June 2022 - Summer Begins

[RentonHill]

Good Spokane AFD

DISCUSSION...

...UNUSUALLY WET WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Today and Tonight: Our next multi-day period of wet weather will
begin today and persist into Monday. Rain will spread into the
Cascades this morning and become heavy along the Cascade Crest
this afternoon and evening. Precipitation guidance from the
Weather Prediction Center has trended wetter for the Cascades with
1.5 inches and 3 inches of rain along the Cascade Crest by Friday
morning. The combination of the spring melt and runoff from the
rain event over the next 24 hours will likely push the Stehekin
River above Flood Stage by this weekend. Other rivers fed by
runoff from the Crest will experience rises this weekend. The
Entiat is expected to go above Action Stage while the Wenatchee
and Methow Rivers will continue to flow swiftly.

Precipitation today and tonight will be delivered to our region by
an atmospheric river. This phenomenon is common in the fall and
winter, but quite unusual in June. An abnormally strong Polar Jet
with a core of wind speeds between 100-130kts will be directed
over the Washington Cascades today and tonight. With origins from
the subtropics, our plume of moisture will feature precipitable 
water values of 1 to 1.25 inches (200 percent of normal). The 
combination of strong southwesterly flow and deep moisture will 
drench the Cascades and likely deliver a quarter to half inch of 
rain to mountainous portions of northeast Washington and far north
Idaho.

Friday and Saturday: Moisture will continue to be pumped into
Oregon, Idaho, and Washington Friday and Saturday. Precipitable 
water values will remain high Fri and Fri night (1 to 1.25 
inches). Fortunately for the Washington Cascades, the atmospheric 
river will sink southward into Oregon. Rain amounts for Friday 
into Friday night should be less than an inch for the Cascade 
Crest. However, Friday into Saturday will be quite wet for the
Idaho Panhandle as the rich plume of moisture is lifted over the
mountainous terrain. Ensemble based guidance suggests that the
high terrain of Shoshone county will have a 50 to 60 percent
chance of an inch of rain between Friday morning and Sunday
morning. Valley locations will have a high chance of a half inch
during that same time frame.

The environment the next several days is different than the
environment we had last weekend. The instability profile and 
winds aloft are much different. The flash flooding events of June 
3 and 5 featured weaker flow aloft and deep instability resulting
in slow moving thunderstorms. The environment the next few days 
will not have much surface based CAPE and winds aloft will be 
pretty strong. Much of the precipitation will be forced 
orographically. Rain rates in the mountains may be high at times, 
but not as intense as what we saw with thunderstorms last weekend.
We will be keeping an eye on Saturday's instability since there
should be breaks in the clouds to aid in low level destabilization.
But at this time, model soundings do not look impressive with 
lackluster mid-level lapse rates suggesting weak updrafts. /GKoch

Sunday through Monday: This period exhibits a considerable amount of 
model variability and notable run-to-run inconsistency. The 00z 
ECMWF would suggest a rather wet period in store for much of the 
CWA, as a potent shortwave trough off the Pacific Northwest coast 
acquires a negative tilt as it approaches the Inland Northwest 
Sunday evening. The 00z GFS is considerably faster, with development 
of a closed low entering southern Canada by 12z Monday and most 
precipitation directed south and east of the area. The 00z CMC is in 
between the faster GFS and slower ECMWF solutions. The character of 
each of the model ensemble suites would suggest that the ECMWF 
deterministic solution is on the slow/wet side, whereas the GFS is 
on the fast/dry side. Considering typical model biases (GFS often 
too progressive; ECMWF often too sluggish with deep troughs), think 
a consensus/ensemble-based approach is best for this period. 
However, think the NBM guidance is too dry, as it often computes 
PoPs that are much too low in these wet patterns. The deterministic 
CMC (a roughly middle-of-the-road solution) is also much lower with 
QPF than the ensemble mean for our region. With all of this in mind, 
increased PoPs for the CWA for the Sunday through Monday period by a 
general broad brush of ten percent or so (which may yet be 
conservative). Noteworthy here is that the trajectory of this system 
from a more southerly/southwesterly direction would favor less of a 
rain shadow east of the Cascades than the predecessor events; thus, 
PoPs are mentionable for the lower Columbia Basin for this period.

The strength of this system, particularly as it comes on the heels 
of a wet period late this week into Saturday, makes me a little 
concerned about heavy-rain potential. Consider the following: By 
late-day Monday, the deterministic ECMWF has almost two inches of 
precipitation accumulated at KGEG (i.e., Thursday through Monday). 
Though this is almost twice the EC ensemble mean, the large spread 
above the ensemble mean indicates the potential for heavy rainfall. 
This would be particularly problematic in the higher terrain, for 
obvious reasons. It is worth keeping a close eye on this period, as 
pattern recognition suggests potential for some localized flooding. 
Such potential would be exacerbated by any embedded convection that 
can develop, though model soundings so far exhibit very little 
instability.

Monday has the potential to be rather cool as the trough swings 
through the region. Highs may be mostly in the 60s in the lower 
elevations, with 40s and 50s in the higher terrain.

Monday night through Thursday: Deterministic and ensemble solutions 
are not in good agreement for this period, with considerable timing 
differences noted among the various models. There should be a period 
of shortwave ridging in the Tuesday-Wednesday time period, though 
there is at least a subset of solutions that depict at least higher-
terrain shower activity on one or both days. By Thursday, a deep 
trough should pivot toward the West Coast, but there is large 
variability in its speed/depth. This would hint at increasing 
chances of precipitation late in the week, but given the large 
uncertainty by this point, near-climatological PoPs seem warranted 
for Thursday. The overall pattern evolution would favor warming 
temperatures from the anomalously cool conditions expected on 
Monday, but most of the extended period should remain below average. 
/CMS

[RentonHill]

12z Euro already upped totals for today by 0.2-0.3

[Skagit Weather]

8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

12z Euro already upped totals for today by 0.2-0.3

I'm pretty sure the 12z drier than the 00z last night though.

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I'm pretty sure the 12z drier than the 00z last night though.

Yes def for you I think.

[Anti Marine Layer]

I dare DareDuck to post something about the potential for heavy rainfall (or the lack thereof) in their backyard over the next few days.

[Phishy Wx]

Junuary rolls on...

 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

0.22” as of noon today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Models now converging on another wet weekend next week. LOL

[SouthHillFrosty]

My gf asked if I set up the sprinkler system for the yard yet

[TacomaWaWx]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Models now converging on another wet weekend next week. LOL

Let the good times roll! 

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

My gf asked if I set up the sprinkler system for the yard yet

I thought about maybe this weekend.  nope.  Gunna wait until July probably

somehow Spokane is still slightly below normal on annual rainfall

[MossMan]

Up to .32” on the day. 
Mountains keep popping up in my driveway…I have a lot of projects to do/complete. 

Edited June 9, 2022 by MossMan

[TacomaWaWx]

Mossmans still got some rain related sickness it appears! Up to 0.28” now. 

[MossMan]

29 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Mossmans still got some rain related sickness it appears! Up to 0.28” now. 

Yeah it’s another day of uncontrollable vomiting.

Now getting random strong gusts of wind on top of the moderate rain…A November to remember! 

[Blizzard777]

Green echoes on radar equal motivation for another road-trip ! 

.27 and 56* 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

76F and cloudy. Occasionally a sprinkle.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

53°F and moderate rain, a typical early November afternoon. 0.38" and counting.

[TT-SEA]

57 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah it’s another day of uncontrollable vomiting.

Now getting random strong gusts of wind on top of the moderate rain…A November to remember! 

We are playing the long game now Randy.  I think the pattern might finally transition to a more favorable summer-like set up after next weekend... guessing around 6/21 which is timed well with the actual beginning of astronomical summer.   And right when the days start getting shorter!    But hey... we have to take what we can get this year.   

[RentonHill]

Weeklies

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We are playing the long game now Randy.  I think the pattern might finally transition to a more favorable summer-like set up after next weekend... guessing around 6/21 which is timed well with the actual beginning of astronomical summer.   And right when the days start getting shorter!    But hey... we have to take what we can get this year.   

I think there might be a window in early/mid July with warmer than average temperatures based on the Euro weeklies.

There are hints of an MJO orbit through the west-central Pacific around that time. This is what I look for in pin-pointing western warmth.

If it happens, then there could be a 1-2 week interlude from the background state next month. Doesn’t mean it will verify, but there’s a window opening up there.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Weeklies

Terrain feedback... heat differential...  blah blah blah.  

I think we will look back and say summer really started during the last week of June this year.    

Side note... the above is not a rip on Phil.   He has actually been nailing it for the last few months.  

 

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think there might be a window in early/mid July with warmer than average temperatures based on the Euro weeklies.

There are hints of an MJO orbit through the west-central Pacific around that time. This is what I look for in pin-pointing western warmth.

If it happens, then there could be a 1-2 week interlude from the background state next month. Doesn’t mean it will verify, but there’s a window opening up there.

I think you are saying something different.   You are talking about the potential for a genuine warm spell and that would be fine... but some of us are just looking for the nearly daily rain to end which is when it starts actually feeling like summer around here.  Looks like it will rain on 8 or 9 of the next 10 days which is not summer-like.  We can have a summery pattern with temps around normal or even cooler than normal... all we need is dry days to become the default and that happens almost every summer.  The only question is when will it happen.

[Anti Marine Layer]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think you are saying something different.   You are talking about the potential for a genuine warm spell and that would be fine... but some of us are just looking for the nearly daily rain to end which is when it starts actually feeling like summer around here.  Looks like it will rain on 8 or 9 of the next 10 days which is not summer-like.  We can have a summery pattern with temps around normal or even cooler than normal... all we need is dry days to become the default and that happens almost every summer.  The only question is when will it happen.

Year without a summer? 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

0.10” so far this morning…excited to see how much rain we manage by midnight I get the feeling we will break the June monthly total record and daily total record today. 

I sure hope we do! If it’s this chilly and wet, might as well get some records to show for it.

[Phil]

26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Terrain feedback... heat differential...  blah blah blah.  

I think we will look back and say summer really started during the last week of June this year.    

Side note... the above is not a rip on Phil.   He has actually been nailing it for the last few months.  

 

I’ve actually been underestimating the troughing. Lol.

And yes, the EPS weeklies are notorious for over-emphasizing the 4CH influence in NW North America.

For example, here’s the trend for June 22nd over last month. Note the correction with time.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ve actually been underestimating the troughing. Lol.

And yes, the EPS weeklies are notorious for over-emphasizing the 4CH influence in NW North America.

For example, here’s the trend for June 22nd over last month. Note the correction with time.

On the other hand... the last week of June has actually become a little less troughy over the last 3 runs of the weeklies.   Just because it has a bias or tendency does not mean it will always end up much more troughy than shown.    

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

On the other hand... the last week of June has actually become a little less troughy over the last 3 runs of the weeklies.   Just because it has a bias or tendency does not mean it will always end up much more troughy than shown.    

That is true as well. And it’s very unlikely the entire summer is wall to wall troughing; some of that ridging is likely to verify.

But that stationary reservoir of heat over NW-North America is largely a model artifact.

[Meatyorologist]

Absolutely dumping rain out there… And this previous “break” which appeared to be coming in earlier has since been filled in by yet more rain bands.

Shadowing has been strangely weak and does not incluce my house. It’s a thin band covering a line from Port Gamble to Everett, and even then it’s inconsistent and only comprised of just lighter rain, not a cessation.

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

That is true as well. And it’s very unlikely the entire summer is wall to wall troughing; some of that ridging is likely to verify.

But that stationary reservoir of heat over NW-North America is largely a model artifact.

A big ridge over the PNW is the not only way to get summer-like weather here.    

Look at July 1988 for example.    That month ended up -1.8 at SEA but it only rained on 4 days and on 5 days out here in the foothills.    In other words... dry days became the default.    It happens almost every summer.    

[TacomaWaWx]

0.60” so far today. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Currently getting a heavy drizzle first real break in the rain all day. 

[BLI snowman]

The long range ridging is the arctic front carrot in the midst of a +EPO winter. SW flow is here to stay guys.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The long range ridging is the arctic front carrot in the midst of a +EPO winter. SW flow is here to stay guys.

Lol, out here troughing is the carrot.

Upcoming pattern looks life force draining. Death ridge city.

[Blizzard777]

Washing my car in the rain today did not improve the conditions one way or another…..thoughts? 
 

May as well race TacomaWaWx in the rain bucket challenge

.68 and 55*

 

[Blizzard777]

Is it muggy out?

[T-Town]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

0.60” so far today. 

Noice…. I’m ready for some sunny and 75 now, but if we’re going to have an AR in June, I say let’s make it memorable. 

[RentonHill]

blessed

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, T-Town said:

Noice…. I’m ready for some sunny and 75 now, but if we’re going to have an AR in June, I say let’s make it memorable. 

Lot more rain coming gonna be a record breaker for this time of year. 

[Meatyorologist]

It's been either 55 or 54 since 7am LOL

[TT-SEA]

SEA should be above normal for the entire month of June by the end of the day.