Jump to content

May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


The Blob

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

You can get even closer if you want. It is quite common for it to be dry in North Bend but raining at home. Source: I work in North Bend and have a rain gauge at home. Everyone in our neighborhood knows that dry in town does not mean dry at home.

That happens... but there are very few totally dry days in the valley that are wet up here.    It rains more up here when it rains.    But there are not significantly more rainy days.    That is just a climo fact.    

  • Weenie 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have noticed in the cold season TIm's location is generally colder/snowier than mine, but in the spring we are definitely colder and get more snow. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TT-SEA said:

That happens... but there are very few totally dry days in the valley that are wet up here.    It rains more up here when it rains.    But there are not significantly more rainy days.    That is just a climo fact.    

This makes sense. It's fairly similar here on that count. Last week there was a day SLE had 0.03" and we had 0.40". 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have noticed in the cold season TIm's location is generally colder/snowier than mine, but in the spring we are definitely colder and get more snow. 

We benefit from easterly flow up here in the winter... but your area gets way more snow with cold onshore flow than we do.

  • Weenie 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

I'll be at a Music Festival at the Gorge this weekend, so I'm definitely rooting for nice weather. Couple days ago the GFS was showing a soaking rainstorm there Saturday but now keeps most of the rain South and West of there. Hopefully that holds.

12Z ECMWF is also bringing the Saturday system farther south.     This is not only drier but also greatly reduces the wind on the east side of the Cascades.  

  • Weenie 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting looking at the PRISM data for summer precip in this area. Last time our area had over 1" of rain in August was in 2008. August 1969 is the wettest of all time and is an extreme outlier. 6.37" in 1968, 1978 is the 2nd wettest with 3.96". 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I know climo.

I think its fair to say that Andrew's area has more consistent sunshine and dry weather than we do in this area in early summer.      That was the original point... and it still stands.      👍

And assuming we're talking about your backyard, so does literally 99% of the non-coastal, populated section of the region.

Perspective!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

EURO seems to spread the rain out over the weekend a little more. 

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, BLI snowman said:

And assuming we're talking about your backyard, so does literally 99% of the non-coastal, populated section of the region.

Perspective!

Not at all.    Andrew's area is probably sunnier than all of the EPSL in early summer... thanks to latitude and geography (no c-zone clouds).

  • Weenie 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z ECMWF is actually quite sunny for the interior of western WA north of Olympia on Sunday afternoon with the system coming in to the south.

  • Weenie 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Not at all.    Andrew's area is probably sunnier than all of the EPSL in early summer... thanks to latitude and geography (no c-zone clouds).

Probably not. Considering he still gets 3-4 times more rain in June than any of the cities in the EPSL. Just a statistical fact.  You act like cloudy and dry is the default weather for all of King County in June and it simply is not. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z ECMWF does hold the low clouds in a little longer in the Seattle area on Monday compared to the 00Z run but it clears up in the afternoon.    The 500mb looks very similar to the 00Z run... so it just comes down to small details.     Overall... it looks pretty decent for the holiday weekend thanks to Oregon taking the storms on Saturday and Sunday.    Thanks guys.   👍

  • Weenie 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Obviously there is a large difference between sprinkling 0.02" for only 1 hour in Snoqualmie versus 0.5" over 7 hours along Rattlesnake Mountain, but I suspect "rainy days" by technical definition is all that matters to you. 

Also, FWIW, your "climo facts" schtick is annoying.

 

Climo facts are much better than just making sweeping comments about how its normally dumping rain here every day to troll like Justin is doing.   

There aren't many days when its beautiful and summery in North Bend while its dark and dumping rain here all day.     I am not sure I have ever seen that.    😃

  • Troll 1
  • Weenie 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Obviously there is a large difference between sprinkling 0.02" for only 1 hour in Snoqualmie versus 0.5" over 7 hours along Rattlesnake Mountain, but I suspect "rainy days" by technical definition is all that matters to you. 

Also, FWIW, your "climo facts" schtick is annoying.

 

Right, he acts like having a sprinkle at any point during a day automatically equates to day-long cloudcover, and seeing any amount of measurable precipitation being observed at a location automatically renders it a fair comparison to his. 

Edited by BLI snowman
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Probably not. Considering he still gets 3-4 times more rain in June than any of the cities in the EPSL. Just a statistical fact.  You act like cloudy and dry is the default weather for all of King County in June and it simply is not. 

Its not the default here either.   But Andrew's area gets more reliable sun in early summer.    The EPSL does not see consistent sunshine and dry weather normally until July.     

  • Weenie 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is also bringing the Saturday system farther south.     This is not only drier but also greatly reduces the wind on the east side of the Cascades.  

That's a big deal. We had 50 mph winds there during Bass Canyon last August and we had to evacuate the venue for several hours one of the nights. It was a sh*t show.

  • Like 1

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Right, he acts like having a sprinkle at any point during a day equates to day-long cloudcover, and seeing any amount of measurable precipitation being observed at a location automatically renders it a fair comparison to his. 

Days with rain is a measureable statistic... not subjective.     And it is measured.   

Cedar Lake normally has 17 days in June with no precipitation.   Snoqualmie Falls has 18 such days.     But when it is raining... it can rain much more up here.   There have been many days like that this month.     Its still raining and cloudy in the valley... but raining even harder up here.      The difference is not beautiful summer weather down there and dumping rain all day up here.   Its much, much more nuanced.

A beautiful dry day in North Bend is usually a beautiful dry day up here too.

  • Weenie 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

That's a big deal. We had 50 mph winds there during Bass Canyon last August and we had to evacuate the venue for several hours one of the nights. It was a sh*t show.

got pretty windy at Saturday night Phish last August too, but nothing like that.  did keep the wildfire smoke away though for most of the show.  The other 2 shows that weekend the weather was great, just a little hot during the day but nothing terrible if you made a little shade.

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

That's a big deal. We had 50 mph winds there during Bass Canyon last August and we had to evacuate the venue for several hours one of the nights. It was a sh*t show.

Probably even worse without a shirt on 

  • lol 1

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

That's a big deal. We had 50 mph winds there during Bass Canyon last August and we had to evacuate the venue for several hours one of the nights. It was a sh*t show.

Yeah... the wind is a much bigger problem than rain.  

  • Weenie 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Days with rain is a measureable statistic... not subjective.     And it is measured.   

Cedar Lake normally has 17 days in June with no precipitation.   Snoqualmie Falls has 18 such days.     But when it is raining... it can rain much more up here.   There have been many days like that this month.     Its still raining and cloudy in the valley... but raining even harder up here.      The difference is not beautiful summer weather down there and dumping rain all day up here.   Its much, much more nuanced.

A beautiful dry day in North Bend is usually a beautiful dry day up here too.

It is indeed much more nuanced. Cloudcover % corresponds heavily with precip totals. And like with your precip totals, your cloudcover % is similarly going to still be dramatically higher than the populated areas down at the valley floor. It rains harder and for longer. So maybe Fall City gets a few hundredths of an inch on a showery day where they still see 6 hours of sun. Meanwhile you saw 0.40" and got maybe 90 minutes of sun that day. Pretty common dynamic in the spring throughout the PNW. These things add up and make an obvious difference in perception. You like to broadbrush and try to paint a different picture, for whatever reason...

Edited by BLI snowman
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Days with rain is a measureable statistic... not subjective.     And it is measured.   

Cedar Lake normally has 17 days in June with no precipitation.   Snoqualmie Falls has 18 such days.     But when it is raining... it can rain much more up here.   There have been many days like that this month.     Its still raining and cloudy in the valley... but raining even harder up here.      The difference is not beautiful summer weather down there and dumping rain all day up here.   Its much, much more nuanced.

A beautiful dry day in North Bend is usually a beautiful dry day up here too.

What you’re describing is orographic lifting, which will increase both cloud cover and precipitation. See it along the Appalachians all the time.

Favored upslope areas are cloudier/wetter. Your location fits said description perfectly.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, BLI snowman said:

It is indeed much more nuanced. Cloudcover % corresponds heavily with precip totals. And like with your precip totals, your cloudcover % is similarly going to still be dramatically higher than the populated areas down at the valley floor. It rains harder and for longer. So maybe Falls City gets a few hundredths of an inch on a showery day where they still see 6 hours of sun. Meanwhile you saw 0.40" and got maybe 90 minutes of sun that day. Pretty common dynamic in the spring throughout the PNW. These things add up and make an obvious difference in perception. You like to broadbrush and try to paint a different picture, for whatever reason...

I have lived out there for 20 years.    I know how exactly it works.   I am in Issaquah every other day.   The EPSL does not see get consistent sunshine and dry weather until July in most years.   And Andrew's area and the entire WV seems to get to that point earlier.   And I agreed with him.   

There are many days with a c-zone signature in the clouds and King County is the cloudiest area except near the water.   And also numerous summer days when the marine layer is stuck over the Seattle and its sunny out here.    That happened many times last summer.     So it goes both ways.   But overall... its generally sunnier to the south and to the north of King County during spring and early summer troughing.    

  • Confused 2
  • Troll 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

What you’re describing is orographic lifting, which will increase both cloud cover and precipitation. See it along the Appalachians all the time.

Favored upslope areas are cloudier/wetter. Your location fits said description perfectly.

😃

OK... you are right.   There are 18 dry days in June in North Bend on average.   And 17 dry days at Cedar Lake at 1,500 feet and buried deeper into the foothills... but 0 dry days here.   Every day is the same.   Its always dumping rain and dark here.

Like I said... a beautiful dry summery day in North Bend/Snoqualmie is almost always a beautiful dry summery day here too.   And there are lots of them.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It is indeed much more nuanced. Cloudcover % corresponds heavily with precip totals. And like with your precip totals, your cloudcover % is similarly going to still be dramatically higher than the populated areas down at the valley floor. It rains harder and for longer. So maybe Fall City gets a few hundredths of an inch on a showery day where they still see 6 hours of sun. Meanwhile you saw 0.40" and got maybe 90 minutes of sun that day. Pretty common dynamic in the spring throughout the PNW. These things add up and make an obvious difference in perception. You like to broadbrush and try to paint a different picture, for whatever reason...

This. Upslope induced precip and cloud cover are always tightly correlated. Upslope favored areas on the westside of the apps can see 50% more precip than surrounding areas but over 200% more cloud cover on average.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The sun is sort of out here.    And its not raining.  Very pleasant day.    Exactly the same in North Bend.   😃

  • Downvote 1
  • Troll 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

😃

OK... you are right.   There are 18 dry days in June in North Bend on average.   And 17 dry days at Cedar Lake at 1,500 feet and buried deeper into the foothills... but 0 dry days here.   Every day is the same.   Its always dumping rain and dark here.

Like I said... a beautiful dry summery day in North Bend/Snoqualmie is almost always a beautiful dry summery day here too.   And there are lots of them.

Didn’t we come to the conclusion that cedar lake station was overexposed w/ unreliable data?

If it’s in the foothills in an upslope favored area it will not be drier than the NB valley station. That’s just simple physics. What happens when you lift a parcel of air?

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Didn’t we come to the conclusion that cedar lake station was overexposed w/ unreliable data?

If it’s in the foothills in an upslope favored area it will not be drier than the NB valley station. That’s just simple physics.

Its far wetter than NB.      Where did anyone say its drier?   😃

And yet only averages 1 more day with precip in June than NB.     

And that was Snoqualmie Falls back in the early 20th century.    Overexposed has nothing to do with rain measurements.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Phil said:

This. Upslope induced precip and cloud cover are always tightly correlated. Upslope favored areas on the westside of the apps can see 50% more precip than surrounding areas but over 200% more cloud cover on average.

I often observe this in the PDX metro area in NW flow patterns in spring. Oftentimes Gresham/Troutdale near the upslope are cloudy and Hillsboro/Beaverton on the leeward side of the coast range experience sunnier conditions. Troutdale isn't drastically rainier than west metro either AFAIK.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Probably even worse without a shirt on 

I try not to wear those from June through mid September.

  • scream 1
  • Sick 1

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

I try not to wear those from June through mid September.

Tim advises wearing clothing through early July most years. 

  • lol 3

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

Your summer is going to be about 4 weeks this year.  Mid July to Mid August > Snow

It's pretty crazy what the weather can do in Montana.  I can't remember if it was 2019 or 2020 (Kayla can probably confirm) but one of those years it literally snowed every month of the year (at least at pass level). 

  • Like 2
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its far wetter than NB.      Where did anyone says its drier?   😃

And yet only averages 1 more day with precip in June than NB.     

A high pressure setup and sunny day on the valley floor will usually be a sunny day in the foothills/upslope obviously. But the rainy days are of a very different nature. Compare my location to Andrew's. Not an uncommon occurrence in the spring that I might get something like 0.08" in Corvallis, while Andrew gets closer to half an inch. Both count as a precip day. But we would have very different weather experiences.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its far wetter than NB.      Where did anyone say its drier?   😃

And yet only averages 1 more day with precip in June than NB.     

And that was Snoqualmie Falls back in the early 20th century.    Overexposed has nothing to do with rain measurements.

# of dry days ≠ # of cloudy days. Plenty of days out in WV I’ve seen upslope clouds/fog hug those areas but produce no precip. And it can be 100% sunny a few miles down the ridge.

The # of days with cloud over will always be tightly correlated to the degree of orographic lifting, even more so than w/ precipitation. Fundamental atmospheric physics/chemistry.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...