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June 2022 - Summer Begins


TT-SEA

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Thought this one was nice 🥰 

D805DC64-38C7-4A36-BCE2-5D1CE0266E81.png

Saw that one... Definitely telling that all the PNW natives (especially ones that are older than like 20) are the ones loving it. I myself have never seen grass or bushes grow this quickly here.

This newest generation and cali transplants are accustomed to the 2013-2021 summers being the 'norm'... even though they are definitely not. I've said it before and I'll say it again... The next truly below average summer will be a time of reckoning for those who have been fooled into thinking it usually gets to 80°F every day in Seattle. And I'm not talking 2011... I am talking a 2001 type summer. An actually cool summer.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Having SAD I also need some sunlight to feel my best. But it doesn’t have to be all day every day. Just a few hours per day makes a massive difference for me.

Same here.   I was not really a sun lover until we moved here.    And its usually decent enough... but I do find myself really craving sun during long stretches of cloudy weather in the spring, summer, and fall.   I don't care too much about winter... we go on vacations for sun then. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Of course I do not exempt myself from this new generation... I am definitely a part of it.

I myself am only aware of this recent climate change because I've been staring at the sky since I was a little boy, like a total freak... And I enjoy my hot dogs nice and thick with extra toppings, thank you very much.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z EPS looking pretty decent for the rainstorm and troughing chances into the long range 

9DD18DB5-BD88-4595-9E25-2DE20D8AC1E1.png

The EPS gets a decidedly drier, but still cool look in the longer range.  Much more GOA ridging.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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image.png

Wow... That is just splendid. Much of our min high records this time of year come from evap cooling-related stratoform rain days. To set one with a mixed profile would be something else.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Of course I do not exempt myself from this new generation... I am definitely a part of it.

I myself am only aware of this recent climate change because I've been staring at the sky since I was a little boy, like a total freak... And I enjoy my hot dogs nice and thick with extra toppings, thank you very much.

The climate is always changing.  It's nothing new.  A lot of people would be shocked to know there is evidence that Glacier National Park didn't have any glaciers before the little ice age.  This is all cyclical.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Would be a nice change of pace. Ready for some cooler mornings.

Indeed.  I just want more NW flow.  Much more pleasant, and as you say cooler nights.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Would be a nice change of pace. Ready for some cooler mornings.

Nights have been annoyingly mild, but the rain has made up for it. Ironically enough, when in conjunction with the constant moisture, the recent warm nights have aided in plant growth. Cellular respiration and internal chemical reactions take place faster in an ambiently warmer environment.

Though I'm sure they won't mind a few lows in the 40s ;)

  • Like 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The climate is always changing.  It's nothing new.  A lot of people would be shocked to know there is evidence that Glacier National Park didn't have any glaciers before the little ice age.  This is all cyclical.

There is an anthropogenic contribution to the observed climate change. The extent of that contribution is not knowable at this time, but fundamental radiative transfer physics dictate it must be so.

I suspect it’s significantly less than IPCC estimates, though.

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38 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

According to the NWS Portland AFD, the 12z EPS means shows a strong to extreme atmospheric river for the weekend, with IVT values of 750-1000+ kg/ms.

The only June AR I can remember was in 1985.  No doubt that led to some great stuff.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

There is an anthropogenic contribution to the observed climate change. The extent of that contribution is not knowable at this time, but fundamental radiative transfer physics dictate it must be so.

I suspect it’s significantly less than IPCC estimates, though.

I agree for the most part.  The thing is we have no way of knowing what tricks Mother Nature might have to mitigate that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Nights have been annoyingly mild, but the rain has made up for it. Ironically enough, when in conjunction with the constant moisture, the recent warm nights have aided in plant growth. Cellular respiration and internal chemical reactions take place faster in an ambiently warmer environment.

Though I'm sure they won't mind a few lows in the 40s ;)

There were actually a lot of 40s last night which ain't bad considering.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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26 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Saw that one... Definitely telling that all the PNW natives (especially ones that are older than like 20) are the ones loving it. I myself have never seen grass or bushes grow this quickly here.

This newest generation and cali transplants are accustomed to the 2013-2021 summers being the 'norm'... even though they are definitely not. I've said it before and I'll say it again... The next truly below average summer will be a time of reckoning for those who have been fooled into thinking it usually gets to 80°F every day in Seattle. And I'm not talking 2011... I am talking a 2001 type summer. An actually cool summer.

I have lived in the same 20 mile radius my entire life (45ish years) and I am more than ready for some sun. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Wednesday may be one of our first "marine layer" days of the summer, right about on time. After a warm up into the mid 70s tomorrow, gradients build and a marine push lands onshore. Could be cloudy through midday before warming and clearing during the afternoon Wednesday.

  • Like 3

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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image.png

Not sure if this was mentioned, but the end of the 12z GEM was... 😵

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Last GEM mention was a Tim post remarking on how warm/dry it looked, I believe.

Human nature to look for hope... its all we have Justin.   Hope springs eternal.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Human nature to look for hope... its all we have Justin.   Hope springs eternal.  

 

 

 

Conflicting reports. There's even a big rainstorm in this movie during the otherwise inspiring escape sequence :( 

Edited by BLI snowman
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50 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Wednesday may be one of our first "marine layer" days of the summer, right about on time. After a warm up into the mid 70s tomorrow, gradients build and a marine push lands onshore. Could be cloudy through midday before warming and clearing during the afternoon Wednesday.

Not sure if you noticed but for anywhere east of I-5 today was a pretty solid marine layer day.    Much more so than is being shown by the ECMWF for Wednesday. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure if you noticed but for anywhere east of I-5 today was a pretty solid marine layer day.    Much more so than is being shown by the ECMWF for Wednesday. 

Today was more of an artifact of transient westerly flow associated with an exiting trough.

Wednesday's marine layer will be advected inland solely via thermal pressure gradients. More of a typical midsummer marine layer setup. But yes, today did have one.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Today was more of an artifact of transient westerly flow associated with an exiting trough.

Wednesday's marine layer will be advected inland solely via thermal pressure gradients. More of a typical midsummer marine layer setup. But yes, today did have one.

There is a trough moving through Wednesday morning.

...

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

There is a trough moving through Wednesday morning.

...

A much weaker one. But a pronounced trough, I suppose.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

GFS cutoff error painfully evident D7-8.

At some point we will have an actual dry spell.    And it will probably happen from a low finally cutting off.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

At some point we will have an actual dry spell.    And it will probably happen from a low finally cutting off.    

Yes there will be a dry spell, no it won’t come from a cutoff in such a manner.

The the GFS is just full of s**t.

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5 hours ago, Phil said:

Oh yeah we get the “southern summer” as does basically everywhere south of 40N. There’s some enhancement of that locally due to downsloping off the Appalachians and shallow local waters that heat up rapidly.

But generally speaking there’s very little difference in climatology across the SE US and Mid Atlantic during the warm season. Everyone is under the same airmass, advected in by the same Bermuda High. 

Interesting. 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yes there will be a dry spell, no it won’t come from a cutoff in such a manner.

The the GFS is just full of s**t.

So the trough axis will be just slightly to the east and parked over the PNW... minor adjustment.   

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5380800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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42 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

 

 

Conflicting reports. There's even a big rainstorm in this movie during the otherwise inspiring escape sequence :( 

It also snows during/around the time Andy gets brutally gang raped.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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16 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

A much weaker one. But a pronounced trough, I suppose.

Its definitely a trough... and not the marine layer moving in under a ridge of high pressure solely on thermal gradients.   We would need an actual ridge and a true warm day or two for that to happen.    That is nowhere in sight.  

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It also snows during/around the time Andy gets brutally gang raped.

I also remember a steamy rooftop on a warm summer day and cold beers at some point.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its definitely a trough... and not the marine layer moving in under a ridge of high pressure solely on thermal gradients.   We would need an actual ridge and a true warm day or two for that to happen.    That is nowhere in sight.  

I looked again and you are right, the trough overhead definitely helps... But it's not the sole driver. Thermal gradients do help it.

Plus the characteristics of the marine layer are more reminiscent of a thermally induced one. It's fairly shallow and is likely to burn off after noon.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I looked again and you are right, the trough overhead definitely helps... But it's not the sole driver. Thermal gradients do help it.

Plus the characteristics of the marine layer are more reminiscent of a thermally induced one. It's fairly shallow and is likely to burn off after noon.

It doesn't look any different than we have been seeing.    And it won't be shallow or low and it won't completely burn off... per the ECMWF.    It will just be partly cloudy everywhere by afternoon.    I know exactly what you mean by a typical summer marine layer where its locked in around the Sound in the morning and burns off from all sides and completely disappears.   Wednesday won't be that at all.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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27 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It also snows during/around the time Andy gets brutally gang raped.

He never gets gang raped

 

edit - I haven’t watched in years but I thought he convinces them he’ll bite their ducks off or something so they just beat the crap out of him instead….maybe it’s implied they have their way with him after that or I’m just totally misremembering. You could be right

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

It doesn't look any different than we have been seeing.    And it won't be shallow or low and it won't completely burn off... per the ECMWF.    It will just be partly cloudy everywhere by afternoon.    I know exactly what you mean by a typical summer mariner layer where its locked in around the Sound in the morning and burns off from all sides and completely disappears.   Wednesday won't be that at all.  

image.png

7am... The whole lower column is very moist and there's a saturated layer around 5k ft up. Spotty drizzle.

image.png

10am... Trough begins to exit and drier air filters lower into the column. Important distinction, it it not mixing around 800-700mb, the drying is a result of differential advection. Regardless, the marine layer shallows due to the exiting trough, but remains vigilant below 5k ft. Cloudy skies remain with a moist column, though solar warming begins to mix the near sfc, below the PBL.

image.png

1pm... Solar heating maximizes as mixing occurs throughout the entire lower column. A saturated layer appears around 3-4k ft, this time representing fair weather cumulus, a result of sfc convection. DP's follow mixing ratio and thermals follow dry adiabat until the EL.

image.png

4pm... Drying progresses downward, further shallowing the marine layer. Afternoon heating further lowers RH, and because of the warmer layer aloft, sfc parcels can no longer make it high enough to condense. A completely sunny afternoon ensues.

It's very much a mixture of both. A stratoform marine layer erodes due to mixing, then turns cumuloform as sfc parcels convect via afternoon heating. Though in the evening, as a result of drier, warmer air advecting aloft, cumulus clouds fight an increasingly tough battle, and concede to blue skies. That is a result of the exiting trough in the morning and entering shortwave ridge in the afternoon. Could lead to an overperformance in high temps.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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