Jump to content

June 2022 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

Lawn mower induced dust storms this afternoon.

If tomorrow’s storms fail to materialize, then we’re probably screwed since pattern seems to want to stay dry in the long range.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Beautiful evening on this first day of summer! Front blew through about 5pm. Out on the deck with a cold one and about to throw a sirloin and ear of sweetcorn over the charcoals. Late supper but thats all good. 81° with 41% humidity. Light breeze from NW. Quite refreshing after the past couple days.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Phil said:

EPS weeklies hi temp matrix for Dallas/Ft Worth is brutal.

Almost every ensemble member projects 100+ heat into Aug. Some members don’t have a single day below 100°F for the next 46 days. :o 

1FF18185-DF32-421B-803C-4A8059E14E62.jpeg

Just like us….. but in mid/late July.😢

  
What is forcing this heat early and is this our summer?  Or will it back off? 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

92/54 today! Dew points a little easier in the 60's but I assume it goes up when storms enter the forecast again.

  • Like 2

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Today was a hot one.  We maxed out at 96º with a dew in the low 70s.  This has been a very sunny weather pattern.  We had a few clouds this morning and late this afternoon with the frontal passage, which I believe were the first clouds I've seen in days.  The broken line of storms along the front popped just east and south of my area.  Every single surge of heat and humidity this year has been followed by a dry cold front passage.  We are always capped and the timing of the fronts has been poor.  Often, the way to get heavy rain around here is to have a front stall e-w across Iowa and have disturbances ride along the front.  That just hasn't happened this year and there is no sign of it on the models.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Andie said:

Just like us….. but in mid/late July.😢

  
What is forcing this heat early and is this our summer?  Or will it back off? 

Combination of La Niña and regional forcings/standing waves.

And no, unfortunately it will not back off. The Midwest, Northern Plains, and Great Lakes have a “break” in the heat coming up with more troughy/variable weather until mid-July, but Texas/Deep South is probably screwed.

Late July/August everyone probably joins the heat party. 😕

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We came close, but no cigar...ORD hit 99F around 3:00pm but MDW hit 101F!  Crazy how many times that airport has hit 100F already this year (3x).  UHI in full effect.  I wonder where they have the sensors located.

  • Like 2
  • Sun 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

While I was combing through some recent data, I'm seeing a good and clear signal for a major trough over the eastern CONUS by mid July.  My target dates of July 14th-20th suggest a deep trough and one that can penetrate into the deep south.  This could very well have some legs for a sustained period of cooler and wetter/active wx.  I need to see a few more days of data to be more certain how long this predicted troughy pattern can last.  I don't see any long periods of HOT weather for most of us on here next month, except for the lone state of Texas (sadly).

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 95/68 that was the 2nd hottest reading for any June 21 at Grand Rapids. Once again there was no rain fall and there was 96% of possible sunshine. At Lansing their high of 98 tied 1988 for the record for the date. The overnight low here at my house was 71 at the airport the low so far was 74. For today the average H/L is 81/60 the record high of 97 was set in 1894 and 1923 the record low of 39 was set in 1922. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Phil said:

Combination of La Niña and regional forcings/standing waves.

And no, unfortunately it will not back off. The Midwest, Northern Plains, and Great Lakes have a “break” in the heat coming up with more troughy/variable weather until mid-July, but Texas/Deep South is probably screwed.

Late July/August everyone probably joins the heat party. 😕

Oddly enough, that sounds more normal.   We often get a break in the 100’s/high 90’s sometime in summer. 
Texans use it to catch up on outdoor activities or some fun. 
It’s worth the heat to live here.  God knows some issues are challenging us but the lifestyle and attitudes of us Native-born Texans is worth the heat. 
There’s always vacations in Colorado. 😃

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From my recent trip to NY. The time was about 8:30PM. Approaching La Guardia Airport for landing.

Flying over NYC.jpg

Pic2.jpg

  • Like 8

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Starting to look like the death ridge will resist the pattern change to some extent.

Bad omen for later in July and August when tropical forcing becomes favorable for a hot pattern again. 😬

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

High was 92°F this afternoon, pretty muggy too.

Unfortunately the convection has totally screwed me so far, keeps diving west towards the terrain. Looks like I’ll have to start watering the yard soon. Sucks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 days in the 100’s.  
Then 4 days in the 94’s
Then back to 100’s.  
 

Forecasting is easy in Texas in Summer!!  
Hot, followed by hot, with a threat of hotter. 😎👍

  • lol 1
  • Sun 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

With the hot weather recently, I've of course had snow and winter on my mind cause... well, cause why not. 

I took a look at total winter season snowfall in the Sioux Falls area since 2015...

2014/2015: 31.9

2015/2016: 68.5

2016/2017: 42.9

2017/2018: 70.4

2018/2019: 52.4

2019/2020: 39.4

2020/2021: 40.0

Total average over the course of those years: 49.35

Now compare that with the total snowfall received during the 2021/2022 season: 19.9

Pretty insane that last year's total snow was an almost 60% drop from the average of the proceeding seven years. Hopefully this upcoming 3rd year Nina can balance out the scale and drop some serious snow on us. Would be perfect timing for our first full winter here!

Last winter was terrible for our areas, probably a good thing you missed it. Though at least Sioux Falls got a 10" dumping in December (which melted a few days later). 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Now compare that with the total snowfall received during the 2021/2022 season: 19.9

Amazing how poor the snow season was to the south of me. In Fargo, it seemed absolutely endless. Made me almost happy I'll be taking a winter off in California.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Been a toasty day. A line of severe warned storms came through the region but the middle of it broke apart (where I am). But I have been hearing rumblings from the east last hour or so.

  • Like 1
  • Storm 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Been a toasty day. A line of severe warned storms came through the region but the middle of it broke apart (where I am). But I have been hearing rumblings from the east last hour or so.

I must be getting some anvil lightning. The storms are easily 30+ miles from here now and there are flashes close enough to produce some decent sound. 

  • Storm 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I must be getting some anvil lightning. The storms are easily 30+ miles from here now and there are flashes close enough to produce some decent sound. 

Getting a pity thunderstorm here now. The big stuff missed us this afternoon. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, Tom said:

@OttumwaSnomow, did you get nailed last night?  Looking at the radar last night around 6:00pm I saw the line of storms firing up to your West and I was hoping you would score a good storm.

Tom, unbelievably  i only got 6/100. Good rain almost encircled me.  Getting eerily similar  to summer of 2017 when we had a localized dome that resulted  in  wapello  and davis counties being  declared drought disasters.  Im at 1.31 in June.   Most grass crispy brown, corn and soybeans showing stress. Did get a good rainbow tues pm

20220621_202420.jpg

Screenshot_20220621-211521_RadarScope.jpg

  • Like 1
  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

Amazing how poor the snow season was to the south of me. In Fargo, it seemed absolutely endless. Made me almost happy I'll be taking a winter off in California.

You'll be moving to So Cal I assume?  That'll be quite the change...watch, you'll be a magnet and attract the southern jet next Autumn/Winter!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Tom, unbelievably  i only got 6/100. Good rain almost encircled me.  Getting eerily similar  to summer of 2017 when we had a localized dome that resulted  in  wapello  and davis counties being  declared drought disasters.  Im at 1.31 in June.   Most grass crispy brown, corn and soybeans showing stress. Did get a good rainbow tues pm

20220621_202420.jpg

Screenshot_20220621-211521_RadarScope.jpg

Fortunately, there are more opportunities showing up and I'm seeing a good pattern for active wx as we close out JUN and open July.  My gut feeling is you'll catch up in the precip dept.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

You gotta like the consistency between the UKIE/EURO through this weekend...things are getting real dry here and I noticed the ground is rock solid.  Had to water the plants once in the am and pm for the 1st time all season.

1.png

 

image.png

 

Boy, hasn't KS been a magnet of late....what a difference a year makes, ay?  I'm encouraged this will translate to a continuation of the same pattern through the rest of this Summer.  I also believe that we will see a good crop for the majority of the heartland.

Last 30 days...

3.png

 

@Philis going to enjoy an ideal temp pattern through the extended... @Madtownmay have to start up a fire for the 4th of July weekend....

1.gif

 

As mentioned above, I see more of the "same" as we flip into the month of July.  Both the GEFS/EPS are suggesting a rather active look for the Big holiday weekend across the central Plains/MW.  Not only will we see local Fireworks on display but nature will showcase some of her Atmospheric Fireworks!

image.gif

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Tom said:

You'll be moving to So Cal I assume?  That'll be quite the change...watch, you'll be a magnet and attract the southern jet next Autumn/Winter!

I've been in SoCal for a couple months. Only difference is that this time, it's intended to be 100% temporary. Next state I move to after this (hopefully late 2023) will be permanent. It'll also be back in this subforum's territory.

We had some monsoonal moisture here yesterday, gave me some rumbles of thunder and some heavy rain. Nice change of pace from the constant sun now that marine layer season is over.

  • Like 2

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Absolutely gorgeous outside. Lots of deep, blue skies, no humidity, temps in the mid 50s and you can hear that light breeze from the leaves on the trees from time to time. Just stunning!

  • Like 3

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yesterday was another very sunny day with 100% of possible sunshine. It is now becoming rather dry as so far this June has only had 0.85” of rain fall and that is well below the average of 2.85” by this date. Muskegon, Holland and Lansing have had more rain fall but they too are below average for June. And the thunderstorm drought also continues at Grand Rapids. The official H/L yesterday was 86/67 and there was no rain fall. The overnight low in MBY was 57.  The official overnight low at GRR was 58. At the current time it is clear and 62 here. For today the average H/L is 81/60 the record high is 98 set in 1923 and the record low is 38 set in 1918. Last year the H/L was a cool 72/48 and there was 0.09” of rain fall. The rest of this week and the start of next week look to be dry with typical late June early July temperatures 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

I've been in SoCal for a couple months. Only difference is that this time, it's intended to be 100% temporary. Next state I move to after this (hopefully late 2023) will be permanent. It'll also be back in this subforum's territory.

We had some monsoonal moisture here yesterday, gave me some rumbles of thunder and some heavy rain. Nice change of pace from the constant sun now that marine layer season is over.

Enjoy the beauty of So Cal and the ocean!  Regarding the Monsoon, I wrote a message to my buddy who lives in Calabasas about getting some moisture and he got awaken by rumbles of thunder around 5:00am yesterday.  The entire SW seems to be getting in on the action which is ideal in many aspects.  Hope it continues for ya’ll!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not much to report in Texas, however we’ll see some rain (.10-.25”) Mon-Tues…Big Woo!

Prior to that we’ll see increasing temps 100-104.  Wednesday we return to triple digits.  That summer High is just sitting right over Oklahoma.  


This isn’t any fun and I don’t see any changes ahead.  We’d be happy to stay in the 90’s however……

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...