Jump to content

June 2022 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

Its a warm and muggier morning compared to last week (65F/62F)...you get that feeling Summer is about to kick into high gear.  I'm actually excited to feel some real Heat and curious to see if we do reach 100F on Tue.  Some of the models come close but with wet soils it may be more difficult.

 

  • Like 1
  • Sun 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 75/55 there was a trace of rain fall. (just a few sprinkles here at my house) and GR reported 48% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 79/58 the record high is 96 set in 1901 and the record low is 38 set in 1903. The overnight low in MBY was 58 and currently with cloudy skies it is 61. It still looks like the area is on tap for a brief 2 days “heat wave” and then back to near average temperatures.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, Tom said:

Meantime, while most of us embrace Summer wx, our Yooopers up North didn't get the memo as they are hovering near Freezing on June 12th!

It is always amazing how cold it can get in both the UP and even norther lower Michigan on some summer nights 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We’re headed for 104 (conservatively).  
Heat index 108.   After 100 it doesn’t matter till it hits around 110.  
 

We had 4 surges last night. Everyone on edge!   😬😬😬😬

  • Like 1
  • scream 2
  • Sick 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Expecting a high of 101°F today, Heat warning place for all of I-35 from Austin, Texas all the way up to Kansas.

 

Maybe limited to just shy of 100°F, unexpected batch of clouds moved in. 

However, Altus, Oklahoma already reached the mid 90s, it's currently 96°F there as of 10:15 AM

  • Like 3
  • scream 1

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, westMJim said:

It is always amazing how cold it can get in both the UP and even norther lower Michigan on some summer nights 

Considering it's almost the summer solstice as well!

  • Like 1

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Expecting a high of 101°F today, Heat warning place for all of I-35 from Austin, Texas all the way up to Kansas.

 

Maybe limited to just shy of 100°F, unexpected batch of clouds moved in. 

However, Altus, Oklahoma already reached the mid 90s, it's currently 96°F there as of 10:15 AM

Power generators are all struggling.  
After the Texas blackout all power generators are on notice. 
 

 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's already in the 100s in Western and Southwestern Oklahoma, 102°F in Altus. 93°F here, Heat index is 100°F

My mind is thinking it's 4 PM but it's only 1:15

  • Like 2

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Andie said:

Power generators are all struggling.  
After the Texas blackout all power generators are on notice. 
 

 

I'm worried if it shuts down, the consequences would be more devastating compared to February 2021.

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You’re right.  People died in the freeze, but the numbers would be far higher in the heat.  
We’re approaching 105 in the next few hours.  It’s also so hard on animals.  I always put water out for strays.  
 

im headed for surgery in about a month.  Pain drive blood pressure up so I don’t need heat with it too.  Much too dangerous.  
 

Temps were NEVER this bad when I was a kid.  100* days were tops. Temp extremes have certainly changed. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lake breeze kicked in right around 8:00am and temps dropped into upper 50’s along with low stratus.  Clouds have cleared up nicely and it’s 100% sunny.  What a difference it makes in your mood.  Going to enjoy this last day of cooler weather before the heat and humidity makes its way up here. 68F/57F

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Verbatim the 18z HRRR brings a derecho through OH with winds over 100mph Tuesday night. Combustible setup should potential be realized.

  • scream 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Central Oklahoma is one the last holdouts for 100°F temperatures, Currently 95°F.

Otherwise they're popping up in Northern, Western, and Southern Oklahoma.

100°F in Stillwater, OK

105°F in Enid, Alva, & Frederick, OK

109°F in Altus, OK

  • Like 2

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We topped out at 107 !

Pressure 29.69

Humidity 24%

Were all very glad the humidity dropped.  

  • Like 1
  • Sun 1
  • scream 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As a just for fun photographer, I’m pretty sad that this year of all years is the one that Illinois has had close to nothing in terms of warnings and actual storms. With gas being what it is, I don’t really find it worth it to chase outside of the state unless it’s one of the immediate surrounding, so I’m banking on IL getting in on some of the action tomorrow though it looks like the potential has shifted a bit north with the updated models. So meh 😭 

 

That said, here’s the one shot I got from the only decent warning we’ve had back in May, where of course I didn’t have my camera lol 😂 

 

 

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

They said our 107 was a 110 heat index.  Humidity was 24% so likely correct.  

Forecast calling for 108 tomorrow.  I’m praying that’s it for us.  4 power surges last night had me worried silly.
They screw this up, people will die!  They know it, but knowing won’t stop it.   

I was crazy enough to grill some steaks. I felt medium-well when I finished! 
 

Kansas had a nice post storm sky.

 

B2309D73-DE37-41FB-9DA1-170FFAA115F6.jpeg

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

0Z model runs for max temps/heat index tomorrow for Omaha. Record high is 101.

HRRR: 102/106

3km NAM: 104/109

NAM: 100/103

GFS: 97/103

Only supposed to drop to 80 degrees tomorrow night and then back up to 98 Tuesday. As was mentioned, next weekend Omaha WFO already has 100 degrees for the high.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Expecting 101* today.  
Power outages in NE Dallas area.  I’m holding my breath.  

  • Like 3

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 80/59 there was no rain fall and the day had 83% of possible sunshine. All in all a very nice mid June day. The overnight low here was 60 and at the current time it is 65 with clear skies. For today the average H/L is 79/58 the record high of 95 was set way back in 1894 in more recent times a high of 94 was recorded in 1956. With the expected heat for the next two days the record high for Tuesday is 96 and for Wednesday it is 97.

Even with all of the write up in todays discussion the Storm Prediction Center only has us in the slight risk area. So what will happen? We will have to wait and see how this all play out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Andie said:

Expecting 101* today.  
Power outages in NE Dallas area.  I’m holding my breath.  

Oh no, this is the last thing you want to hear or see.

But the only good news is the core of a heatwave has moved off to the East, for now. Which currently means is that the extreme heat is not overhead us, Heat warnings for the Mississippi and Missouri River valleys, and Heat watches for the Ohio Valley.

I only peaked at 98°F, Busted as a Low of 101°F from the morning forecast from the National Weather Service in Norman

  • Like 1

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OAX grids are now up to 105-106 in Lincoln, that seems aggressive but we'll see how far dews drop. Still swampy this morning, woke up to 80/75 🤢

  • Like 1
  • scream 2
  • Sick 1

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty Intense in Texas.  
Another really hot day.  
 

BF9F59E2-7E1F-4A1D-9E07-EA0FC1F4F4D3.jpeg

  • Windy 1
  • scream 2

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A nice storm just moved through Cedar Rapids and dropped half-inch diameter hail and a quick 0.45" of rain.  As usual, there was very little thunder.

  • Like 1
  • Rain 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z NAM 3km seems to be having good initialization.... @westMJim and S MI boys may get rocked this evening...

 

image.gif

I'll take the rain.   Hopefully the worst goes south of my area.  GR would be on the northern edge of the complex of storms at this time.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It has been 10 years since there has been a 100 degree day recorded at the Moline International Airport.  I find that hard to believe, but it is true.  Certainly there have been places in the area that have hit 100 in that time and others extremely close.  Regardless, check out the summer of 1936, its just so remarkable.  11 consecutive days over 100 degrees from July 5th through the 15th.  And several other days in addition to that.  

 

 

https://www.weather.gov/dvn/Climate_MLI_100

 

 

image.png.fc887ec3d3fe0e7c6fd13cdae973dcc1.png

  • Like 4
  • scream 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good news/bad news.

Bad news: IMO, I suspect this is just one of several cycles of widespread heat that will smother the country this summer. La Niña/-PDO summers with significant CONUS heatwaves in June almost always have more of it during the dog days of summer. And the low pass signal in tropical forcing is highly suggestive of nastiness.

Good news. There could be a break in the heat for a time in early July if an MJO transit through the West-Pacific comes to fruition. And furthermore, there’s some evidence summer could “end” earlier than normal should forcing evolve as analogs suggest, with more troughing starting in late August and lasting through September.

Of course I could be wrong. But I’m looking pretty hard and can’t find substantial evidence to the contrary.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...