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June 2022 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Unless you're invested in beachfront, boating, or swimming pool how can you not like this slightly cool-ish pattern? Rode 16 miles Sunday pm on the Lakeland Trail around Pinckney (that's just north of Hell for those unaware) and I swear the fresh easterlies made it feel like summertime in NMI. The Kid Rocks..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

 

 

Getting rocked again. Over 1” already and still raining. We’ll take it. 

When it rains it pours!  Man, your cashing in Bigly in this pattern.  Thank goodness the Heavens have opened up for your region.  I’d like to experience a storm like that around here.  We just haven’t had the set up yet.

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11 minutes ago, Tom said:

When it rains it pours!  Man, your cashing in Bigly in this pattern.  Thank goodness the Heavens have opened up for your region.  I’d like to experience a storm like that around here.  We just haven’t had the set up yet.

Still waiting here in Seattle... ;)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Big Battle shaping up between the GEFS vs EPS for Week 2...knowing what I see happening up in the Strat, along with the key blocking patterns S of Greenland and up in Canada, this translates into a cooler pattern out E & N.

0z GEFS...trends...let's see if this holds....

image.gif

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

 

 

Iirc, @Clinton I think the pattern setting up the following weekend (17th-19th) resembles quite nicely what has happened frequently in and around Greenland.  It def illustrates what has been a common theme up there.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_42.png

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 73/55. For the day 57% of sunshine was reported 0.09” of rain fall was reported. For today the average H/L is 78/56 The record high was 97 in 1933 and the record low of 38 was recorded in 1998 and 1949. Last year the H/L was 87/65. The overnight low here at my house was 50 and at the current time it is 54.

 

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We now have 7 days of June 2022 in the record books. The mean at Grand Rapids for the 1st 7 days is 63.9 that is a departure of -1.8. At Holland the mean is 61.7 that is a departure of -3.1 at Muskegon the mean is 61.8 for a departure on 2.5. At Lansing the mean there is 66.0 and they have a departure of +1.1. So far Lansing is the only major reporting station in southern lower Michigan that is above average for the month of June. As Detroit, Flint and Saginaw are all below average so far.

 

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20 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

confirmed tornado last night in kc metro area. Landed about 5 minutes north of my job in Overland Park. I’m going to drive by it in a few to see how bad it is 

In Gary's blog this morning he showed how it all came together with the cell developing ahead of the line of storms and then merging with the line.  Sounds like it bounced up and down and uprooted some trees and alot of roof damage.  I only got .40 and have gotten .7 inches for the week.  Tomorrow night could produce a similar setup!

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A decent red cell was moving into the Cedar Rapids area just now, but it quickly stratiformed out to a gentle high-end moderate rain when it arrived.  All we are allowed to get this year is gentle rain with little or no thunder.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

In Gary's blog this morning he showed how it all came together with the cell developing ahead of the line of storms and then merging with the line.  Sounds like it bounced up and down and uprooted some trees and alot of roof damage.  I only got .40 and have gotten .7 inches for the week.  Tomorrow night could produce a similar setup!

I drove by a couple minutes ago and there is a lot of tree damage, power lines down, and some structural damages to buildings. 
 

i just spoke to a guy who runs a emergency response team and he said they have been getting calls nonstop since 130 this morning about damage to homes and businesses 

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

Big Battle shaping up between the GEFS vs EPS for Week 2...knowing what I see happening up in the Strat, along with the key blocking patterns S of Greenland and up in Canada, this translates into a cooler pattern out E & N.

0z GEFS...trends...let's see if this holds....

image.gif

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

 

 

Iirc, @Clinton I think the pattern setting up the following weekend (17th-19th) resembles quite nicely what has happened frequently in and around Greenland.  It def illustrates what has been a common theme up there.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_42.png

Suspect much of the country will be very warm through the second half of June. The GFS/GEFS often has convective feedback problems over Central America during P1 MJO, producing spurious hurricanes and mishandling the longwave middle latitude pattern across the W-Hem (especially the NPAC).

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Low of 64 and some light mist early this morning (not full on fog though). Going back and forth between sun and overcast and sun breaking out again. Low 80's now.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Preliminary report on the tornado that hit last night in the KC area.

Preliminary results** Johnson County KS and Jackson County MO EF1 Tornado 100mph max winds Track was 14 miles long 125 yard maximum width These results are preliminary, we will have more information by this afternoon

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This was almost my 3rd tornado watch of the year... Just off by a county. A short 15 minutes drive out of Ashland (into Greenup) will take you into Tornado Watch #333. lol

286273310_379959867500764_5201433929619134764_n.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Alotta hvy rain moving in soon for my area. Still running bn forthe year though, but not by much.

 

Btw: Temps dipped into the 40s once again last nite. This month has had some chilly evenings thus far.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Thunderstorm has popped up just to my west this afternoon. Looks like it’ll miss me, but it’s pretty dark out now with decent thunder.

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I’ll be coping with 98-101 the next week. 
 

if you want me I’ll be camping in the ice chest at 76 gas station!
They’re having cable installed. 🥵

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Interesting evening... A tree fell on a sidestreet that crosses into Hilton Ave. It wasn't wind or lightning, probably just gave out after a quick thundershower came thru (7:30pm?). A minute after the rain stops, I hear a loud THUD and one of our power poles bent back knocking out power to several homes including ours. lol

We do have some very unkept treelined streets here and I shudder to think what other trees come down when Ashland gets their first 60+ wind event of 2022. We'll get one this summer sometime. 

Power is back on now. Service vehicles have been here for hours, and now a chainsaw cutting up the downed tree.

IMG_4943.JPG

IMG_4947.JPG

IMG_4963.JPG

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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There continued to be storms after that power loss. Not anything frequent or real strong but looked like a minor shelf cloud was going through town right after sunset. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Interesting evening... A tree fell on a sidestreet that crosses into Hilton Ave. It wasn't wind or lightning, probably just gave out after a quick thundershower came thru (7:30pm?). A minute after the rain stops, I hear a loud THUD and one of our power poles bent back knocking out power to several homes including ours. lol

We do have some very unkept treelined streets here and I shudder to think what other trees come down when Ashland gets their first 60+ wind event of 2022. We'll get one this summer sometime. 

Power is back on now. Service vehicles have been here for hours, and now a chainsaw cutting up the downed tree.

IMG_4943.JPG

IMG_4947.JPG

IMG_4963.JPG

Yikes, that’s a bad sign. First big blow of the summer is going to knock your power out for a week. 😬 

In winter 2010 I noticed trees were dropping large branches randomly or during snowfalls. Turns out that was a shot across the bow..that subsequent summer was a nightmare for power outages. 

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The JMA weeklies came in a couple hours ago and suggest a timely and active start to the Monsoon season in the SW....

image.png

 

 

What about temps?  Pretty good looking temp forecast for the eastern CONUS...aside for a stripe of AN Temps from N to S from the Upper MW down to TX, the rest of the SUB looks seasonal...

Screen Shot 2022-06-09 at 3.41.51 AM.png

 

 

Meanwhile, here is the new Euro Seasonal forecast for JUNE...

image.png

 

image.png

 

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 65/49 there was officially 0.32" of rain fall reported at the airport. There was just 1% of possible sunshine. Here at my house I recorded 0.44" of rain fall. That high of 65 was the 7th coolest reading for a high for any June 8th at Grand Rapids and the coolest since 1995. The overnight low both here at my house and officially at GRR was 51. For today the average H/L is 78/57 the record high is 93 set in 2020 and 1964 the record low is 37 set in 1969. At the current time it is clear and 54 here at my house.

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

The JMA weeklies came in a couple hours ago and suggest a timely and active start to the Monsoon season in the SW....

image.png

 

 

What about temps?  Pretty good looking temp forecast for the eastern CONUS...aside for a stripe of AN Temps from N to S from the Upper MW down to TX, the rest of the SUB looks seasonal...

Screen Shot 2022-06-09 at 3.41.51 AM.png

 

 

Meanwhile, here is the new Euro Seasonal forecast for JUNE...

image.png

 

image.png

 

image.png

 

That Euro monthly projection for June might be skewed by its initialization during a cool pattern. Many of the ensemble members had not picked up on the change in tropical forcing (some of it seasonal/monsoonal, some of it MJO related).

I suspect the end result will be warmer across the CONUS. Though possibly not everywhere (the West may end up cooler).

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Downsloping flow scoured out the humidity nicely this AM. Dewpoints dropped from around 70 to the mid-50s in a flash. Turning out to be a beautiful day with almost full sunshine and highs in the low/mid 80s.

Weather looks fantastic for the rest of the week, before a more summer-like pattern begins next week. Will have to see if there is any backdoor cooling here east of the apps, which might offer some relief and/or delay the really nasty stuff.

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