June 2022 - Summer Begins

[RentonHill]

Just picked up my son and told him where we were going and why…“I don’t like lightning and thunder dad”

 

 

 

[snow drift]

75 @ 11:30, I'm enjoying today. I'm going to soak up every nice day between now and October. They are so precious.

[TT-SEA]

Sunny and 73 here... convective development should start soon.   

12Z ECMWF still shows that Saturday stays dry and the rain holds off until after dark.   Should be a good yard work day with filtered sun and temp around 70.

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Just picked up my son and told him where we were going and why…“I don’t like lightning and thunder dad”

 

 

 

People up here are either endlessly fascinated by thunderstorms or deathly terrified of them. On the other hand, people in thunderstorm prone areas seem ambivalent toward them unless one turns severe or tornadic.

[TT-SEA]

14 hours ago, Phil said:

The GFS is still outrageously cut-off with the NPAC trough next week. Not going verify anywhere close to reality with that.

The 12Z ECMWF went strongly in that direction for next week as well... 00Z ECMWF on the bottom and new 12Z ECMWF on the top.    Pretty big shift.

 

[TT-SEA]

Dewpoint up to 57 at SEA... and 60 now in North Bend.

Fuel for the convective fire later today.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Dewpoint up to 57 at SEA... and 60 now in North Bend.

Fuel for the convective fire later today.

Still much lower than most CAM’s. High clouds are also much more of a presence than initially thought.

Still though, initiation is beginning on time in the Cascades. OR cells are immediately droppibg lightning and surviving relatively well. I think this is a day that will escalate rapidly in the evening, particularly in WA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

64 and cloudy. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

70 with a DP of 58 up here IMBY with filtered sun.

[RentonHill]

Brief moderate rain in Easton 

[TT-SEA]

Up to 75 in North Bend... dark clouds developing to the east.

[Omegaraptor]

51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z ECMWF went strongly in that direction for next week as well... 00Z ECMWF on the bottom and new 12Z ECMWF on the top.    Pretty big shift.

 

Well the models agree everywhere south of Mt Shasta is going into the oven. But the models are still up in the air about ridge placement and amplification. A couple hundred miles difference which is still very much up in the air can mean significant differences for Willamette Valley and Bend area.

[T-Town]

Something is brewing. 72 and muggy. 

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Well the models agree everywhere south of Mt Shasta is going into the oven. But the models are still up in the air about ridge placement and amplification. A couple hundred miles difference which is still very much up in the air can mean significant differences for Willamette Valley and Bend area.

First real flexing of the 4CH muscle, perhaps, pretty much on schedule. Might set the tone of things moving forward.

[Meatyorologist]

KSEA is a fairly large outlier looking at NOAA sfc mesosnalysis. Aside from the immediate Puget Sound coastline, the vast majority of the region is on or ahead of schedule parameter-wise. North Seattle in particular is already running low 70s/around 60 spreads, ahead of the NAM and way ahead of previous reasonable guidance. Could get a round of lightning this evening if we’re lucky…

[Meatyorologist]

Convection now initiating directly upstream of the Seattle metro area. Given the weak shear these thundershowers are all pulse-like in nature, but the timing is on par with those models that want to kick up thunderstorms over our area this evening.

It isn’t a slam dunk by any means but I think most local mets are undervaluing this setup. Same thing happened in Sept 2019, though that was different in many regards.

This is all separate from what I would consider the main threat later tonight when midlevel moisture rapidly ramps up after dark and a weak impulse stirs it all up. Could get two rounds if we play our cards right. Walking a tightrope with this first series though. Watch and see.

[TT-SEA]

Cell formed just to my east... seems to be moving off to the northeast so this one will probably miss me. 

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Convection now initiating directly upstream of the Seattle metro area. Given the weak shear these thundershowers are all pulse-like in nature, but the timing is on par with those models that want to kick up thunderstorms over our area this evening.

It isn’t a slam dunk by any means but I think most local mets are undervaluing this setup. Same thing happened in Sept 2019, though that was different in many regards.

This is all separate from what I would consider the main threat later tonight when midlevel moisture rapidly ramps up after dark and a weak impulse stirs it all up. Could get two rounds if we play our cards right. Walking a tightrope with this first series though. Watch and see.

I hope something somehow manages to form over the Coast Range and then reach my area.

[TacomaWaWx]

33 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Something is brewing. 72 and muggy. 

The sky looks very convective…hopefully something pans out. My guess is that any storms will probably be to our east…gonna try and capture some photos tonight hopefully. 

[snow drift]

36 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Well the models agree everywhere south of Mt Shasta is going into the oven. But the models are still up in the air about ridge placement and amplification. A couple hundred miles difference which is still very much up in the air can mean significant differences for Willamette Valley and Bend area.

Good point. We'll probably sit in the middle and be the battleground. It will be up and down like most Junes.

[RentonHill]

The anticipation is too much for some to handle

[Blizzard777]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

Still haven’t had even 1 sniffle since covid in spring 2020. Counting my lucky stars.

Thanks for reminding me!

I was on a streak of 5 year’s without getting sick… guess I need to start at 

DAY 0  (free from sickness) 

71* Skies have that look currently 

[Meatyorologist]

18z NAM is responding to better parameters than expected. Drops some thundershowers over the region later this afternoon

[TacomaWaWx]

11 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

The anticipation is too much for some to handle

Even the dogs not excited

[Phil]

Wettest EPS run yet. #Blessings

[TT-SEA]

North Bend got up to 77... down to 76 now. 

[Phil]

I think we’ll see guidance come around to the idea of a coherent retrogression of the wavetrain in mid-June.

12z EPS hinting at it, but probably not fully caught on yet.

[Phil]

We just got smashed with a severe storm, probably had winds up to and over 60mph.

Also apparently have a masonry problem because water started gushing into the fireplace out-cove. Lucky I caught it or we’d have a flood in the living room right now.

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wettest EPS run yet. #Blessings

You need some new trolling material.   Getting lazy. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

You need some new trolling material.   Getting lazy. 

That was directed at Andrew, but carry on.  

[TacomaWaWx]

71 here DP 62. 

[FroYoBro]

Up to 75 here and I see some decent showers popping up around Mount Hood on the radar. 

[T-Town]

Choppers. 
 

Still 72 with filtered sunshine. Ominous clouds earlier didn’t amount to anything. 

[Meatyorologist]

Here we go…

[TT-SEA]

5 hours ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

74°F w/moderate rain and now THUNDER!

Sure looked like there would be thunder.   Sky is getting brighter... at least for now but more coming.    Feels humid out there!

[Meatyorologist]

I love altocumulus castellanus…. my favorite cloud. The sky is filled with it right now. Hoping for some lightning.

[RentonHill]

Sky coming into Pateros 

[TT-SEA]

Some pretty explosive development happening to the south here... should get pretty interesting over the next hour.

[RentonHill]

10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Here we go…

Figures I leave home and it will prob be awesome there 

[Chewbacca Defense]

74 now with the DP at 61 looks like we hit 77 at some point.  Seeing the clouds start to do some interesting stuff...

 

Business definitely appears to be picking up in mountains east of the south sound region...