June 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

+ changes showing up wrt to moisture for those who have been abnormally dry as we turn our attn towards the 4th of July!  Mother Nature may be showcasing her beauty and deliver some atmospheric Fireworks for some of us in the MW on the 4th.  0z EPS has been steadily shifting the track of the short wave coming out of the N Rockies south, thus leading to a more active storm track thru IA/IL/MI during the Holiday.

What lies ahead for the 1st week of July is a bonafide "Ring of Fire" pattern for a lot of us across the Northern/Eastern Sub...NW Flow aloft is going to set up a prime time - summer time storm pattern...

 

Check out how the 0z EPS retrogrades the HP to the SW region...0z GEFS is on board also, in fact, both models are locked into the same idea that as we head into the middle part of the month it may very well get cooler for a lot of the Sub as my call for a major trough mid month sets up.

 

0z EPS...getting darn close to what I'd imagine by mid month...

 

[Andie]

Poor ol’ Texas is shut out of moisture. That High just sits there cranking.  
We’re spared the real heat though. High of 93 is manageable.  
 

Raging 100’s will return Monday for another week of “joy”. Soaking yard to prep for a hot July.  
Dog Daze are here.  

[westMJim]

06/29/2022

Finally received a good rain fall over night with 0.66” falling here in MBY. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 83/48 there was no rain reported before midnight and there was 90% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 83/61 the record high of 97 was set in 1913 and the record low of 43 was set in 1943. The overnight low here in MBY was 61 to go along with that 0.66” of rain fall and at this time it is cloudy and 63.

 

[Clinton]

The 90s return today but it will be comfortable with low humidity and Dewpoints around 60.  The models seem unsettled on the placement of a weak cold front Friday night, fingers crossed for some thunderstorms!

[Timmy Supercell]

59 degrees, 100% humidity and holy fog! 

[Andie]

Love that fog shot!    
Dealing with dog daze in Texas I’m green with envy.  
We have a week of 100’s ahead beginning next week.  So I’m living vicariously through your fog.  

[Timmy Supercell]

5 minutes ago, Andie said:

Love that fog shot!    
Dealing with dog daze in Texas I’m green with envy.  
We have a week of 100’s ahead beginning next week.  So I’m living vicariously through your fog.  

I noticed during the warmest weather this month there was quite an absence of fog. Before today I hadn't seen any for days.

Sun is back out now and not a cloud in the sky. 

[Clinton]

Super Computers to upgrade the GFS this fall.  Great read today on Terry Swails blog.

Tuesday, NOAA inaugurated the nation’s newest weather and climate supercomputers with an operational run of the National Blend of Models. The new supercomputers provide a significant upgrade to computing capacity, storage space and interconnect speed of the nation’s Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System.

“This is a big day for NOAA and the state of weather forecasting,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Researchers are developing new ensemble-based forecast models at record speed, and now we have the computing power needed to implement many of these substantial advancements to improve weather and climate prediction.”

 

 

 

Enhanced computing and storage capacity will allow NOAA to deploy higher-resolution models to better capture small-scale features like severe thunderstorms, more realistic model physics to better capture the formation of clouds and precipitation, and a larger number of individual model simulations to better quantify model certainty. The end result is even better forecasts and warnings to support public safety and the national economy.

 

The new supercomputers will enable an upgrade to the U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) this fall and the launch of a new hurricane forecast model called the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), slated to be in operation for the 2023 hurricane season pending tests and evaluation.

 

 

[tStacsh]

.47" inches of rain overnight.    That puts me at 1.18" this month where it looks like that will end.  Dry month.  Looks like quite a warm pattern shaping up the next 10 days.  Nothing extreme, but AN for sure.   Perfect 4th weekend weather.  

[Phil]

I’m surprised how strong the Plains ridge is modeled to be over the next 10 days. This is when I’d expect some attenuation to occur but seems Mother Nature ain’t having it.

I still think we can expect a more significant trough in the Plains by mid-July? Or at least I hope so. Get some water into the ground to ease any low soil moisture feedbacks which might otherwise take hold.

Still seems we’re lined up for a p8-3 MJO/-dAAMt from late July into August which can be very nasty. Reminiscent of years such as 1980, 1988, or 1995 if that is the timing, though maybe a week or so slower this year.

[Timmy Supercell]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m surprised how strong the Plains ridge is modeled to be over the next 10 days. This is when I’d expect some attenuation to occur but seems Mother Nature ain’t having it.

I still think we can expect a more significant trough in the Plains by mid-July? Or at least I hope so. Get some water into the ground to ease any low soil moisture feedbacks which might otherwise take hold.

Still seems we’re lined up for a p8-3 MJO/-dAAMt from late July into August which can be very nasty. Reminiscent of years such as 1980, 1988, or 1995 if that is the timing, though maybe a week or so slower this year.

I remember some crazy derechos happening in 1995, upper midwest and great lakes. 

...and, Chicago heatwave. 

[Niko]

4 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

59 degrees, 100% humidity and holy fog! 

Reminds me of the "Halloween2" movie at the end, when the movie finishes. 

Nice shot!

[Niko]

Finally some hvy downpours this morning. No severe weather though. 

[Andie]

Tropical Depression off Texas coast May strengthen over the next 3-4 days.  We’ll see if it can develop strong enough to give No Tx some tropical rain.  
This is the respite we look for in summer.  Plenty of time to do it. Early days yet.  Looks like the Gulf is the place to be.  
 

3pm and 93*.  Wow.  Give me more!  
Beats the 100’s!!

[Phil]

12z EPS has a more meaningful break in the ridging now D10-15.

Maybe the hiatus is finally going to arrive.

[OttumwaSnomow]

13 hours ago, Tom said:

+ changes showing up wrt to moisture for those who have been abnormally dry as we turn our attn towards the 4th of July!  Mother Nature may be showcasing her beauty and deliver some atmospheric Fireworks for some of us in the MW on the 4th.  0z EPS has been steadily shifting the track of the short wave coming out of the N Rockies south, thus leading to a more active storm track thru IA/IL/MI during the Holiday.

What lies ahead for the 1st week of July is a bonafide "Ring of Fire" pattern for a lot of us across the Northern/Eastern Sub...NW Flow aloft is going to set up a prime time - summer time storm pattern...

 

Check out how the 0z EPS retrogrades the HP to the SW region...0z GEFS is on board also, in fact, both models are locked into the same idea that as we head into the middle part of the month it may very well get cooler for a lot of the Sub as my call for a major trough mid month sets up.

 

0z EPS...getting darn close to what I'd imagine by mid month...

 

Tom, I hope you are correct.  The long range models have dismal for my area. The short range models inevitably  always  take it away and are miles  ahead of the 4 to 10 day ones.  Im ending  June with 1.57. May was 2.82. Thats about 5 inches below avg in just 60 days.  I have planted 65 trees in 2 yrs, fruit and white pines they will be my focus.   Seems like Ottumwa  Iowa will now have major drought  maybe once every  3 to 5 yrs.  Growing  season  start was very late may 10 to 15 with soil  temps at record low levels. And by june 4th all significant  rain stopped.  A nice 20 day growing  season? Here is just one of our 170 customers. 

[Hawkeye]

Models are suggesting Monday night may have some good MCS action across Iowa.

[Tom]

10 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Tom, I hope you are correct.  The long range models have dismal for my area. The short range models inevitably  always  take it away and are miles  ahead of the 4 to 10 day ones.  Im ending  June with 1.57. May was 2.82. Thats about 5 inches below avg in just 60 days.  I have planted 65 trees in 2 yrs, fruit and white pines they will be my focus.   Seems like Ottumwa  Iowa will now have major drought  maybe once every  3 to 5 yrs.  Growing  season  start was very late may 10 to 15 with soil  temps at record low levels. And by june 4th all significant  rain stopped.  A nice 20 day growing  season? Here is just one of our 170 customers. 

Yikes, that grass looks parched!  I'm encouraged from what I'm seeing that IA will do good right around the 4th-7th period as there could very well be multiple MCS's or training storms that develop along a frontal boundary draped over the MW.

Both the 0z UKIE/EURO are suggesting a very similar pattern...

 

[Tom]

@Phil, your gonna like what the JMA weeklies are showing and lines up with everything I'm seeing in the LR and clues that have suggested for a major mid-month trough later next month.  This has some legs...I gotta good feeling we'll see the Euro Weeklies also trend this way.

Week 3-4...

Precip/Temp...while not as HOT for the Lone Star state down south, I really feel that @Andie @OKwx2k4 @Iceresistancewill be seeing a break from the intense Heat by mid July, esp later in the month.

 

 

[westMJim]

06/30/2022

Yesterday with a official H/L of 83/61 was one of the rare days that was exactly average. There was a official rain fall amount of 0.53” and that brought the June total to 1.42” and that means this June will now be just the 14^th driest in Grand Rapids recorded history. The was 53% of possible sunshine yesterday. For today the average H/L is 83/62. The record high of 99 was in 1931 and the record low of 40 was in 1943. The overnight low in MBY was 63 and at the current time it is cloudy and 65. The next week looks to see rather typical summer weather with hit and miss showers. The days should be warm but with low DP’s the nights look to be comfortable.

[Timmy Supercell]

On 6/29/2022 at 8:08 AM, Timmy Supercell said:

59 degrees, 100% humidity and holy fog! 

None of that this morning. But possibly some of the more rural parts of the state had some.

Straight clear and hotter today. 

[Hawkeye]

My June rain total is 4.92".  Much of that fell at the beginning and end of the month.

[Timmy Supercell]

Summer is really REALLY here now. Look at all that lightning.

Oh and @Phil, now we got 2 kinds of cicadas going off. Heard a different one at 9-10am while clearing piles of yard debris around here.

[OttumwaSnomow]

34 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Summer is really REALLY here now. Look at all that lightning.

Oh and @Phil, now we got 2 kinds of cicadas going off. Heard a different one at 9-10am while clearing piles of yard debris around here.

I have barely heard lightning  more than maybe 2 times.  Not a single  real thunderstorm.  We did get a warning from slight wind on a gust front.  Doesn't  even seem like im in the Midwest.   Pretty  much just sun and endless wind.  6 days of 90f. No upper 90s at all.  I can get extremely  boring here.

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I have barely heard lightning  more than maybe 2 times.  Not a single  real thunderstorm.  We did get a warning from slight wind on a gust front.  Doesn't  even seem like im in the Midwest.   Pretty  much just sun and endless wind.  6 days of 90f. No upper 90s at all.  I can get extremely  boring here.

Is Iowa normally that dry? Crazy difference in climates. I'm racking up the thunder days and I think July/August will double what I have logged currently.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Summer is really REALLY here now. Look at all that lightning.

Oh and @Phil, now we got 2 kinds of cicadas going off. Heard a different one at 9-10am while clearing piles of yard debris around here.

U can do through the cicada songs here (bottom left menu) to determine which one it is: http://songsofinsects.com/katydids/common-true-katydid

Haven’t heard any cicadas here since that loner in mid-June. Makes sense though, since mid-June is very early for them (2nd earliest I can remember, actually).

[Timmy Supercell]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

U can do through the cicada songs here (bottom left menu) to determine which one it is: http://songsofinsects.com/katydids/common-true-katydid

Haven’t heard any cicadas here since that loner in mid-June. Makes sense though, since mid-June is very early for them (2nd earliest I can remember, actually).

There's still the scissor grinder cicada every evening at a certain twilight (between 8:40-9:00pm), there hasn't been one evening I didn't hear it!

Thanks for the link

[Phil]

29 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Is Iowa normally that dry? Crazy difference in climates. I'm racking up the thunder days and I think July/August will double what I have logged currently.

Ur just getting started, friend.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

U can do through the cicada songs here (bottom left menu) to determine which one it is: http://songsofinsects.com/katydids/common-true-katydid

Haven’t heard any cicadas here since that loner in mid-June. Makes sense though, since mid-June is very early for them (2nd earliest I can remember, actually).

Sounds like the Swamp Cicada is the one I heard earlier. And as described, can be heard in the morning through noon.

I sampled all the cicadas and I'm pretty sure when I lived in Klamath Falls I heard the Hieroglyphic Cicada. Or is there one related but not listed on that link? Maybe one migrated to southern Oregon and just liked my place. None of the other audio samples had anything that similarly high-pitched. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

57 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Is Iowa normally that dry? Crazy difference in climates. I'm racking up the thunder days and I think July/August will double what I have logged currently.

Varies wildly here summer to summer. One  friend few miles from me had 17 inches june 2021(12 in in one night) and this june he has 1 inch. Typically  may and june is quite stormy on occasion  ive seen 5 thunderstorms  in one day here! Once it hailed on 4 occasions  same day.  But as far as severe when we get locked  under these  ridges  feels like Im in Mali Africa!

[Phil]

20 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Sounds like the Swamp Cicada is the one I heard earlier. And as described, can be heard in the morning through noon.

I sampled all the cicadas and I'm pretty sure when I lived in Klamath Falls I heard the Hieroglyphic Cicada. Or is there one related but not listed on that link? Maybe one migrated to southern Oregon and just liked my place. None of the other audio samples had anything that similarly high-pitched. 

Yeah that’s only the eastern cicadas. There are plenty of western species. They tend to be less loud/numerous but they def exist.

Here’s a site that includes cicada species in the western areas.

https://www.cicadamania.com/cicadas/common-cicadas-of-north-america/

[tStacsh]

AN for the foreseeable future with not a lot of rain here in SMI.  Despite the constant "signs" in the long range for cooler rainier pattern.  Just doesn't happen.  Even the GFS has warmed significantly and that model absolutely notorious for underplaying warmth in the long range.   It's gonna be a very Hot July compared to normal.  

[Phil]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

AN for the foreseeable future with not a lot of rain here in SMI.  Despite the constant "signs" in the long range for cooler rainier pattern.  Just doesn't happen.  Even the GFS has warmed significantly and that model absolutely notorious for underplaying warmth in the long range.   It's gonna be a very Hot July compared to normal.  

I’m still betting there will be a break in the heat.

The MJO will be over the West-Pacific and Maritime Continent for the next 2-3 weeks. Historically that favors troughing over the Plains.

But I agree late July and August look hellish. Note how large scale subsidence envelopes the dateline/WPAC domain, circled in black. That right there is a big time heat signal during mid/late summer.

[Clinton]

I reach a high of 93 today but it was tolerable with only 31% humidity and dewpoints in the mid 50s.  Not a bad way to close out June, now let's start July with some rain.

[OKwx2k4]

13 hours ago, Tom said:

@Phil, your gonna like what the JMA weeklies are showing and lines up with everything I'm seeing in the LR and clues that have suggested for a major mid-month trough later next month.  This has some legs...I gotta good feeling we'll see the Euro Weeklies also trend this way.

Week 3-4...

Precip/Temp...while not as HOT for the Lone Star state down south, I really feel that @Andie @OKwx2k4 @Iceresistancewill be seeing a break from the intense Heat by mid July, esp later in the month.

 

 

I think Andie is going to be right on the drought edge and has been holding down that spot for a good bit. I think what we will see happen in July should give her a lot of hope and keep the super heat fluctuating.

The war zone between the Gulf and some continental out of season cool air are going to make for some fun and hope for all of us east of death valley by autumn. West TX has hope soon enough.

Primary thoughts here are towards food and farmers. I know a lot have recovered in recent years and helped others as much only to turn around  face more worries of a different kind. 

[Andie]

Nothing would make me happier than to see tropical clouds creeping northward into North Texas.  
It’s so dry.  
 

I’m waiting ……..

[Timmy Supercell]

93/61 today.. Tonight will be warmer, but at least some of the highs ease a few degrees on the forecast going forward. If I'm lucky, today was the hottest day through mid-July. 

Some cicada audio! Had to do several takes so that there was nothing else interrupting the focus.. like cars, dogs, kids. 

[Phil]

22 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

93/61 today.. Tonight will be warmer, but at least some of the highs ease a few degrees on the forecast going forward. If I'm lucky, today was the hottest day through mid-July. 

Some cicada audio! Had to do several takes so that there was nothing else interrupting the focus.. like cars, dogs, kids. 

 

Yup that’s a scissor grinder. Will be hearing a lot more soon!

I took this video in August back in 2018. This is what it’s gonna sound like in late summer:

 

[Andie]

Cool.  You know we used to hear that a lot in summer.   
Now not so much. 
Could it be pesticides? 

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yup that’s a scissor grinder. Will be hearing a lot more soon!

I took this video in August back in 2018. This is what it’s gonna sound like in late summer:

 

There's 3 or 4 kinds going off simultaneously! 

[Phil]

Just now, Andie said:

Cool.  You know we used to hear that a lot in summer.   
Now not so much. 
Could it be pesticides? 

Pesticides aren’t really effective against Cicadas. They live underground for years and have above-ground lifespans of only a few weeks.

The removal of trees and urbanization might be factors. Or differences in weather conditions.

[hawkstwelve]

A final look at some June numbers...

High temp: 101 on 6/13

Low temp: 48 on 6/27

Average temp: 72 (same as normal)

Precip: 1.37 inches (-1.97 from normal)

We had highs 90+ for eleven days of the month, which to me seems like a lot. We are definitely not used to that kind of consistent heat after living in the always-refreshing air of the PNW. I do love the general warmth though with the occasional 70+ degree night and it's pretty regularly sunny which is also a big plus. Worth noting thunderstorms weren't nearly as frequent this month as they were in May.

Overall a fairly non-descript month besides the heat. On to see what July brings!

[Phil]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

A final look at some June numbers...

High temp: 101 on 6/13

Low temp: 48 on 6/27

Average temp: 72 (same as normal)

Precip: 1.37 inches (-1.97 from normal)

We had highs 90+ for eleven days of the month, which to me seems like a lot. We are definitely not used to that kind of consistent heat after living in the always-refreshing air of the PNW. I do love the general warmth though with the occasional 70+ degree night and it's pretty regularly sunny which is also a big plus. Worth noting thunderstorms weren't nearly as frequent this month as they were in May.

Overall a fairly non-descript month besides the heat. On to see what July brings!

At least you get plenty of breaks from the heat up there.

[Phil]

Was a dry day in the 90s with dews in the 50s, so relatively comfortable, but the humidity has surged back in tonight with dews rising into the 70s. Wind has gone completely calm so it feels more stagnant.

[Tom]

4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

A final look at some June numbers...

High temp: 101 on 6/13

Low temp: 48 on 6/27

Average temp: 72 (same as normal)

Precip: 1.37 inches (-1.97 from normal)

We had highs 90+ for eleven days of the month, which to me seems like a lot. We are definitely not used to that kind of consistent heat after living in the always-refreshing air of the PNW. I do love the general warmth though with the occasional 70+ degree night and it's pretty regularly sunny which is also a big plus. Worth noting thunderstorms weren't nearly as frequent this month as they were in May.

Overall a fairly non-descript month besides the heat. On to see what July brings!

Regarding the bolded, have you noticed your mood has changed for the better since moving?  I talked to people who lived/worked in the PNW and how incredibly difficult it can be to have an upbeat mood due to the cloudy nature of the wx pattern in the Autumn/Winter months.

[Phil]

No two ways about it..June sucked.

Finished much drier than average here, almost all of the monthly rain (~ 2.9”) fell on 1 night. In total 27/30 days had no rain at all here.

[Timmy Supercell]

June didn't seem like my wettest month in Ashland. Even though it was my stormiest month of the year so far. The most thunders as well as the highest frequency of lightning. Possibly in some localized spots June came up there on precipitation. 

I grabbed monthly totals from the nearest city with the most up to date numbers and data is not so sketchy. Right now Ashland only goes out through April.. This list is from Huntington Tri-State Airport in West Virginia.

Jan: 4.97"
Feb: 5.75"
Mar: 3.25"
Apr: 3.21"
May: 4.70"
June: 3.15"

June turned out to be the driest, even though every month had above average figures. I read the winter is not supposed to be one of the wetter seasons. January and February both make top 2 at HTS. 

You never know what weather brings from year to year. I didn't have my first t'storm until March.. so that is a lot of regular rainfall I guess this area isn't used to seeing. 

[Tom]

8 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

93/61 today.. Tonight will be warmer, but at least some of the highs ease a few degrees on the forecast going forward. If I'm lucky, today was the hottest day through mid-July. 

Some cicada audio! Had to do several takes so that there was nothing else interrupting the focus.. like cars, dogs, kids. 

 

Those are the kind I hear around here but none so far this year. As @Phil mentioned, it’ll prob be later in the season.

[Timmy Supercell]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

No two ways about it..June sucked.

Finished much drier than average here, almost all of the monthly rain (~ 2.9”) fell on 1 night. In total 27/30 days had no rain at all here.

I'm curious what Dec 1 - Feb 28 looks like on this map. December may have torched but we had some very wet storms here in Ashland. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

No two ways about it..June sucked.

Finished much drier than average here, almost all of the monthly rain (~ 2.9”) fell on 1 night. In total 27/30 days had no rain at all here.

Nice map. I only wish these govt agencies and others  would realize  that almost 10% of Caucasian  American men are color blind.   Green, red issues  mainly.  Some of the other colors would be better