May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[TT-SEA]

I am not denying orographic effects.    There is more rain and more cloud cover up here.    But there are many days when its basically the same as everywhere else.    And sometimes more sunny up here... thanks to the same geography when we become a downslope area thanks to the Cascades.    This is particularly true in the cold season.     

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I am not denying orographic effects.    There is more rain and more cloud cover up here.    But there are many days when its basically the same as everywhere else.    And sometimes more sunny up here... thanks to the geography when we become a downslope area thanks to the Cascades.    This is particularly true in the cold season.     

That’s all I was trying to get you to acknowledge.

I thought you were implying your location was just as sunny as valley locations which would be near impossible.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

# of dry days ≠ # of cloudy days. Plenty of days out in WV I’ve seen upslope clouds/fog hug those areas but produce no precip. And it can be 100% sunny a few miles down the ridge.

The # of days with cloud over will always be tightly correlated to the degree of orographic lifting, even more so than w/ precipitation. Fundamental atmospheric physics/chemistry.  

OMG... you are presenting abstract stuff like you will convince me the sun never shines here if you give me enough scientific jargon.   

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, up to 68 at SLE. Today could end up being our biggest + departure day of the month...

[Phil]

It’s cloudy and 75°F here today. Much more comfortable than yesterday’s sunny 93°F.  

Might not see the sun again until the weekend. I’ll take it!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

That’s all I was trying to get you to acknowledge.

I thought you were implying your location was just as sunny as valley locations which would be near impossible.

Of course.   But its not that different.   I am sure most people on the east side of the Seattle area will agree that we don't generally get consistent sun and dry weather until July.    We have plenty of beautiful days too.   But it takes awhile for it to become the default.  

[Deweydog]

I have personally experienced cloudy days without precipitation. I have also taken my shirt off for various reasons.

[TacomaWaWx]

Good god make this conversation stop please 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like SLE has had 33 days with precip since April 1st, 38 such days up here. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like SLE has had 33 days with precip since April 1st, 38 such days up here. 

As we have discussed previously... you are 1,500 feet higher than Salem and much farther away.   I am just 500 feet higher than North Bend and it's a couple miles away.    I can walk to the valley floor in a few minutes.   My wife does it every day on her run. 

 

[MV_snow]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Good god make this conversation stop please 

Lol. When I refreshed and saw 2 unread pages in 2 hours, I had hoped the models were showing some AMAZING convective outbreak late this week. Should have known it was all about preferences and North Bend microclimates.

[Omegaraptor]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Good god make this conversation stop please 

It’s been wet in North Bend. It’s also been cloudy in North Bend. It’s been both wet and cloudy in North Bend. Just thought I should let you know.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

Lol. When I refreshed and saw 2 unread pages in 2 hours, I had hoped the models were showing some AMAZING convective outbreak late this week. Should have known it was all about preferences and North Bend microclimates.

I made the mistake of agreeing with Andrew that his area usually gets to more consistent sun and dry weather sooner than most of King County.    Which is still true after all this debate.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

As we have discussed previously... you are 1,500 feet higher than Salem and much farther away.   I am just 500 feet higher than North Bend and it's a couple miles away.    I can walk to the valley floor in a few minutes.   My wife does it every day on her run. 

 

Okay... That was just factual information presented without comment. Silverton would be similar, about 8-9 miles away. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

There is no comparison between Andrew's location and Salem and my house and North Bend.     The difference is so much more significant for him.   

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

There is no comparison between Andrew's location and Salem and my house and North Bend.     The difference is so much more significant for him.   

 

I'm not even sure what you guys are arguing about. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm not even sure what you guys are arguing about. 

Me either!   

[TT-SEA]

EPS and control run show the next round of troughing in early June focused more south than previous runs.    A negatively tilted trough moving inland farther south is usually pretty decent in western WA.     There are many different flavors of western troughing... but this is generally nicer up here than a big trough parked over SW BC and WA with ridging in CA.

 

[Doinko]

35 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I often observe this in the PDX metro area in NW flow patterns in spring. Oftentimes Gresham/Troutdale near the upslope are cloudy and Hillsboro/Beaverton on the leeward side of the coast range experience sunnier conditions. Troutdale isn't drastically rainier than west metro either AFAIK.

I think it's slightly wetter according to this map. Looks like I'm in one of the driest areas in the Metro area in Bethany. PDX also is in a dry spot.

[BLI snowman]

 

45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have lived out there for 20 years.    I know how exactly it works.   I am in Issaquah every other day.   The EPSL does not see get consistent sunshine and dry weather until July in most years.   And Andrew's area and the entire WV seems to get to that point earlier.   And I agreed with him.   

There are many days with a c-zone signature in the clouds and King County is the cloudiest area except near the water.   And also numerous summer days when the marine layer is stuck over the Seattle and its sunny out here.    That happened many times last summer.     So it goes both ways.   But overall... its generally sunnier to the south and to the north of King County during spring and early summer troughing.    

 

Edited May 23, 2022 by BLI snowman

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

That is such an insane lie, it's almost unbelievable. I have to hand it to you, your ability to refuse to let someone have the last word is as impressive as it is irritating. I'll leave you alone again so you can deceive non-locals about our microclimates without interruption.  

 

Really?

My wife gets down to the service road on the valley floor on her run in about 10 minutes.   She has been doing this for almost 20 years now.   Takes about 3 times as long to get back up.    Would you like to come over so we can do it together? 

[TT-SEA]

Dark and pouring rain here...

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS and control run show the next round of troughing in early June focused more south than previous runs.    A negatively tilted trough moving inland farther south is usually pretty decent in western WA.     There are many different flavors of western troughing... but this is generally nicer up here than a big trough parked over SW BC and WA with ridging in CA.

 

Makes sense, as ridging over NE-Canada/Baffin Island teleconnects to a smaller 4CH/more troughing reaching the SW US, generally speaking.

You might be sharing the love with the CA/OR people instead of hogging it all for yourself.  

[bainbridgekid]

31 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s all I was trying to get you to acknowledge.

I thought you were implying your location was just as sunny as valley locations which would be near impossible.

He's also above the shallow marine layer a lot which does make up for a lot of the orographic lift when it comes to sunshine.

[BLI snowman]

40 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I often observe this in the PDX metro area in NW flow patterns in spring. Oftentimes Gresham/Troutdale near the upslope are cloudy and Hillsboro/Beaverton on the leeward side of the coast range experience sunnier conditions. Troutdale isn't drastically rainier than west metro either AFAIK.

Yeah, the Tualatin Valley tends to clear out noticeably faster than Clark County and Multnomah County (particularly east of I-205) during the spring/summer with onshore flow. Even on a normal marine layer day in the summer.

[BLI snowman]

41 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim advises wearing clothing through early July most years. 

Mattias is in Snohomish County, where it's generally warm/sunny in June while King County immediately to the south resembles Los Angeles in Blade Runner.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, the Tualatin Valley tends to clear out noticeably faster than Clark County and Multnomah County (particularly east of I-205) during the spring/summer with onshore flow. Even on a normal marine layer day in the summer.

I think Mark Nelsen has said that the west metro area is pretty bad for extreme amounts of snow as well. Not sure if that includes my area, as we do better than Hillsboro/Beaverton a lot of the time, but the west metro does seem to miss out on the snow a lot.

[Chewbacca Defense]

20 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

It’s been wet in North Bend. It’s also been cloudy in North Bend. It’s been both wet and cloudy in North Bend. Just thought I should let you know.

But has it been clear and dry?

 

And, what level of wetness are we talking about here?  And the cloudiness, what level of cloudiness?  Are we talking 38.58342% or 65.34234439788245%?

[The Swamp]

Quite pleasant in The Swamp this afternoon.

Wish it would rain more though.  D**n it!

[Doinko]

Just now, Doiinko said:

I think Mark Nelsen has said that the west metro area is pretty bad for extreme amounts of snow as well. Not sure if that includes my area, as we do better than Hillsboro/Beaverton a lot of the time, but the west metro does seem to miss out on the snow a lot.

Hillsboro did get more snow than PDX or Troutdale in Jan 1950 though, and Beaverton/Tualatin/North Plains did better in December 2008 than the PQR office.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

He's also above the shallow marine layer a lot which does make up for a lot of the orographic lift when it comes to sunshine.

I can see how his location would be sunnier under downsloping offshore flow. I think that’s why he likes that +TNH/Plains troughing pattern (which is the pattern I hate most..lol).

But that pattern can disappear for years on end. The last decade has had an unprecedented run of +TNH almost every summer due to warm pool forcing. This is the first summer since 2012 that isn’t leaning that way. 

[MossMan]

Wow over 100 new posts since the last time I checked in just a bit ago! Is there an arctic blast coming this weekend? 

[bainbridgekid]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I can see how his location would be sunnier under downsloping offshore flow. I think that’s why he likes that +TNH/Plains troughing pattern (which is the pattern I hate most..lol).

But that pattern can disappear for years on end. The last decade has had an unprecedented run of +TNH almost every summer due to warm pool forcing. This is the first summer since 2012 that isn’t leaning that way. 

That actually isn't the pattern that ends up sunnier by him in the Summer. With downslope offshore flow it tends to be sunny everywhere around here outside the immediate coastline. It's the weak nightly push of onshore marine influence that is often strong enough to leave the Seattle area shrouded in low clouds till at least Noon but too weak to penetrate the foothills and reach him at 1,000 feet that makes a big difference.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I can see how his location would be sunnier under downsloping offshore flow. I think that’s why he likes that +TNH/Plains troughing pattern (which is the pattern I hate most..lol).

But that pattern can disappear for years on end. The last decade has had an unprecedented run of +TNH almost every summer due to warm pool forcing. This is the first summer since 2012 that isn’t leaning that way. 

Years on end?    A cold season fog layer over the Seattle area while its crystal clear up here?     Happens all the time.    All we need is a light easterly flow through the pass.    

[TT-SEA]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

That actually isn't the pattern that ends up sunnier by him in the Summer. With downslope offshore flow it tends to be sunny everywhere around here outside the immediate coastline. It's the weak nightly push of onshore marine influence that is often strong enough to leave the Seattle area shrouded in low clouds till at least Noon but too weak to penetrate the foothills and reach him at 1,000 feet that makes a big difference.

That felt like the default last July and August.    Weak onshore flow in the summer is often sunnier up here than in Seattle... particularly in the mornings through early afternoon and then its sunny everywhere.

[Phil]

QBO is officially in the westerly descending phase.

Barring any disruptions, this is literally perfect timing to maximize the -ENSO NPAC high connection next winter.

Don’t want to jinx it, but the precursors to a cold western winter are all present.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

Quite pleasant in The Swamp this afternoon.

Wish it would rain more though.  D**n it!

Beautiful day here too.    Waiting for signs of the c-zone forming.  

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wow over 100 new posts since the last time I checked in just a bit ago! Is there an arctic blast coming this weekend? 

It's Coming

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think Tim s wife can do it. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That felt like the default last July and August.    Weak onshore flow in the summer is often sunnier up here than in Seattle... particularly in the mornings through early afternoon and then its sunny everywhere.

So both onshore and offshore flow patterns are sunnier up there than in Seattle?