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June 2022 - Summer Begins


TT-SEA

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Sorry to say... but that sounds nice right about now.  

Also... if the climate is really warming then this spring is just a blip and doesn't change our trajectory.    Or even slow it down much.   

I hope by this you mean a warm day. Because if that's literal, then my god.

And yes, nothing about this Spring changes our trajectory. It is a blip, and would have been a blip even if 1961-90 climo had persisted.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I hope by this you mean a warm day. Because if that's literal, then my god.

And yes, nothing about this Spring changes our trajectory. It is a blip, and would have been a blip even if 1961-90 climo had persisted.

Yes... my current sentiment is mostly related to the crappy weather we have had since April.   

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Although... there is room for debate on whether warming is even a net negative for the planet.    This article makes a case that the benefits might outweigh the costs until about 2080.   

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-climate-change-is-good-for-the-world#:~:text=The chief benefits of global,fewer droughts%3B maybe richer biodiversity.

The increase in average carbon dioxide levels over the past century, from 0.03 per cent to 0.04 per cent of the air, has had a measurable impact on plant growth rates. It is responsible for a startling change in the amount of greenery on the planet. As Dr Ranga Myneni of Boston University has documented, using three decades of satellite data, 31 per cent of the global vegetated area of the planet has become greener and just 3 per cent has become less green. This translates into a 14 per cent increase in productivity of ecosystems and has been observed in all vegetation types.

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Up to 0.63" on the day, 6.13" for June, about 1/4" away from 2010. Once we surpass that it will be the wettest June since 1984. In 13th for all-time wet June's right now, but not far from the top 10, Record is over 9" so probably won't get there looking at the model trends. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Cold airmass coming in the next few days, if we get any decent clearing Monday or Tuesday night we could see some upper 30s. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Another rainy, dreary, miserable day in Seattle. We picked up 0.02” of rain between midnight and 2am. Sure, the morning had sun breaks, the afternoon was party cloudy and 70 degrees and now it’s almost clear. I spent the entire afternoon in a friends back yard in shorts and drinking Rosé, but alas, it will go in the record books as a rainy day. Thanks Tim for tracking this for us!  

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14 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

Another rainy, dreary, miserable day in Seattle. We picked up 0.02” of rain between midnight and 2am. Sure, the morning had sun breaks, the afternoon was party cloudy and 70 degrees and now it’s almost clear. I spent the entire afternoon in a friends back yard in shorts and drinking Rosé, but alas, it will go in the record books as a rainy day. Thanks Tim for tracking this for us!  

This is a completely silly post.   It rained here this morning as well... and it was a gorgeous afternoon.   I am well aware that not every day with rain is cloudy and wet all day.   And yet the rain has been off the charts persistent since April out here... in terms of historical context.

It is a very interesting statistic to track... particularly out here where troughiness almost always means some rain.    Looking at the stats for the Snoqualmie Valley... you can clearly see rainy patterns and dry patterns.   We don't just get lucky with a week of dry weather while its raining everywhere else.  And even out here its a 50/50 split on average over the course of the year.   It is by far the most important statistic for me in terms of judging a month or a season.   Not even close.    And it has been absolutely remarkable in terms of persistent since the March 29th.   

And thanks for bringing this up again!   I am sure everyone wants to hear about it.    I have never said every day with measurable rain is miserable. 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is a completely silly post.   It rained here this morning as well... and it was a gorgeous afternoon.   I am well aware that not every day with rain is cloudy and wet all day.   And yet the rain has been off the charts persistent since April out here... in terms of historical context.

It is a very interesting statistic to track... particularly out here where troughiness almost always means some rain.    Looking at the stats for the Snoqualmie Valley... you can clearly see rainy patterns and dry patterns.   We don't just get lucky with a week of dry weather while its raining everywhere else.  And even out here its a 50/50 split on average over the course of the year.   It is by far the most important statistic for me in terms of judging a month or a season.   Not even close.    And it has been absolutely remarkable in terms of persistent since the March 29th.   

Silly in what way?  I a) noted my own personal weather observations of the day and the impact had on my enjoyment of the day and b) noted how the weather records will actually record it and c) thanked you for your diligence in tracking b. I’m…sorry?  How am I supposed to be using this forum if not for that?  

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5 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

Silly in what way?  I a) noted my own personal weather observations of the day and the impact had on my enjoyment of the day and b) noted how the weather records will actually record it and c) thanked you for your diligence in tracking b. I’m…sorry?  How am I supposed to be using this forum if not for that?  

More silly.   Just my observation though.  👍

I am pretty sure if you asked 100 people what has been unusual about the weather this spring... something about persistent rain would probably be mentioned 98 or 99 times.   Its a silly statistic and yet everyone intuitively knows it. 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

More silly.   Just my observation though.  👍

I am pretty sure if you asked 100 people what has been unusual about the weather this spring... something about persistent rain would probably be mentioned 98 or 99 times.   Its a silly statistic and yet everyone intuitively knows it. 

I…never said the rain wasn’t persistent or that it hasn’t rained more or more often than normal. I would be one of the 99. But acting like just because a day records rain makes it “rainy” or miserable is …silly. Today is a perfect example of why that particular metric is misleading. Total rainfall or rainfall % of normal do just fine. 

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14 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

I…never said the rain wasn’t persistent or that it hasn’t rained more or more often than normal. I would be one of the 99. But acting like just because a day records rain makes it “rainy” or miserable is …silly. Today is a perfect example of why that particular metric is misleading. Total rainfall or rainfall % of normal do just fine. 

Misleading in what way?    I have never acted like or said that every day with measurable rain is miserable.   But it is a rather unusual aspect of the weather since late March.   How you feel about it is sort of irrelevant.   Some people have loved the unusually persistent rain.

And living out here, its the best overall gauge of the weather for me.    You tell me that a month had 150% of normal rainfall and it came on two days... then I am pretty sure I would have enjoyed that month.    Tell we had 75% of normal rainfall on 28 days and its the opposite.   But that is just me. 

Total rain is obviously a very important statistic too.   

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Misleading in what way?    I have never acted like or said that every day with measurable rain is miserable.   But it is a rather unusual aspect of the weather since late March.   How you feel about it is sort of irrelevant.   Some people have loved the unusually persistent rain.

And living out here, its the best overall gauge of the weather for me.    You tell me that a month had 150% of normal rainfall and it came on two days... then I am pretty sure I would have enjoyed that month.    Tell we had 75% of normal rainfall on 28 days and its the opposite.   But that is just me. 

Total rain is obviously a very important statistic too.   

Misleading in that it treats rain/no rain on a day as a binary where the amount and timing of rain dramatically impacts the actual human experience of it. If I had to pick a metric to go along with total rainfall to summarize the experience, I’d go with solar radiation. You could have 10 “rainy days” with 0.25” each day with virtually full solar radiation received at the surface vs 10 “rainy days” with 0.25” each day and  only 20% of potential solar radiation received (based on when it actually rains) and that will dramatically impact your “asking 100 people” answers. Whereas if you got 10 “rainy days” with 100% solar radiation va 10 “non-rainy” days with 100% solar radiation, the answers would be virtually the same. 

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10 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

 

Misleading in that it treats rain/no rain on a day as a binary where the amount and timing of rain dramatically impacts the actual human experience of it. If I had to pick a metric to go along with total rainfall to summarize the experience, I’d go with solar radiation. You could have 10 “rainy days” with 0.25” each day with virtually full solar radiation received at the surface vs 10 “rainy days” with 0.25” each day and  only 20% of potential solar radiation received (based on when it actually rains) and that will dramatically impact your “asking 100 people” answers. Whereas if you got 10 “rainy days” with 100% solar radiation va 10 “non-rainy” days with 100% solar radiation, the answers would be virtually the same. 

Solar radiation would be another good statistic... very good in fact.   But its really hard data to find and track accurately.  

You are also talking about how people feel about the weather again.    My point in tracking the persistent rain is that these long periods of days with measurable rain are usually offset by long periods of dry days and that takes an entirely different pattern to produce... particularly out here.   Stealing a nice day and still getting measurable rain is a bonus.   Because the offset will still come eventually.   

Days with rain is a pretty good approximation of cloud cover most of the time though.   And its very easy to track.   We have had unusually persistent rain since late March and in that Ag Weather video the other day he showed a map that tracks solar radiation and the entire PNW was running huge deficits in terms of normal sunshine over the last 2 months.  Which of course impacts agriculture and was his point for showing it. 

 

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47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

More silly.   Just my observation though.  👍

I am pretty sure if you asked 100 people what has been unusual about the weather this spring... something about persistent rain would probably be mentioned 98 or 99 times.   Its a silly statistic and yet everyone intuitively knows it. 

Even I do

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00Z GFS does not have any cut-off issues... but its still quite dry once we get past Tuesday.    It looks like a fairly seasonable pattern (leaning cool) but without the rain almost every day.   This is what Jim has been talking about as well.   

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I like it when sunsets are obscured by clouds, I just wish cameras could really capture sunsets.  This one was cool because of the clouds and the colors that gleamed from behind them!  Hope you all had a wonderful Saturday!  55F here.

2022-06-11 21.33.13.jpg

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Misleading in what way?    I have never acted like or said that every day with measurable rain is miserable.   But it is a rather unusual aspect of the weather since late March.   How you feel about it is sort of irrelevant.   Some people have loved the unusually persistent rain.

And living out here, its the best overall gauge of the weather for me.    You tell me that a month had 150% of normal rainfall and it came on two days... then I am pretty sure I would have enjoyed that month.    Tell we had 75% of normal rainfall on 28 days and its the opposite.   But that is just me. 

Total rain is obviously a very important statistic too.   

 

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

This is a completely silly post.   It rained here this morning as well... and it was a gorgeous afternoon.   I am well aware that not every day with rain is cloudy and wet all day.   And yet the rain has been off the charts persistent since April out here... in terms of historical context.

It is a very interesting statistic to track... particularly out here where troughiness almost always means some rain.    Looking at the stats for the Snoqualmie Valley... you can clearly see rainy patterns and dry patterns.   We don't just get lucky with a week of dry weather while its raining everywhere else.  And even out here its a 50/50 split on average over the course of the year.   It is by far the most important statistic for me in terms of judging a month or a season.   Not even close.    And it has been absolutely remarkable in terms of persistent since the March 29th.   

And thanks for bringing this up again!   I am sure everyone wants to hear about it.    I have never said every day with measurable rain is miserable. 

You answered it yourself! ;)

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Cold airmass coming in the next few days, if we get any decent clearing Monday or Tuesday night we could see some upper 30s. 

Looks like a nice run of chilly mins coming up this week.  I really like that kind of thing.

All in all tonight's GFS looks great.  Some nice cool NW wind onshore flow during week two.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I hope by this you mean a warm day. Because if that's literal, then my god.

And yes, nothing about this Spring changes our trajectory. It is a blip, and would have been a blip even if 1961-90 climo had persisted.

IMO the worst period for our climate came in the 1999 through 2006 period.  Since then the winters have been quite a bit colder.  The only season that really has the climb you are talking about is summer.  We'll see where we're at 10 years from now.  My guess is the summers will actually come down a little from what we've been seeing.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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21 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

 

You answered it yourself! ;)

But feelings about the weather is not the point of the stat.   I love stealing nice days in a rainy streak.  Its not a misleading statistic and its something I always track.  The pendulum is really set now to swing the other way.   Hopefully it works out. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Cameras can capture sunsets just fine. Unskilled photographers sometimes have trouble, though. 😉

The challenge is the extreme dynamic range. Basically, expose for the highlights and then make adjustments in an editing program like Photoshop to bring up the shadows.

Some of our forum members are superb photographers and can probably tell you more.

797687AB-6840-485D-A78E-FB82C41D9DB0.thumb.jpeg.08fb59d918ec9ce2800cc99d181d24ad.jpeg

Here’s one I took in February 2019 that didn’t have as much of a dynamic range. Didn’t require any editing but it is one of the most spectacular sunsets I have seen.

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Looks like the GFS finally came to its senses.

65/56 day here. Mostly dry with some scattered showers. Thursday evening through yesterday were soakers though. A little over 3” for the month. So nice to see. Yesterday put up a 68/57 here with over an inch and a half of rainfall, mainly later in the day.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But feelings about the weather is not the point of the stat.   I love stealing nice days in a rainy streak.  Its not a misleading statistic and its something I always track.  The pendulum is really set now to swing the other way.   Hopefully it works out. 

I'll be interested to see if the recent extreme wetness has a flip side over the next year.  It's not at all unusual to go from one extreme to the other.  I would love to see the SW filp to wet while we end up drier.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'll be interested to see if the recent extreme wetness has a flip side over the next year.  It's not at all unusual to go from one extreme to the other.  I would love to see the SW filp to wet while we end up drier.

Yeah... a West Coast flip is so incredibly overdue now.    Can't wait.    

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll be interested to see if the recent extreme wetness has a flip side over the next year.  It's not at all unusual to go from one extreme to the other.  I would love to see the SW filp to wet while we end up drier.

Winters that are very cold in WA/OR are often very wet in CA thanks to the suppressed jet - which we hopefully see this winter. January 2017 was an excellent example.

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I would note however that 2016-17 was a very wet water year, and the last good one in California. Looking at how this spring has played out, and where we are with ENSO, it seems unlikely we see a dry winter/early spring next year. We probably have a good shot at a dry early fall. Just looking at my early analog years, there is probably a lot more potential for a very wet water year in 2022-23, but it could be focused a little more south, that is probably a good bet. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll be interested to see if the recent extreme wetness has a flip side over the next year.  It's not at all unusual to go from one extreme to the other.  I would love to see the SW filp to wet while we end up drier.

Looking at where we are with ENSO, PDO and other indices the observed weather we have seen this spring makes a lot of sense. I feel like we'll look back at 2021-22 as underrated in the moment, we've really seen a very interesting weather year... We could be heading for a decade like the 30s. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

FYI...

 

KGEG us still below normal on rainfall for the year. just because the westside is wet doesn't mean we all don't need more rain

Good reminder!

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 hours ago, Doiinko said:

Yeah all of the vegetation is really lush right now.

The hills where I am are so green with differing shades. It feels like I'm in the westside or perhaps in Oregon with the color variation. Compared to last year, everything was brown and on 🔥 starting about three weeks from now in 2021. 

The cottonwood pollen is bad today. My brother in law and his family are visiting from Camas for my son's early bday celebration this weekend. Cottonwood was bad enough that his wife had to stay in the car for an hour with the air on. We went to dinner in Lewiston where it was raining at a decent rate and it seemed to clear the air at least temporarily.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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The pattern by next Sunday looks so quiet on the 00Z ECMWF.    It's been way too long with a roaring jet stream across the Pacific... nice to start seeing something different.  

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5683200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

797687AB-6840-485D-A78E-FB82C41D9DB0.thumb.jpeg.08fb59d918ec9ce2800cc99d181d24ad.jpeg

Here’s one I took in February 2019 that didn’t have as much of a dynamic range. Didn’t require any editing but it is one of the most spectacular sunsets I have seen.

We get sunsets like this quite a bit in California.

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