It sort of does, actually. Solid marine push as it treks north.
At least the CMC solution is physically possible. I’ll cut off my d**k if the GFS solution verifies.
The Niño 3.4 number doesn’t tell the whole story.
There was a healthy, quasi-stable niña low pass signal during the first part of that winter. The atmosphere was well coupled. There was no major intraseasonal event (MJO/SSW et al) that could have torpedoed the base state like that.
Not only did it abruptly fall apart without warning, but come February the atmosphere had coupled to the niño-costero signature as if it was a mature niño event. That’s not supposed to happen.
It’s cute you think it’s as simple as a cursory glance at the niño3.4 number, though. I used to think that way..when I was 11 years old.
54 currently, low of 22.
12z gfs was fine, pretty good for the Oregon cascades but only gave me a couple inches, and the Washington cascades and BC didn't get a lot of snow. Oregon doesn't need the snow, WA and BC does, 00z gfs was better for them.
What sounds better, seeing 12" of snow on vacation and then 4" at home a few days after you come back, or see 12" on vacation while 4" falls at home, and then when you come back it's back to boring weather?
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i will personally make sure this happens
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