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June 2022 - Summer Begins


TT-SEA

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

But you have to account for warmer global SSTAs as well. Because *differential heating* is how ENSO influences global circulation.

So the 2022 ENSO is in all likelihood stronger than 1999 was at this point in time. 

Thanks Phil 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Mostly sunny here this morning... the Seattle area is sort of in a wedge of nice weather ahead of the developing system offshore.     Models are all over the place in terms of how long it lasts, but hopefully into the afternoon.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

The effects might be stronger... but the ENSO SSTAs were colder in 1999.

The ENSO event/signature is stronger. Not just the effects.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Mostly sunny here this morning... the Seattle area is sort of in a wedge of nice weather ahead of the developing system offshore.     Models are all over the place in terms of how long it lasts, but hopefully into the afternoon.

Sunbreaks and sprinkles here currently. Feels pretty nice though these mornings have been pretty mild since we got into June. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Just 3 more days until enhanced trades return to the IPWP/dateline, for several weeks.

Any intraseasonal SSTA warming ceases next week.

758D30C4-CCFD-4D76-B279-3238187CE631.jpeg

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

The ENSO event/signature is stronger. Not just the effects.

Interesting... so the ENSO region is warmer but so is the rest of the world by a larger margin so the difference is actually greater.     Does that sum it up?

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I was looking at May PDO. It was like the 4th most negative in May since the 1890s. Only 1999, 1964, 1950, and 1910 were lower since 1894. There was an incredibly negative PDO stretch in the early 1890s. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Mostly sunny here this morning... the Seattle area is sort of in a wedge of nice weather ahead of the developing system offshore.     Models are all over the place in terms of how long it lasts, but hopefully into the afternoon.

I need to mow…Badly…It needs to stay dry until 2pm. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting... so the ENSO region is warmer but so is the rest of the world by a larger margin so the difference is actually greater.     Does that sum it up?

Correct, for all intents and purposes.

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13 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

You getting a mower deck for the tractor or

keeping the little guy around?

Keeping little guy for mowing…For now! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

EFEB0DD8-D128-4C3D-8A86-22A8CA6FE6B7.jpeg

ABF2A9CF-30E7-4EF5-8F7E-8C5698F3C43B.jpeg

21A40486-8BE2-4496-A0EF-5FD00BEE900D.jpeg

17B4C58C-2F43-4F77-9242-2BC6B1BF6BB7.jpeg

Hiked Mailbox Peak today.

That was really early... looks like about 8 a.m. based on the clouds.    It's been quite a bit sunnier since then.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Omg the 12z was wet!!!

1840159F-DB58-40A5-9B8F-4E567E760C35.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

That was really early... looks like about 8 a.m. based on the clouds.    It's been quite a bit sunnier since then.

Left at 3:30am to beat the crowd, got there at 4:45, sumitted at 7:45. Very good intuition!

My knees are jello.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Tim’s vacation spot 

09135865-A522-485C-9743-2997C4FE504B.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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30 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Already?

Don’t regret the early rise. We were the 2nd group up, and by the time we reached the bottom at 10:00 it was an absolute zoo, and we had already passed innumerable amounts of other hikers headed their way up.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Omg the 12z was wet!!!

1840159F-DB58-40A5-9B8F-4E567E760C35.png

Forget June, that’s a wetter than average run in November or December.

Also consider mountain snowpack is much higher than normal. If something like that verifies we could be looking at some pretty significant flood concerns.

 

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6 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

How many top warm months or warmest months on record have they seen in the spring and summer in recent years?

April and May this year were top tier cold after a la niña winter. Hence my listing of 1984, 1996, 2008, 2011, and 2012. I'm focusing on years I experienced. I could be here all day listing years otherwise. July 1981(4th coldest), 1983(7th coldest), 1986(2nd coldest), 1987(15th coldest), 1992, and 1993(coldest)were all colder than average. Every May preceding those Julys was average or warmer than average except 1981. The three warmest summers on record are 2021, 2015, and 1998. I experienced the 2nd coldest winter in 1978-79. 1948-49 is the coldest. The five coldest years are 1985, 1955, 1964, 1996, and 1993. I experienced 3/5. Honestly, I'm usually more concerned about a warmer than average May. 2016 is a good example. July was colder than average that year. You pay for a warm May. Without a doubt, we have seen a lot of warm springs over the past decade. It had to change eventually. Keep in mind, a cooler spring doesn't necessarily lead to a cooler July-August.

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Light rain much of the morning. 0.14” in the bucket.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18 minutes ago, snow drift said:

April and May this year were top tier cold after a la niña winter. Hence 1984, 1996, 2008, 2011, and 2012. I'm focusing on years I experienced. I could be here all day listing years otherwise. July 1981(4th coldest), 1983(7th coldest), 1986(2nd coldest), 1987(15th coldest), 1992, and 1993(coldest)were all colder than average. Every May preceding those Julys was average or warmer than average except 1981. 1981, 1983, 1986, and 1992 were all average to warmer than average in August. 1993 and 1987 were both cooler. The three warmest summers on record are 2021, 2015, and 1998. I experienced the 2nd coldest winter in 1978-79. 1948-49 is the coldest. The five coldest years are 1985, 1955, 1964, 1996, and 1993. I experienced 3/5. Honestly, I'm usually more concerned about a warmer than average May. 2016 is a good example. July was colder than average that year. You pay for a warm May.

July 2016 is the bar for a “bad summer” now? Man there’s going to be some serious whiplash if another 1983 or 1993 happens anytime soon. Not that I want a repeat of those two… just saying, lol

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Warm and humid and sunny here.   This is one of those days with rain in the stats that had meaningful sun and we have been doing yard work since 9 a.m.

I actually like the 12Z ECMWF details despite it continuing this unbelievable rain.   Tomorrow and Monday are at least partly sunny with some showers... and Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons looks really nice.   Thursday is probably like today and then Friday is the big rain day.    That is a decent balance for a period that will technically have rain on 6 out of 7 days.    And next weekend looks decent as well.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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28 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

image.thumb.png.bb40b8f7407b552821ec0c4d36f9108e.png

Is that a November map? 🤣😂 

 

11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

July 2016 is the bar for a “bad summer” now? Man there’s going to be some serious whiplash if another 1983 or 1993 happens anytime soon. Not that I want a repeat of those two… just saying, lol

It wasn't bad. I experienced 1983 and 1993. 1993 was awful. July 1986 was miserable, too. There's nothing like wearing a winter coat on the 4th of July. You should try it. All those years had warmth in May.

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Wearing the memory goggles ⛈️

ww0330_overview_big_wou.gif

KRTX_20090604_2.gif

090604_rpts.gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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32 minutes ago, snow drift said:

April and May this year were top tier cold after a la niña winter. Hence 1984, 1996, 2008, 2011, and 2012. I'm focusing on years I experienced. I could be here all day listing years otherwise. July 1981(4th coldest), 1983(7th coldest), 1986(2nd coldest), 1987(15th coldest), 1992, and 1993(coldest)were all colder than average. Every May preceding those Julys was average or warmer than average except 1981. 1981, 1983, 1986, and 1992 were all average to warmer than average in August. 1993 and 1987 were both cooler. The three warmest summers on record are 2021, 2015, and 1998. I experienced the 2nd coldest winter in 1978-79. 1948-49 is the coldest. The five coldest years are 1985, 1955, 1964, 1996, and 1993. I experienced 3/5. Honestly, I'm usually more concerned about a warmer than average May. 2016 is a good example. July was colder than average that year. You pay for a warm May.

Plenty of cool Julys out there during 3+ year Niña cycles following cool springs. 1975, 1955, 1999, 2000, and 2001 come to mind.

Generally speaking it’s the state of Indo-Pacific convection that plays the largest role in how summer plays out up there. Developing Niños that emerged via the WPAC (or very east based Niñas/warm WPAC neutral years) tend to be the warmest w/ the most +PNA/+TNH, while years w/ large scale WPAC subsidence (often developing Niñas but also sometimes east-based Niños or neutral years w/ a cool WPAC) tend to be the coolest.

This year has the background Walker Cell displaced/stretched pretty far west into the Indo-Pacific, which is more reflective of the “cool” summer analog composite. Though to what extent is obviously still TBD. 

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14 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

July 2016 is the bar for a “bad summer” now? Man there’s going to be some serious whiplash if another 1983 or 1993 happens anytime soon. Not that I want a repeat of those two… just saying, lol

Wasn’t that a warmer than average summer?

Decent chance this July is cooler than 2016, barring any significant MJO transit into the W-Pacific.

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

20220604_121236.jpg

Wow. Been pretty much raining here for the past 30 hours. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wasn’t that a warmer than average summer?

Decent chance this July is cooler than 2016, barring any significant MJO transit into the W-Pacific.

July 2016 was pretty close to 1991-2020 normals, on the coolish side most places. We had some pretty big heatwaves in august 2016 though. Today’s record high at SLE is 99 set during a fairly brief but impressive heatwave in... 2016.

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wasn’t that a warmer than average summer?

Decent chance this July is cooler than 2016, barring any significant MJO transit into the W-Pacific.

The summer was a little above average but July 2016 ended solidly around -1.0 at KLMT. 

It is hard to have highs in the 60's east of the cascades middle of summer, it happened that year. 
You can thank an early June heatwave for the season ending above. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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