June 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Andie]

Totally not happy about this trend.

 

[Phil]

Got woken up by crashing thunder this AM. Now sunny and heating up quickly. 

[Iceresistance]

KFOR has highs in the 100s next weekend . . .

[Andie]

Yeah. They just upgraded us.  
100-105 then next week.   Can’t win for losing in the southern plains.  
Pray for the grid my friends.  

Me and my husbands blood pressure might not be able to manage it.  
I may be going to work with him. The City has generators and a/c.  

This is insane. When will this heat move down??

[Clinton]

The heat is back today, not much breeze either.

A Few Clouds

95°F

35°C

Humidity	57%
Wind Speed	SW 12 mph
Barometer	29.96 in (1013.8 mb)
Dewpoint	77°F (25°C)
Visibility	7.00 mi
Heat Index	111°F (44°C)
Last update	16 Jun 4:56 pm CDT

[Andie]

Video of how much the topography has changed from the historic flooding in Yellowstone.  
 

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/yellowstone-river-satellite-images-before-and-after

[Andie]

It’s estimated that 10,000 head of angus died from excessive heat in SW Kansas.   
108* daytime temps 

100* nighttime created overheating and dehydration.   Estimated $200 million lost to farmers.  
Unbelievable.  
This must be more than a 100 yr heatwave.  Devastating to these ranchers. 

[snowstorm83]

Hailing in SE Lincoln, pretty rough storm moving through

[Clinton]

54 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Hailing in SE Lincoln, pretty rough storm moving through

Looks like a developing MCS.  Hope it turns south and makes it down here.

[Phil]

Heard the first cicada of the summer this evening around sunset. A few crickets at night too.

Quiet nights about to go bye bye until October.

[Tom]

@snowstorm83looks like he's been getting rocked near LNK...

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=comprad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=75&interval=5&year=2022&month=6&day=16&hour=18&minute=55

 

[Tom]

This is the type of nocturnal setup that can generate a firehouse of training storms....the radar is lit!

Meantime, the 1st official Heat Wave (3 90F+ days in a row) we just experienced set some eye popping records.  MDW airport Never had back-2-back 100's this early in the season, Never had 3 record high temps broken this early in the season and ORD set another Record high yesterday of 96F.  It was an interesting day as it started off very damp/humid from sunrise through mid morning, then the CF swept through and DP's started dropping while the winds picked up quickly. 

By late afternoon, I was surprised to see how things dried up so quickly in the drier, windy and HOT conditions.  It's fascinating how that works.  The winds were very gusty as small branches were falling off the trees. 

 

[Tom]

"Ring of Fire"...the quintessential Summer Time High Pressure that churns up the Heat...boy, I feel for ya @Andie @OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance and the rest of you that are going to Blaze in the Heat into next week...

 

Meanwhile, those of us on the northern periphery of the HP will begin to see storm chances to rise on the evening of the official day of Summer (21st)...the Monsoonal Flow coming out of the SW will ride E/NE into CO and into the Plains late next Tue into Wed...another repeat heavy RN scenario near NE/KS/MO??  Who will score this time?

[Tom]

While it will remain warmer than normal for the most part through next week/weekend, it appears it will also become quite active...."Ring of Fire" will keep things interesting for most of us...

[Timmy Supercell]

I think this was our warmest night/morning so far. Low 73 and was close to 80 most of the AM hours. 

Waiting for whatever storms come thru. Seems like it's been difficult to get anything going in the Ohio Valley. 

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 89/70 there was no rain fall and there was 84% of possible sunshine. That low of 70 tied 1919, 1994 and 2018 for the warmest minimum for the date. It was also very windy with wind guest at Grand Rapids as high as 44 MPH. The overnight low in MBY was 62 and the official overnight low looks to have been 64. At this time it is clear and 63 here at my house. For today the average H/L is 80/59 the record high of 95 was set in 1992 and 1994. The record low of 40 was set in 1980.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Storms working into southern Indiana and western Kentucky.

[Andie]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

While it will remain warmer than normal for the most part through next week/weekend, it appears it will also become quite active...."Ring of Fire" will keep things interesting for most of us...

It’s rough.  You worry about everything. Property, animals, a/c equipment.  You just pray you make it another year without some disaster.  
I’ve never been a fan of summer.  But especially when the 100*+ days drag on & on.  

73* headed for 100+ for the next 2 weeks.  

[Timmy Supercell]

I just hope we won't enter some dry period and doesn't rain for two weeks, and still hot at the same time.

[Andie]

4 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I just hope we won't enter some dry period and doesn't rain for two weeks, and still hot at the same time.

We’re already there.

[Clinton]

Last nights Euro shows a lot of nothing for the next 10 days for mby.

[Timmy Supercell]

Finally they issue a watch that covers every county in eastern KY. 

So far my 2nd to include Boyd.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I just hope we won't enter some dry period and doesn't rain for two weeks, and still hot at the same time.

I think we could have some interesting times during the first half of July with the MJO/GWO transiting the West-Pacific for a few weeks.

Could (?) provide a hiatus from the death ridge and increase convective chances across our region.

But late July and most of August look brutal again with convection returning to the IO/E-Hem and AAM falling. The current pattern might just be a shot across the bow.

[Iceresistance]

42 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think we could have some interesting times during the first half of July with the MJO/GWO transiting the West-Pacific for a few weeks.

Could (?) provide a hiatus from the death ridge and increase convective chances across our region.

But late July and most of August look brutal again with convection returning to the IO/E-Hem and AAM falling. The current pattern might just be a shot across the bow.

I really hope it will break this pattern, I really don't want to go outside with the highs in the 90s combined with oppressive humidity (Dew Points are in the 70s)

[Tom]

What a gorgeous Friday afternoon with temps in the low 80’s and a nice NW breeze.  Gonna enjoy these next few days of relief.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

I really hope it will break this pattern, I really don't want to go outside with the highs in the 90s combined with oppressive humidity (Dew Points are in the 70s)

Subseasonal analogs filtered for the low pass/ENSO standing wave(s) do suggest there will be a break in the heat for a couple of weeks in early/mid July.

Though it might just be the ridge retrogrades westward a bit and relief is confined to the eastern part of the country. Can’t know the details this far out. Your guess is as good as mine.

The return of IO forcing/dateline subsidence in late July suggests it won’t last, though. This looks like a fairly coherent intraseasonal cycle in tropical forcing.

[Timmy Supercell]

Been having a thunderstorm for the last hour and a half, just not really on top of me. 

72 with a dew point of, yup you guessed it, 72! The storms have passed through and I think that marks the start of another dry out if nothing happens tonight. 

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Subseasonal analogs filtered for the low pass/ENSO standing wave(s) do suggest there will be a break in the heat for a couple of weeks in early/mid July.

Though it might just be the ridge retrogrades westward a bit and relief is confined to the eastern part of the country. Can’t know the details this far out. Your guess is as good as mine.

The return of IO forcing/dateline subsidence in late July suggests it won’t last, though. This looks like a fairly coherent intraseasonal cycle in tropical forcing.

This La Nina is stubborn, I do want to mention that someone on a different forum said that the risk of a TC striking Texas is higher than normal. 

[Andie]

I’ve heard that too.  The sooner the better 

It’ll move this High off of us.  
 

We’re sitting at 99 but it feels hotter.  

[gabel23]

11 hours ago, Tom said:

While it will remain warmer than normal for the most part through next week/weekend, it appears it will also become quite active...."Ring of Fire" will keep things interesting for most of us...

Got lucky last night; I was getting missed to the north and to the south. Thankfully the line of storms kept back building and the lightning was insane! I was outside watching and a bolt struck not far from my house. I looked at my radar and it showed up 2 minutes after it hit! Picked up 2" of rain and my month of June total is up over 5! Been lucky as heck too as the hail missed me! 

[Andie]

People are reporting back to me they’re seeing 103/4 on outside thermometers.   I believe they’re underplaying the heat.  
But we have 10-12 days of this ahead.

Humidity 43% 

[Timmy Supercell]

Places within 20 minutes of Ashland had trees and powerlines down. Was mostly a noise maker storm here other than a couple gusts over 40mph. 

Back to clear skies and no storms for the next few days. 90/71 on the high/low. That 71 occurred in the afternoon however, it was like 73 when I woke up. 

[Andie]

Guys, I caught a story tonight that they’re worried about the grid in central us. 
The area in red/most at risk/ included Michigan south to Louisiana. 
 

The states just west of The aforementioned area to the Rockies and from Canada to the Gulf we’re in Yellow/at risk but less so.  
We’re all at risk it seems so paying attention to heat indexes will be paramount.  This is potentially killing heat.  So prepare now for what you can.  Light, cooking, storage of what you need.  
Meds could be an issue for all of us.  
Think now what you need to survive a couple weeks.  
if you can relocate to somewhere with power, go.   

[Tom]

11 hours ago, gabel23 said:

Got lucky last night; I was getting missed to the north and to the south. Thankfully the line of storms kept back building and the lightning was insane! I was outside watching and a bolt struck not far from my house. I looked at my radar and it showed up 2 minutes after it hit! Picked up 2" of rain and my month of June total is up over 5! Been lucky as heck too as the hail missed me! 

You win some, you loose some...glad to hear your on the winning side of things.  I've been lucky also and was getting hit during every opportunity that came about.  How's your garden doing?

[Tom]

JMA for the win?  It appears that the JMA weeklies "saw" the retrograding ridge a lot better in the extended.  The GEFS did "see" the idea but kept going back n forth...but now, all the models are dialing in on a stronger Summer time CF to push right down through the heartland of the Nation late next weekend.  Gotta get through this next week of Heat and then I think we'll all see some relief.  

0z GEFS...

 

 

0z EPS...These temps look nice....EPS playing catch up IMHO...

 

Meantime, the JMA MJO forecast steadfast in Phase 1 and meandering near Phase 2...

Phase 2 Temp profile in July...Let's hope We All don't Fry....outside of TX and the Gulf States, I think July will be a banner month for precip and generally seasonal & BN temps for most of the central/eastern Sub.  

 

 

 

My original long standing idea for this summer was for the Vortex up in Canada to sit and spin across the northeastern part of the continent, at times, near Hudson Bay if the blocking is strong enough.  The CFSv2 is showing this nicely.  If the LR models are right about developing a "Hooking Ridge over the Top"...it'll be a prime pattern to see active CF's pushing through our Sub.  I foresee a great signal for stalled out frontal boundaries developing across OK/KS/NE/MO and the eastern Ag belt.

 

Last, but not least, the Euro Weeklies are pretty much in alignment with the CFSv2 in the general North American blocking pattern for the month of July...there may be some very chilly air around the GL's during the 1st half of July.

[Andie]

Tom,   How bad is it going to get in Texas?  Really. 

[Iceresistance]

@AndieI'm surprised you didn't mention about the storms yesterday over DFW.

[Andie]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

@AndieI'm surprised you didn't mention about the storms yesterday over DFW.

It didn’t amt to much.   
not worth the mention.  Made no significant change.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks like one last cool day for some areas of the East Coast. 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Looks like one last cool day for some areas of the East Coast. 

Today and tomorrow below 80 here! Might have a low of 48 tonight.