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June 2022 - Summer Begins


TT-SEA

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June is 18th wettest on record with 21 days to go lmao

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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10 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

And for the water year it's 5th wettest start of all time (at KSEA). Which to be honest is less than I was thinking based on all the moaning. Yes, this level of wetness is unusual, but not super unprecedented (although June could end up unprecedented if it keeps raining). The precip could very well shut off any day now and the water year wouldn't end up particularly remarkable even if we picked up average rainfall for July-Sept.

1747269064_ScreenShot2022-06-10at7_54_41AM.png.285a03de0f983faf5c2202d11af99541.png

If the rain stopped today... most places would still end up significantly wetter than normal for the water year.

And obviously its also about the persistence of the pattern since late March which has been very remarkable.   2016-17 and 2015-16 did not drag out through June... which makes a big difference.     When you have rain almost every day for 3 months starting in April when its supposed to go in other direction then it becomes very noticeable to most people.    No idea why this is hard to understand.    

Interesting that 3 of the top 5 are within the last 6 years.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If the rain stopped today... most places would still end up significantly wetter than normal for the water year.

And obviously its also about the persistence of the pattern since late March which has been very remarkable.   2016-17 and 2015-16 did not drag out through June... which makes a big difference.     When you have rain almost every day for 3 months starting in April when its supposed to go in other direction then it becomes very noticeable to most people.    No idea why this is hard to understand.    

Interesting that 3 of the top 5 are within the last 6 years.

image.gif.c6aa5f7d0a9f03f40b0c96840bc85802.gif

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If the rain stopped today... most places would still end up significantly wetter than normal for the water year.

And obviously its also about the persistence of the pattern since late March which has been very remarkable.   2016-17 and 2015-16 did not drag out through June... which makes a big difference.     When you have rain almost every day for 3 months starting in April when its supposed to go in other direction then it becomes very noticeable to most people.    No idea why this is hard to understand.    

Interesting that 3 of the top 5 are within the last 6 years.

You are coming across as very combative towards what is a very objective and innocent post from meaty. Just FYI. He made an interesting point. You seem to be fighting it very hard with a related, but different point that nobody is arguing with you about. Just my 2c here. 

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23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If the rain stopped today... most places would still end up significantly wetter than normal for the water year.

And obviously its also about the persistence of the pattern since late March which has been very remarkable.   2016-17 and 2015-16 did not drag out through June... which makes a big difference.     When you have rain almost every day for 3 months starting in April when its supposed to go in other direction then it becomes very noticeable to most people.    No idea why this is hard to understand.    

Interesting that 3 of the top 5 are within the last 6 years.

image.png.53f58997012c82e4a8f7582c51f3e201.png

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2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

You are coming across as very combative towards what is a very objective and innocent post from meaty. Just FYI. He made an interesting point. You seem to be fighting it very hard with a related, but different point that nobody is arguing with you about. Just my 2c here. 

That was a response to Skagit.   😀

 

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

You are coming across as very combative towards what is a very objective and innocent post from meaty. Just FYI. He made an interesting point. You seem to be fighting it very hard with a related, but different point that nobody is arguing with you about. Just my 2c here. 

It's not just that I was making my own interesting point. It's that my point literally reinforced Tim's comments on how wet it's been recently.

My point was that this Spring and early summer have been so wet that they've overpowered a month and a half long record dry streak during the heart of the wet season... That it's rained a lot, and on a lot of days. Just as he's been saying.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Welp bois, today is my graduation day for my masters program (I still have one quarter left doe). Can’t wait to be done🎓

 

Happy Dance GIF by FIU

Hell yeah!!!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Welp bois, today is my graduation day for my masters program (I still have one quarter left doe). Can’t wait to be done🎓

 

Happy Dance GIF by FIU

Looks sunny and warm, I want to go there. 
Oh and Congrats!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Welp bois, today is my graduation day for my masters program (I still have one quarter left doe). Can’t wait to be done🎓

 

Happy Dance GIF by FIU

Congrats man!    I mentioned before that I use you as a role model for my sons.     Buying a house and getting your masters simultaneously at such a young age is very impressive! 

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's not just that I was making my own interesting point. It's that my point literally reinforced Tim's comments on how wet it's been recently.

My point was that this Spring and early summer have been so wet that they've overpowered a month and a half long record dry streak during the heart of the wet season... That it's rained a lot, and on a lot of days. Just as he's been saying.

I know.   I just don't think that "massive dry stretch" would stand out to anyone during two months with measurable rain on half the days and both months ended up significantly wetter than normal.     But stats are stats.   👍

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15 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't think he lives in Spokane. 

I'm in the foothills near Lewiston, but in WA. But same general summer as Spokane, maybe a bit warmer. 

0.24 inches of rain when we woke up. 

Last day of school here. I always think it odd when the school starts at 8am and ends at 10am on the last day. Stanwood SD on the west side, where Randy is does the same thing. Is that to give kids one last breakfast?

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

I'm in the foothills near Lewiston, but in WA. But same general summer as Spokane, maybe a bit warmer. 

0.24 inches of rain when we woke up. 

Last day of school here. I always think it odd when the school starts at 8am and ends at 10am on the last day. Stanwood SD on the west side, where Randy is does the same thing. Is that to give kids one last breakfast?

Just time enough to pack up and say goodbyes.  

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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Congrats man!    I mentioned before that I use you as a role model for my sons.     Buying a house and getting your masters simultaneously at such a young age is very impressive! 

I appreciate it🙏🙏💯

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I know.   I just don't think that "massive dry stretch" would stand out to anyone during two months with measurable rain on half the days and both months ended up significantly wetter than normal.     But stats are stats.   👍

You're looking at this from the perspective of monthly totals. I'm looking at this from the perspective of, you know, an extended stretch of weather which happened to be very, very dry. Which most of us seem to remember quite well.

Stats are stats, sure. But certain stats have different weaknesses, and this case profoundly shows how cumulative monthly precipitation can be misleading. A small number of wet days in this instance boosted both January's and February's monthly totals to well above normal, despite the majority of that two month period being spent under a very dry, very ridgy regime. I'm not trying to sound condescending, and I'm not trying to spin a narrative, this time. But I just don't know how I could possibly make my point any clearer.

80% of February's rainfall came in two days, at the very end of the month. Do you think it's fair to call February wet? I think not. February had 18 days without any measurable precipitation; I know you love that stat! That isn't a record but it was a majority of the month and far above normal (around 11.) More than half of February was completely dry, barring a few immeasurable traces here and there... stuff that evaporates easily under the increasingly powerful late winter sun. From the perspective of someone living through that month (all of us, hopefully), dryness defined February, not that one massive honkin' AR which doused the region for a grand total of two days.

January is admittedly less extreme of a case, since the whole first half of the month was very rainy, not just a select few days. But the rest of the month set the tone for the vast majority of the February to come.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

You're looking at this from the perspective of monthly totals. I'm looking at this from the perspective of, you know, an extended stretch of weather which happened to be very, very dry. Which most of us seem to remember quite well.

Stats are stats, sure. But certain stats have different weaknesses, and this case profoundly shows how cumulative monthly precipitation can be misleading. A small number of wet days in this instance boosted both January's and February's monthly totals to well above normal, despite the majority of that two month period being spent under a very dry, very ridgy regime. I'm not trying to sound condescending, and I'm not trying to spin a narrative, this time. But I just don't know how I could possibly make my point any clearer.

80% of February's rainfall came in two days, at the very end of the month. Do you think it's fair to call February wet? I think not. February had 18 days without any measurable precipitation; I know you love that stat! That isn't a record but it was a majority of the month and far above normal (around 11.) More than half of February was completely dry, barring a few immeasurable traces here and there... stuff that evaporates easily under the increasingly powerful late winter sun. From the perspective of someone living through that month (all of us, hopefully), dryness defined February, not that one massive honkin' AR which doused the region for a grand total of two days.

January is admittedly less extreme of a case, since the whole first half of the month was very rainy, not just a select few days. But the rest of the month set the tone for the vast majority of the February to come.

Our longest dry stretch of the year was from Jan 21st to 29th, and it's June right now! Pretty interesting.

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

You're looking at this from the perspective of monthly totals. I'm looking at this from the perspective of, you know, an extended stretch of weather which happened to be very, very dry. Which most of us seem to remember quite well.

Stats are stats, sure. But certain stats have different weaknesses, and this case profoundly shows how cumulative monthly precipitation can be misleading. A small number of wet days in this instance boosted both January's and February's monthly totals to well above normal, despite the majority of that two month period being spent under a very dry, very ridgy regime. I'm not trying to sound condescending, and I'm not trying to spin a narrative, this time. But I just don't know how I could possibly make my point any clearer.

80% of February's rainfall came in two days, at the very end of the month. Do you think it's fair to call February wet? I think not. February had 18 days without any measurable precipitation; I know you love that stat! That isn't a record but it was a majority of the month and far above normal (around 11.) More than half of February was completely dry, barring a few immeasurable traces here and there... stuff that evaporates easily under the increasingly powerful late winter sun. From the perspective of someone living through that month (all of us, hopefully), dryness defined February, not that one massive honkin' AR which doused the region for a grand total of two days.

January is admittedly less extreme of a case, since the whole first half of the month was very rainy, not just a select few days. But the rest of the month set the tone for the vast majority of the February to come.

I just think that period is a drier than normal blip in what has been a very period overall since last September.   Its just semantics.     Ask around if anyone else remembers how dry it was in the middle of winter... outside of this forum.    Rain on 10 days in February compared to a normal of 15 days is not exactly memorable.    Although I do agree... February was a pretty nice month and most of the rain came on a couple days which I enjoy.  

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GFS does not show much rain up here tomorrow or Sunday... but Sunday will be much cooler with the trough moving inland.  

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4 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Our longest dry stretch of the year was from Jan 21st to 29th, and it's June right now! Pretty interesting.

Longest dry stretch here was February 8-13.    Pretty crazy.   

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I just think that period is a drier than normal blip in what has been a very period overall since last September.   Its just semantics.     Ask around if anyone else remembers how dry it was in the middle of winter... outside of this forum.    Rain on 10 days in February compared to a normal of 15 days is not exactly memorable.    Although I do agree... February was a pretty nice month and most of the rain came on a couple days which I enjoy.  

Ah yes, the typical forty three day blip.

But you're probably right in that only weenies like us remember that dry stretch. And it's surrounded by incredibly wet weather, dating back to September in WA. December technically came in as drier than normal at KSEA, but it's actually a comically opposite example of February. What 'little wealth' that month had was spread across many days in the form of very light rain and drizzle, then snowfall. And the colder, cloudier weather prevented much of it from evaporating, so the soil moisture deficit was negligible if not zero.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Got back from PHX last night. It was nearly half the temp when I landed than when I took off.

110 degrees is very hot BUT I've learned that if you are wearing appropriate clothing and guzzling water it isn't too bad to just stand around in. I did some plane spotting from the top of the PHX parking garage (much better vantage point that the SEA garage) for about an hour for two straight days and, yeah I was sweating, but I think I can handle it okay. Air conditioning is very nice.

We've chosen all the design features for our house and I got to see our lot. Very exciting stuff!

 

2020-04-13 - Edmonds-647.jpg

2020-04-13 - Edmonds-648.jpg

2020-04-13 - Edmonds-642.jpg

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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Noticing the GFS and EURO ensembles are both much wetter than the operational runs for next weekend. Could start to see a trend in that direction soon. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Noticing the GFS and EURO ensembles are both much wetter than the operational runs for next weekend. Could start to see a trend in that direction soon. 

I was going to mention that the new 12Z GFS is really nice for next week.   Eventually something has to work out in favor of dry.   I am sure it won't... but I can dream.  😀

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10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Ah yes, the typical forty three day blip.

But you're probably right in that only weenies like us remember that dry stretch. And it's surrounded by incredibly wet weather, dating back to September in WA. December technically came in as drier than normal at KSEA, but it's actually a comically opposite example of February. What 'little wealth' that month had was spread across many days in the form of very light rain and drizzle, then snowfall. And the colder, cloudier weather prevented much of it from evaporating, so the soil moisture deficit was negligible if not zero.

If public consciousness is the benchmark we're using as a substitute for objective data on here, then it's probably worth pointing out that most non-weather people can't remember what the weather was doing past last weekend. Outside of usually highly exaggerated and generally inaccurate claims about specific events e.g. "we had like 2 feet of snow in Seattle in late December".

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I was going to mention that the new 12Z GFS is really nice for next week.   Eventually something has to work out in favor of dry.   I am sure it won't... but I can dream.  😀

Starting to look like the 17th-22nd will be our first real window for extended ridging in almost three months.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was going to mention that the new 12Z GFS is really nice for next week.   Eventually something has to work out in favor of dry.   I am sure it won't... but I can dream.  😀

It was pretty nice this week and last week. Just the weekends we've been struggling with. At least down here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Starting to look like the 17th-22nd will be our first real window for extended ridging in almost three months.

Obviously Phil will be going off soon about how wrong the GFS is... and he will probably be right again.

But it is interesting to note than significant rain events in June led quickly to drier weather in both 2017 and 2021.   

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It was pretty nice this week and last week. Just the weekends we've been struggling with. At least down here. 

Weekends have been an issue lately.     Tuesdays have been the consistent nice day for the last couple of weeks.     Wednesday was quite nice this week as well. 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Obviously Phil will be going off soon about how wrong the GFS is... and he will probably be right again.

But it is interesting to note than significant rain events in June led quickly to drier weather in both 2017 and 2021.   

 

And those are probably better analogs than 1988 or 1955 or -3000 or whatever Phil wants to throw around... Still have deep doubts in my heart that this summer will be cooler than normal, given climo this last decade. But a week or so of ridgy weather doesn't necessarily portend the same entirely torchy summers of yesteryears. Even June 2011 began with a several day ridge.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z GFS cutoff error next weekend.

Take it to the bank.

Thar she blows!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Obviously Phil will be going off soon about how wrong the GFS is... and he will probably be right again.

But it is interesting to note than significant rain events in June led quickly to drier weather in both 2017 and 2021.   

 

GFS looks fine until Thursday.

That’s an ugly looking error on Friday w/ the incoming wave, though.

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

And those are probably better analogs than 1988 or 1955 or -3000 or whatever Phil wants to throw around... Still have deep doubts in my heart that this summer will be cooler than normal, given climo this last decade. But a week or so of ridgy weather doesn't necessarily portend the same entirely torchy summers of yesteryears. Even June 2011 began with a several day ridge.

Spring “climo” was warm/dry over the last decade as well. If we’d used that argument to predict this spring it would have been dead wrong.

How many solidly cool/wet La Niña springs have gone onto feature warm/dry summers up there? I can’t find any matches, though I’m sure it’s happened at some point over the last millennium. 😂

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Spring “climo” was warm/dry over the last decade as well. If we’d used that argument to predict this spring it would have been dead wrong.

How many solidly cool/wet La Niña springs have gone onto feature warm/dry summers up there? I can’t find any matches, though I’m sure it’s happened at some point over the last millennium. 😂

Call it superstition... Or maybe PTSD? :lol:

  • lol 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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