June 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

The JMA weeklies came in a couple hours ago and suggest a timely and active start to the Monsoon season in the SW....

 

 

What about temps?  Pretty good looking temp forecast for the eastern CONUS...aside for a stripe of AN Temps from N to S from the Upper MW down to TX, the rest of the SUB looks seasonal...

 

 

Meanwhile, here is the new Euro Seasonal forecast for JUNE...

 

 

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 65/49 there was officially 0.32" of rain fall reported at the airport. There was just 1% of possible sunshine. Here at my house I recorded 0.44" of rain fall. That high of 65 was the 7th coolest reading for a high for any June 8th at Grand Rapids and the coolest since 1995. The overnight low both here at my house and officially at GRR was 51. For today the average H/L is 78/57 the record high is 93 set in 2020 and 1964 the record low is 37 set in 1969. At the current time it is clear and 54 here at my house.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Highs have officially been bumped up for next Monday now.

Current forecast would tie the record.

[Phil]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

The JMA weeklies came in a couple hours ago and suggest a timely and active start to the Monsoon season in the SW....

 

 

What about temps?  Pretty good looking temp forecast for the eastern CONUS...aside for a stripe of AN Temps from N to S from the Upper MW down to TX, the rest of the SUB looks seasonal...

 

 

Meanwhile, here is the new Euro Seasonal forecast for JUNE...

 

 

 

That Euro monthly projection for June might be skewed by its initialization during a cool pattern. Many of the ensemble members had not picked up on the change in tropical forcing (some of it seasonal/monsoonal, some of it MJO related).

I suspect the end result will be warmer across the CONUS. Though possibly not everywhere (the West may end up cooler).

[Phil]

Downsloping flow scoured out the humidity nicely this AM. Dewpoints dropped from around 70 to the mid-50s in a flash. Turning out to be a beautiful day with almost full sunshine and highs in the low/mid 80s.

Weather looks fantastic for the rest of the week, before a more summer-like pattern begins next week. Will have to see if there is any backdoor cooling here east of the apps, which might offer some relief and/or delay the really nasty stuff.

[Clinton]

Beautiful day off work today, temps are in the 70s.  The family and I are hitting a few antique shops in Warrensburg. 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Summer arrives this weekend. 92 Saturday, 94 Sunday, 102 Monday.  Yuck. 

[Phil]

33 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Summer arrives this weekend. 92 Saturday, 94 Sunday, 102 Monday.  Yuck. 

Yeah looks like this weekend marks the seasonal transition. And the hot pattern will probably stick around for awhile given the state of the MJO/tropical forcing and AAM bottoming out.

Gonna cherish these next few days.

[Andie]

Tomorrow 100*
Saturday 101*
Sunday103*
Monday 100*
 

Yup! It’s hot. Going to get hotter. 
As a native Texan I still hate it. Way too early for this heat!! 
 

Why??  What is going on??

When will it go back to normal?

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Andie said:

Tomorrow 100*
Saturday 101*
Sunday103*
Monday 100*
 

Yup! It’s hot. Going to get hotter. 
As a native Texan I still hate it. Way too early for this heat!! 
 

Why??  What is going on??

La Niña/E-Hem focused tropical convection, and low AAM. It’s a background state that favors heat/ridging over much of the CONUS.

Of course there’ll be some breaks up north. But down there in TX it’s probably going to be a long, hot summer.

[Phil]

Precipitation anomalies over the next 46 days.  

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, Andie said:

Tomorrow 100*
Saturday 101*
Sunday103*
Monday 100*
 

Yup! It’s hot. Going to get hotter. 
As a native Texan I still hate it. Way too early for this heat!! 
 

Why??  What is going on??

When will it go back to normal?

It's going to be dangerously close to 100 on Sunday for my area (99°F to be exact), it's too early for this! (Wichita Falls, TX is expected to reach 107°F on the same day) But my Teacher (I'm a helper for her) LOVES the heat that is coming. And I really don't!

I'm under a Flood Watch for a LOT of storms for tonight and into Tomorrow.

[Andie]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

It's going to be dangerously close to 100 on Sunday for my area (99°F to be exact), it's too early for this! (Wichita Falls, TX is expected to reach 107°F on the same day) But my Teacher (I'm a helper for her) LOVES the heat that is coming. And I really don't!

I'm under a Flood Watch for a LOT of storms for tonight and into Tomorrow.

Tell her to come down here!!!  She can do my yard work.  I’ll supply the gator aid!! Then we’ll see how keen she is on heat!

I’m already sick of it!!!

Send some of that rain!

[Hawkeye]

The possible rain event tonight into Friday morning is vanishing from the models.

I hate seeing that very dry 46-day Euro.  Dry summers suck.  I want storms and heavy rain.

[CentralNebWeather]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 5 in the last 6 days. Unheard of. Hope for more rain as the faucet is about to be shut off. Going to be a hot summer. Hopefully not dry, we’ll see. 

 

[snowstorm83]

9 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Highs have officially been bumped up for next Monday now.

Current forecast would tie the record.

Summer is cancelled bye, let's try winter again since it didn't occur last year 

[Tom]

I don't mind the heat thats coming to our area next Tue-Wed bc it appears it'll be a short 2 day (maybe 3) window of good heat/humidity.  After this period, we will have a short respite of relief the following weekend before another surge of possible Heat up towards the E MW/GL's region right before the official start of the Summer Solstice on the 21st. 

What happens next is something that should shift the overall pattern across the GL's/MW region towards a seasonal to BN temp pattern.  I'm seeing all the signs point towards ridging out across W NAMER (-EPO)/Greenland to close out June and open July.  The Monsoon is going to Fire up, the south will remain Toasty, but the N & E Sub should be rather pleasant during the heart of the Summer season when avg temps peak.  Man, if the Euro Weeklies are right....what Summer in the GL's?   @Madtownand those who live closer to the lakes....

 

Edit: This is the 4th run in a row suggesting a similar pattern as we close out June and head into July...

 

I don't buy the dry Euro Weeklies....they always have a tendency to get wetter as we get closer in time.  CFSv2 is a much better LR model IMHO....as is the JMA...Happy Friday everyone!

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 72/51 There was a reported 0.01” of rain fall. And GR had 77% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here at my house was 50. At the current time with sunny skies, it is 61. For today the average H/L is  78/57 the record high of 93 was set in 1933 and 1996 the record low of 36 was set in 1980. June 2022 has been off to a cool start all across Michigan. Here are some of the mean temperatures and departures across southern lower Michigan. At Grand Rapids the mean of 62.8 that is a departure of -3.2. At Holland the mean is 61.1 that is a departure of -4.1 at Muskegon the mean is 60.7 that is a departure of -3.9. To the east at Detroit the mean there is 65.6 for a departure of -1.4. At Flint the mean is 61.6 for a departure of -2.6 at Saginaw the mean of 63.1 is a departure of -2.2. Across northern lower and the UP Alpena, Houghton Lake, The Sault and Marquette are all below average so far. The only location that has a mean above average so far this June is Lansing with a mean of 65.6 for a departure of +0.4. I guess there must be a lot of hot air in Lansing.

 

[hawkstwelve]

Per the 00z Euro, of the next 10 days only two will be under the 80 degree mark for FSD... Today's high of 75 and next Wednesday's of 78. Otherwise, it's 80s and 90s for the foreseeable future.

Our average temp through the first 10 days of June is 63.6 which is good for a -6.3 departure from normal. A pretty dang chilly start to June. I'm ready for some summertime warmth. 

[Andie]

26 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Per the 00z Euro, of the next 10 days only two will be under the 80 degree mark for FSD... Today's high of 75 and next Wednesday's of 78. Otherwise, it's 80s and 90s for the foreseeable future.

Our average temp through the first 10 days of June is 63.6 which is good for a -6.3 departure from normal. A pretty dang chilly start to June. I'm ready for some summertime warmth. 

We’ll be happy to share down south.   100*+ temps.  Having a/c checked today so it survives this summer.  
Everyone’s holding their breath around here.  

[Clinton]

Ugly forecast for next week.

[CentralNebWeather]

Here is an agricultural meteorologist that my farmer friend shared with me a few months back. He posts 2 videos a week. Very informative. He is getting concerned about heat and a coming drought. Here is the link. 

 

[Andie]

Hot weekend ahead.  Everyone’s hoping their a/c will hold up.  

The hottest I recall in DFW area was 113*.  With our humidity that was seriously dangerous.   
100-103* is like, “So?”  

What makes it noteworthy is it’s barely mid June. Very odd and many are asking what’s the rest of our summer going to look like, besides hot.  
 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

7 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Per the 00z Euro, of the next 10 days only two will be under the 80 degree mark for FSD... Today's high of 75 and next Wednesday's of 78. Otherwise, it's 80s and 90s for the foreseeable future.

Our average temp through the first 10 days of June is 63.6 which is good for a -6.3 departure from normal. A pretty dang chilly start to June. I'm ready for some summertime warmth. 

With all the severe wx I figured you might have started June a bit warmer than that. These last couple days here in KY will probably be my coolest point of the month. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Today is a good example of localized convection. These showers are just far north enough that its only lightly rained at the airport observations. Here I just had a 15 minute long waterfall at the house. 

[hawkstwelve]

37 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

With all the severe wx I figured you might have started June a bit warmer than that. These last couple days here in KY will probably be my coolest point of the month. 

Our severe weather blitz pretty much ended with the turn of the calendar to June. May was really active but these first 10 days of June have been much, much quieter. It's actually been channeling the typical PNW weather with cloudy skies, sprinkles, and cooler temps most days. 

Certainly not terrible by any stretch of the imagination, but not very summerlike either. 

[Timmy Supercell]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Our severe weather blitz pretty much ended with the turn of the calendar to June. May was really active but these first 10 days of June have been much, much quieter. It's actually been channeling the typical PNW weather with cloudy skies, sprinkles, and cooler temps most days. 

Certainly not terrible by any stretch of the imagination, but not very summerlike either. 

Enjoy this before it gets hotter. Here I haven't had a lot of 90+ days myself up to now, but that number will start climbing. Most of the Spring was cool as well, up until we got to the last couple weeks of the season. 

[Phil]

Man, I don’t see any prolonged cooldown over the CONUS anytime soon with convection getting “stuck” in the IO/EHEM.

This VP200 configuration doesn’t match any of the “cool” summers we’ve had in the satellite era. Just brutal.

[CentralNebWeather]

98 and humid on Sunday and 104 on Monday, potential record high. Not ready for this junk yet. 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Tom]

Did the GFS just score a coupe for next weekend from the GL's and points East?  It's def trending that way with Euro Op as it's picking up on a nice CF sweeping through Fri into Sat, although, it pushes the central Plains ridge a bit to fast on Sun.  There are some good signals for storms to fire up Tue-Thu across NE/IA and then E towards the GL's along the CF.  This could be a solid severe wx threat.  The models are pressing the CF farther south....I remember it was farther N over S Dakota just a few days ago but now the threat is trending South.

0z EPS...

 

0z EPS also seeing the Blocking near Greenland/Canada and the -EPO right as we welcome the Summer Solstice.  The result is the continuation of cooler trends, esp in and near the Upper MW/GL's and East.  Keep it going.

[Tom]

PHX smashed a record high yesterday of 113F (111F old record)...

[Clinton]

Warm and humid day today with highs near 90.  Slight risk of severe weather tonight, the Fv3 shows a nice hit of rain for western Missouri. 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 77/50 there was no rain fall and there was 72% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here at my house was 54 and at this time it is clear and 55. For today the average H/L is 78/57 the record high of 93 was set in 1933 and 1956 the record low was a cool and frosty? 33 in 1972. Last year the high was 90 and the low was 68.

[Andie]

Starting the day at 78. 
We’ll top out each day at 103 !  Dangerously hot conditions.  
 

These are not the summers I grew up with.  They’ve become more intense and this year the 100’s hit sooner.  
 

update:  I’m running across forecasts for as high as 105 this weekend.  Some ventured with pockets higher.  
 

Also significant Saharan dust will be arriving on a conveyor entering Texas and parts of the Deep South.  Always affects air quality but is an indicator to hurricane tracks this late summer.  

[westMJim]

It still looks like we are in for a brief two "heatwave" With temperatures expected in the low 90's it will feel very hot to us after this long cool spell we have just had. It could also be rather humid as there is a chance of some heavy rain fall before the heat gets here. If the temperatures indeed reach the forecasted highs in the low 90's it would some of the warmest readings for June 14th and 15th but the record highs are 96 for the 14th and 97 for the 15th but a 92 or 93 would be 2nd place for both days.

[Timmy Supercell]

9 hours ago, Tom said:

PHX smashed a record high yesterday of 113F (111F old record)...

Did you see their lows? I didn't think 90 for a low was possible. 

[snowstorm83]

Oh this is going to be lovely

Sunday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Southeast wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph.

Monday

Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 103. Breezy, with a south wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Monday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 82. Breezy.

Tuesday

Sunny and hot, with a high near 100. Breezy.

[CentralNebWeather]

Long time until Fall. 

[Clinton]

New enhanced risk area includes KC.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Beatrice is under a tornado warning, some pretty intense high-precip supercells just blossomed.

[Iceresistance]

108 in Altus, OK today, good grief.

[snowstorm83]

Completely missed this afternoon in Lincoln, now we move on to the regularly scheduled June record heat again. 

[Timmy Supercell]

2 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

Beatrice is under a tornado warning, some pretty intense high-precip supercells just blossomed.

How often do south moving supercells occur? 

That storm is easily the highlight of the day if you ask me. Pretty huge and you can make out the spin on a regular reflectivity loop. 

[Timmy Supercell]

I was hoping to find one of the chasers covering that storm, looks like Reed is in southeastern NE on a different storm. Jayjack and Texas are not streaming at the moment. 

[jcwxguy]

Beatrice had 5" HAIL    

[Andie]

8 pm.   100*   Feels like 105*!
 

We had a power surge and my heart stopped.  Didn’t lose power.

Hotter mañana

edit:  Geezzz!

Just got our 2nd power surge   
The system is really challenged. 
Temp down to 97*  at dusk   8:40

 

[Clinton]

The heat kicks in today, looks to last for for 3 or 4 days.  The high today will be in the mid to upper 90s

[Tom]

PHX tied the highest temp every recorded on any June 11th....114F....the Summer Sizzle is making its mark, but there is much welcomed relief heading their way for Father's Day weekend...#MonsoonSeason

[Tom]

Its a warm and muggier morning compared to last week (65F/62F)...you get that feeling Summer is about to kick into high gear.  I'm actually excited to feel some real Heat and curious to see if we do reach 100F on Tue.  Some of the models come close but with wet soils it may be more difficult.