Jump to content

June 2022 - Summer Begins


TT-SEA

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I don't think Tim cares if it rains in December and January lol. Those months are kind of supposed to be very wet. June is completely different.

And in a dry Dec/Jan most of us are just going to be sitting under inversions 90% of the time anyway. Pretty difficult to get an extended sunny pattern in those months, and even in the occasion that you do the days are 8 hours long anyway.

This.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The funny thing is that the SW flow has really kept temps up recently and it hasn't been notably cool at all. Even Flatiron UHI oasis OLM is running slightly warmer than average month to date so far

Definitely a much nicer way to be in a rainy pattern.   If we have to have rain almost every day this is the way to do it.  Although tomorrow and Friday get pretty ridiculous again.    

  • Weenie 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Yeah it isn't looking that good for the central US in terms of drought. At the same time though, I hope that ridge doesn't retrograde too much and give us too much heat.

Is the drought situation that bad there? Seems like they have been getting a decent amount of rain lately. SW into Colorado seems to be the worst right now. I just looked at Tulsa and they are running about average for precip year to date. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Yeah it isn't looking that good for the central US in terms of drought. At the same time though, I hope that ridge doesn't retrograde too much and give us too much heat.

Don’t think it’ll retrograde much, at least through this month.

Will have to watch the MJO in July, if there’s a substantial wave into the West-Pacific it could temporarily retrograde westward. But that’s big “if”, and the background state hasn’t been favorable for prolonged MJO excursions there. So it would be very quick if it happened.

Also, since we’ll likely be developing a west-based -ENSO signature (with the eastern waters warming relative to the cooling western waters) the MJO isn’t favored to hang around in the WPAC for very long going forward.

The slow climb to warmer/drier in the PNW follows ENSO climo and mirrors the heavier La Niña summers with the canonical -PMM/retracted IPWP.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Week-2 is going to dry out soil moisture across much of the CONUS. Trying to figure a way this doesn’t trigger a feedback loop and perpetuate this pattern, but there aren’t any substantial MJOs projected in guidance for at least a month. Cringey.

D4A4378C-592D-40D1-8773-334780FDFDCF.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting to note that this recent pattern has led to warming off the water off the West Coast with SW flow ahead of the permanent trough over the GOA.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1 (7).png

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW the GEM is wetter than the GFS too. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This looks like a lot of rain for places that could certainly use it. gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_17.png

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
  • Like 7
  • Excited 1
  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Getting into the range where the GFS will probably make a significant correction within the next few cycles.

At which point it’ll (hopefully) be back on track. That error with the ridge off Baja California is throwing off the rest of the run.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Temps this month have been in the goldilocks zone. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Yeah, these temperatures are really comfortable. Not too hot.

And half the days have been dry. 

 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

And half the days have been dry. 

 

Yeah here they have been mostly dry except Saturday and Sunday. It would be better if the rain doesn't keep falling on weekends though! Otherwise I've been enjoying the weather this month.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, jakeinthevalley said:

Looking forward to a rather damp graduation this weekend at UW?!

We'll be dry under cover at Husky Stadium, but if my daughter is sitting on the field, she may need to revisit her outfit of choice!!

Decent chance its dry in Seattle on Saturday afternoon.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely a much nicer way to be in a rainy pattern.   If we have to have rain almost every day this is the way to do it.  Although tomorrow and Friday get pretty ridiculous again.    

Hawaii has rain showers every day, but they can be refreshing rather than freezing cold. 

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Pretty spectacular evening over here on the west side. 

Here too... had dinner on the deck.   A rare event this year so far.  

  • Like 5

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Here too... had dinner on the deck.   A rare event this year so far.  

Had a steak gathering the other day on the back porch. Very nice weather, just after the last thunderstorms left the area.

  • Like 2
  • Excited 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting how tomorrow has become the really wet day.   Most runs earlier had tomorrow still being dry.   Now Friday-Sunday don't look too wet... in western WA at least.

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting how tomorrow has become the really wet day.   Most runs earlier had tomorrow still being dry.   Now Friday-Sunday don't look too wet... in western WA at least.

It's so dry that my 7" guess on monthly rain is about to be blown out before the 15th. Darn this drought!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Is the drought situation that bad there? Seems like they have been getting a decent amount of rain lately. SW into Colorado seems to be the worst right now. I just looked at Tulsa and they are running about average for precip year to date. 

Oh yeah you're right about the rain they've been getting recently, so I think I'm wrong. Maybe some possible drought development looking at some of the forecasted precip anomalies for the summer? I'm not fully sure though. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Consensus seems to be building for a very damp weekend up here. GFS gives us about 2.5" EURO going with about 3.25" by late Sunday night. 

  • Like 3

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting how tomorrow has become the really wet day.   Most runs earlier had tomorrow still being dry.   Now Friday-Sunday don't look too wet... in western WA at least.

Indeed.  This run is much better for the weekend.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS has some colder / drier looking troughs coming up for week two.  Some pretty ridiculous minus temp anoms being shown, and then some possible warmth.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...