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June 2022 - Summer Begins


TT-SEA

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS has some colder / drier looking troughs coming up for week two.  Some pretty ridiculous minus temp anoms being shown, and then some possible warmth.

The operational was a huge outlier in the long range. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS has some colder / drier looking troughs coming up for week two.  Some pretty ridiculous minus temp anoms being shown, and then some possible warmth.

Sub 540 thicknesses next weekend. Would be unfortunate timing since I'll be at a music festival at The Gorge. Beats being 100 like it sometimes is out there this time of year though.

  • Snow 1

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Tim finally gets his 1988 repeat on the Euro.

The country burns, with no safe haven to escape to. Just the way he likes it.

B5CC5EC8-3CE3-4829-AC35-8AD71F2D39D1.png

 

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47 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS has some colder / drier looking troughs coming up for week two.  Some pretty ridiculous minus temp anoms being shown, and then some possible warmth.

Bring the heat. 80s and 90s would be so nice about now. 

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50 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The operational was a huge outlier in the long range. 

The ECMWF shows something similar in the closer range.  I think a chilly and relatively dry trough is pretty likely before any hot weather.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Better enjoy this forecast while I can.  Not sure how many we will have left to enjoy before summer.  Looks cool, which is perfect for outdoor days working in the yard, hiking, biking, walking, hard-core ham-boning!  

Screen Shot 2022-06-09 at 12.21.46 AM.png

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15 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Bring the heat. 80s and 90s would be so nice about now. 

No BC fire season this year?

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35 minutes ago, Phil said:

No BC fire season this year?

It’ll probably be a pretty quiet fire season.  Most of the province is on flood watch not fire watch atm.  Seasonal temperatures without much rain would probably be the best case scenario over the next few weeks. Bring the snow pack down slowly 

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Mostly cloudy with a low of 57 this morning. Looking like a soaker down here (for June) starting tonight through the first half of the weekend.

I would characterize the first 1/3 of June as warm, wet and humid. Most places are running decent positive departures month to date. Might be due for some cooler anomalies starting next week.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That said, the mild and wet weather has supercharged the vegetation the last few weeks. It’s about the lushest I’ve seen it this time of year since probably the early 2010s.

Agreed. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

Better enjoy this forecast while I can.  Not sure how many we will have left to enjoy before summer.  Looks cool, which is perfect for outdoor days working in the yard, hiking, biking, walking, hard-core ham-boning!  

Screen Shot 2022-06-09 at 12.21.46 AM.png

Good for hiking in a sweatshirt and jeans. Something like 72 is not too hot and not too cold.

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8 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

The three bears must be enjoying them too.

And this friend. 

72379920-9A5B-4B9B-8A53-37E937160F31.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 hours ago, Phil said:

Tim finally gets his 1988 repeat on the Euro.

The country burns, with no safe haven to escape to. Just the way he likes it.

B5CC5EC8-3CE3-4829-AC35-8AD71F2D39D1.png

 

Starting much later than in 1988.    I remember that year well and the grass was already dry and burnt in Minnesota by early June which is extremely unusual. 

Locally... I can't imagine a pattern right now that would result in 16-day period with only one day of rain totaling .05 here in the foothills of the WA Cascades.    But that is what happened from June 11-27 in 1988 even with a rare developing Nina in the spring.    Of course that is not unusual here in the summer, but seems unlikely this year.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Starting much later in the 1988.    I remember that year well and the grass was already dry and burnt in Minnesota by early June which is extremely unusual. 

Locally... I can't imagine a pattern that would result in 16-day period with only one day of rain totaling .05 here in the foothills of the WA Cascades.    But that is what happened from June 11-27 in 1988 even with a rare developing Nina in the spring.    Of course that is not unusual here in the summer, but seems unlikely this year.

May 2018 developed that pattern quite easily. Lol

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Nice pleasant early summer morn. Back to work from home on Thursdays. 

7B1D72E5-28FC-46B8-A54D-50E6C153911A.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We will see if we can break a rainfall record today…most rainfall I’ve recorded in a single day in June is 0.88” I believe…but never have hit a +1” total. Maybe we can do it today or get close. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Here is a comparison of SSTAs between right now and the same day in 1988.    And I know Phil is going to say the current Nina is stronger due to differential heating... but its still interesting.

 

2022 (2).png

1988.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

D*mn son. 

50E60999-396D-4FDD-ADBF-2A72753251CE.jpeg

It’s going to be impressive, and pretty far south too. The valleys will get quite a bit of shadowing. I wouldn’t be shocked if I-5 stations in W. Oregon are under an inch. We should get 2.5-3.5” up here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Major dumpage now. Glad I mowed yesterday. 

Just sprinkles here so far.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, GobBluth said:

GFS moves to a large ridge forecast, at hour 360. 

The GFS will probably show a clown range ridge every other run for the rest of summer. That’s the pattern it has been wanting to default to all spring and has busted each time.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is a comparison of SSTAs between right now and the same day in 1988.    And I know Phil is going to say the current Nina is stronger due to differential heating... but its still interesting.

 

2022 (2).png

1988.png

Also easy to see why 1988 was warmer/drier up there.

Those warm SSTAs south of the equator in the Indo-Pacific are a major driver of the pattern observed this spring/early summer, and were lacking in 1988.

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Each GFS run keeps upping precip totals down here. Now showing around 4" here through the weekend. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This run also showing snow for the high Cascades and Wallowas late Sunday night into Monday morning. By 5pm Monday this run gives us 4.37" of rain. Incredible totals in the Blues/Wallowas and across Northern Idaho. 

prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Each GFS run keeps upping precip totals down here. Now showing around 4" here through the weekend. 

Early on this run looks like a solid cave to the Euro/CMC. Feature off Baja Cali much less prominent. Maybe it won’t cut-off the next trough for once. 🤞

Edit: Close but maybe no cigar.

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Pretty cold trough next weekend. LOL

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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21 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

NWS Portland AFD mentioned that in terms of IVT values, this AR is in the top five in the past 10 years here.

Wonder where it ranks for June. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This is phenomenal. Widespread 4-6" totals in the Cascades. Our two wettest June's look like they are 1984 and 1947 by a large margin. Seems to be a chance we could get into the conversation with those ones if this were to pan out.  

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

If it verifies I might try to head to the eastern Gorge towards The Dalles and get a hike in. Probably will be much nicer over there.

My wife really wants to go camping soon. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s going to be impressive, and pretty far south too. The valleys will get quite a bit of shadowing. I wouldn’t be shocked if I-5 stations in W. Oregon are under an inch. We should get 2.5-3.5” up here. 

0.10” so far this morning…excited to see how much rain we manage by midnight I get the feeling we will break the June monthly total record and daily total record today. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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