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June 2022 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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49 minutes ago, Tom said:

It looked like we would miss out on the storms as MKE got hammered with 1-2" diameter hail.

While Grand Rapids did get some rain (mostly less than 0.25") and a few light thunderstorms. The bigger storms were either to our west, north, east or south.

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Another key battle is shaping up between the GEFS & EPS....recall the battle the GEFS won for this coming weekend from the GL's and points East.  The GEFS won and the trough pattern prevailed.  Now, here comes the fun part, do the GEFS "see" the Monster "Summer Solstice" summer time ridge retrograde west or does it remain locked in place as the EPS suggests?  My gut says it retrogrades based on the 

Here's the 0z EPS 500mb animation from the Summer Solstice period...

image.gif

 

0z GEFS..this is a good time to Test a long range forecasting method I typically use in the autumn/winter months when I look at the Strat warm/cold pools.  It suggests the GEFS pattern wins out, in fact, by the time we enter July 1st there may be a nice cool pool developing over the heartland of the nation.  4th of July weekend may get wet and cooler.  Just some preliminary LR thoughts as we endure this expansive June Heat Wave.

 

image.gif

 

Since we don't have a Summer thread, I'll post these JMA seasonal wx maps here.  If you are looking for a relaxation of the Summer Sizzle, then this is your model to choose.

1.png

 

Temps...BN pattern to straddle the northern half of Sub...

image.png

 

Precip...wet central CONUS ag belt...

Screen Shot 2022-06-14 at 6.18.33 AM.png

 

How will the Summer season end?  Just like it started...cool and wet may be a certain Bet!  $$$$

Temp/Precip...while the map portrays a widespread seasonal temp pattern to end Met Summer, I personally think it will show more cooling over the CONUS, esp with a 500mb it is displaying and the pockets of AN precip.

Screen Shot 2022-06-14 at 6.20.26 AM.png

 

Screen Shot 2022-06-14 at 6.20.17 AM.png

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I’m sure that cool doesn’t include Oklahoma and Texas.  But we’re used to it. 
Here’s our next 10 days. 
 

209090AC-4B4A-45EC-9924-BEAE027893D5.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The airport has not been reporting observations since the passage of the storm line last night. lol

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KDWU

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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7 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

I've noticed that there's no longer a +10-15 degree bias on the GFS for summer heat waves. I wonder what the deal with that was last summer.

Maybe it was just waiting for this to become reality. 😬

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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At the 1PM reading some temperatures around lower Michigan. Grand Rapids 80 with a dew point of 72. Lansing 75 with a dew point of 68. Detroit 78 with a dew point of 61 Here at my house 81 with a dew point of 79. It is much warmer at Kalamazoo with a temperature of 90 and a dew point of 77.

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Good grief !!

We’ll only top out at 97*.  
Miracles do exist!😇

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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It's hot out there (currently low 90s), but it's also windy and noticeably less humid than yesterday.  I was just outside for several minutes and didn't even begin to sweat.  Yesterday, especially the first half of the day, was oppressively humid.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

Another key battle is shaping up between the GEFS & EPS....recall the battle the GEFS won for this coming weekend from the GL's and points East.  The GEFS won and the trough pattern prevailed.  Now, here comes the fun part, do the GEFS "see" the Monster "Summer Solstice" summer time ridge retrograde west or does it remain locked in place as the EPS suggests?  My gut says it retrogrades based on the 

Here's the 0z EPS 500mb animation from the Summer Solstice period...

image.gif

 

0z GEFS..this is a good time to Test a long range forecasting method I typically use in the autumn/winter months when I look at the Strat warm/cold pools.  It suggests the GEFS pattern wins out, in fact, by the time we enter July 1st there may be a nice cool pool developing over the heartland of the nation.  4th of July weekend may get wet and cooler.  Just some preliminary LR thoughts as we endure this expansive June Heat Wave.

 

image.gif

 

Since we don't have a Summer thread, I'll post these JMA seasonal wx maps here.  If you are looking for a relaxation of the Summer Sizzle, then this is your model to choose.

1.png

 

Temps...BN pattern to straddle the northern half of Sub...

image.png

 

Precip...wet central CONUS ag belt...

Screen Shot 2022-06-14 at 6.18.33 AM.png

 

How will the Summer season end?  Just like it started...cool and wet may be a certain Bet!  $$$$

Temp/Precip...while the map portrays a widespread seasonal temp pattern to end Met Summer, I personally think it will show more cooling over the CONUS, esp with a 500mb it is displaying and the pockets of AN precip.

Screen Shot 2022-06-14 at 6.20.26 AM.png

 

Screen Shot 2022-06-14 at 6.20.17 AM.png

I’m not sure the GEFS “won” since it was projecting a prolonged, 7+ day trough, while in reality it’ll be a transient 2-3 day event followed by another prograding heat ridge.

I have hope the first half of July will offer a “break” in the heat as upper level divergence reaches the dateline. But the 2nd half of July looks brutal again, with IO forcing/W-Pacific subsidence taking over. 😬 

F761D105-7FA0-42AD-B4F5-30A65F4C0714.jpeg

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

What a way to start of the work week  yesterday.  You guys heard me yearning for a solid storm and boy did nature surely deliver!  This super cell just blossomed out of nowhere.  It looked like we would miss out on the storms as MKE got hammered with 1-2" diameter hail but that storm cell actually helped fire up our storm cell as it produced a lake-enduced CF to straddle the extremely Humid and warm airmass.  DP's were in the low 80's south of the front combined with a bursting CAP, the atmosphere fired up and the storm ignited straight up reaching 60,000 ft+ into the atmosphere.  Amazingly, while this Super Cell was both Severe and Tornado warned, I did not see any damage.  It was literally the best outcome I could ask for as a wx enthusiast.

There were many reports of rotation within the southern periphery of the storm.  Lot's of storm damage from wind and/or likely a microburst along with hail.  I saw torrential rain, .25" hail and prob the loudest and wildest CG's I've seen.  At times, each flash of lighting would produce a power surge inside my house.  It was actually pretty scary bc I could hear the electricity go through the wires/boxes.  My power went out for about 5-10 min...but thankfully...it came back on and the storm exited.

 

Some cool vids/pics of the super cell...

 

 

FVLGbcJWUAA7i1m?format=jpg&name=medium

 

 

Congrats brother! Send some of that my way please. 🙏 😂 

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

At the 1PM reading some temperatures around lower Michigan. Grand Rapids 80 with a dew point of 72. Lansing 75 with a dew point of 68. Detroit 78 with a dew point of 61 Here at my house 81 with a dew point of 79. It is much warmer at Kalamazoo with a temperature of 90 and a dew point of 77.

Front is through.  It got hot and steamy.  Unbearable outside.  Officially 87 with dew of 74.  feels like  96.  Thick thick air.  

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The storm must have knocked KDWU out. I'd have to look for another local weather station to say what our temp is outside. Last observation was 8pm 6/13. ⛈️

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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It's hot! Picture says it all. Cat stealing the shade by the front door. 😺

IMG_4998.JPG

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

I’m not sure the GEFS “won” since it was projecting a prolonged, 7+ day trough, while in reality it’ll be a transient 2-3 day event followed by another prograding heat ridge.

I have hope the first half of July will offer a “break” in the heat as upper level divergence reaches the dateline. But the 2nd half of July looks brutal again, with IO forcing/W-Pacific subsidence taking over. 😬 

F761D105-7FA0-42AD-B4F5-30A65F4C0714.jpeg

Larry Cosgrove is still in eather the warm neutul to weak El Nino idea this fall.whats he seeing your have to ask him that question.

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12 hours ago, Tom said:

What a way to start of the work week  yesterday.  You guys heard me yearning for a solid storm and boy did nature surely deliver!  This super cell just blossomed out of nowhere.  It looked like we would miss out on the storms as MKE got hammered with 1-2" diameter hail but that storm cell actually helped fire up our storm cell as it produced a lake-enduced CF to straddle the extremely Humid and warm airmass.  DP's were in the low 80's south of the front combined with a bursting CAP, the atmosphere fired up and the storm ignited straight up reaching 60,000 ft+ into the atmosphere.  Amazingly, while this Super Cell was both Severe and Tornado warned, I did not see any damage.  It was literally the best outcome I could ask for as a wx enthusiast.

There were many reports of rotation within the southern periphery of the storm.  Lot's of storm damage from wind and/or likely a microburst along with hail.  I saw torrential rain, .25" hail and prob the loudest and wildest CG's I've seen.  At times, each flash of lighting would produce a power surge inside my house.  It was actually pretty scary bc I could hear the electricity go through the wires/boxes.  My power went out for about 5-10 min...but thankfully...it came back on and the storm exited.

 

Some cool vids/pics of the super cell...

 

 

FVLGbcJWUAA7i1m?format=jpg&name=medium

 

 

That sounds riveting! I would love to see a storm like that in my lifetime.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, weatherfan2012 said:

Larry Cosgrove is still in eather the warm neutul to weak El Nino idea this fall.whats he seeing your have to ask him that question.

Yeah that ain’t happening. Lol.

Trades about to go nuclear for several weeks.

B7DC729D-3121-4314-AB7A-CA5C5E862E49.png

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23 hours ago, Tom said:

This is one hellova storm…woah, loud AF!  Rain coming down sideways…power is surging..:

Late on the reply but wow Tom; this might be one of the most impressive radar displays I have seen in a long time! I have never seen that amount of CG's from one storm even out here in the plains! Hoping we get lucky tonight before another heat wave this weekend. 

FVLArIOXEAEGlIB.jpg

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This heat is taking it’s sweet time meandering east.  
Y’all stay safe and cool. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning just to my west! Stepped out on the deck to take it in! Distant thunder and lightning is off the charts! Had a feeling this was gonna happen tonight. Thunderstorms are blossoming to my southwest. Might be a stormy night. We'll see. Either way....out on the deck with a cold one and taking in what I can⚡😎

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I'm gonna barely get missed by this cell to the west...northwest....and north. But wow....what a display. The wind got calm (even though it was windy all day) but just watching this pass by is amazing. So much lighting and thunder. So much electricity in the air. Mother Nature is so powerful. Cluster to my SW might still hit me. We'll see how that pans out.

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