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June 2022 - Summer Begins


TT-SEA

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1 minute ago, Kayla said:

12z EPS is showing another very healthy looking trough as we head into the third week of June.

Screen Shot 2022-06-05 at 1.54.03 PM.png

 

At face value... probably a pretty nice pattern with the focus to the north.    The EPS has been consistently shutting off the fire hose after next week.     That would be a nice change of pace. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_7day-5726400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5726400.png

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

 

At face value... probably a pretty nice pattern with the focus to the north.    The EPS has been consistently shutting off the fire hose after next week.     That would be a nice change of pace. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_7day-5726400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5726400.png

I think we'll see a nice dry stretch after next weekend but I'm fancying another pretty strong trough as we head into the third week of June through early July. The longer we keep the 4CH in check the better IMO.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...we all know it has to rain endlessly to have green trees!

Would be better for it to be 60 degrees and sunny every day in the summer with that NW flow 😂

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Kayla said:

I think we'll see a nice dry stretch after next weekend but I'm fancying another pretty strong trough as we head into the third week of June through early July. The longer we keep the 4CH in check the better IMO.

I wouldn't be surprised by a 60s and drizzle 4th of July. We're due.

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3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I think we'll see a nice dry stretch after next weekend but I'm fancying another pretty strong trough as we head into the third week of June through early July. The longer we keep the 4CH in check the better IMO.

Keeping the 4CH in check becomes the biggest goal once we get past mid month. 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Would be pretty wild if things started trending a lot drier after mid June. Any analogs?

It's been very anomalously wet since the end of March so I don't take it for granted that it will start to dry out in mid June this year.  

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I give you a lot of crap, but it’s kind of interesting to observe how Tim might post if he lived in a significantly drier climate.

The rain hasn't been that bad this spring. The cloud cover has been off the charts. Last spring was scary. A dry spring going into a hot summer is never something that you want. At least precipitation is trending more towards normal this year.

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53 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The SSTA map right now does not look dramatically different than it did one year ago.    The ENSO regions are a little cooler but the overall configuration is quite similar.    This in no way implies there will be another 1,000 year freakish heat event.  Probably not in our lifetimes.   But maybe the overall pattern is actually going to quiet down significantly after the middle of June... which is pretty typical.   The first half of June last year was also really wet.

2022 (1).png

2021 (13).png

That is a huge difference across the southern indo-pacific. The warm pool is displaced much father to the south and has dramatically altered the tropical forcing/circulation.

Those are warm, tropical waters that make up the most important heat engine on the planet.

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32 minutes ago, Kayla said:

12z EPS is showing another very healthy looking trough as we head into the third week of June.

Screen Shot 2022-06-05 at 1.54.03 PM.png

I’d take that!

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

That is a huge difference across the southern indo-pacific. The warm pool is displaced much father to the south and has dramatically altered the tropical forcing/circulation.

Those are warm, tropical waters that make up the most important heat engine on the planet.

The difference is pretty obvious to anyone with eyes. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This is interesting. 

F2109E40-A45A-4049-B477-3C984EA42E7B.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The difference is pretty obvious to anyone with eyes. 

Sure... 1-2C difference changes the world.   

It was pretty warm down there in 2020 too.    And not warm down there in 2008.      I would pick 2020 over 2008.   👍

 

2008.png

2020.png

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Also ENSO SSTAs are probably peaking now. There is a prolonged trade burst coming up, centered right over the IPWP/WPAC, which will promote upwelling.

7A89DD35-B272-4897-93C1-FC3E9A06503B.png

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Also ENSO SSTAs are probably peaking now. There is a prolonged trade burst coming up, centered right over the IPWP/WPAC, which will promote upwelling.

7A89DD35-B272-4897-93C1-FC3E9A06503B.png

Wow... CFS does not seem to be catching on to that...

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Also ENSO SSTAs are probably peaking now. There is a prolonged trade burst coming up, centered right over the IPWP/WPAC, which will promote upwelling.

7A89DD35-B272-4897-93C1-FC3E9A06503B.png

Guessing warming just levels off.   

Would upwelling be cooling if the coldest water is on top?

wkxzteq_anm.gif

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sure... 1-2C difference changes the world.   

It was pretty warm down there in 2020 too.    And not warm down there in 2008.      I would pick 2020 over 2008.   👍

 

2008.png

2020.png

Again, what matters is *differential heating*. In 2020 the NH W-Pac was relatively warmer than the SH (not to mention the +IOD/+PMM signatures). Same with 2021.

You’re correct that 2008 was a different look, with much more of a W-Hem component to tropical convection. But it’s actually no worse than 2021 or 2020 (both of which are terrible analogs to 2022).

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3 minutes ago, quacksax said:

Indeed. Bark beetles have wreaked havoc across the Rockies. Warmer temperatures and less precipitation means weaker trees and more beetle reproduction. Fire suppression and the resulting overgrown, homogenous forests haven't helped. I believe lodgepole pine have been hit the hardest, but they're hardly the only species being killed. If you're bored, you can mess around with satellite and street view on Google maps and see all of the grey forests in Colorado around Wolf Creek Pass east of Pagosa Springs or Highway 125 north of Granby. Jasper NP in Alberta is another hard-hit area.

I spent a few days around Houston BC a couple years ago and I was just blown away how much kill there was. Just dead trees as far as you can see in some spots. Provoked a worse feeling for me than seeing burned areas. 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Again, what matters is *differential heating*. In 2020 the NH W-Pac was relatively warmer than the SH (not to mention the +IOD/+PMM signatures). Same with 2021.

You’re correct that 2008 was a different look, with much more of a W-Hem component to tropical convection. But it’s actually no worse than 2021 or 2020 (both of which are terrible analogs to 2022).

Differential is not that different than 2021... warmer to the north if that area as well this year.  

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Guessing warming just levels off.   

Would upwelling be cooling if the coldest water is on top?

wkxzteq_anm.gif

Those subsurface waters are still cooler than the surface waters.

Also, FWIW that downwelling wave has actually stopped propagating with easterly currents already present. So the upcoming trades will probably attenuate those subsurface anomalies easily.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Differential is not that different than 2021... warmer to the north if that area as well this year.  

What? It’s a substance latitudinal difference in the gradient across the indo-pacific.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Those subsurface waters are still cooler than the surface waters.

Also, FWIW that downwelling wave has actually stopped propagating with easterly currents already present. So the upcoming trades will probably attenuate those subsurface anomalies easily.

I don't know.   If that subsurface loop was flipped and there was colder water below then you would say upwelling would bring dramatic cooling.   But the reverse is apparently not true.  ;)

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

What? It’s a substance latitudinal difference in the gradient across the indo-pacific.

Show me the difference... we are speaking abstractly here about a vague region.   Need more details. 

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't know.   If that subsurface loop was flipped and there was colder water below then you would say upwelling would bring dramatic cooling.   But the reverse is apparently not true.  ;)

The SST warming happens in the absence of upwelling *and* weak trade winds, since that allows solar radiation to heat the surface water without evaporative cooling from winds to attenuate it or cool waters to mix it out.

But the subsurface is still cooler. You could have the most intense subsurface warm anomalies ever, but if trades are raging the SSTAs will not warm much if at all.

Alsothere are no westerly currents to transport that OHC into the ENSO domain, the subsurface won’t warm further.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

The SST warming happens in the absence of upwelling *and* weak trade winds, since that allows solar radiation to heat the surface water without evaporative cooling from winds to attenuate it or cool waters to mix it out.

But the subsurface is still cooler. You could have the most intense subsurface warm anomalies ever, but if trades are raging the SSTAs will not warm much if at all.

Alsothere are no westerly currents to transport that OHC into the ENSO domain, the subsurface won’t warm further.

Thanks for the explanation...that makes sense.   

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4 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

We didn't know about the field burning when I moved out to the Albany/Corvallis area back in the early 90s.  The first day I saw it several fields had been lit, it kinda freaked me out (one was pretty close) until a local explained it to me.

When I was about 15, we hosted a baseball team from Hawai'i and they were a bit freaked out. We explained why and they got it. They occasionally torched sugar cane fields too

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18Z GFS doesn't look too bad over the next week.   Oregon misses most of the action... and everything has been shifting north over the last few runs.   

gfs-deterministic-nw-precip_3hr_inch-1654452000-1654462800-1655100000-10.gif

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Comparing the 18Z run from yesterday to the new 18Z run today... 7-day anomalies for the Tuesday through Tuesday period.    Went from epic rain yesterday to a little drier than normal from about Mt. Vernon southward.

 

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-qpf_anom_7day-5251200 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-qpf_anom_7day-5251200.png

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