.      👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Seattle does pretty well in terms of early summer sun... but my area is pretty much on par with the rest of the EPSL is that regard.   I could also say out here rather than up here... and do at times to distinguish the east side of Seattle from Seattle itself.

One thing to consider though is my perspective is built on a run of very warm June's. I have no memory of June 2020, but apparently it was fairly wet out here, according to the PRISM data it is the only June since 2012 that was above average for Precip, so again, my perspective is probably slightly skewed. Though once we get into this time of year most of the precip is pretty convective, and mainly focused in the afternoon/evening, mornings are often pretty sunny. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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