May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[Omegaraptor]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

Could very well be. That MJO wave entering the IO/Indo domain in late June/early July..

Good thing I'll be in Sunriver!

[snow drift]

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

Could very well be. That MJO wave entering the IO/Indo domain in late June/early July..

I'm not surprised. This seems like an after the 4th of July type summer.

[Phil]

31 minutes ago, snow drift said:

I'm not surprised. This seems like an after the 4th of July type summer.

Filtered analogs begin to tilt warm in August, and even more-so in September which looks downright hot.

Of course it’s never a sure thing as these outcomes can be state dependent, but it’s an evolution that makes dynamical sense to me, and has statistical backing.

[TT-SEA]

@bainbridgekid posted this on FB.    I cropped his name.   And I agree with his sentiment.   54 out of 61 days with rain and consistent cold weather has been pretty depressing to me as well.   Can't wait to hit our summer stride for a couple months.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

@bainbridgekid posted this on FB.    I cropped his name.   And I agree with his sentiment.   54 out of 61 days with rain and consistent cold weather has been pretty depressing to me as well.   Can't wait to hit our summer stride for a couple months.

Weenie post of the day. Congrats  

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Weenie post of the day. Congrats  

I have SAD so I can empathize with that.

But rain every day with sun breaks in between (which is what Tim has been describing) isn’t bad at all. If you want Phoenix weather, move to Phoenix.

[TacomaWaWx]

Oh boy here we go 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

71/43 today. But it doesn’t count apparently.

[TacomaWaWx]

Euro through hour 120 vs this afternoon. Still pretty decent for this time of year. 

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

I have SAD so I can empathize with that.

But rain every day with sun breaks in between (which is what Tim has been describing) isn’t bad at all. If you want Phoenix weather, move to Phoenix.

It's been unusually rainy... it is very rare even here to have 54 out of 61 days with rain in April and May.   Its a pretty small subset of years that are this persistently rainy.  And almost every day was colder then normal.  Don't need to move to Phoenix... this won't happen very often.    

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

It's been unusually rainy... it is very rare even here to have 54 out of 61 days with rain in April and May.   Its a pretty small subset of years that are this persistently rainy.   Don't need to move to Phoenix... this won't happen very often.   

You also live downstream from the largest ocean on the planet, in the foothills on the upslope side of the Cascade mountain range, at 50N latitude.

It’s going to rain there. A lot.

[TacomaWaWx]

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

You also live downstream from the largest ocean on the planet, in the foothills on the upslope side of the Cascade mountain range, at 50N latitude.

It’s going to rain there. A lot.

OMG.    Same old argument.    I am comparing to our climo... not Phoenix.   

And not that it matters... but its 47N here.  

If we had a normal number of rainy days we would have had 32 or 33 days with rain in April and May.   Another 21 totally dry days would have been perfectly climo.   And greatly appreciated.    But extremes happen.  

I think a few people on here bristle at the idea that this type of spring is not normal and they shouldn't get too used to it.  

[MossMan]

Perfect evening to start phase 1 of putting in an RV pad for the In-Laws to come and stay all summer in their travel trailer. Trench for water and power. Finished up just past dark. Reminded me of the good old days of being on the golf course at 4am working via headlights! Just need to get the items in the ditch and covered up before the rains come back. 

Edited June 1 by MossMan

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

Perfect evening to start phase 1 of putting in an RV pad for the In-Laws to come and stay all summer in their travel trailer. Ditch for water and power. Finished up just past dark. Reminded me of the good old days of being on the golf course at 4am working via headlights! Just need to get the items in the ditch and covered up before the rains come back. 

Wow!    That is impressive.   

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF looks fairly wet for the weekend... but a good part of Saturday might be dry and it shows mid 60s (upper 60s if you account for its cool bias) with the rain on Sunday with a decent amount of sun in the afternoon and dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s.   Far better than temps in the low 50s with light rain that we had this past Sunday.   

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF also seems to be trending warmer for next week over the last couple of runs.  

[TT-SEA]

Anywhooo... t-minus 10 minutes to the end of this crappy spring.   For better or worse... its over!   

[Phil]

ROAR.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

ROAR.

Best case scenario... get to well above normal rainfall for the month with a couple very wet systems.    There are several very nice days on this run before we get to that system 9-10 days out.  

[snow_wizard]

59 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

@bainbridgekid posted this on FB.    I cropped his name.   And I agree with his sentiment.   54 out of 61 days with rain and consistent cold weather has been pretty depressing to me as well.   Can't wait to hit our summer stride for a couple months.

Is it really inevitable it will get better?  I suppose it almost has to, but I'm not sure it will get any better in relation to normal.  Some people don't get it that some us really count on our normally great summers to offset the months of gloom that happen in other parts of the year.

I'm not at all upset about the lack of warmth, but the inability for it to really dry out sucks.  As I've said I have never seen it so wet in Central WA as this year, and I've been going over there regularly since the early 80s.

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Is it really inevitable it will get better?  I suppose it almost has to, but I'm not sure it will get any better in relation to normal.  Some people don't get it that some us really count on our normally great summers to offset the months of gloom that happen in other parts of the year.

I'm not at all upset about the lack of warmth, but the inability for it to really dry out sucks.  As I've said I have never seen it so wet in Central WA as this year, and I've been going over there regularly since the early 80s.

We don't do dry and cold in the summer very well... ever.    In the warm season, cold usually means wet.

And it very likely will get significantly better at least in July-September period.    It would not surprise me if we have only a handful of days in that period with rain.   The opposite of a year like 2019 when there was frequent rain through the July-September time-frame.  Maybe it ends up a little cooler than normal in those months as well.  

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

I have SAD so I can empathize with that.

But rain every day with sun breaks in between (which is what Tim has been describing) isn’t bad at all. If you want Phoenix weather, move to Phoenix.

There is a higher suicide rate here in Denver than Seattle, with our 300 days of sunshine.

My guess is the desert won't cure you, either.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

There is a higher suicide rate here in Denver than Seattle, with our 300 days of sunshine.

My guess is the desert won't cure you, either.

SAD does not mean suicide.    It just means feeling down.    And the issue in Denver might be the elevation.    I remember reading that higher altitudes can cause issues.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

53F and pleasant smoke on the porch. Hope y'all are doing good!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended May, and meteorological spring with a partly to mostly sunny 76/47 spread. Warmest day year to date and first 75+ high.

There were some cool looking convective clouds over the Cascades later in the day.

[Phishy Wx]

been in the land of Humidity since last Friday (South Carolina).  Hasn't been too terrible although not comfortable.  I grew up here so I've lost my tolerance to high humidity.  not as bad as it would've been in July or August.  some days worse than others. temps have ranged from the mid 80s to mid 90s for highs and lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.  Ready to get back to WA though.

[yellowstone]

On 5/21/2022 at 10:07 PM, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Looks like we will end May with barely above average rainfall and <10% above average for the year. You would think we have a huge surplus based on some commenters here. 

Now that we're actually at the end of May - PDX ended with "barely" 50.6% above average rainfall for the month and sits at 14.9% above average for the water year and 12.5% for the calendar year.  Perhaps not a "huge" surplus I'll grant you but hardly the doom and gloom drought based on...other commenters here.  Basically if you average the rhetoric here, you'll end up somewhere around the truth.  In no way a dry period, but not crazy wet either.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

Now that we're actually at the end of May - PDX ended with "barely" 50.6% above average rainfall for the month and sits at 14.9% above average for the water year and 12.5% for the calendar year.  Perhaps not a "huge" surplus I'll grant you but hardly the doom and gloom drought based on...other commenters here.  Basically if you average the rhetoric here, you'll end up somewhere around the truth.  In no way a dry period, but not crazy wet either.

If we are talking about PDX... it was pretty crazy wet.

The April/May period ended up the 3rd wettest in history there.    And just .49 away from beating out 1996 for the wettest April/May period ever.  

Side note... 1996 turned quite dry at the end of May.   There was .44 in June, .73 in July, and .25 in August at PDX that year which totals 1.42 inches compared to the long-term average of 2.87 inches for JJA.    So about 50% of average for the next 3 months after setting the record for wettest April/May.

[Kayla]

Ended up with 6.86" on the month here. Bozeman MSU is up to 16.83" on the water year (since Oct 1st) which is, up to this point, 5th wettest water year on record. Enough to erase the drought completely in this part of Montana at least.

They also ended up with 119.1" of snowfall which was good enough for 6th snowiest winter on record. Average is 90.1" I ended up with 160". I'm sure now that I've announced season ending snowfall amounts we'll get hit by a mid June snowstorm!

[yellowstone]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

If we are talking about PDX... it was pretty crazy wet.

The April/May period ended up the 3rd wettest in history there.    And just .49 away from beating out 1996 for the wettest April/May period ever.  

Side note... 1996 turned quite dry at the end of May.   There was .44 in June, .73 in July, and .25 in August at PDX that year which totals 1.42 inches compared to the long-term average of 2.87 inches for JJA.    So about 50% of average for the next 3 months after setting the record for wettest April/May.

I would tend to agree with you on the April/May period though I was trying to not to incite a riot by saying so.  That said, I was referring more to the water year/YTD in my characterization. 

[NWbyNW]

The forecast said it would hit 71F today, it did not.  It hit 63F but was noticeably muggy.  Overcast all day, no clear sunshine.  It started to sprinkle which became some random stray showers.  It is now cool, 57F. The sky was pretty much formless today except for defined clouds towards the mountains.

Rather dark, almost dreary.  It was never bright today.  Kind of odd lighting.

[Mr Marine Layer]

23 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

The forecast said it would hit 71F today, it did not.  It hit 63F but was noticeably muggy.  Overcast all day, no clear sunshine.  It started to sprinkle which became some random stray showers.  It is now cool, 57F. The sky was pretty much formless today except for defined clouds towards the mountains.

Rather dark, almost dreary.  It was never bright today.  Kind of odd lighting.

You have drifted into the wrong thread. 

[snow_wizard]

The 0z GFS is just flat out disgusting.  Might rival June 1856 for rainfall if it's correct.

[snow_wizard]

I will say we had a very interesting cloud burst here today.  Rained about the hardest I've seen for about 5 minutes.

[snow_wizard]

Apparently there are at least some people on here that are ok with having no summer this year.  The only good news is excessive wetness this time of year is often a pretty good sign for the following winter.  I was sure hoping to see a lot more cool NW flow this year though.

[snow_wizard]

Kind of interesting how people who haven't lived in the NW for a long time have gotten the idea every summer is absolute perfection.  While nice summers are the norm they don't always happen.  I suppose we were due for a bad one.

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of interesting how people who haven't lived in the NW for a long time have gotten the idea every summer is absolute perfection.  While nice summers are the norm they don't always happen.  I suppose we were due for a bad one.

We are three days into meteorological summer. Plus this is the May thread.