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June 2022 - Summer Begins


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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS and ECMWF both keep vacillating between 1 and 3 inches for the next 10 days.  A lot of uncertainty just how wet it will be.

Gonna be a deluge either way. I do remember we had an atmospheric river in June last year too…but considering we’ve already had one this month and there could be another one even more impressive that just pales in comparison. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Did they forecast too much/little snow or was it something else?

It was 8 years ago so I could be remembering some details wrong, but the Arctic blast itself didn’t show up consistently until fairly late in the game, and then it looked like it was going to be mostly cold and dry with the precip that ended up being the snow event going into SW Oregon. A couple days out that got shifted north. I feel like the big snow event start on a Thursday and snow didn’t really look like a serious threat until Tuesday. 
 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Someone needs to pull Mark Nelsen s extended forecast for PDX from December 1996. 🤦‍♂️

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I do worry that if this AR event verifies it might have a more negative impact than positive. Could be some flooding potential and melt a lot of snowpack. From a weather geek perspective though would be freaking nuts to get a uber wet June. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I do worry that if this AR event verifies it might have a more negative impact than positive. Could be some flooding potential and melt a lot of snowpack. From a weather geek perspective though would be freaking nuts to get a uber wet June. 

I kind of want to see it happen because of how crazy it is, but yeah that could be a problem.

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1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

I kind of want to see it happen because of how crazy it is, but yeah that could be a problem.

Just gotta enjoy what Mother Nature throws our way sometimes. Statistically speaking would be pretty nuts. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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44 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

And the entire Willamette Valley had snow which was nice. In my location Jan 2017 was much better though.

How well did the models do forecasting the Feb 14 events?

Most models had the overrunning stuff on 2/6 well to the south until very late in the game.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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17 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

The 24hr-168hr models are pretty wet for much of the country. Everything but the southwest. 

 

mrms_qpe_168h_p.conus.png

mrms_qpe_072h_p.conus.png

mrms_qpe_024h_p.conus.png

Screen Shot 2022-06-05 at 8.55.08 PM.png

This was overlooked when posted, but now it seems the local media is on board for it.  Gonna be wet.  Curious what the temps will be at?  Will it be muggy and warm due to it's tropical nature?

Screen Shot 2022-06-06 at 2.42.17 PM.png

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24 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Everyone revved up for the 18z??? 

Still cutting off troughs more than all other guidance.

Edit: But it did make a move towards the 12z ECMWF.

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1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Summer in a humid continental area at 39°N hotter than summer downwind from a cold ocean at 47°N. Shocker!

Haha yes I know that I was just surprised at how warm even during troughing periods.  I have always thought of Maryland/DC as more in the northeast category rather than southern. 

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4 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Haha yes I know that I was just surprised at how warm even during troughing periods.  I have always thought of Maryland/DC as more in the northeast category rather than southern. 

Slavery was actually legal in Maryland, but they opted not to secede from the Union during the Civil War. Because the Emancipation Proclamation only freed slaves in the Confederacy, slavery was legal in Maryland until 1864 when it was narrowly abolished by referendum. In fact it was only decided by about 400 votes after absentee ballots from Marylanders fighting for the Union were counted...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/the-not-quite-free-state-maryland-dragged-its-feet-on-emancipation-during-civil-war/2013/09/13/a34d35de-fec7-11e2-bd97-676ec24f1f3f_story.html

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Haha yes I know that I was just surprised at how warm even during troughing periods.  I have always thought of Maryland/DC as more in the northeast category rather than southern. 

Oh yeah we get the “southern summer” as does basically everywhere south of 40N. There’s some enhancement of that locally due to downsloping off the Appalachians and shallow local waters that heat up rapidly.

But generally speaking there’s very little difference in climatology across the SE US and Mid Atlantic during the warm season. Everyone is under the same airmass, advected in by the same Bermuda High. 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I do worry that if this AR event verifies it might have a more negative impact than positive. Could be some flooding potential and melt a lot of snowpack. From a weather geek perspective though would be freaking nuts to get a uber wet June. 

A big heat wave would likely have much the same effect as well. WA mountain snowpack is well above normal for this time of year. 3-4" of rain falling on top of it in a short period of time is going to send some rivers pretty high.

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Slavery was actually legal in Maryland, but they opted not to secede from the Union during the Civil War. Because the Emancipation Proclamation only freed slaves in the Confederacy, slavery was legal in Maryland until 1864 when it was narrowly abolished by referendum. In fact it was only decided by about 400 votes after absentee ballots from Marylanders fighting for the Union were counted...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/the-not-quite-free-state-maryland-dragged-its-feet-on-emancipation-during-civil-war/2013/09/13/a34d35de-fec7-11e2-bd97-676ec24f1f3f_story.html

Kentucky and Missouri were also slave states and stayed in the Union. And Virginia of course broke in two, with the western part of that state remaining in the Union as the new state of West Virginia.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I do worry that if this AR event verifies it might have a more negative impact than positive. Could be some flooding potential and melt a lot of snowpack. From a weather geek perspective though would be freaking nuts to get a uber wet June. 

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think due to the much more consolidated nature of the snowpack in the spring as compared to the fall/winter, the snowpack won't melt nearly as much as it would during a traditional atmospheric river event.

For example it was in the mid 40s yesterday at 4,000' at the Mount Baker Ski Area and they picked up 2.5" of rain. Despite all that rain, relatively warm temperatures, and wind gusting to 40 mph, they only lost 3" of snow depth.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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18z didn't look all that wild. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 hours ago, Phil said:

But will it be capped? Need to ride the edge of the ridge without getting stuck underneath it. 😬 

Never said any of that CAPE would be realized ;)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think due to the much more consolidated nature of the snowpack in the spring as compared to the fall/winter, the snowpack won't melt nearly as much as it would during a traditional atmospheric river event.

For example it was in the mid 40s yesterday at 4,000' at the Mount Baker Ski Area and they picked up 2.5" of rain. Despite all that rain, relatively warm temperatures, and wind gusting to 40 mph, they only lost 3" of snow depth.

Normally you’d think it would be a big deal so hopefully it’s not! I’ll gladly take some snowmelt from heavy rains versus extreme heat melting everything like last June. Much more beneficial for it to be raining. Will likely be some flooding concerns still though which feels weird to talk about in June. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

 

Those comments are giving me an aneurysm

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Slavery was actually legal in Maryland, but they opted not to secede from the Union during the Civil War. Because the Emancipation Proclamation only freed slaves in the Confederacy, slavery was legal in Maryland until 1864 when it was narrowly abolished by referendum. In fact it was only decided by about 400 votes after absentee ballots from Marylanders fighting for the Union were counted...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/the-not-quite-free-state-maryland-dragged-its-feet-on-emancipation-during-civil-war/2013/09/13/a34d35de-fec7-11e2-bd97-676ec24f1f3f_story.html

Troughing should be illegal during the summer. Let's take a vote. 

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Houston TX might have the worst climate in the US.

Heat indices 110°F every day and it’s only early June. 😢

DA1704C7-C591-4682-BF91-6D197BD252D3.png

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Houston TX might have the worst climate in the US.

Heat indices 110°F every day and it’s only early June. 😢

DA1704C7-C591-4682-BF91-6D197BD252D3.png

And it doesn't get the same amount of afternoon thunderstorms as other cities with similar humidity like Miami or NOLA or Atlanta. It's that EML influence from the desert SW... Caps a good portion of it.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

I'm not gonna lie... I would like to move to a sunnier climate eventually. Not necessarily a warmer climate... somewhere that never gets snow is a no-go. Honestly most of the interior/mountain West fits the bill. Having the sun is just such a massive boost for my psyche. Helps me get out of bed, makes me more excited for the day, etc. Really noticed the impact with how little sun there was this April and first half of May.

Nah. You should move to an even cloudier climate then spend 14 hours a day complaining about cloud cover and rainfall stats for your backyard. Seems like that’s what any rational sun lover would do. 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I'm not gonna lie... I would like to move to a sunnier climate eventually. Not necessarily a warmer climate... somewhere that never gets snow is a no-go. Honestly most of the interior/mountain West fits the bill. Having the sun is just such a massive boost for my psyche. Helps me get out of bed, makes me more excited for the day, etc. Really noticed the impact with how little sun there was this April and first half of May.

Having SAD I also need some sunlight to feel my best. But it doesn’t have to be all day every day. Just a few hours per day makes a massive difference for me.

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

And it doesn't get the same amount of afternoon thunderstorms as other cities with similar humidity like Miami or NOLA or Atlanta. It's that EML influence from the desert SW... Caps a good portion of it.

I’ve seen that acronym a couple times today with respect to convection. What is EML?

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Nah. You should move to an even cloudier climate then spend 14 hours a day complaining about cloud cover and rainfall stats for your backyard. Seems like that’s what any rational sun lover would do. 

 

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Having SAD I also need some sunlight to feel my best. But it doesn’t have to be all day every day. Just a few hours per day makes a massive difference for me.

I just remembered that the preference war thread now exists so I moved my comment there. Not fast enough I guess. 

The pattern since mid-May has been overall quite nice. But it is most years.

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7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’ve seen that acronym a couple times today with respect to convection. What is EML?

Elevated mixed layer. Basically solar radiation heats the airmass over intermountain high terrain (elevated land surface conducting directly to atmosphere), and that airmass is then advected eastward, high above the boundary layer, “capping” it.

It’s responsible for super-charging our severe events when it advects out here and is subsequently broken by surface heating and boundary layer moisture.

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