May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[Doiinko]

3 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Yes, Jan 3-4 2017, Medford had 8" that night. Same one on my signature. It snowed 26 hours in a row (no breaks) east of the cascades. It's actually hard to do 24 hour long snows anywhere in the northwest without some kind of break in the middle. 

Portland's storm was a week after southern Oregon's. The barrage of storms throughout that winter was what made 16-17 really solid. 

PRISM data shows my area having an average temp of 36.9 degrees that winter, so consistently chilly here. 18 inches of snow total, with 13 of that falling in one night. Definitely my favorite winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS shows showers lingering Monday and next weekend looks very damp.

[Kayla]

Very wet and chilly morning here. Just the beginning of a very wet and raw three day holiday weekend.

Currently 46F and 0.16" on the day so far.

[Mr Marine Layer]

So where will this year's meteorological spring rank in the list of coldest springs?

[Omegaraptor]

As Andrew would say, SATANIC rain in Kelso.

[Kayla]

This is just so good to see for the entire NW region as we head into the first week of June.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

0.03” so far this morning. 

[snow_wizard]

OK...I can officially say this pattern royally sucks.  Still not more than a rogue nice day here and there anywhere in sight.

[snow_wizard]

23 minutes ago, Kayla said:

This is just so good to see for the entire NW region as we head into the first week of June.

 

People really have a twisted sense of what's nice.  Our small window for nice weather up here is shrinking by the day now.  I guess it's fine if you don't like to do things that require dry weather.

When I was hoping for a cold year this is not what I was envisioning.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

People really have a twisted sense of what's nice.  Our small window for nice weather up here is shrinking by the day now.  I guess it's fine if you don't like to do things that require dry weather.

When I was hoping for a cold year this is not what I was envisioning.

Some people like it, can definitely  understand those who want it the other way though. It’ll come soon enough I’d bet July-September will be pretty nice. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

According to the PRISM data we hit 107 last June, which makes sense given the park hit 108. 

For comparison this is where we topped out during other big heatwaves:

August 2017: 96

July 2009: 98

July 2006: 99

June 2006: 97

June 1992: 96

September 1988: 96

August 1981: 96

[SilverFallsAndrew]

44 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

So where will this year's meteorological spring rank in the list of coldest springs?

Probably not that high because March was slightly above normal most places. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

People really have a twisted sense of what's nice.  Our small window for nice weather up here is shrinking by the day now.  I guess it's fine if you don't like to do things that require dry weather.

When I was hoping for a cold year this is not what I was envisioning.

Yeah, it's not shaping up like 1985. But we can have extended nice weather in September and well into October. 2011 had a pretty pleasant September and October. 2012 was gorgeous in September and early October. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dang... Sun is out now and the temp is up to 59. 

We'll likely end the month with a an average max around 6-7F below normal, but an average min slightly above normal. So probably around a -3F departure give or take 0.5. 

Edited May 28 by SilverFallsAndrew

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Some people like it, can definitely  understand those who want it the other way though. It’ll come soon enough I’d bet July-September will be pretty nice. 

The one thing that makes this climate bearable for me is what we usually have in the mid May through October period.  Still time for it deliver I guess.  The two things I hate the most are lack of cold / snow in the winter and gloom in the spring (in the years where that happens).

Historically speaking very wet periods often lead to very cold periods so that could be on the table at least.

[Omegaraptor]

34 minutes ago, Kayla said:

This is just so good to see for the entire NW region as we head into the first week of June.

 

Good to see CA still managing rain as well as the eastside. But we really do not need any more rain in the Willamette Valley. Like adding more water to a sopping wet sponge.

[Doiinko]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

According to the PRISM data we hit 107 last June, which makes sense given the park hit 108. 

For comparison this is where we topped out during other big heatwaves:

August 2017: 96

July 2009: 98

July 2006: 99

June 2006: 97

June 1992: 96

September 1988: 96

August 1981: 96

The gap between the June 2021 heatwave and anything before it is crazy.

[Doiinko]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The one thing that makes this climate bearable for me is what we usually have in the mid May through October period.  Still time for it deliver I guess.  The two things I hate the most are lack of cold / snow in the winter and gloom in the spring (in the years where that happens).

Historically speaking very wet periods often lead to very cold periods so that could be on the table at least.

Let us in Oregon have some of the cold and snow next winter!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Good to see CA still managing rain as well as the eastside. But we really do not need any more rain in the Willamette Valley. Like adding more water to a sopping wet sponge.

Unfortunately that's not quite true, Eugene is still in moderate drought. Still a bit to go if we're gonna get the upper part of the river in shape. It's better but we need no drought to hopefully keep the fires at bay this year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We should break our all time May rainfall record this weekend, but we will also likely end May with 11 days with no precip. It hasn't been THAT bad, especially the 2nd half of the month. 

[Omegaraptor]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Wrong, Eugene is still in moderate drought.

The drought monitor isn’t always accurate. Soil moisture is above average on the west side from Roseburg area north. And snowpack is of course well above average.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We should break our all time May rainfall record this weekend, but we will also likely end May with 11 days with no precip. It hasn't been THAT bad, especially the 2nd half of the month. 

11 days sounds wonderful!   

North Bend is going to end up with measurable rain on 54 out of 61 days in April and May.    The normal number of days with measurable rain in that period is 32.       So yeah... its been about as bad as it gets out here in terms of persistent rain.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

11 days sounds wonderful!   

North Bend is going to end up with measurable rain on 54 out of 61 days in April and May.    The normal number of days with measurable rain in that period is 32.       So yeah... its been about as bad as it gets out here in terms of persistent rain.   

Yet we have had more rain relative to average at least. Should end up with about 21-22" combined for April/May. 

[TT-SEA]

28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

People really have a twisted sense of what's nice.  Our small window for nice weather up here is shrinking by the day now. 

Good news is that very persistent rain from April - June is almost always rewarded with a spectacular July - September period in our area.     And the opposite is true as well.    So I am quite confident that we will end up liking this summer into at least early fall.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking ahead to June. On the PRISM data our wettest June was 1947 with 8.68" driest June was 1951 with only 0.02" of rain. 

Warmest June: 2021 (63.) #2 1918 (62.9)

Coldest June: 1953 (51.8)

June 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 were all very chilly. 2012 was the last chilly June we have had though... 

[TT-SEA]

Weak offshore in charge out here this morning... as the storm wraps up off the NW OR coast.   The offshore flow is eating away at the clouds and precip as it moves north leaving us dry with some filtered sun.   

[Kayla]

30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

People really have a twisted sense of what's nice.  Our small window for nice weather up here is shrinking by the day now.  I guess it's fine if you don't like to do things that require dry weather.

When I was hoping for a cold year this is not what I was envisioning.

I'm sure we'll still have plenty of nice weather later in June into July and August. Will just be nice to not be choking on smoke this early summer after the last two years of fires up and down the West.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

8 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

The drought monitor isn’t always accurate. Soil moisture is above average on the west side from Roseburg area north. And snowpack is of course well above average.

Maybe down towards the airport. Upriver still needs more.

Even still. We're so much better-off than the last several years that it's not gonna be a bad fire year.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking ahead to June. On the PRISM data our wettest June was 1947 with 8.68" driest June was 1951 with only 0.02" of rain. 

Warmest June: 2021 (63.) #2 1918 (62.9)

Coldest June: 1953 (51.8)

June 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 were all very chilly. 2012 was the last chilly June we have had though... 

 I have said this before... 1951 was just a truly spectacular summer here.  Large diurnal spreads indicate lots of clear skies but there was no extreme heat and there was only 6 days with rain in the entire JJA period in my area.   And the beautiful weather continued all the way until late September.     That was one of the nicest summers I can find in our historical record.    And it happened during the infamous 1950s!  

[Kayla]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good news is that very persistent rain from April - June is almost always rewarded with a spectacular July - September period in our area.     And the opposite is true as well.    So I am quite confident that we will end up liking this summer into at least early fall.  

Summer hasn't even begun yet and people are already acting like it's over. Most signs point to a dry July-Sept and I'm sure this Spring from hell (for some) will be long forgotten by mid July. 

[Mr Marine Layer]

6 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I'm sure we'll still have plenty of nice weather later in June into July and August. Will just be nice to not be choking on smoke this early summer after the last two years of fires up and down the West.

Smoke could still come up from the south. 

[Mr Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Summer hasn't even begun yet and people are already acting like it's over. Most signs point to a dry July-Sept and I'm sure this Spring from hell (for some) will be long forgotten by mid July. 

Not if it's another year like 1964.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 I have said this before... 1951 was just a truly spectacular summer here.  Large diurnal spreads indicate lots of clear skies but there was no extreme heat and there was only 6 days with rain in the entire JJA period in my area.   And the beautiful weather continued all the way until late September.     That was one of the nicest summers I can find in our historical record.    And it happened during the infamous 1950s!  

The 1950s were totally awesome in many ways.  Many variations of cold (many of which included a lot sunshine).  After the incredible 1951 summer that winter had a lot of cold weather.

[Mr Marine Layer]

It's not officially summer until the 4 Corners High develops.

[Kayla]

9 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Smoke could still come up from the south. 

I know you have taken up the devils advocate roll on here but it takes a pretty unique pattern to see smoke from the SW into the PNW and even then it would be short lived.

[Mr Marine Layer]

DareDuck never posts anything, but always gives troll reactions.

[BLI snowman]

13 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Summer hasn't even begun yet and people are already acting like it's over. Most signs point to a dry July-Sept and I'm sure this Spring from hell (for some) will be long forgotten by mid July. 

It's a testament to how accustomed folks have become around here to blazing sunshine throughout the entirety of May and acting like that's the norm.

It's obviously been wetter and cloudier than usual... But May historically is just not a summer weather month. And neither is the first half of June. Grouping them with July and August just doesn't have a climo basis. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It's a testament to how accustomed folks have become around here to blazing sunshine throughout the entirety of May and acting like that's the norm.

It's obviously been wetter and cloudier than usual... But May historically is just not a summer weather month. And neither is the first half of June. Grouping them with July and August just doesn't have a climo basis. 

This is a complete exaggeration the other way.    I don't think anyone expects blazing sunshine through all of May.    7 of our 10 wettest Mays in Seattle have happened since 2000.   You are pretending every May for the last 20 years has been nothing but blazing sunshine and now we are finally having a typical May.    Its stupid.   The last 2 months have been quite unusual in terms of cold and persistent rain.   That is just a climo fact.     Even May in years like 1955, 1983, and 1993 had periods of sunny, warm weather.    Its very common.   No such luck this year... hence the negative perceptions.  

[Doiinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

This is a complete exaggeration the other way.    I don't think anyone expects blazing sunshine through all of May.    7 of our 10 wettest Mays in Seattle have happened since 2000.   You are pretending every May for the last 20 years has been nothing but blazing sunshine and now we are finally having a typical May.    Its stupid.   The last 2 months have been quite unusual in terms of cold and persistent rain.   That is just a climo fact.     Even May in years like 1955, 1983, and 1993 had periods of sunny, warm weather.    Its very common.   No such luck this year... hence the negative perceptions.  

Down here in Portland this was our first wet May since 2013, so I think we were due here. In Seattle though it probably is different. In Portland we had a good number of dry days in the second half of the month, but I don't think you guys had as many up North.

[BLI snowman]

And as much as I like to point out that we were simply dew for a wet/cool spring, we are probably equally dew for a dry and ridgy September/October. 

The last really dry September under 1" of precip for PDX was 2014. We've had some warm Septembers since but none of them were wall to wall summer like as they sometimes can be.

2015 was the last time we had a really warm October. 2020 did have a ridgier September and October but September did still end up wet somehow and then the October warmth really wasn't too crazy at all. 

Makes sense that this year will probably go in that direction.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

Down here in Portland this was our first wet May since 2013, so I think we were due here. In Seattle though it probably is different. In Portland we had a good number of dry days in the second half of the month, but I don't think you guys had as many up North.

Its been more reasonable for the last 7-10 days overall... but we are still missing that very common 4-6 day sunny stretch which happens almost every year in May. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

And as much as I like to point out that we were simply dew for a wet/cool spring, we are probably equally dew for a dry and ridgy September/October. 

The last really dry September under 1" of precip for PDX was 2014. We've had some warm Septembers since but none of them were wall to wall summer like as they sometimes can be.

2015 was the last time we had a really warm October. 2020 did have a ridgier September and October but September did still end up wet somehow and then the October warmth really wasn't too crazy at all. 

Makes sense that this year will probably go in that direction.

Fall of 2012 is calling... I could see persistent ridging like we had that year. Not sure the dam breaks in mid-October as it did that year though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I should also point out June 1952 and 1954 were very wet (And 1953 was about average, but the coldest June in the modern era), so it's not like the 50s were full of spectacular June's. 

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is a complete exaggeration the other way.    I don't think anyone expects blazing sunshine through all of May.    7 of our 10 wettest Mays in Seattle have happened since 2000.   You are pretending every May for the last 20 years has been nothing but blazing sunshine and now we are finally having a typical May.    Its stupid.   The last 2 months have been quite unusual in terms of cold and persistent rain.   That is just a climo fact.     Even May in years like 1955, 1983, and 1993 had periods of sunny, warm weather.    Its very common.   No such luck this year... hence the negative perceptions.  

Plenty of really wet and overwhelmingly cloudy or cool Mays around here historically, Tim. Look at Mays like 2011, 2010, 2005, 1998,  1996, 1991, 1984, 1978, 1977, 1974, 1968, 1964, 1962, 1960, 1953. Some of those years maybe had a couple of token warmer days thrown in but in the grand scheme of things the default weather was virtually the same as what it has been this year. It's a pretty common way that May can go in the PNW.

On the flip side.... 2021, 2018, and 2015 all unquestionably had historically dry and sunny stretches in mid to late spring recently and seemed to have skewed some expectations. It is what it is.

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fall of 2012 is calling... I could see persistent ridging like we had that year. Not sure the dam breaks in mid-October as it did that year though. 

I think we'll see an unusual ridgy stretch at least into October.

Also feeling a significant November cold spell this year. Feels like we are ready.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Plenty of really wet and overwhelmingly cloudy or cool Mays around here historically, Tim. Look at Mays like 2011, 2010, 2005, 1998,  1996, 1991, 1984, 1978, 1977, 1974, 1968, 1964, 1962, 1960, 1953. Some of those years maybe had a couple of token warmer days thrown in but in the grand scheme of things the default weather was virtually the same as what it has been this year. It's a pretty common way that May can go in the PNW.

On the flip side.... 2021, 2018, and 2015 all unquestionably had historically dry and sunny stretches in mid to late spring recently and seemed to have skewed some expectations. It is what it is.

Down here at least I remember 2011 being cloudier than this spring though April and May were not quite as wet. But even when it wasn't raining we had strong onshore flow and clouds. Also that March was a lot wetter and cloudier than this one. 

As chilly as this spring has been, it isn't even close to 2011 either. That spring featured our 2nd coldest April on record and coldest May by a wide margin. 

Edited May 28 by SilverFallsAndrew

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Plenty of really wet and overwhelmingly cloudy or cool Mays around here historically, Tim. Look at Mays like 2011, 2010, 2005, 1998,  1996, 1991, 1984, 1978, 1977, 1974, 1968, 1964, 1962, 1960, 1953. Some of those years maybe had a couple of token warmer days thrown in but in the grand scheme of things the default weather was virtually the same as what it has been this year. It's a pretty common way that May can go in the PNW.

On the flip side.... 2021, 2018, and 2015 all unquestionably had historically dry and sunny stretches in mid to late spring recently and seemed to have skewed some expectations. It is what it is.

In recent memory from your list in 2010 and 2011 in the Snoqualmie Valley... there was a 10-day stretch with no rain in May 2010 and 14 totally dry days in May 2011.      We are aiming for 4 or 5 dry days this month.    Those nice stretches are often buried in cold/wet stats for the month overall but make a big difference in terms of perception.     Even in 1964 we managed 81 degrees on Memorial Day and 87 degrees the next day.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

In recent memory from your list in 2010 and 2011 in the Snoqualmie Valley... there was a 10-day stretch with no rain in May 2010 and 14 totally dry days in May 2011.      We are aiming for 4 or 5 dry days this month.    Those nice stretches are often buried in cold/wet stats for the month overall but make a big difference in terms of perception.     Even in 1964 we managed 81 degrees on Memorial Day.   

Where’d you guyz end up going to escape nature’s wrath?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the PRISM data this April was the 7th coldest here since 1895 and 5th wettest. 

[TT-SEA]

Pretty nice pattern being shown on the 12Z ECMWF from Tuesday - Saturday.    It looks warm and increasingly humid with multiple chances for convection but with plenty of sun mixed in as well.