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June 2022 Observations and Discussion


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40 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’d be careful with the CFS, it seems to have some kind of bug/problem in handling latent heat exchange through the subpolar oceans.

This SSTA projection makes no sense at all. Results in a very moist/+TNH type look in 2m temps which is likely to be erroneous.

6C1F46E9-4B09-4F5A-A7B5-D82A295CE48B.gif

 

Good points...my comments were just based on recent trends and my personal gut feeling.  I will say, the CanSIPS model trended much colder for the central and northern U.S. for June.

image.gif

 

 

Same for July...

image.gif

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 77/58 there was a reported trace of rain fall and there was 60% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here at my house was 55 and the current temperature is 58 with some sun. For today the average H/L is 76/55 The record high is 95 set in 1934 and the record low is 35 set in 1956. Last year the H/L was 78/50. The H/L in the foreseeable future are in the upper 60’s to low 70’s with lows in the low to mid 50’s  the highs are several degrees below average and are more in line with Pellston some 200 miles to the north.

 

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Lots of lightning and such but all I got out of it was a trace of rain and a power outage.  
 

Currently Cloudy, 66 nice degrees. 
High today of 80*.  Not bad. 🤗
 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Further south we have 1 more day in the 80’s then we barrel into the 90’s.  
Breaks over, back on your head!!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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12 minutes ago, Andie said:

Further south we have 1 more day in the 80’s then we barrel into the 90’s.  
Breaks over, back on your head!!

NWS-Norman forecasting another cooldown later next week.

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

NWS-Norman forecasting another cooldown later next week.

We’re currently 84. Really nice evening. Low humidity. 
Our local Mets  say one more day in the 80’s then mid 90’s. They’re usually pretty close.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Second severe-criteria storm of the summer this afternoon.

Winds were probably at/above 60mph, albeit briefly. Basically whiteout conditions with sideways rain/mist whipping around. Somehow water started pouring into our fireplace out-cove, must have a problem with the masonry there.

Had multiple rounds of convection today, but that storm was the highlight of the day.

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15 hours ago, Tom said:

Good points...my comments were just based on recent trends and my personal gut feeling.  I will say, the CanSIPS model trended much colder for the central and northern U.S. for June.

image.gif

 

 

Same for July...

image.gif

I’ve noticed seasonal guidance tends to over-heat the western high terrain. Could be some kind of spurious feedback there. 

I do think -PNA will be the dominant EOF this summer (troughing in the West/Northwest, basically classical La Niña). Can’t really find anything to suggest otherwise?

I suspect it will be increasingly difficult to get deep troughing into the eastern half of the country as summer rolls on, but I wouldn’t mind being wrong about that.

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8 hours ago, Phil said:

I’ve noticed seasonal guidance tends to over-heat the western high terrain. Could be some kind of spurious feedback there. 

I do think -PNA will be the dominant EOF this summer (troughing in the West/Northwest, basically classical La Niña). Can’t really find anything to suggest otherwise?

I suspect it will be increasingly difficult to get deep troughing into the eastern half of the country as summer rolls on, but I wouldn’t mind being wrong about that.

IMHO, the blocking is going to remain strong this summer and for those of us up across the northern half of the Sub should remain near normal temp wise, if not, BN temps when all sudden done.  I got a gut feeling around the GL's/MW its going to be a cooler/wetter summer overall.  It's prob going to be one of those rare summers where we could see widespread cooler temps.  Something similar to 2009?  It was very wet across the MW/Plains and very cool to even chilly.

JJA09PDeptUS.png

 

JJA09TDeptUS.png

 

Look how close the CFSV2 is suggesting the next 30 days compares to overall temp pattern that summer...July/Aug pretty much mirror the same theme and keep the S Plains/TX/SW in the Heat.

image.png

 

@Phil, your going to like the latest Euro Weeklies....its def cooling temps your way and the culprit is the NE Canadian Block/Greenland Block.  On a side note, I like how the model is seeing the Monsoon start up late June into early July for the SW.  The CFSv2 also agrees in this idea of a wet start to the Monsoon.  Interesting data to digest for sure.

1.gif

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 74/55 the mean for the day was at average. There was no rain fall and there was 86% of possible sunshine. The overnight low both here at my house and officially at GRR was 50. At this time with clouds overhead and clear skies to the NW it is 57. For today the average H/L is 76/55 the record high of 96 was set in 1934 the record low of 38 was set in several years with the last time being 1986. Last year the H/L was 85/51. The latest run of the CFSv2 has the rest of June being below average temperature wise and at times wetter than average. 
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/
So bottom line is a cool start to the summer.

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Texas is in the heat and dry.  It would be nice to see some more rain before diving into a High Pressure zone, however….

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

IMHO, the blocking is going to remain strong this summer and for those of us up across the northern half of the Sub should remain near normal temp wise, if not, BN temps when all sudden done.  I got a gut feeling around the GL's/MW its going to be a cooler/wetter summer overall.  It's prob going to be one of those rare summers where we could see widespread cooler temps.  Something similar to 2009?  It was very wet across the MW/Plains and very cool to even chilly.

JJA09PDeptUS.png

 

JJA09TDeptUS.png

 

Look how close the CFSV2 is suggesting the next 30 days compares to overall temp pattern that summer...July/Aug pretty much mirror the same theme and keep the S Plains/TX/SW in the Heat.

image.png

 

@Phil, your going to like the latest Euro Weeklies....its def cooling temps your way and the culprit is the NE Canadian Block/Greenland Block.  On a side note, I like how the model is seeing the Monsoon start up late June into early July for the SW.  The CFSv2 also agrees in this idea of a wet start to the Monsoon.  Interesting data to digest for sure.

1.gif

Looks like summer 2009 was stormy in KY ;)

When I lived in Hillsboro, OR that year there was an impressive heatwave in July '09, it hit 106 degrees one day. That is still currently the hottest temperature I've ever experienced. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Those rains in the bread/corn/grainbasket are an answered prayer. I know a lot up there are in a recovery mode of sorts from drpught, etc, but such a welcome blessing to see models in the short term for our region.

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1 hour ago, Andie said:

Texas is in the heat and dry.  It would be nice to see some more rain before diving into a High Pressure zone, however….

Going to be iffy for you. You'll be hoping for so.e tropical moisture by end of June, possibly. 

Personal belief is that the drought/ridge complex is pushed west thru time. May be wrong, but its held so far. 

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

IMHO, the blocking is going to remain strong this summer and for those of us up across the northern half of the Sub should remain near normal temp wise, if not, BN temps when all sudden done.  I got a gut feeling around the GL's/MW its going to be a cooler/wetter summer overall.  It's prob going to be one of those rare summers where we could see widespread cooler temps.  Something similar to 2009?  It was very wet across the MW/Plains and very cool to even chilly.

JJA09PDeptUS.png

 

JJA09TDeptUS.png

 

Look how close the CFSV2 is suggesting the next 30 days compares to overall temp pattern that summer...July/Aug pretty much mirror the same theme and keep the S Plains/TX/SW in the Heat.

image.png

 

@Phil, your going to like the latest Euro Weeklies....its def cooling temps your way and the culprit is the NE Canadian Block/Greenland Block.  On a side note, I like how the model is seeing the Monsoon start up late June into early July for the SW.  The CFSv2 also agrees in this idea of a wet start to the Monsoon.  Interesting data to digest for sure.

1.gif

Hey, I hope you’re right. Would love another 2009. Those are a rare breed of summer that come around only a few times per decade.

However, those cool summers tend to happen during transitions into El Niño (which affects tropical convection in a way that favors cooler weather in the east).

Instead we have one of the strongest warm season La Niñas on record. With tropical forcing reflecting that.

The next 7-10 days do look coolish/changeable which makes sense given the MJO p8 transit, but I don’t believe it will last. But we’ll see! I’ve been wrong before. 🍻 

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Gorgeous weather we are having today w/ plentiful sunshine.Temps are in the very comfy 70s. Cannot get any better than this. Lows tanite into the brrrr 40s.

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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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36 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hey, I hope you’re right. Would love another 2009. Those are a rare breed of summer that come around only a few times per decade.

However, those cool summers tend to happen during transitions into El Niño (which affects tropical convection in a way that favors cooler weather in the east).

Instead we have one of the strongest warm season La Niñas on record. With tropical forcing reflecting that.

The next 7-10 days do look coolish/changeable which makes sense given the MJO p8 transit, but I don’t believe it will last. But we’ll see! I’ve been wrong before. 🍻 

Warmest high on the 10 day here is 85, and we enter mid-June in the 70's! Next week should feature some good storms. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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35 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Warmest high on the 10 day here is 85, and we enter mid-June in the 70's! Next week should feature some good storms. 

We had a good one here yesterday. Was like a giant blender of wind and rain.

You’re way overdue to score a real storm. We’re finally getting some action here after a lackluster start, I’m sure you’re next.

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We had the windiest Spring in North Texas in a very long time.  Really unpleasant.  Winds are still an issue though not at the roaring stage.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

We had a good one here yesterday. Was like a giant blender of wind and rain.

You’re way overdue to score a real storm. We’re finally getting some action here after a lackluster start, I’m sure you’re next.

Eastern KY has had severe storms, we just need to pop the one bubble that is over this little corner. 

Had close lightning on 5/21, but no hail or wind strong enough to take a tree limb. 

I think the NWS Jackson office has been in 2 Severe Thunderstorm warnings on 2 separate occasions. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Warmest high on the 10 day here is 85, and we enter mid-June in the 70's! Next week should feature some good storms. 

Enjoy it, man. Next 10 days might be the nicest weather you’ll experience until mid/late September.

Only ~ 5 weeks until the cicadas start singing from the trees, and the nights are swarming with mosquitos. 🤮 

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Looks like we received 0.33” of rain in 2 minutes yesterday. Total of 1.42” for the afternoon.

After a dry winter/spring, we’ve received more than 6” of rain over the last 5 weeks. Hugely beneficial.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Enjoy it, man. Next 10 days might be the nicest weather you’ll experience until mid/late September.

Only ~ 5 weeks until the cicadas start singing from the trees, and the nights are swarming with mosquitos. 🤮 

I thought the cicadas would make an appearance by now. We've already had a few lows close to 70. 

I can't imagine not having AC in the eastern US. It should be law out here that homes have it. ;) 

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I thought the cicadas would make an appearance by now. We've already had a few lows close to 70. 

I can't imagine not having AC in the eastern US. It should be law out here that homes have it. ;) 

The annual cicadas don’t start singing until late June. At first it’s just one or two “scissor grinder” cicadas singing in the evenings, very sparse. Picks up through July, with more daytime singing and swamp cicadas chorusing in the morning as well. By August it’s a constant chorus, from dawn to dusk.

You’ll also hear katydids and crickets at night starting in early/mid July. Those b*tches are loud as heck. You’ll be missing the quiet nights soon enough. :lol: 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

The annual cicadas don’t start singing until late June. At first it’s just one or two “scissor grinder” cicadas singing in the evenings, very sparse. Picks up through July, with more daytime singing and swamp cicadas chorusing in the morning as well. By August it’s a constant chorus, from dawn to dusk.

You’ll also hear katydids and crickets at night starting in early/mid July. Those b*tches are loud as heck. You’ll be missing the quiet nights soon enough. :lol: 

I was kind of hoping the indoor crickets would chirp too so I know where to find one. Instead... (watch your feet!) 😜

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I was kind of hoping the indoor crickets would chirp too so I know where to find one. Instead... (watch your feet!) 😜

Lmao. Those buggers will find their way inside your walls and ducts. You’ll prob never see them but will definitely hear them. 😂

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7 hours ago, Phil said:

The annual cicadas don’t start singing until late June. At first it’s just one or two “scissor grinder” cicadas singing in the evenings, very sparse. Picks up through July, with more daytime singing and swamp cicadas chorusing in the morning as well. By August it’s a constant chorus, from dawn to dusk.

You’ll also hear katydids and crickets at night starting in early/mid July. Those b*tches are loud as heck. You’ll be missing the quiet nights soon enough. :lol: 

Mockingbirds sing all night too, but mainly in the spring when you must throw objects in the trees to get a good night's sleep. 

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It was an absolutely gorgeous day yesterday...it literally felt like I was in the valley of PHX, but without the green vegetation.  We had pristine blue skies pretty much all day long with very low DP's/Humidity levels...in fact, ORD tied a record low humidity level for the month of June.  That's an interesting stat to reach in what is usually a wet month.

 

image.png

 

 

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The following work week looks active and wet across the majority of our C/S Sub...quite the cut-off from N/S across the IA/MN border per the 0z Euro...

3.png

 

Not quite with the 0z GFS...

gfs_apcpn_us_28.png

 

Next weekend will feature a +PNA pattern which usually sets up a NW Flow Pattern and that is what will happen.  Unusually chilly air will be draped across our entire Sub, all awhile, a Monster 591dm SW Ridge fires up insane Heat for the SW.  This is brutal heat and likely will prompt Heat Warnings for next weekend.

image.png

 

image.png

 

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Is there relief heading for the SW/4 corners???  Hang in there, bc it appears that nature is getting the "cue" to fire up the Monsoon like clockwork.  The official start to the Monsoon is June 15th and wouldn't ya know it, the models are hinting at this signal!  #awesomeness

image.gif

 

 

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Yesterdays official H/L at Grand Rapids was 76/50 there was a trace of rain fall early in the day. The clouds broke up and there was 85% of possible sunshine. The overnight low both here at my house and officially at GRR was 47. The average H/L for today is 76/55 the record high is 93 set in 1925 and the record low is 32 set in 1945. That is the latest last low of 32 at Grand Rapids. Last year the H/L was 87/64 and that was the start of a 10-day period of much above average days. There were 7 days with highs in the upper 80’s and 2 with highs of 90. Lows were in the mid to upper 60’s.

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12 hours ago, Thunder98 said:

Lol there's a frost advisory tonight in Northern WI and parts of MI

In northern Lower Michigan some lows last this morning (June 4th) were Grayling 28, Cadillac 33 Pellston 31. It was much warmer here at my house with 47. 

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Next 10 days look beautiful here. Low/mid 80s with comfortable dewpoints in the 50s/60s. Multiple chances at convection as well.

Gonna enjoy this while it lasts. Tropical forcing begins its return to the E-Hem mid-month, likely culminating in a hot/nasty pattern for much of the central and eastern US.

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On 6/1/2022 at 8:59 PM, CentralNebWeather said:

Low down to 44 tonight. Is this really June?  

LNK recorded a low of 42 Thursday morning which broke the daily record of 43 and only 3 short of the monthly record. Can probably add at least 5 degrees for non-airport areas of the city. Definitely want to get another PWS once I live somewhere more permanent. I loved having one back in high school with my parents. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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